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121  Economy / Reputation / Re: Goodbye, world! on: October 19, 2020, 01:50:51 PM
It's sad to see you go. Although there were various small bits of drama and conflict, you've been one of the most active and dedicated members of the community over the course of several years. (And if there's no conflict, then probably nothing is actually being accomplished.) I hope that you're not in any actual danger, and I hope that you will be successful in whatever you choose for your future.

I will request that theymos ban the "Lauda" account (u=101872)

Done. Lauda is banned in the same way as satoshi, such that it isn't possible to even log into the account anymore.
122  Economy / Auctions / Advertise on this forum - Round 322 on: October 15, 2020, 06:30:32 PM
The forum sells ad space in the area beneath the first post of every topic page. This income is used primarily to cover hosting costs and to pay moderators for their work (there are many moderators, so each moderator gets only a small amount -- moderators should be seen as volunteers, not employees). Any leftover amount is typically either saved for future expenses or otherwise reinvested into the forum or the ecosystem.

There are 10 total ad slots which are randomly rotated. So one ad slot has a one in ten chance of appearing. Nine of the slots are for sale here. Ads appear only on topic pages with more than one post. Hero/Legendary members, Donators, VIPs, and moderators have the ability to disable ads; these people don't increase the impression stats for your ads.

Design & ad restrictions

Ad text may not contain lies, misrepresentation, or inappropriate language. Ads may not link directly to any NSFW page. No ICOs[1], loggable mixers[2], banks, funds, or anything that a person can be said to "invest" in; I may very rarely make exceptions if you convince me that you are ultra legit, but don't count on it. Ads may be rejected for other reasons, and I may remove ads even after they are accepted.

See the ad design rules for info on designing forum ads.

When advertising a new service, you should always check with me in advance whether your service is OK. I will sometimes accept bids of people who don't do this, but such people are taking the risk of being rejected at the last minute. It's also a good idea for you to have me check your ad's HTML+CSS in advance, especially if this is your first time advertising.

Duration

- Your ads are guaranteed to be up for at least 7 days.
- I usually try to keep ads up for no more than 11 days.
- Sometimes ads might be up for longer, but hopefully no longer than 12 days. Even if past rounds sometimes lasted for long periods of time, you should not rely on this for your ads.

Stats

Exact historical impression counts per slot:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstats

Info about the current ad slots:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adinfo

Auction rules

New members are likely to have their bids rejected unless they PM me first, telling me what they're going to advertise. New members might also be required to pay some amount in advance. Additionally, if you have never purchased forum ad space before, and it is not blatantly obvious what you're going to advertise, say what you're going to advertise in your first bid, or tell me in a PM.

Post your bids in this thread. Prices must be stated in BTC per slot. You must state the maximum number of slots you want. When the auction ends, the highest bidders will have their slots filled until all nine slots are filled.

So if someone bids for 9 slots @ 0.5 BTC and this is the highest bid, then he'll get all 9 slots. If the two highest bids are 9 slots @ 0.4 BTC and 1 slot @ 0.5 BTC, then the first person will get 8 slots and the second person will get 1 slot.

The notation "2 @ 0.5" means 2 slots for 0.5 BTC each. Not 2 slots for 0.5 BTC total.

- When you post a bid, the bids in your previous posts are considered to be automatically canceled. You can put multiple bids in one post, however, like "5 @ 0.1 and 1 @ 0.5".
- All bid prices must be evenly divisible by 0.01.
- The bidding starts at 0.01.
- I will end the auction at an arbitrary time. Unless I say otherwise, I typically try to end auctions within a few days of 10 days from the time of this post, but unexpected circumstances may sometimes force me to end the auction anytime between 4 and 22 days from the start.
- If two people bid at the same price, the person who bid first will have his slots filled first.

If these rules are confusing, look at some of the past forum ad auctions to see how it's done.

I reserve the right to reject bids, even days after the bid is made.

Price flattening

At the end of the auction, after the winning bids are all determined, I will do a "price flattening" operation. This has no effect on which bids actually win. For each bid, in order of lowest to greatest price/slot, I will reduce each bid's price/slot to the highest value which is equal to or only the minimum increment greater than the next-lower bid. This allows you to bid higher prices without worrying so much, but you still mustn't bid more than you're willing to pay. Example:

Code:
This:
Slots  BTC/Slot  Person
    6      0.20       A
    1      0.16       B
    1      0.08       C
    1      0.08       D

Becomes:
Slots  BTC/Slot  Person
    6      0.10       A [step 4: reduced to 0.09+0.01=0.10]
    1      0.09       B [step 3: reduced to 0.08+0.01=0.09]
    1      0.08       C [step 2: same as the next-lowest, unchanged]
    1      0.08       D [step 1: the lowest bid is always unchanged]

Payment, etc.

You must pay for your slots within 24 hours of receiving the payment address. Otherwise your slots may be sold to someone else, and I might even give you a negative trust rating. I will send you the payment information via forum PM from this account ("theymos", user ID 35) after announcing the auction results in this thread. You might receive false payment information from scammers pretending to be me. They might even have somewhat similar usernames. Be careful.

[1]: For the purposes of forum ads, an ICO is any token, altcoin, or other altcoin-like thing which meets any of the following criteria: it is primarily run/backed by a company; it is substantially, fundamentally centralized in either operation or coin distribution; or it is not yet possible for two unprivileged users of the system to send coins directly to each other in a P2P way. The intention here is to allow community efforts to advertise things like Litecoin, but not to allow ICO funding, even when the ICO is disguised in various ways.
[2]: A loggable mixer is a service marketed primarily for improving transaction privacy which accepts full custody of cryptocurrency for a time and has the technical ability to log where the cryptocurrency comes from and goes to (even if they promise not to log).
123  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 321 on: October 15, 2020, 06:30:03 PM
Auction ended, final result:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
9 0.10 SlavaVendo
124  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 321 on: October 14, 2020, 08:02:58 PM
9 @ 0.07
8 @ 0.08

I'm informed that Playerspin and SlavaVendo are the same person, so I will ignore Playerspin's earlier bid here.

