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17461  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: July 18, 2012, 02:51:29 AM
44K staggered wall makes an appearance

i wana see this thing get sold into
17462  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where else can the price go (in the long term) but up? on: July 18, 2012, 02:44:26 AM

Many things can go wrong for bitcoin:

    - some large govt makes makes it illegal (eg US, China, EU)
    - exploit in protocol (unlikely)
    - exploit in deployed code (likely)
    - a better (more features) coin appears that makes people switch
    - another GOX security breach
    - SR gets taken down by the fed
    - 51% attack
    - coordinated cyberwarfare by funded opponent (governments).
    - people finally discover how hard it is to hold on to their coins in face of determined hackers
      (i.e. not the script kiddie level hacks we've seen so far), but stuff at the level of stuxnet
 
etc ...

The future is unpredictable.
By definition.


I think you forgot the most important one. People get bored, sell the btc, and go do other things.
Price of btc falls and this miniscule group of people keep proclaiming btc will go big this year.

LOL my father said at 6 point crazy:  "i will buy again, when it comes back down"  i told him "ya i really dont see that happening" he says "Ya ya people will get board and sell soon."

Right....

17463  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where else can the price go (in the long term) but up? on: July 18, 2012, 02:14:17 AM
I think that last years $31 is very unlikely to be bitcoins all time high.

This much is a mathematical certainty because of the inflation on fiat. The question is will it get back to $31 in 2011 value (the silver parity proposal is interesting in that regard)? I do think so and agree it will be within the next 4 years.

Certainty?


Certainty can be defined as either: perfect knowledge that has total security from error, or; the mental state of being without doubt.

I have to agree... if the dollar keeps losing value bitcoin will go up.

you dont think so?

actually one could argue that future fiat inflation is already calculated into today's price

IMO, no its not.

1 btc = 8$ of value
1btc != 8$ of value 4 years from now

the market wont look that far ahead.
17464  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: July 18, 2012, 01:56:24 AM
aaah, another drop Sad

why the hell didn't we go to $10?! Wink

We are sticking to the game plan
17465  Economy / Speculation / [Daily Speculation Poll] :: Aye Aye Captain on: July 18, 2012, 01:31:40 AM

BTC
17466  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: July 18, 2012, 01:02:06 AM
17467  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: July 18, 2012, 12:49:20 AM
DING DING DING
     9$
17468  Economy / Speculation / Re: #bitcoin IRC log: A pirate leads a flock of sheep over a cliff. on: July 17, 2012, 09:49:16 PM
Pirate's announcement of interest rates cut for August 1st and beyond tells me that his profit margin is either getting diminished or he wants to up his profit margin to have more "pull" in the market.

Either way these next 6 weeks should be interesting in bitcoin price terms.

I say at the end of August we will have hit $12-$15/bitcoin.

I'll sell a bunch to you today for $11.  All that profit will be yours!

Where did I say I wanted to buy at $11?

How about this I'll accept your offer in October okay? Let's say Halloween (October 31st). I'll buy 50 BTC at $11 each on that day from you.

Deal?

Chicken?

Troll?

Chicken Troll?

 Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

I'll accept that $11 /per offer for October 31st. The coins will be waiting on you. You can pay now if you'd like (in full or a partial payment of 25%) and I'll hold on to them for you until that date. I can even find someone to escrow the coins until then if you would like.

and that's how bitcoin futures were born  Cheesy
17469  Economy / Speculation / Re: #bitcoin IRC log: A pirate leads a flock of sheep over a cliff. on: July 17, 2012, 09:05:28 PM
Weather pirtate is about to get short squeezed

or

Hes trying to keep the price stable, to make bitcoin more attractive to new comers


They're Both Bullish signs  Grin


17470  Economy / Speculation / Re: #bitcoin IRC log: A pirate leads a flock of sheep over a cliff. on: July 17, 2012, 08:37:35 PM
pirateat40 has taken a stand 9$ is the top, and hes got to convince everyone to fallow him back down bellow 7

Not really. If anyone understands that a growing market can't be manipulated down in perpetuity, it's Pirate. The objective is not to keep forcing prices lower, only to stabilize. The previous weeks were punctuated by an early rise, then leveling off for the duration. That kind of stable growth is critical for businesses to be comfortable with using Bitcoin as a primary financial service.

The market is already to big for him to control it.

Again, there is no need to control it - only influence. This is a stabilization effort by a heavily invested party attempting to maintain the quality of the investment. What's happening is similar to gold, only gold is viewed as a limiting factor by financial industry participants whereas Bitcoin is viewed as a liberating factor by the equivalents.

JPM is the traditional financial giant, viewing gold as a mere trading instrument that limits its flexibility. Pirate is a Bitcoin financial giant, seeing the system as a vehicle that enhances economic potential.

This requires a perspective shift - the old paradigms do not properly apply here.

