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81  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 343 on: September 29, 2021, 12:20:57 AM
Umito's bids will not be accepted this round. Auction ended, final result:
Slots mBTC/Slot Person
3 32* DNL
1 30* Baserank
3 30* Panxora_COO
2 22  Hhampuz
* = price paid will be reduced due to the price flattening rule
82  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 343 on: September 28, 2021, 05:44:55 PM
Umito's bids will probably not be accepted, though I'm not 100% sure about this.

Current status if Umito's bids are rejected (most likely):
Slots mBTC/Slot Person
3 32* DNL
1 30* Baserank
3 30* Panxora_COO
2 22  Hhampuz
* = price paid would be reduced due to the price flattening rule (this does not affect the auction process)


Current status if Umito's bids are accepted:
Slots mBTC/Slot Person
3 32 DNL
3 32 Umito
1 30 Baserank
2 30 Panxora_COO


The auction continues.
83  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 343 on: September 27, 2021, 04:35:10 PM
Note that I have pre-approved DNL and Baserank to bid, and Umito will probably be approved.

1 @ 15mBTC

Bids must be evenly divisible by 2 mBTC. When people break this rule, I always round their bid down to the next valid bid.

Current auction status:
Slots mBTC/Slot Person
3 16 Panxora_COO
5 14 Hhampuz
1 14 Baserank


The auction continues.
84  Other / Meta / Top reporters on: September 20, 2021, 11:26:10 AM
These are the people who have the most good reports over the last year:
Code:
+-------------------------+--------------+
| User                    | Good reports |
+-------------------------+--------------+
| actmyname               |        38580 |
| Ratimov                 |        33267 |
| eaLiTy                  |        13852 |
| GazetaBitcoin           |         4750 |
| hosseinimr93            |         3800 |
| friends1980             |         3090 |
| DaveF                   |         2744 |
| lovesmayfamilis         |         1665 |
| Rikafip                 |         1548 |
| Csmiami                 |         1529 |
| Mbitr                   |         1458 |
| miner29                 |         1403 |
| xandry                  |         1225 |
| mk4                     |         1173 |
| dkbit98                 |         1165 |
| suchmoon                |         1162 |
| Barcode_                |         1010 |
| Lucius                  |          972 |
| xhomerx10               |          852 |
| LoyceV                  |          834 |
| DdmrDdmr                |          832 |
| sandy-is-fine           |          811 |
| OmegaStarScream         |          769 |
| NotFuzzyWarm            |          724 |
| Xal0lex                 |          698 |
| pooya87                 |          677 |
| SiNeReiNZzz             |          595 |
| DroomieChikito          |          580 |
| vareole                 |          569 |
| UserU                   |          560 |
| Lafu                    |          550 |
| odolvlobo               |          546 |
| UnclWish                |          511 |
| alucard20724            |          504 |
| Charles-Tim             |          504 |
| RickDeckard             |          447 |
| colires                 |          435 |
| ETFbitcoin              |          425 |
| bluspirit               |          418 |
| LeGaulois               |          364 |
+-------------------------+--------------+

Thank you to all reporters, especially the top reporters actmyname, Ratimov, and eaLiTy! We couldn't do it without you.
85  Other / Meta / Re: 9 posts by 0 user deleted? on: September 05, 2021, 11:32:11 AM
The bug exists because old deleted posts are eventually removed from the database, and I didn't account for this when implementing the selfmod stats, so the data on which posts were created by which users is missing for old deleted posts.

The message will now say something like "(9 posts by 1+ users with 3 merit deleted.)". The first and third numbers are accurate, but the second number is imprecise; the second number will actually be "distinct users whose posts were selfmod-deleted and whose deleted posts are not very old and therefore still happen to be in the database." I could add more logging so that an accurate count could still be determined, but I don't think that it's very important to give the absolute correct number here, especially since any recent selfmod activity will still increase the count.
86  Other / Meta / Re: DT update log on: September 03, 2021, 06:52:35 PM
This month 133 users were eligible.