Current auction status:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
1 0.08 oncebitten3
8 0.08 SlavaVendo


The auction continues.
125  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Presidential debates on: October 08, 2020, 04:04:23 AM
As everyone expected, it was a boring and near-meaningless debate between Politician Man and Politician Woman. Each side will view their candidate as winning, and will be slightly enthused if they watched the debate. Undecideds who lean toward Republican ideology will be pushed a bit in that direction, while undecideds who lean toward Democratic ideology will be pushed a bit in that direction. The next big headline will completely wipe out any real effects, probably within days.

Everyone was so shell-shocked from last week that any interruptions or time extensions are liable to be viewed as horrific, though what went on here was totally in-line with what would normally be considered a civil debate. Some interruptions are normal in a debate. Because people would obviously be especially sensitive this time, though, I'm surprised that Pence was as aggressive on bending the rules as he was, and some people will judge him harshly for it. Both candidates did clearly hobble themselves by being more strict about following the rules than is normal or comfortable.

Since the whole thing is electorally meaningless, it's a bit pointless to declare a winner, but I'll do so anyway. Kamala did OK, and I think that her points were on the whole slightly more appealing to average viewers, but Pence had much better delivery and ability to adapt/rebut. I think that if you took an undecided person, had them watch the whole debate, and then polled them before they watched any other news coverage, Pence would win by a comfortable margin.

Random notes based on my notes while watching:
 - Kamala's delivery is overall not terrible. She sounds like she knows what she's talking about. She looks less calm than Pence, though, with some stilted delivery of rehearsed lines and a poor ability to adapt.
 - Plenty of spin and dodging from Pence, but I see less obvious lying than Kamala
 - Pence runs too long too often
 - Kamala's virus points are probably more convincing to the average person
 - Effective point from Pence on Biden's handling of swine flu
 - Both dodged on questions of presidential succession. Pence's use of the "free time" seemed more effective.
 - Kamala got a lot of mileage out of Woodward's stuff, and it all comes across pretty effectively
 - Kamala makes several economic points that will be attractive to people (creating jobs, taxing the wealthy, protecting healthcare, infrastructure, etc.), though Pence's rebuttal was pretty effective
 - Pence was pretty successful at treating Kamala with kid gloves, to the point where she comes off as rude/aggressive in several exchanges.
 - Kamala's reference to a Pew poll showing that other countries trust Xi more than Trump is a novel and effective argument.
 - Kamala's arguments around Trump's interactions with Russia & Iran are too esoteric to be effective.
 - It's a good line of attack for Biden/Harris to connect the supreme court to the ACA, and Kamala made this argument effectively. Pence should've used his time to somehow rebut this strong argument, but instead he wasted his breath on the esoteric court packing point. He was successful in pressuring Biden/Harris further on court packing, but most people don't understand or care about this.
 - Pence ideologically has to defer to the grand jury in the Breonna Taylor case, but it looks really bad because it's such an esoteric argument. It's like defending O.J. Simpson: people "know" that Breonna Taylor was not treated fairly, and no amount of legal mumbo-jumbo is going to change their minds. He should've avoided mentioning her particular case at all. (BTW, pretty rich for "Copmala" to complain about grand juries.)
 - Good points from Pence on Kamala's terrible DA record. Trump/Pence should talk more about this.
 - He couldn't do the argument justice in 5 seconds, but it's good for Pence to dismiss Bush's cabinet members the "establishment". Trump/Pence should talk more about this, and openly recognize that the Democratic party wants to bring together the bipartisan group who are responsible for 30+ years of failure and put them back in power.

FlyGate: Mike Pence seemingly had a fly land on him, perhaps a fruit fly bred by Hillary Clinton and released by one of her staffers.

The fly was sent by the deep state to infect Pence with coronavirus and put Nacy Pelosi in charge!

Kamala Harris had a valid point on Russian bounties though.

There's apparently disagreement within the government on whether those bounties actually existed. (And random leaks from "the intelligence community" aren't trustworthy anyway...)
126  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Presidential debates on: October 06, 2020, 12:27:38 AM
Sorry to disappoint.

Damn it... That isn't even good politics by any stretch of the imagination. It maybe appeals to some of his base, but it turns off a lot of people.

I agree that people shouldn't "live in fear"; a lot of the lockdown actions have gone way too far. But it's like driving (which is also quite dangerous!): you shouldn't live in fear or let the risk control your life, but you should also wear a seatbelt and drive carefully.

It's looking like Trump is going to get destroyed in this election, in large part because he just can't get beyond his own irrationality, narcissism, and tribalism. It's frustrating to watch, since Biden is a terrible candidate who represents an awful ideology. I think we're all kind of expecting due to 2016 that things will at least shift somewhat in Trump's favor, but with current polling Biden is on track to win in a historic landslide. And it's even possible that polls will be wrong in Biden's favor this time around, especially since pollsters might well have over-compensated after 2016: margins of error go both ways.
127  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Presidential debates on: October 05, 2020, 07:09:02 PM
I HEARD four Republicans say Trump is getting well and wants to show you can push through the illness.

