even those people who spent hundreds of pages discussing TA trying to predict btc price are now mostly gone.
I use TA and I always predicted a bear market. But to be fair by bearish didn't come from TA, it came from just observing this scene. And reminded me of the penny stock scene |
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It is trading, dude. Short, Cover and Long. Why you be a beartard?
Cause it's easier to follow trend than trade against it |
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 I estimate the risk at around $3M give or take a little. edit: The BTC swaps are in a dangerous predicament. Mainly that big spike near the low. A good bounce and we could be in for a ride. When fewcoins made all those claims about a short squeeze over the last couple of weeks, I did a similar analisys on BTC swaps and came to the conclusion there was only about 2300 BTC worth of risk at the time. Not much for a squeeze. So does the dramatic recent spike in active BTC swaps create the opportunity for a manipulator to profit by triggering a short squeeze? You guys are assholes. Is the price gonna go up or down? He's saying a sudden spike can trigger a short squeeze cause the BTC swap is high. USD swap is low or normal so no fear of margin call. This bear has to do your trading for you? Sheesh. I don't how accurate it is to analyze bitfinex. Are they a big exchange. Do they lead or follow? |
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I'm interested in these articles you're mentioning from a few years ago, do you have any links discussing them ?
No problem. So it turns out this was actually from about 20 years ago but I was using it about 5 years ago for work on my research papers. Here's the link regarding the Nobel prize: http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1994/press.htmlI know there's further reference of the topic applied to restructuring executive pay but can't find it right now. You talking about Nash Equilibrium? I don't see how Bitcoin fits into that. First of all it has to be 'game'. What game is Bitcoin playing and who are the players? Trying to dominate the currency space and overtake majors USD, EUR, JPY and GBP? Well it's nil impossible to win because those fiats are creatures of the state. Well, the game part is easy. Economics is a game. Business is a game. Bitcoin is a game. Just about anything can be a game. But as game applies in the Nash Equilibrium, the game is how well or how poorly an equilibrium of value to cost is achieved. The game of any competitive market is to prosper and bictoin is a competitive market. So the goal of anyone interested in bitcoin is to accumulate as many coins as possible. Where the Nash Equilibrium comes into play is based on how fair the game is played. Factors to consider: transaction fees, transparency, anonymity, .. okay the list can go on. So, the point of my question is this: Given the similarities and differences of Bitcoin to Fiat or any currency, how could bitcoin differ or be leveraged in such a way that it is managed in a far more responsible way than paper, gold, or what have you. No it's not a game in the way that you use Nash equilibrium. The way Nash does it is he makes a matrix of number of players and pay off scenario. When there are huge number of players with huge number off payoffs it's really not possible to use Nash equilibrium. You can do it if there's a few player and few payoff scenarios. The classic 101 game theory example is prisoners dilemma I think you should just research what game theory and how to calculate Nash equilibrium first. It's probably not what you think |
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He tweeted on Jan 2 that the fund was $42.35M. That's when price was around $315. Lost $4.7M in less than 2 days. Man it sucks to be investing in that fund w no way to close the position. |
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Of course it's manipulated. We've all known that for a few years. But I don't think it's the exchanges...
Not possible. They are, at a minimum, complicit. There's no transparency. They'd be fools not to be! If you believe this then why the hell you mess w Bitcoin? You can't win a rigged game |
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is it better to buy back now?
No wait till resistance is broken. IMO it's gonna get ugly. If this gets rejected at 300 again then short the mofo. Then put a stop at 300 and trail it down |
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^ Lol, I'm afraid your pinup girl just ain't into you, and certainly wouldn't be seen with you in public  " Qestion:
What do you think of the libertarian movement?