Old:
Code:
theymos
HostFat
OgNasty
malevolent
qwk
fronti
mprep
Dabs
Foxpup
Carlton Banks
philipma1957
Cyrus
Welsh
ibminer
Mitchell
Timelord2067
jeremypwr
EFS
dbshck
greenplastic
stompix
hilariousandco
Avirunes
mindrust
buckrogers
willi9974
JayJuanGee
achow101
nutildah
irfan_pak10
BitcoinPenny
yahoo62278
LFC_Bitcoin
o_solo_miner
sandy-is-fine
Real-Duke
klarki
LoyceV
actmyname
LeGaulois
DarkStar_
TryNinja
bob123
eddie13
johhnyUA
ekiller
Jet Cash
condoras
bL4nkcode
Lafu
Coin_trader
Yatsan
HCP
finaleshot2016
crwth
Ale88
bobita
Vispilio
Baofeng
be.open
imhoneer
krogothmanhattan
JollyGood
RaltcoinsB
xenon131
roycilik
CryptopreneurBrainboss
El duderino_
KTChampions
Trofo
Steamtyme
Coin-1
icopress
GreatArkansas
o_e_l_e_o
logfiles
joniboini
Agrawas
Maus0728
TheBeardedBaby
tvplus006
coinlocket$
dkbit98
mole0815
asche
DdmrDdmr
cabalism13
morvillz7z
Husna QA
Bthd
fillippone
abhiseshakana
madnessteat
COOLCRYPTOVATOR
lovesmayfamilis
DireWolfM14
1miau
zasad@
Rikafip
bullrun2020bro

New:
Code:
HostFat
gmaxwell
phantastisch
OgNasty
malevolent
Balthazar
yxt
fronti
Dabs
Foxpup
Carlton Banks
philipma1957
babo
Cyrus
Welsh
Mitchell
vizique
Ticked
Timelord2067
jeremypwr
EFS
dbshck
greenplastic
stompix
hilariousandco
arulbero
Avirunes
mindrust
buckrogers
Buchi-88
achow101
DaveF
teeGUMES
examplens
nutildah
sapta
irfan_pak10
tmfp
BitcoinPenny
zazarb
LFC_Bitcoin
sandy-is-fine
Real-Duke
klarki
muslol67
The Pharmacist
LeGaulois
SFR10
TwitchySeal
phishead
TryNinja
johhnyUA
bL4nkcode
Coin_trader
HCP
finaleshot2016
crwth
webtricks
Ale88
bobita
be.open
krogothmanhattan
JollyGood
RaltcoinsB
El duderino_
PHI1618
KTChampions
Trofo
Steamtyme
icopress
bavicrypto
GreatArkansas
sheenshane
o_e_l_e_o
3meek
joniboini
Agrawas
Maus0728
TheBeardedBaby
coinlocket$
dkbit98
mole0815
witcher_sense
asche
DdmrDdmr
cabalism13
morvillz7z
Husna QA
Bthd
fillippone
abhiseshakana
madnessteat
COOLCRYPTOVATOR
lovesmayfamilis
TalkStar
YOSHIE
Ratimov
zasad@
Rikafip
bullrun2020bro
87  Economy / Auctions / Advertise on this forum - Round 343 on: September 01, 2021, 11:15:53 AM
The forum sells ad space in the area beneath the first post of every topic page. This income is used primarily to cover hosting costs and to pay moderators for their work (there are many moderators, so each moderator gets only a small amount -- moderators should be seen as volunteers, not employees). Any leftover amount is typically either saved for future expenses or otherwise reinvested into the forum or the ecosystem.

There are 10 total ad slots which are randomly rotated. So one ad slot has a one in ten chance of appearing. Nine of the slots are for sale here. Ads appear only on topic pages with more than one post. Hero/Legendary members, Donators, VIPs, and moderators have the ability to disable ads; these people don't increase the impression stats for your ads.

Design & ad restrictions

Ad text may not contain lies, misrepresentation, or inappropriate language. Ads may not link directly to any NSFW page. No ICOs[1], loggable mixers[2], banks, funds, or anything that a person can be said to "invest" in; I may very rarely make exceptions if you convince me that you are ultra legit, but don't count on it. Ads may be rejected for other reasons, and I may remove ads even after they are accepted.

See the ad design rules for info on designing forum ads.

When advertising a new service, you should always check with me in advance whether your service is OK. I will sometimes accept bids of people who don't do this, but such people are taking the risk of being rejected at the last minute. It's also a good idea for you to have me check your ad's HTML+CSS in advance, especially if this is your first time advertising.