If he personally tries to risk his life on this, then I respect his determination, but I hope that he doesn't try to send a general message of "coronavirus is harmless, look at me!". I hate that he's allowed "not wearing a mask" to become some sort of political statement. I'm opposed to mandatory closures and mask mandates, but not wearing a mask just for the sake of tribalism is completely braindead, and a leader encouraging this is just hurting his own faction. It's like Trump mailing all registered Republicans coupons for sky diving, hard liquor, and cigarettes, and telling them that real patriots aren't pussies.
128  Economy / Auctions / Advertise on this forum - Round 321 on: October 04, 2020, 07:26:03 PM
The forum sells ad space in the area beneath the first post of every topic page. This income is used primarily to cover hosting costs and to pay moderators for their work (there are many moderators, so each moderator gets only a small amount -- moderators should be seen as volunteers, not employees). Any leftover amount is typically either saved for future expenses or otherwise reinvested into the forum or the ecosystem.

There are 10 total ad slots which are randomly rotated. So one ad slot has a one in ten chance of appearing. Nine of the slots are for sale here. Ads appear only on topic pages with more than one post. Hero/Legendary members, Donators, VIPs, and moderators have the ability to disable ads; these people don't increase the impression stats for your ads.

Design & ad restrictions

Ad text may not contain lies, misrepresentation, or inappropriate language. Ads may not link directly to any NSFW page. No ICOs[1], loggable mixers[2], banks, funds, or anything that a person can be said to "invest" in; I may very rarely make exceptions if you convince me that you are ultra legit, but don't count on it. Ads may be rejected for other reasons, and I may remove ads even after they are accepted.

See the ad design rules for info on designing forum ads.

When advertising a new service, you should always check with me in advance whether your service is OK. I will sometimes accept bids of people who don't do this, but such people are taking the risk of being rejected at the last minute. It's also a good idea for you to have me check your ad's HTML+CSS in advance, especially if this is your first time advertising.

Duration

- Your ads are guaranteed to be up for at least 7 days.
- I usually try to keep ads up for no more than 11 days.
- Sometimes ads might be up for longer, but hopefully no longer than 12 days. Even if past rounds sometimes lasted for long periods of time, you should not rely on this for your ads.

Stats

Exact historical impression counts per slot:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstats

Info about the current ad slots:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adinfo

Auction rules

New members are likely to have their bids rejected unless they PM me first, telling me what they're going to advertise. New members might also be required to pay some amount in advance. Additionally, if you have never purchased forum ad space before, and it is not blatantly obvious what you're going to advertise, say what you're going to advertise in your first bid, or tell me in a PM.

Post your bids in this thread. Prices must be stated in BTC per slot. You must state the maximum number of slots you want. When the auction ends, the highest bidders will have their slots filled until all nine slots are filled.

So if someone bids for 9 slots @ 0.5 BTC and this is the highest bid, then he'll get all 9 slots. If the two highest bids are 9 slots @ 0.4 BTC and 1 slot @ 0.5 BTC, then the first person will get 8 slots and the second person will get 1 slot.

The notation "2 @ 0.5" means 2 slots for 0.5 BTC each. Not 2 slots for 0.5 BTC total.

- When you post a bid, the bids in your previous posts are considered to be automatically canceled. You can put multiple bids in one post, however, like "5 @ 0.1 and 1 @ 0.5".
- All bid prices must be evenly divisible by 0.01.
- The bidding starts at 0.01.
- I will end the auction at an arbitrary time. Unless I say otherwise, I typically try to end auctions within a few days of 10 days from the time of this post, but unexpected circumstances may sometimes force me to end the auction anytime between 4 and 22 days from the start.
- If two people bid at the same price, the person who bid first will have his slots filled first.

If these rules are confusing, look at some of the past forum ad auctions to see how it's done.

I reserve the right to reject bids, even days after the bid is made.

Price flattening

At the end of the auction, after the winning bids are all determined, I will do a "price flattening" operation. This has no effect on which bids actually win. For each bid, in order of lowest to greatest price/slot, I will reduce each bid's price/slot to the highest value which is equal to or only the minimum increment greater than the next-lower bid. This allows you to bid higher prices without worrying so much, but you still mustn't bid more than you're willing to pay. Example:

Code:
This:
Slots  BTC/Slot  Person
    6      0.20       A
    1      0.16       B
    1      0.08       C
    1      0.08       D

Becomes:
Slots  BTC/Slot  Person
    6      0.10       A [step 4: reduced to 0.09+0.01=0.10]
    1      0.09       B [step 3: reduced to 0.08+0.01=0.09]
    1      0.08       C [step 2: same as the next-lowest, unchanged]
    1      0.08       D [step 1: the lowest bid is always unchanged]

Payment, etc.

You must pay for your slots within 24 hours of receiving the payment address. Otherwise your slots may be sold to someone else, and I might even give you a negative trust rating. I will send you the payment information via forum PM from this account ("theymos", user ID 35) after announcing the auction results in this thread. You might receive false payment information from scammers pretending to be me. They might even have somewhat similar usernames. Be careful.

[1]: For the purposes of forum ads, an ICO is any token, altcoin, or other altcoin-like thing which meets any of the following criteria: it is primarily run/backed by a company; it is substantially, fundamentally centralized in either operation or coin distribution; or it is not yet possible for two unprivileged users of the system to send coins directly to each other in a P2P way. The intention here is to allow community efforts to advertise things like Litecoin, but not to allow ICO funding, even when the ICO is disguised in various ways.
[2]: A loggable mixer is a service marketed primarily for improving transaction privacy which accepts full custody of cryptocurrency for a time and has the technical ability to log where the cryptocurrency comes from and goes to (even if they promise not to log).
129  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 320 on: October 04, 2020, 07:25:46 PM
Auction ended, final result:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
3 0.07 FortuneJack
2 0.07 lightlord
4 0.06 DogecoinMachine
130  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Presidential debates on: October 02, 2020, 07:05:03 PM
covid-19 has give  trump a. Exit strategy.  He now has the option to resign with health as the reason. For the good of the country I am not well enough so I appoint my daughter as the vp.  Pence Trump  still the ticket.