Ayn Rand:
All kinds of people today call themselves “libertarians,” especially something calling itself the New Right, which consists of hippies who are anarchists instead of leftist collectivists; but anarchists are collectivists. Capitalism is the one system that requires absolute objective law, yet libertarians combine capitalism and anarchism. That’s worse than anything the New Left has proposed. It’s a mockery of philosophy and ideology. They sling slogans and try to ride on two bandwagons. They want to be hippies, but don’t want to preach collectivism because those jobs are already taken. But anarchism is a logical outgrowth of the anti-intellectual side of collectivism. I could deal with a Marxist with a greater chance of reaching some kind of understanding, and with much greater respect. Anarchists are the scum of the intellectual world of the Left, which has given them up. So the Right picks up another leftist discard. That’s the libertarian movement."--Ayn Rand Answers: The Best of Her Q&A, ed. Robert Mayhew To be honest, I'm quite new to Ayn Rand, I'm just now finishing Atlas Shrugged and haven't red anything else yet. But I find myself agreeing to nearly 100% of the message in that book, and lot's of my favorite anarcho-capitalists like Jeff Berwick and Stefan Molyneux like her a lot. I've also heard though, that anarcho-capitalism and objectivism isn't compatible although I haven't explored why yet. What's your take on that, what's the fundamental difference? "Capitalism is the one system that requires absolute objective law, yet libertarians combine capitalism and anarchism." Well, who says there can't be laws in an anarchistic system? Anarchism means "no rulers" which is not the same as no laws. Laws can be privatized, there's whole books written about that. More interestingly, contracts made in the blockchain can be created so they can't be broken. They can be made so if a certain criteria is fullfilled, btc automatically moves from one wallet to another, making law redundant in many cases! The law is in the code and enforces itself! When Ayn Rand was still around, there was no way anybody could have predicted such a revolutionary technology. Maybe she would change her stance if she were alive today. Are you reading what you are writing? Laws are enforced by the state. You can have contracts but it's useless unless it can be enforced. Private judicial system? Yeah right. Good luck trying to sue a mega corporation who fucked you over |
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they would find it hard to buy up the entire supply. Impossible. But they could easilly create absolute chaos in the marketplace and exchanges. The market cap of Bitcoin is so small. I mean, hey Zuckerberg is personally worth what 5 times the value of all Bitcoins... It's really not that big of a currency pool. These banks could simply buy up as retailers dump - which they will - they have to... and then flash crash... rinse repeat.
To them the losses would be nothing, chump change so to speak. And this tactic would make the bitcoin markets toxic to any sane investor. People would flock.
It is prudent to consider what you are saying. But, how do you respond to this counterargument: Sure, fluctuating prices will scare away investors; but fluctuating prices won't kill bitcoin. Merchants are shielded from price fluctuations by converting straight to USD. Merchants will continue to adopt bitcoin because 1) it's easy 2) they get their USD faster 3) they save on credit card fees. Once they have 1-2 years experience and feel more comfy with bitcoin, they will begin to provide consumer incentives in one form or another. That's when consumer adoption will occur. And consumers can be protected from price fluctuations by converting their USD to BTC at the time of purchase. Summary: Price fluctuations may be scary as shit to an investor, but price fluctuations won't kill bitcoin as a payment system. And why would any consumers use Bitcoin as a currency if the price is so volatile? |
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Then I guess it becomes a close end fund instead of traditional fund - people who wants to cash out needs to sell it on secondary market
If you mean by "close end fund" that they cannot take $$$ to create new BIT shares, you'd be (i'm 98% sure) incorrect. I guess that he means that there will be no more liquidations (redemptions): the only way to get $$$ out will be to sell your shares at OTCQX to someone who would rather buy them instead of BTC. Pink sheets huh? Bitcoin has become exactly like a penny stock. OTCQX is a higher-class version of "pink sheets", with some very big, solid companies. --------------------------------------- Situation by 01/Sep/2013* Whales had 135 k BTC that cost them next to nothing * Fund had nothing * Clients had 67.5 M $ --------------------------------------- Happened since then:* Clients bought 1.35 M shares from fund at average price of 50 $/share (say) * Fund bought 135 k BTC from whales, at average price of 500 $/BTC (say) ---------------------------------------- Situation today:* Whales have 67.5 M $, no BTC * Fund has 135 kBTC worth 37.8 M $ today * Clients have 1.35 M shares of fund, nominal value 37.8 M $ today --------------------------------------- The number 500 $/BTC for the average buying price of the 135 k BTC is guessed, but could be easily computed from the buy dates and amounts, and a price table. The 67.5 M $ that the clients put into the fund will never come out again. They became the net and definitive profit of the Whales. If the fund does not allow redemption anymore, the only hope of the clients to get their money back is that the BTC price will recover and they will be able to sell their shares to other clients, and so on. So the clients will be passing the 67.5 M$ loss to each other forever. Sort of like this: http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/bitcoin/2014-02-17-HowToMakeSomeEasyMoney.htmlThanks for the explanation. I thought I saw a link to Silberts tweet earlier on r/button saying something to the affect that the drop was "entertaining". I suppose the trust makes money on fees so he could care less if his client eats the losses. They can't even withdraw their money now til it's on OTCQX?? |
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How can there be so many people be shorting at this price?  Because new lows |
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Only noobs hold their losses too long.