Duration/timing

 - Ad slots won in this auction will run from noon October 7 (US Eastern time) to noon November 6. (30 days.)
 - This auction will end sometime between September 27 and September 30, but September 28 is most likely.
 - You must pay within 48 hours of the auction ending. Only Bitcoin is accepted. If you fail to pay in time, your ad slots may be resold, and in cases where I feel that you're acting in bad faith, I may even give you a negative trust rating.
 - You must send me a valid ad (ie. one not breaking any of the styling or other rules) before noon October 6. If you fail to send a valid ad in time, then the ad round will start without you, and you will be "burning time". You can still send an ad after the deadline, and usually this ad will be put up fairly quickly, but no particular timeline is guaranteed after the deadline.
 - If extended downtime or similar issues cause your ad not to be displayed for a long time, we generally give prorated refunds (USD-denominated) for the lost time, but this is not guaranteed.

Stats

Exact historical impression counts per slot:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstats

Info about the current ad slots:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adinfo

Auction rules

New members are likely to have their bids rejected unless they PM me first, telling me what they're going to advertise. New members might also be required to pay some amount in advance. Additionally, if you have never purchased forum ad space before, and it is not blatantly obvious what you're going to advertise, say what you're going to advertise in your first bid, or tell me in a PM.

Post your bids in this thread. Prices must be stated in mBTC per slot. (10 mBTC = 0.01 BTC.) You must state the maximum number of slots you want. When the auction ends, the highest bidders will have their slots filled until all nine slots are filled.

So if someone bids for 9 slots @ 50 mBTC and this is the highest bid, then he'll get all 9 slots. If the two highest bids are 9 slots @ 40 mBTC and 1 slot @ 50 mBTC, then the first person will get 8 slots and the second person will get 1 slot.

The notation "2 @ 50" means 2 slots for 50 mBTC each. Not 2 slots for 50 mBTC total.

- When you post a bid, the bids in your previous posts are considered to be automatically canceled. You can put multiple bids in one post, however, like "5 @ 10 and 1 @ 50".
- All bid prices must be evenly divisible by 2 mBTC.
- The bidding starts at 2 mBTC.
- The auction ends at an arbitrary time between September 27 and September 30. Times closer to 8:00AM September 28 (US Eastern time) are more likely.
- If two people bid at the same price, the person who bid first will have his slots filled first.

If these rules are confusing, look at some of the past forum ad auctions to see how it's done.

I reserve the right to reject bids, even days after the bid is made.

Price flattening

At the end of the auction, after the winning bids are all determined, I will do a "price flattening" operation. This has no effect on which bids actually win, but is instead just meant to make the prices actually paid by bidders more equal. For each bid, in order of lowest to greatest price/slot, I will reduce each bid's price/slot to the highest value which is equal to or only the minimum increment greater than the next-lower bid. This allows you to bid higher prices without worrying so much, but you still mustn't bid more than you're willing to pay. Example:

Code:
This:
Slots  mBTC/Slot  Person
    6      200       A
    1      160       B
    1       80       C
    1       80       D

Becomes:
Slots  mBTC/Slot  Person
    6      84       A [step 4: reduced to 82+2=84]
    1      82       B [step 3: reduced to 80+2=82]
    1      80       C [step 2: same as the next-lowest, unchanged]
    1      80       D [step 1: the lowest bid is always unchanged]

Payment, etc.

You must pay for your slots within 48 hours of receiving the payment address. Otherwise your slots may be sold to someone else, and I might even give you a negative trust rating. I will send you the payment information via forum PM from this account ("theymos", user ID 35) after announcing the auction results in this thread. You might receive false payment information from scammers pretending to be me. They might even have somewhat similar usernames. Be careful.

[1]: For the purposes of forum ads, an ICO is any token, altcoin, or other altcoin-like thing which meets any of the following criteria: it is primarily run/backed by a company; it is substantially, fundamentally centralized in either operation or coin distribution; or it is not yet possible for two unprivileged users of the system to send coins directly to each other in a P2P way. The intention here is to allow community efforts to advertise things like Litecoin, but not to allow ICO funding, even when the ICO is disguised in various ways.
[2]: A loggable mixer is a service marketed primarily for improving transaction privacy which accepts full custody of cryptocurrency for a time and has the technical ability to log where the cryptocurrency comes from and goes to (even if they promise not to log).
88  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 342 on: September 01, 2021, 11:11:19 AM
Auction ended, final result:
Slots mBTC/Slot Person
1 24 bitcarra
4 22 BK8.Official
2 22 Hashbon
2 20 Hhampuz
89  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 342 on: August 31, 2021, 10:02:47 AM
Hashbon's bids will be accepted. Current auction status:
Slots mBTC/Slot Person
2 18 Panxora_COO
4 18 BK8.Official
2 18 Hashbon
1 16 bitcarra