And pence pardons trump for any and all crimes committed in office.

Just o e of many moves trump now has due to covid-19

Honestly it's not a bad idea as a hail mary strategy. Trump already had only a small chance of pulling this off, he didn't do well enough in the debate, and now he won't be able to campaign effectively. We've all gotten trained from our experience with 2016 to think that Trump is somehow going to pull this off, but it's looking almost impossible now, so something utterly crazy like that might be in order. A lot of people are holding their noses to vote for Biden just because they despise Trump. Biden is such a terrible candidate that even a boring Republican like Romney or Pence would in ordinary times wipe the floor with him. If they switch to Ivanka, some of Trump's die-hard base will stick with her, and some people who are only reluctantly voting for Biden would switch or at least not vote.
131  Other / Meta / Re: DT update log on: October 02, 2020, 05:12:31 PM
This month 134 users were eligible.

Old:
Code:
theymos
gmaxwell
malevolent
Balthazar
qwk
mprep
Dabs
Foxpup
philipma1957
babo
Cyrus
peloso
Welsh
ibminer
TookDk
vizique
Timelord2067
jeremypwr
yogg
by rallier
dbshck
hilariousandco
Avirunes
Lydian
mindrust
buckrogers
Buchi-88
Lesbian Cow
suchmoon
JayJuanGee
achow101
DaveF
teeGUMES
owlcatz
examplens
minerjones
yahoo62278
Royse777
zazarb
o_solo_miner
ezeminer
SyGambler
WhiteManWhite
LeGaulois
DarkStar_
SFR10
TwitchySeal
TryNinja
bob123
eddie13
johhnyUA
ekiller
condoras
bL4nkcode
Coin_trader
polymerbit
Yatsan
xtraelv
Ale88
duesoldi
Kryptowerk
bobita
nullius
Vispilio
imhoneer
krogothmanhattan
wolwoo
JollyGood
Blacknavy
xenon131
roycilik
CryptopreneurBrainboss
El duderino_
KTChampions
Steamtyme
Coin-1
o_e_l_e_o
3meek
logfiles
joniboini
Maus0728
TheBeardedBaby
coinlocket$
dkbit98
mole0815
witcher_sense
asche
cabalism13
anonymousminer
fillippone
taikuri13
abhiseshakana
madnessteat
Coolcryptovator
DireWolfM14
Corrosive
TalkStar
1miau
efialtis
zasad@

New:
Code:
HostFat
gmaxwell
OgNasty
CanaryInTheMine
malevolent
qwk
fronti
mprep
philipma1957
babo
Welsh
ibminer
Timelord2067
figmentofmyass
jeremypwr
by rallier
dbshck
greenplastic
Avirunes
Lydian
mindrust
buckrogers
Buchi-88
Lesbian Cow
willi9974
suchmoon
JayJuanGee
Rmcdermott927
achow101
teeGUMES
owlcatz
examplens
nutildah
minerjones
sapta
BitcoinPenny
yahoo62278
Royse777
ezeminer
sandy-is-fine
SyGambler
klarki
LoyceV
actmyname
Last of the V8s
The Pharmacist
LeGaulois
DarkStar_
TwitchySeal
TryNinja
bob123
eddie13
johhnyUA
condoras
bL4nkcode
Coin_trader
polymerbit
Yatsan
finaleshot2016
Ale88
bobita
nullius
Baofeng
imhoneer
krogothmanhattan
JollyGood
Blacknavy
xenon131
CryptopreneurBrainboss
KTChampions
bavicrypto
GreatArkansas
Veleor
o_e_l_e_o
3meek
logfiles
joniboini
Agrawas
Maus0728
TheBeardedBaby
dkbit98
mole0815
asche
DdmrDdmr
cabalism13
anonymousminer
morvillz7z
Husna QA
fillippone
abhiseshakana
madnessteat
Coolcryptovator
lovesmayfamilis
DireWolfM14
TalkStar
1miau
YOSHIE
efialtis
Ratimov
zasad@
132  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does US election affect the bitcoin price? on: October 02, 2020, 03:08:02 PM
I tend to visualize the price of Bitcoin as being composed of two components: a "digital gold" component which will behave similarly to gold, and a "risk asset" component which will behave like leveraged exposure to the S&P 500. (Neither with 100% correlation, of course, since Bitcoin is its own thing.) The gold component is maybe 20% of the price currently, while the risk-asset component is maybe 80% of the price, so the risk-asset component usually dominates.

I think that any clear resolution to the election will boost risk assets significantly in the medium-term, Bitcoin included, since one of the biggest risks will be taken out of the picture. A chaotic, disputed election outcome will probably cause risk assets including Bitcoin to crash. If chaos lasts a long time, the "digital gold" component of the Bitcoin price may start to dominate more, and this may allow its price to recover more quickly than some other assets. Long-term, a Biden presidency is probably somewhat worse for Bitcoin, since his administration will be more anti-Bitcoin and will be much more likely to put forward harmful regulations. (Not that Trump is super pro-Bitcoin or anything...) I wouldn't expect these sorts of long-term predicted effects to cause much shorter-term price action, though, other than maybe a very-short-term panic crash.
133  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Presidential debates on: October 01, 2020, 02:08:03 AM
Hopefully these debates get better. Total win for Biden though as a messy debate helps him. Trump needed a great debate and he didn't get it.