Meh, when push comes to shove is Pirate (or his heavily invested party ) really going to take money out of their pocket to keep the price "stable"?

jump to 9.50, back down to 7.50, and now 8.50 ya really good job stabilizing the market.
17471  Economy / Speculation / Re: #bitcoin IRC log: A pirate leads a flock of sheep over a cliff. on: July 17, 2012, 07:53:59 PM
pirateat40 has taken a stand 9$ is the top, and hes got to convince everyone to fallow him back down bellow 7

Are you sure?  People thought the sun orbited the earth at one point, until they improved their mental model.

As pirate said on irc, it was the very short term price increase ("bubble") forming with the run up to btcusd=9.5 that triggered his correction.

The real question you should ask is, who was the pumper driving the price up, causing the panic buying?

(wasn't me.)

it was himself!

he pulled out all his asks, bought it up, only to sell into the new bids. ( I'm just guessing, but post above would seem to agree with me )

The real question is who will you sell your coins too? sell to the bull now and hop onto the pirate ship if you want to.
17472  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: July 17, 2012, 07:29:58 PM
now think for a minute how much would 10millions coins (all the bitcoin) go for on this market

100million, or 1 billion?  Tongue

There is no such thing as buying the whole market. Nobody has that much money because the price will just go up infinitely. I certainly wouldn't be selling all my coins no matter what the price is and I think that there would be others who would keep some as well.

ya that's what i was fishing for
17473  Economy / Speculation / Re: #bitcoin IRC log: A pirate leads a flock of sheep over a cliff. on: July 17, 2012, 07:19:19 PM
exactly, IMO pirateat40 is stuck in an impossible situation

idk I'm most likely wrong, but what he did yesterday shows us his game plan and we see that its not a good plan

Can you clarify?


pirateat40 has taken a stand 9$ is the top, and hes got to convince everyone to fallow him back down bellow 7

even if he gets it going down (even below 6!), he will need to buy back. He'll be trying to buy back on the cheap along with everyone else,  and who's going to sell us all these coins?

maybe hes been trying to keep the price down ever since 6 point crazy....

I hope he is able to push the price down, I would love to buy another few hundred coins below 6 ( I have a few friends that want in if it goes back down Tongue )

The liquidity on the ask side simply isn't their for him to buy back on the cheep. i might get lucky and be able to grab a few hundred  tho  Grin
17474  Economy / Speculation / Re: #bitcoin IRC log: A pirate leads a flock of sheep over a cliff. on: July 17, 2012, 06:55:07 PM
Here's a graph of the action with some of the pirateat40 comments from the IRC log correlated approximately.

http://i45.tinypic.com/2ngzj47.png

If what pirate was saying is true, he's feeding a stronger bull.

exactly, IMO pirateat40 is stuck in an impossible situation

idk I'm most likely wrong, but what he did yesterday shows us his game plan and we see that its not a good plan

 

17475  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin soaring, highest I've seen it since last year while it was decreasing on: July 17, 2012, 06:48:28 PM
dont forget bitcoin has created a new market within its self (call it speculation market), as the bitcoin grows due to new demand for example more users on SR. the speculation market grows as well.

The next few weeks will be epic! 

OH JOY Cheesy

17476  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: July 17, 2012, 06:31:43 PM
It's silly that a few USD 100K can push the price of bitcoin around by 10+% or so on a single day. Just shows how small and undeveloped this market is.
Why is that "silly"?

"A few USD 100k" is a lot of money in the bitcoin community, because unlike fiat, large quantities of bitcoin credit cannot be magicly created out of thin air. Thats what gives bitcoin value, and why your corrupt fiat money is worthless toilet paper.



+1

now think for a minute how much would 10millions coins (all the bitcoin) go for on this market

100million, or 1 billion?  Tongue
17477  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: July 17, 2012, 06:27:13 AM
Bid wall has disappeared

<pirateat40> well guys, i think i've scared off the sellers. I'm tired and going to call it night and let the bots play.  IRCFrEAK, im pulling the my wall and dumping.... Get ready!

XD I'm seeing now.

I was caught sleeping with the IRC on the iPhone (no history), what have been doing pirateat40?

going nuts?  hence the weird price swings lately
17478  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally!!!!! on: July 17, 2012, 06:01:26 AM
Mmm, like I thought, there's nothing real behind this rally.  Skyrocketing to $9.50, then instantly plunging to $7.60.  Yeah, that's rational.  The last time we saw action like this was someone playing with stolen bitcoins.  Bitconica got cleaned out (again) recently, so who knows?  This forum being inaccessible for a few hours during the market turmoil also seems a little too convenient.

Don't let the excitement of $9+ get to your heads, we could be in the low $7s in an instant.  Don't let the bid 'walls' fool you either.

the bid wall is real, just watch it get sold into...  (lucky Manipulator about to get a fuck load of coins)

all you guys that think the price is all smoke a minors, you should sell now, if it is all smoke a minors then you have nothing to worry about  Kiss
17479  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally!!!!! on: July 17, 2012, 05:50:45 AM
I really want to say that Pirate is behind a lot of the chaos today.

he got the price to move up today only to sell out, and hoped for some panic... problem is  no one is playing with him, we just keep on buying  Wink
17480  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: July 17, 2012, 05:49:10 AM
it went from a battle, and now its flat out war!

Bull vs Bear

Pick your side
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