If you're trading on margin, then yes, I'd agree. If you're holding on to a position in the most volatile asset class the world has ever seen for the last 4 years, and seen the market go from 2 dollars to 1200 and back again now to 300, maybe you'd have a different perspective? Depends when you started the position. I would not hold a long position that is making new lows. That is suicide. If you day trade naked options you get 100-400% moves like everyday. Tough as nails to trade unless you are super discipline w cutting losses and riding winners. That and position sizing and risk management. That's the tough thing though. People are more psychologically prone to cut winners and ride losses. It takes a lot of experience to do the opposite These naked options sound... exotic. Where can you trade these naked options on bitcoin? There are no options on Bitcoin. Just trade Options on equities. Lots of liquidity in the big names like AAPL, TSLA, FB etc.. But be careful of slippage. I like trading TSLA but honestly I'd rather use margin than options because delta 1, no theta and less slippage. However, I sell options on Fridays a lot because speed of decay If you want to day trade I highly recommend looking up Opening Range Breakout method or sometimes called ACD method |
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I'm really surprised to see btc under 300.I told myself that I was happy with my long term holdings, but I am so tempted to log on to coinbase and buy 3 or 4 more...
Don't do it man. Breaking Livermore's rule of trading #12: never average losses |
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Only noobs hold their losses too long.
If you're trading on margin, then yes, I'd agree. If you're holding on to a position in the most volatile asset class the world has ever seen for the last 4 years, and seen the market go from 2 dollars to 1200 and back again now to 300, maybe you'd have a different perspective? Depends when you started the position. I would not hold a long position that is making new lows. That is suicide. If you day trade naked options you get 100-400% moves like everyday. Tough as nails to trade unless you are super discipline w cutting losses and riding winners. That and position sizing and risk management. That's the tough thing though. People are more psychologically prone to cut winners and ride losses. It takes a lot of experience to do the opposite |
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You can play for fiat, or you can play for keeps.
The choice is yours.
What you never heard of stops? Terrible trading advice whoever told you that Right, I guess that Jesse Livermore is just some idiot who had never traded before  Btw, here's some first hand experience of how well stops work in bitcoin land where the exchange operators know exactly where your stops are placed.
Stop losses? LOL!
I deposit fiat to the exchange. I withdraw bitcoins to cold storage. Then I wait.
I tried using stop losses. Once I put one on really low and the price briefly spiked down to half a cent below my stop loss, then shot straight back up to the moon again.  You can start a new position. Only noobs hold their losses too long. Then they get deep in the red they get afraid to take a loss and hope the price comes back up. That's how bag holders are born. Trust me I've done this like first 2 years when I first started trading. Never fall in love with your trades. Better to stop out out and take a small jab to the chin than hold on til your trade blows up |
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Then I guess it becomes a close end fund instead of traditional fund - people who wants to cash out needs to sell it on secondary market
If you mean by "close end fund" that they cannot take $$$ to create new BIT shares, you'd be (i'm 98% sure) incorrect. I guess that he means that there will be no more liquidations (redemptions): the only way to get $$$ out will be to sell your shares at OTCQX to someone who would rather buy them instead of BTC. Pink sheets huh? Bitcoin has become exactly like a penny stock. |
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Bahahaha thanks for the laughs kid.
How will you double 14 times without leveraging?
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Sold at $1000 which is making me feel pretty happy now  I would not be happy selling bitcoin at any price. It's probably one of the most valuable commodities mankind has ever created. If you just hoard though they've not really got any value at all. What would you do with them other than buy and sell? Let the boy lose his pants. Then maybe he'll learn a thing or two |
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Looks like it has leveled out for now but if you look at the 1w charts its obvious Bitcoin is going to continue its downward spiral below $272.
Bitcoin value has come back to roost folks...get used to it.
If your not all fiat right now you will miss the reset when it hits single digits before starting the next bubble.
Personally, I would be more afraid to be all fiat at this point. I have a position in this market and I will not be shaken out by panic moves. It reminds me of something I once read, I think it went something like this: "My dear boy," said old Partridge, in great distress "my dear boy, if I sold that stock now I'd lose my position; and then where would I be?" My point is this, we are all just playing a game, trying to get more of what the other players have. You can play for fiat, or you can play for keeps. The choice is yours. What you never heard of stops? Terrible trading advice whoever told you that |
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