The second presidential debate is likely to be the exact opposite of the first. It's moderated by Steve Scully, "the most patient man on television". Most people are probably imagining that Scully will be even weaker than Wallace, but as someone who's watched hundreds of hours of C-SPAN's Washington Journal over the years, let me assure you that he won't be, by far. Scully has decades of experience in moderating, he's the most active of the C-SPAN hosts at pushing back at callers, and he's the most willing to insert his own bias. His bias is that of someone who's lived in the DC bubble for so long that it's all he can conceive. He's someone who actually thinks that MSNBC journalists are unbiased, that the national security state is staffed entirely with honest actors, that the system made sense and was basically working pre-Trump, etc. While I'm sure that Scully will honestly try to be fair, he is fundamentally biased against everything that Trump stands for, and he will feel duty-bound to moderate him very harshly.

I predict that the second debate will end up breaking into two disjointed pieces: the first will be a raucous debate between Trump and Steve Scully, and the second will be a peaceful, boring townhall between Biden and some citizens, with Trump muted.
134  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Presidential debates on: September 30, 2020, 03:13:01 AM
Not a boring debate, though very messy. Trump was interrupting so much that a lot of people might've just lost interest and turned off the channel. If you did watch, then Trump was clearly dominating; Biden looked very weak. Biden supporters will be even more irritated at Trump than usual for rudely steamrolling over Biden, though I don't think that their enthusiasm (=likeliness to vote) will be increased. Trump's supporters will be pretty excited. The most important factor was whether anyone was convinced that Biden is not the safe pick, and I think that there may have been a bit of this due to how incoherent/distractable/weak he was, but there was so much interruption from Trump that this effect may have been reduced. In many cases Trump's first inturruption clearly threw off Biden's train of thought and probably would've caused him to falter for the next 60 seconds if left alone, but Trump kept interrupting him, which ruins the effect. Trump would've been better-served by cutting his interruptions by 75% IMO (though definitely not eliminating them).

I think that it was a good night for Trump overall. Better than I expected, though far from perfect for him, and probably not enough to really shake up the race.

There were a lot of controversial things Trump said, but most of it will slide off of Teflon Don like usual. The only huge flub I saw from him was his refusal to denounce white nationalists. He handed that exchange very poorly for no apparent reason, and if the media makes a big deal out of this, I could see this actually hurting him a bit.

Random notes I made while watching:
 - Reasonable realpolitik answer from Trump on the court nomination. Best to drop any pretense of consistency, since everyone knows that's BS.
 - Trump was effective at prodding Biden about packing the court
 - Biden's prepared "look at your empty chair [from people who died from coronavirus]" response came off to me as an incredibly distasteful obvious political heart-strings-pull. Not sure how it will be viewed generally.
 - Interesting for Trump to note his CDC's lying on masks
 - Even Wallace laughed at Trump's joke about nobody showing up to Biden events
 - Trump was strong on the tax story. Directly denied it, changed the subject, distracted Biden when he was talking about it. It's really effective to blame Biden for creating the tax loopholes that Trump exploited.
 - It was very bad moderating for Wallace to ask a question about Critical Race Theory in a debate. Most viewers will have never heard of this, and will think that it's just some generic anti-racism sensitivity training, but this specific program has many critics on both the right and left. You could debate its merits, but you can't expect someone to even properly explain the issue in 2 minutes. (Trump should've dodged it more directly rather than actually trying to half-explain it.)
 - Biden had some good prepared remarks on suburbs and community policing, and Trump's prodding on this doesn't seem effective to me
 - One moment Trump is accusing Biden of writing a too-harsh, racist crime bill, the next he's saying that he's weak on law & order...
 - Trump's "name one police group supporting you", and Biden's failure to do so, was super effective.
 - Biden should've been able to fire back more strongly at Trump's refusal to commit to accepting the election outcome.
135  Other / Politics & Society / Presidential debates on: September 29, 2020, 09:02:48 PM
The first presidential debate is tonight. Unlike the conventions, the debates do get quite a bit of viewership. The first 2016 debate had an average viewership of 84 million; for comparison, the Super Bowl a few months later had 111 million average viewers -- not that much higher. Most viewers are "cheering for their team", and are not particularly convinceable, though debate performance may affect enthusiasm. If you agree with everything your candidate says in the debate, but you don't see their performance as some kind of slam dunk, and the media is mixed about who actually "won", then you may be less enthusiastic and therefore less likely to vote. If you see your candidate as totally destroying the other guy, then this may really fire you up to vote.

Trump is pretty far behind Biden in the polls, so he could really use some excellent debates. It's not good enough for Trump to come out of the debates looking like the person who best made his points. It's not really helpful for Trump to come out ahead on any debates of actual issues (abortion, taxes, etc.); rather, Trump needs to make Biden not look like the safe choice. Most people who are going to vote for Biden are doing it because they don't like Trump (to varying degrees), and they view Biden as a "safe enough" return to the pre-Trump status quo. Even if Biden looks a bit weak in the debate, or he communicates his policy ideas worse, or in many cases even if viewers disagree with most of Biden's policies: if voters don't like Trump and they come out of these debates thinking that Biden looks like a normal, boring politician, then they're likely to vote for him.

The best case for Trump would be for Biden to get visibly angry and incoherent, as he has a few times on the campaign trail and in a few interviews. Maybe Trump can goad him into this, but surely Biden's campaign will have anticipated this strategy and taken every possible step to prevent it. Biden's performance in the primary debates was boring, but he didn't fall apart, and that would probably be a good enough performance here. Trump will attack Biden much more strongly than any of the Democratic candidates did, though.