The auction continues.
90  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 342 on: August 30, 2021, 07:26:45 PM
2 @ 17 mbtc

Bids must be evenly divisible by 2 mBTC. When this rule is broken, I always round down to the next valid amount.

I need more info from Hashbon. His bids may or may not be accepted. I will post here when I know for sure.

1 @ 20mBTC

Bids from 1xbit will not be accepted.

Current auction status if Hashbon's bids are accepted:
Slots mBTC/Slot Person
2 18 Panxora_COO
1 16 bitcarra
4 16 Hhampuz
2 16 Hashbon


If his bids are not accepted:
Slots mBTC/Slot Person
2 18 Panxora_COO
1 16 bitcarra
4 16 Hhampuz
2 14 BK8.Official


The auction continues.
91  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 342 on: August 29, 2021, 11:49:58 AM
Current auction status:
Slots mBTC/Slot Person
3 14 Panxora_COO
5 12 Hhampuz
1 10 BK8.Official


The auction continues.
92  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 342 on: August 03, 2021, 10:17:20 PM
Note that starting with the round being bid on here, we might stop attempting to bypass adblockers.

Currently, the page is structured so that it's impossible for traditional adblockers based on CSS selectors to block the bitcointalk.org ad area in general (without also breaking the page). However:

 1) Adblockers can still block your ad in particular (as opposed to the ad area for all ads) if your ads are not designed in a very specific way, and advertisers almost never design their ads to be adblocker-resistant. In the past 2 years, I'd guess that there have been maybe one or two advertisers who designed their ads so that they couldn't easily be blocked. (If you're not sure whether your ad is adblocker-resistant, then it's not.)
 2) Some adblockers such as uBlock have now extended the traditional adblocker capabilities in a way which can only really be bypassed by constantly making manual changes to the page structure to counteract their filters whenever they update them.
 3) The current adblocker-bypassing capability requires mangling the page's HTML in a way which is maybe unfriendly to search engines and other automated tools.

Therefore, I think that stopping our attempt at bypassing adblockers will have little to no cost to advertisers (whose ads are probably already blocked, or are at least blockable), and continuing it is not worthwhile.
93  Economy / Auctions / Advertise on this forum - Round 342 on: August 03, 2021, 10:14:41 PM
The forum sells ad space in the area beneath the first post of every topic page. This income is used primarily to cover hosting costs and to pay moderators for their work (there are many moderators, so each moderator gets only a small amount -- moderators should be seen as volunteers, not employees). Any leftover amount is typically either saved for future expenses or otherwise reinvested into the forum or the ecosystem.

There are 10 total ad slots which are randomly rotated. So one ad slot has a one in ten chance of appearing. Nine of the slots are for sale here. Ads appear only on topic pages with more than one post. Hero/Legendary members, Donators, VIPs, and moderators have the ability to disable ads; these people don't increase the impression stats for your ads.

Design & ad restrictions

Ad text may not contain lies, misrepresentation, or inappropriate language. Ads may not link directly to any NSFW page. No ICOs[1], loggable mixers[2], banks, funds, or anything that a person can be said to "invest" in; I may very rarely make exceptions if you convince me that you are ultra legit, but don't count on it. Ads may be rejected for other reasons, and I may remove ads even after they are accepted.

See the ad design rules for info on designing forum ads.

When advertising a new service, you should always check with me in advance whether your service is OK. I will sometimes accept bids of people who don't do this, but such people are taking the risk of being rejected at the last minute. It's also a good idea for you to have me check your ad's HTML+CSS in advance, especially if this is your first time advertising.

