Current auction status:
Slots mBTC/Slot Person
2 46 yahoo62278
2 46 Panxora_COO
5 46 frankie_one

The auction continues.

Note that frankie_one, bitblade, and WOW_Crypto have all been pre-approved.

Current auction status:
Slots mBTC/Slot Person
5 26 frankie_one
4 24 Hhampuz

The auction continues.

If an organization is the victim, then anyone authorized by the organization to act on the organization's behalf in these sorts of things can create the flag.

I'm bearish for the first half of the year because most of the world is transitioning from unprecedentedly easy money to, relatively, extremely tight money, and crypto feeds off of easy money more than anything. People talk a lot about interest rates, but it's that plus slowing growth, much lower government spending, and rapidly ending QE. Worldwide, the brakes have already been slammed on the economy, but people haven't quite realized it yet. I think that sometime in the first half of the year all liquid assets including BTC are likely to fall off a cliff. It then might quickly recover within days, or this might lead to a frenzy of panic selling which lasts a couple of months. I think that this crash will be an excellent time to buy, though, and we could see ATHs toward the end of the year.

My record of price predictions isn't great, and so I don't personally make large bets based on my price outlook. My prediction above will definitively be wrong if we get to July without a major crash, or if interest rates peak and then start to constantly fall without a crash in liquid assets.

Right, hotdog7 was apparently phished. The link uses strange characters to evade bitcointalk.org's detection of phishing links, but it was actually linked to a phishing site via [url].

The forum sells ad space in the area beneath the first post of every topic page. This income is used primarily to cover hosting costs and to pay moderators for their work (there are many moderators, so each moderator gets only a small amount -- moderators should be seen as volunteers, not employees). Any leftover amount is typically either saved for future expenses or otherwise reinvested into the forum or the ecosystem.

There are 10 total ad slots which are randomly rotated. So one ad slot has a one in ten chance of appearing. Nine of the slots are for sale here. Ads appear only on topic pages with more than one post. Hero/Legendary members, Donators, VIPs, and moderators have the ability to disable ads; these people don't increase the impression stats for your ads.

Design & ad restrictions

Ad text may not contain lies, misrepresentation, or inappropriate language. Ads may not link directly to any NSFW page. No ICOs^[1], loggable mixers^[2], banks, funds, or anything that a person can be said to "invest" in; I may very rarely make exceptions if you convince me that you are ultra legit, but don't count on it. Ads may be rejected for other reasons, and I may remove ads even after they are accepted.

See the ad design rules for info on designing forum ads.

When advertising a new service, you should always check with me in advance whether your service is OK. I will sometimes accept bids of people who don't do this, but such people are taking the risk of being rejected at the last minute. It's also a good idea for you to have me check your ad's HTML+CSS in advance, especially if this is your first time advertising.

Duration/timing

 - Ad slots won in this auction will run from noon February 8 (US Eastern time) to noon March 15. (35 days.)
 - This auction will end sometime between January 31 and February 3, but February 1 is most likely.
 - You must pay within 48 hours of the auction ending. Only Bitcoin is accepted. If you fail to pay in time, your ad slots may be resold, and in cases where I feel that you're acting in bad faith, I may even give you a negative trust rating.
 - You must send me a valid ad (ie. one not breaking any of the styling or other rules) before noon February 7. If you fail to send a valid ad in time, then the ad round will start without you, and you will be "burning time". You can still send an ad after the deadline, and usually this ad will be put up fairly quickly, but no particular timeline is guaranteed after the deadline.
 - If extended downtime or similar issues cause your ad not to be displayed for a long time, we generally give prorated refunds (USD-denominated) for the lost time, but this is not guaranteed.

Stats

Exact historical impression counts per slot:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstats

Info about the current ad slots:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adinfo

Auction rules

New members are likely to have their bids rejected unless they PM me first, telling me what they're going to advertise. New members might also be required to pay some amount in advance. Additionally, if you have never purchased forum ad space before, and it is not blatantly obvious what you're going to advertise, say what you're going to advertise in your first bid, or tell me in a PM.