If Trump can't make Biden completely fall apart, then his goals will be:
 - Have a lot of good attack lines that will fire up his base.
 - Avoid looking like a crazy, dangerous person, as this could fire up Biden's base and put off swing voters.
 - Paint Biden as dangerously radical. (Though I think it's difficult to credibly do this, since it's not how Biden comes off whatsoever.)
 - Point to the fact that Biden in many ways created the problems which caused people to resort to voting Trump in 2016
(Some of these are contradictory, so it'd be difficult to do all of them.)

A boring/ordinary debate is a Biden win, even if Trump is ultimately seen as a slight "debate winner". Trump needs to turn every policy/issue into a way of attacking Biden, and these attacks have to be really effective. I think that Trump probably won't be able to do well enough to move the needle. While Biden isn't all there mentally, IMO Trump's mental faculties have also degraded since 2016, he's in a worse political position, and Biden is more likeable than Hillary. But if Trump does pull it off, then it'll be a very interesting debate!
136  Economy / Auctions / Advertise on this forum - Round 320 on: September 23, 2020, 01:41:02 PM
The forum sells ad space in the area beneath the first post of every topic page. This income is used primarily to cover hosting costs and to pay moderators for their work (there are many moderators, so each moderator gets only a small amount -- moderators should be seen as volunteers, not employees). Any leftover amount is typically either saved for future expenses or otherwise reinvested into the forum or the ecosystem.

There are 10 total ad slots which are randomly rotated. So one ad slot has a one in ten chance of appearing. Nine of the slots are for sale here. Ads appear only on topic pages with more than one post. Hero/Legendary members, Donators, VIPs, and moderators have the ability to disable ads; these people don't increase the impression stats for your ads.

Design & ad restrictions

Ad text may not contain lies, misrepresentation, or inappropriate language. Ads may not link directly to any NSFW page. No ICOs[1], loggable mixers[2], banks, funds, or anything that a person can be said to "invest" in; I may very rarely make exceptions if you convince me that you are ultra legit, but don't count on it. Ads may be rejected for other reasons, and I may remove ads even after they are accepted.

See the ad design rules for info on designing forum ads.

When advertising a new service, you should always check with me in advance whether your service is OK. I will sometimes accept bids of people who don't do this, but such people are taking the risk of being rejected at the last minute. It's also a good idea for you to have me check your ad's HTML+CSS in advance, especially if this is your first time advertising.

Duration

- Your ads are guaranteed to be up for at least 7 days.
- I usually try to keep ads up for no more than 11 days.
- Sometimes ads might be up for longer, but hopefully no longer than 12 days. Even if past rounds sometimes lasted for long periods of time, you should not rely on this for your ads.

Stats

Exact historical impression counts per slot:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstats

Info about the current ad slots:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adinfo

Auction rules

New members are likely to have their bids rejected unless they PM me first, telling me what they're going to advertise. New members might also be required to pay some amount in advance. Additionally, if you have never purchased forum ad space before, and it is not blatantly obvious what you're going to advertise, say what you're going to advertise in your first bid, or tell me in a PM.

Post your bids in this thread. Prices must be stated in BTC per slot. You must state the maximum number of slots you want. When the auction ends, the highest bidders will have their slots filled until all nine slots are filled.

So if someone bids for 9 slots @ 0.5 BTC and this is the highest bid, then he'll get all 9 slots. If the two highest bids are 9 slots @ 0.4 BTC and 1 slot @ 0.5 BTC, then the first person will get 8 slots and the second person will get 1 slot.

The notation "2 @ 0.5" means 2 slots for 0.5 BTC each. Not 2 slots for 0.5 BTC total.

- When you post a bid, the bids in your previous posts are considered to be automatically canceled. You can put multiple bids in one post, however, like "5 @ 0.1 and 1 @ 0.5".
- All bid prices must be evenly divisible by 0.01.
- The bidding starts at 0.01.
- I will end the auction at an arbitrary time. Unless I say otherwise, I typically try to end auctions within a few days of 10 days from the time of this post, but unexpected circumstances may sometimes force me to end the auction anytime between 4 and 22 days from the start.
- If two people bid at the same price, the person who bid first will have his slots filled first.

If these rules are confusing, look at some of the past forum ad auctions to see how it's done.

I reserve the right to reject bids, even days after the bid is made.

Price flattening

At the end of the auction, after the winning bids are all determined, I will do a "price flattening" operation. This has no effect on which bids actually win. For each bid, in order of lowest to greatest price/slot, I will reduce each bid's price/slot to the highest value which is equal to or only the minimum increment greater than the next-lower bid. This allows you to bid higher prices without worrying so much, but you still mustn't bid more than you're willing to pay. Example:

Code:
This:
Slots  BTC/Slot  Person
    6      0.20       A
    1      0.16       B
    1      0.08       C
    1      0.08       D

Becomes:
Slots  BTC/Slot  Person
    6      0.10       A [step 4: reduced to 0.09+0.01=0.10]
    1      0.09       B [step 3: reduced to 0.08+0.01=0.09]
    1      0.08       C [step 2: same as the next-lowest, unchanged]
    1      0.08       D [step 1: the lowest bid is always unchanged]

Payment, etc.

You must pay for your slots within 24 hours of receiving the payment address. Otherwise your slots may be sold to someone else, and I might even give you a negative trust rating. I will send you the payment information via forum PM from this account ("theymos", user ID 35) after announcing the auction results in this thread. You might receive false payment information from scammers pretending to be me. They might even have somewhat similar usernames. Be careful.