Duration/timing

 - Ad slots won in this auction will run from noon September 9 (US Eastern time) to noon October 7. (28 days.)
 - This auction will end sometime between August 30 and September 3, but September 1 is most likely.
 - You must pay within 48 hours of the auction ending. Only Bitcoin is accepted. If you fail to pay in time, your ad slots may be resold, and in cases where I feel that you're acting in bad faith, I may even give you a negative trust rating.
 - You must send me a valid ad (ie. one not breaking any of the styling or other rules) before noon September 8. If you fail to send a valid ad in time, then the ad round will start without you, and you will be "burning time". You can still send an ad after the deadline, and usually this ad will be put up fairly quickly, but no particular timeline is guaranteed after the deadline.
 - If extended downtime or similar issues cause your ad not to be displayed for a long time, we generally give prorated refunds (USD-denominated) for the lost time, but this is not guaranteed.

Stats

Exact historical impression counts per slot:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstats

Info about the current ad slots:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adinfo

Auction rules

New members are likely to have their bids rejected unless they PM me first, telling me what they're going to advertise. New members might also be required to pay some amount in advance. Additionally, if you have never purchased forum ad space before, and it is not blatantly obvious what you're going to advertise, say what you're going to advertise in your first bid, or tell me in a PM.

Post your bids in this thread. Prices must be stated in mBTC per slot. (10 mBTC = 0.01 BTC.) You must state the maximum number of slots you want. When the auction ends, the highest bidders will have their slots filled until all nine slots are filled.

So if someone bids for 9 slots @ 50 mBTC and this is the highest bid, then he'll get all 9 slots. If the two highest bids are 9 slots @ 40 mBTC and 1 slot @ 50 mBTC, then the first person will get 8 slots and the second person will get 1 slot.

The notation "2 @ 50" means 2 slots for 50 mBTC each. Not 2 slots for 50 mBTC total.

- When you post a bid, the bids in your previous posts are considered to be automatically canceled. You can put multiple bids in one post, however, like "5 @ 10 and 1 @ 50".
- All bid prices must be evenly divisible by 2 mBTC.
- The bidding starts at 2 mBTC.
- The auction ends at an arbitrary time between August 30 and September 3. Times closer to 8:00AM September 1 (US Eastern time) are more likely.
- If two people bid at the same price, the person who bid first will have his slots filled first.

If these rules are confusing, look at some of the past forum ad auctions to see how it's done.

I reserve the right to reject bids, even days after the bid is made.

Price flattening

At the end of the auction, after the winning bids are all determined, I will do a "price flattening" operation. This has no effect on which bids actually win, but is instead just meant to make the prices actually paid by bidders more equal. For each bid, in order of lowest to greatest price/slot, I will reduce each bid's price/slot to the highest value which is equal to or only the minimum increment greater than the next-lower bid. This allows you to bid higher prices without worrying so much, but you still mustn't bid more than you're willing to pay. Example:

Code:
This:
Slots  mBTC/Slot  Person
    6      200       A
    1      160       B
    1       80       C
    1       80       D

Becomes:
Slots  mBTC/Slot  Person
    6      84       A [step 4: reduced to 82+2=84]
    1      82       B [step 3: reduced to 80+2=82]
    1      80       C [step 2: same as the next-lowest, unchanged]
    1      80       D [step 1: the lowest bid is always unchanged]

Payment, etc.

You must pay for your slots within 48 hours of receiving the payment address. Otherwise your slots may be sold to someone else, and I might even give you a negative trust rating. I will send you the payment information via forum PM from this account ("theymos", user ID 35) after announcing the auction results in this thread. You might receive false payment information from scammers pretending to be me. They might even have somewhat similar usernames. Be careful.

[1]: For the purposes of forum ads, an ICO is any token, altcoin, or other altcoin-like thing which meets any of the following criteria: it is primarily run/backed by a company; it is substantially, fundamentally centralized in either operation or coin distribution; or it is not yet possible for two unprivileged users of the system to send coins directly to each other in a P2P way. The intention here is to allow community efforts to advertise things like Litecoin, but not to allow ICO funding, even when the ICO is disguised in various ways.
[2]: A loggable mixer is a service marketed primarily for improving transaction privacy which accepts full custody of cryptocurrency for a time and has the technical ability to log where the cryptocurrency comes from and goes to (even if they promise not to log).
94  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 341 on: August 03, 2021, 10:09:25 PM
Auction ended, final result:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
5 6 Hhampuz
4 6 sportsbet.io
95  Other / Meta / Re: DT update log on: August 03, 2021, 11:45:08 AM
This month 123 users were eligible.

Old:
Code:
theymos
OgNasty
malevolent
qwk
fronti
mprep
Dabs
Foxpup
Carlton Banks
philipma1957
babo
Cyrus
peloso
Welsh
ibminer
Mitchell
Ticked
jeremypwr
EFS
dbshck
greenplastic
hilariousandco
Avirunes
buckrogers
Buchi-88
willi9974
JayJuanGee
teeGUMES
examplens
nutildah
minerjones
BitcoinPenny
yahoo62278
Royse777
zazarb
LFC_Bitcoin
SyGambler
klarki
muslol67
LoyceV
The Pharmacist
LeGaulois
DarkStar_
SFR10
TwitchySeal
TryNinja
bob123
johhnyUA
Jet Cash
condoras
Lafu
Yatsan
finaleshot2016
crwth
Ale88
duesoldi
bobita
Vispilio
be.open
imhoneer
krogothmanhattan
JollyGood
RaltcoinsB
CryptopreneurBrainboss
PHI1618
KTChampions
Trofo
Steamtyme
Coin-1
icopress
GreatArkansas
Veleor
sheenshane
o_e_l_e_o
logfiles
joniboini
Agrawas
TheBeardedBaby
tvplus006
MoxnatyShmel
coinlocket$
dkbit98
mole0815
witcher_sense
DdmrDdmr
cabalism13
Husna QA
Bthd
fillippone
abhiseshakana
madnessteat
COOLCRYPTOVATOR
lovesmayfamilis
DireWolfM14
TalkStar
YOSHIE
Ratimov
zasad@
Rikafip
bullrun2020bro

New:
Code:
theymos
HostFat
OgNasty
malevolent
qwk
fronti
mprep
Dabs
Foxpup
Carlton Banks
philipma1957
Cyrus
Welsh
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96  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 341 on: August 03, 2021, 11:07:55 AM
Murat informs me that he wishes to withdraw his bid.

Bids from BITCOINET.NET will not be accepted.

Bids must be evenly divisible by 2 mBTC/slot. If they are not, then I always round down to the next valid bid amount.

Current auction status:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
5 6 Hhampuz
2 4 tokyohd
2 4 cryptobradley


The auction continues.
97  Other / Meta / Re: Enable posting by paying fee on: July 19, 2021, 08:25:17 PM
Only abused IP ranges have to pay a fee. The fee is an anti-abuse measure, and it is not meant to be (and isn't) much of a source of revenue.

If any very-veteran members want to volunteer, I can give you the ability to whitelist users. (All Staff can already whitelist users, as well.) Perhaps then someone could create a topic like "List of email addresses for people who can whitelist you for free", which I could link-to on the evil fee page. However, these IPs have evil for a reason. If it was sufficient for them to just solve a captcha or something, I'd have them do that. Before whitelisting someone, you have to do something to be pretty sure that they're not evading a ban and just going to get banned again. You may get the impression from complaints on the forum that everyone hits the fee and it's never warranted, but this is selection bias: the fee is more rare, and the vast majority of accounts that hit it should not be whitelisted.
98  Economy / Speculation / Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! on: July 06, 2021, 10:21:23 PM
My record is pretty terrible on these, so I might as well give an extremely specific prediction and maximize how wrong I am.

July
USD monetary conditions are tightening substantially. Helicopter money programs are running out, M2 growth is slowing, and now the Fed is vacuuming up tons of excess money via reverse repo. This will suck money out of speculative areas such as BTC.

The US debt ceiling will be hit, and Congress won't do anything about it for a while, but this won't cause an immediate issue. CPI will be at expectations. Growth and employment will be worse than expectations. Stocks will be flat.

Some people are worried about the GBTC lockups expiring in the middle of this month, but I don't think that this will have much effect at all. If someone created GBTC shares just to arbitrage the premium, then they would've hedged their exposure to BTC; when they sell/redeem their GBTC shares, unwinding their hedge should make their net impact on the market neutral. If someone created GBTC shares because they wanted to be long BTC, then they knew the risks, they probably intended BTC to be a permanent part of their portfolio, and they're probably not going to exit their BTC position at a huge loss just because they now can.