[1]: For the purposes of forum ads, an ICO is any token, altcoin, or other altcoin-like thing which meets any of the following criteria: it is primarily run/backed by a company; it is substantially, fundamentally centralized in either operation or coin distribution; or it is not yet possible for two unprivileged users of the system to send coins directly to each other in a P2P way. The intention here is to allow community efforts to advertise things like Litecoin, but not to allow ICO funding, even when the ICO is disguised in various ways.
[2]: A loggable mixer is a service marketed primarily for improving transaction privacy which accepts full custody of cryptocurrency for a time and has the technical ability to log where the cryptocurrency comes from and goes to (even if they promise not to log).
137  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 319 on: September 23, 2020, 01:40:30 PM
3 @ 0.04 or 2 @ 0.06 or 1 @ 0.11

Loggable mixers are not allowed, see the rules. I also don't understand "or" in this bid.

1 @ 0.1

Sorry, no investments.

Auction ended, final result:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
5 0.09 sportsbet.io
2 0.08 DogecoinMachine
2 0.08 lightlord
138  Other / Politics & Society / Re: SC Justice Ginsberg dead. on: September 19, 2020, 02:56:39 AM
Wow, the universe's writers are really going all-out for 2020!

I disagree strongly with RBG's politics in most areas, and I think that her tenure as Supreme Court Justice was very harmful, though I admire her tenacity. If I spend my last decades clinging to life and continuing to fight, with hundreds of thousands of my ideological adverseries hoping for my death and spitting on my grave after I die, then my life will have been an unbelievable success.

This probably actually hurts Trump, though it throws even more chaos into what was already likely to be an incredibly chaotic election. If Trump appoints someone before the election, then evangelical/conservative/libertarian Republicans will have less reason to hold their noses and vote for him, since yet another vacancy is no longer particularly likely. If Trump chooses not to appoint someone while he has the chance, then it pisses off these same voters, since Trump definitely can appoint someone. Whoever he appoints will be tarred-and-feathered in the same way that Kavanaugh was, and the Democrats will use the appointment as way of enraging their base and getting them to turn out. IMO Biden's chance of winning goes up several percentage points due to RBG's death.

There are several paths Trump can take when picking someone:
 - It'd be best for Trump if he can find some way of not appointing anyone, but making it look like the Democrats' fault. Not sure if that's possible. Failing that, his best option from the perspective of being reelected will be to pick someone very moderate and/or of absolutely unimpeachable character. Merrick Garland, for example. This isn't Trump's style, though...
 - I'd prefer that he pick another strict constitutionalist like Gorsuch. I've heard that Amy Coney Barrett would be a good choice from this perspective.
 - It's probably most likely that he'll pick another member of the neocon establishment like Kavanaugh, since Trump is still surrounded by a lot of neocons. This will be bad for everyone.
 - If he wants to throw all of his eggs in the "steal the election" basket, he'll pick someone who he's sure will be loyal. I don't know who on Trump's list most meets this criteria.

Unless the presidential election is a landslide, whoever loses is going to try to steal the election. Trump will claim that mail-in ballots are fraudulent, illegals voted, the deep state conspired against him, etc. Biden will claim that Trump was helped by Russia, and he will also dispute the premise of the electoral college. There are multiple ways that this chaos could unfold, but it's likely that the Supreme Court will get involved at some point, and having several loyal justices will give Trump the edge at this stage of the battle.

RBG was a loyal Democrat in the same way that Kavanaugh and Thomas are loyal Republicans, voting in their respective party's favor whenever they can get away with it, regardless of any actual legal considerations. Gorsuch is actually committed to textualism. John Roberts is not a loyal Republican, and in controversial cases he will always cast his vote in whichever way defers to the executive or legislative branches the most. I'm not familiar enough with the philosophies of the others, though they usually vote along party lines in contentious cases.

If it looks fairly clear that Trump should not win, then IMO he'll get only two or three supreme court votes, including his new appointment. There has to be at least some legitimate lack of clarity. But if for example it all comes down to a few states which can't decide internally who should get their electors, I could definitely see a 6-3 or 5-4 decision either picking the more Republican-favorable slates of electors or throwing out enough of the contested electoral votes to give the decision to a Republican-advantaged House/Senate. (Note: in the "House decides" scenario, the House votes weirdly, and Republicans would currently have it, though this could change, since it's the incoming House/Senate.) With such a strong Court majority, it makes it much more difficult for Biden to steal the election if he loses, which he otherwise might've been able to do with Roberts' help.

This could get really crazy. We could see blood in the streets, threats of secession, etc. I think that Trump is too lazy/unambitious to do anything too crazy like trying a coup after he'd already clearly lost, and modern Americans are as a whole too risk-averse to have anything very close to another 1861-style Civil War (c.f. the extreme risk-averseness evidenced in the coronavirus response), but this could shape up to be the biggest internal conflict since The Civil War. (That said, the most likely outcome is something more ordinary, since the vast majority of people want something more ordinary.)

If widespread Democrat vs Republican violence does happen, I urge forum members to stay out of it. There's honestly not that much difference between how Biden or Trump will govern. Their administrations are or would be staffed mainly by the usual establishment types, their policies will be more-or-less the same sort of stuff we've seen over the last decades, neither of them really represents your beliefs very closely, etc. I believe very much in fighting vigorously for what you believe in, but you have much to lose and almost nothing to gain for making this the hill you want to die on. The strong emotions here on both sides is mainly just irrational tribalism.

I would anticipate Trump quickly nominating a solid conservative before the election and the Senate to confirm her.

Quote from: Mitch McConnell
The American people are perfectly capable of having their say on this issue, so let's give them a voice. Let's let the American people decide. The Senate will appropriately revisit the matter when it considers the qualifications of the nominee the next president nominates, whoever that might be.

Everyone knew that that was bullshit which he'd flip on whenever it became politically convenient to do so. For this vacancy, he'll come up with some excuse to "fill it", though I don't know why he even bothers with excuses, since both sides have basically abandoned any pretense of civility, consistency, or fairness at this point. If McConnel came out and said, "We're going to fill it this time because it's politically convenient. That's it.", hardly anyone would think any less of him because if it.