BTC price: $30k
August
A wave of anti-crypto regulatory attention/action will be announced in the US and elsewhere with ransomware used as a fear tactic, but this will be too vague & insubstantial to have more than a short-term price impact. (Regulatory crackdowns could be very damaging to the ecosystem and hurt the BTC price long-term, but I don't think that anything like this will take effect or severely hurt sentiment before the end of the year.)

CPI will be historically high, but below expectations. Growth and employment will be worse than expectations. Stocks will be somewhat down.

BTC price: $28k
September
The US's inability to issue debt will cause some sort of moderate-severity market hiccup, such as a shortage of collateral causing rates to spike up. This will be mostly-resolved through some sort of emergency Fed action, but it will shake the market's confidence.

Simultaneously, as helicopter money programs have fully wound down and bank accounts will have gotten much more empty than previously, people will start realizing that they need money. But the job market will become tight very quickly due to the stampede of people looking for jobs and a significant slowdown in economic activity by this point. Because they need money, and also due to concern about the market hiccup mentioned in the previous paragraph, people will sell their liquid assets such as bonds, stocks, and BTC. As the market goes down from this, it will start a cycle of panic selling. There will be a 10% drop in the stock market and a 20% drop in the BTC price, though about half of this will be recovered in a couple of weeks.

The Fed will change policy to achieve maximally-loose monetary conditions; this is bullish for BTC.

From this point forward, CPI, growth, and employment will all be below expectations each month.

BTC price: $25k
October
The Democrats will enact a 15% global minimum corporate tax, increase the US corporate tax rate to 25%, and do Biden's proposed capital gains tax increase but with a rate of 28% instead of the proposed 43.4% and without Biden's proposed retroactivity. This is slightly negative for BTC (there will be some selling to front-run the tax increase), and very bad for growth stocks. Despite the prospect of infrastructure dollars, the stock market will on the whole drop 5% immediately and then start a slow downward slide lasting many months, but BTC will not drop much.

BTC will look attractive compared to other assets, especially to the many institutions who have already been eyeing it for a while but have been scared to dip their toes in. Like gold, it will be seen as a hedge against future low growth. Growth stocks also perform well in low-growth periods, but they will be negatively impacted by the global minimum corporate tax; BTC pays no corporate tax. Even though inflation will not actually be especially high at this point, there will still be a lot of fear of inflation due to all of the money-printing, and BTC will also be seen as a hedge against inflation. BTC will have low correlation with markets in at least the latest drop, and the price will look attractive. Robinhood will start to offer very attractive interest on BTC and other crypto holdings, similar to BlockFi - way more than you can get with any USD savings account. Due to all of these factors, BTC sentiment will turn very bullish.

BTC price: $40k
November
A BTC ETF will finally be approved. Pretty much everyone in the financial world thinks that this is long overdue, and the number of applicants keeps growing. A Bitcoin ETF would probably attract a billion dollars in assets within the following 12 months, and this direct inflow alongside the indirect boost in sentiment from the approval will add napalm to the already-hot BTC market.

CPI will fall below 2% as supply issues are mostly cleaned up and the worsening consumer balance sheet hurts demand. This hurts the narrative of buying BTC because of inflation, but this is only a small part of BTC's value proposition, and people will still worry about inflation even if it's low at the moment. Long-term, I think that the macro environment is favorable to BTC whenever wider economic growth is low, regardless of the level of inflation.

December 7 price: $72,046 (box 251)

(I might've gone a few boxes higher, but they were taken. This seems to be a popular price range!)
99  Other / Meta / Re: Question for admins: Add one more post in my thread maybe? on: July 06, 2021, 01:49:49 PM
Does this mean that you do not keep track of the content of deleted posts?

Deleted posts are at first just hidden from public view. To steal the ID from such a post, the deleted post is given a new ID. The deleted spam post in this case now has ID 57394364.

After about a year, deleted posts are moved off of the live database and into an archive database, and no longer occupy their original message ID in the live database. After about another year, deleted posts are deleted from the archive database as well, though they will probably still exist in offline backups.
100  Other / Meta / Re: Question for admins: Add one more post in my thread maybe? on: July 05, 2021, 08:01:09 PM
Done.

Posts are ordered in threads by message ID. What we do in these cases is that we repurpose the ID of a deleted post which lies in the appropriate range.

Yes, I'm following your topic since I`m also having a similar problem.

An ID isn't available right at the top. I added one as far up as possible.
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