This doesn’t matter if the Harris-Biden ticket wins, and Democrats take over the Senate. If this happens, it is all but certain that the SC will be packed regardless of who gets confirmed this year.

Not sure if Biden would do it, but that is pretty likely at some point.
139  Economy / Auctions / Advertise on this forum - Round 319 on: September 10, 2020, 07:10:52 PM
The forum sells ad space in the area beneath the first post of every topic page. This income is used primarily to cover hosting costs and to pay moderators for their work (there are many moderators, so each moderator gets only a small amount -- moderators should be seen as volunteers, not employees). Any leftover amount is typically either saved for future expenses or otherwise reinvested into the forum or the ecosystem.

There are 10 total ad slots which are randomly rotated. So one ad slot has a one in ten chance of appearing. Nine of the slots are for sale here. Ads appear only on topic pages with more than one post. Hero/Legendary members, Donators, VIPs, and moderators have the ability to disable ads; these people don't increase the impression stats for your ads.

Design & ad restrictions

Ad text may not contain lies, misrepresentation, or inappropriate language. Ads may not link directly to any NSFW page. No ICOs[1], loggable mixers[2], banks, funds, or anything that a person can be said to "invest" in; I may very rarely make exceptions if you convince me that you are ultra legit, but don't count on it. Ads may be rejected for other reasons, and I may remove ads even after they are accepted.

See the ad design rules for info on designing forum ads.

When advertising a new service, you should always check with me in advance whether your service is OK. I will sometimes accept bids of people who don't do this, but such people are taking the risk of being rejected at the last minute. It's also a good idea for you to have me check your ad's HTML+CSS in advance, especially if this is your first time advertising.

Duration

- Your ads are guaranteed to be up for at least 7 days.
- I usually try to keep ads up for no more than 11 days.
- Sometimes ads might be up for longer, but hopefully no longer than 12 days. Even if past rounds sometimes lasted for long periods of time, you should not rely on this for your ads.

Stats

Exact historical impression counts per slot:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstats

Info about the current ad slots:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adinfo

Auction rules

New members are likely to have their bids rejected unless they PM me first, telling me what they're going to advertise. New members might also be required to pay some amount in advance. Additionally, if you have never purchased forum ad space before, and it is not blatantly obvious what you're going to advertise, say what you're going to advertise in your first bid, or tell me in a PM.

Post your bids in this thread. Prices must be stated in BTC per slot. You must state the maximum number of slots you want. When the auction ends, the highest bidders will have their slots filled until all nine slots are filled.

So if someone bids for 9 slots @ 0.5 BTC and this is the highest bid, then he'll get all 9 slots. If the two highest bids are 9 slots @ 0.4 BTC and 1 slot @ 0.5 BTC, then the first person will get 8 slots and the second person will get 1 slot.

The notation "2 @ 0.5" means 2 slots for 0.5 BTC each. Not 2 slots for 0.5 BTC total.

- When you post a bid, the bids in your previous posts are considered to be automatically canceled. You can put multiple bids in one post, however, like "5 @ 0.1 and 1 @ 0.5".
- All bid prices must be evenly divisible by 0.01.
- The bidding starts at 0.01.
- I will end the auction at an arbitrary time. Unless I say otherwise, I typically try to end auctions within a few days of 10 days from the time of this post, but unexpected circumstances may sometimes force me to end the auction anytime between 4 and 22 days from the start.
- If two people bid at the same price, the person who bid first will have his slots filled first.

If these rules are confusing, look at some of the past forum ad auctions to see how it's done.

I reserve the right to reject bids, even days after the bid is made.

Price flattening

At the end of the auction, after the winning bids are all determined, I will do a "price flattening" operation. This has no effect on which bids actually win. For each bid, in order of lowest to greatest price/slot, I will reduce each bid's price/slot to the highest value which is equal to or only the minimum increment greater than the next-lower bid. This allows you to bid higher prices without worrying so much, but you still mustn't bid more than you're willing to pay. Example:

Code:
This:
Slots  BTC/Slot  Person
    6      0.20       A
    1      0.16       B
    1      0.08       C
    1      0.08       D

Becomes:
Slots  BTC/Slot  Person
    6      0.10       A [step 4: reduced to 0.09+0.01=0.10]
    1      0.09       B [step 3: reduced to 0.08+0.01=0.09]
    1      0.08       C [step 2: same as the next-lowest, unchanged]
    1      0.08       D [step 1: the lowest bid is always unchanged]

Payment, etc.

You must pay for your slots within 24 hours of receiving the payment address. Otherwise your slots may be sold to someone else, and I might even give you a negative trust rating. I will send you the payment information via forum PM from this account ("theymos", user ID 35) after announcing the auction results in this thread. You might receive false payment information from scammers pretending to be me. They might even have somewhat similar usernames. Be careful.

[1]: For the purposes of forum ads, an ICO is any token, altcoin, or other altcoin-like thing which meets any of the following criteria: it is primarily run/backed by a company; it is substantially, fundamentally centralized in either operation or coin distribution; or it is not yet possible for two unprivileged users of the system to send coins directly to each other in a P2P way. The intention here is to allow community efforts to advertise things like Litecoin, but not to allow ICO funding, even when the ICO is disguised in various ways.
[2]: A loggable mixer is a service marketed primarily for improving transaction privacy which accepts full custody of cryptocurrency for a time and has the technical ability to log where the cryptocurrency comes from and goes to (even if they promise not to log).
140  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 318 on: September 10, 2020, 07:10:35 PM
Auction ended, final result:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
9 0.05 sportsbet.io
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