Post your bids in this thread. Prices must be stated in mBTC per slot. (10 mBTC = 0.01 BTC.) You must state the maximum number of slots you want. When the auction ends, the highest bidders will have their slots filled until all nine slots are filled.

So if someone bids for 9 slots @ 50 mBTC and this is the highest bid, then he'll get all 9 slots. If the two highest bids are 9 slots @ 40 mBTC and 1 slot @ 50 mBTC, then the first person will get 8 slots and the second person will get 1 slot.

The notation "2 @ 50" means 2 slots for 50 mBTC each. Not 2 slots for 50 mBTC total.

- When you post a bid, the bids in your previous posts are considered to be automatically canceled. You can put multiple bids in one post, however, like "5 @ 10 and 1 @ 50".
- All bid prices must be evenly divisible by 2 mBTC.
- The bidding starts at 2 mBTC.
- The auction ends at an arbitrary time between January 31 and February 3. Times closer to 8:00AM February 1 (US Eastern time) are more likely.
- If two people bid at the same price, the person who bid first will have his slots filled first.

If these rules are confusing, look at some of the past forum ad auctions to see how it's done.

I reserve the right to reject bids, even days after the bid is made.

Price flattening

At the end of the auction, after the winning bids are all determined, I will do a "price flattening" operation. This has no effect on which bids actually win, but is instead just meant to make the prices actually paid by bidders more equal. For each bid, in order of lowest to greatest price/slot, I will reduce each bid's price/slot to the highest value which is equal to or only the minimum increment greater than the next-lower bid. This allows you to bid higher prices without worrying so much, but you still mustn't bid more than you're willing to pay. Example:


Payment, etc.

You must pay for your slots within 48 hours of receiving the payment address. Otherwise your slots may be sold to someone else, and I might even give you a negative trust rating. I will send you the payment information via forum PM from this account ("theymos", user ID 35) after announcing the auction results in this thread. You might receive false payment information from scammers pretending to be me. They might even have somewhat similar usernames. Be careful.

---

[1]: For the purposes of forum ads, an ICO is any token, altcoin, or other altcoin-like thing which meets any of the following criteria: it is primarily run/backed by a company; it is substantially, fundamentally centralized in either operation or coin distribution; or it is not yet possible for two unprivileged users of the system to send coins directly to each other in a P2P way. The intention here is to allow community efforts to advertise things like Litecoin, but not to allow ICO funding, even when the ICO is disguised in various ways.
[2]: A loggable mixer is a service marketed primarily for improving transaction privacy which accepts full custody of cryptocurrency for a time and has the technical ability to log where the cryptocurrency comes from and goes to (even if they promise not to log).

Auction ended, final result:
Slots mBTC/Slot Person
4 4 Panxora_COO
5 4 Hhampuz

This month 127 users were eligible.

Old:

New:

Merry Christmas! I hope that everyone had/has a satisfying Christmas, a great 2021, and an even better 2022.

In this situation it turned out we had two dummies: owlgames sent the BTC incorrectly to the forum, and then yesterday I sent his refund to the wrong address. I'd been referring to my previous notes on how to do the refund correctly, and I sent the BTC to the last person who overpaid, since their address was still in my notes and I forgot to change it this time. (Now I've rewritten these notes to remove addresses...)

I thought there was little chance of getting the BTC back, since the last person who overpaid looked fairly anonymous, and in any case they were probably using an exchange address or something. So this morning I refunded owlgames properly in a second transaction, and I expected to just eat the cost. But surprisingly, the person who got the random $1000 I accidentally sent, EZ0010, returned the BTC ~immediately. Thanks to him!

The lessons:
 - There are good, honest people in the world.
 - Always double-check your addresses before sending, even when you've done the exact same type of transaction a million times before.


Some wallets/exchanges don't let you send below a certain amount. If you overpay due to that, then your payment will be accepted, but that small amount will not be refunded. You also won't be refunded if you're banned or change your mind about paying. But accidental overpayments are refunded.

The forum sells ad space in the area beneath the first post of every topic page. This income is used primarily to cover hosting costs and to pay moderators for their work (there are many moderators, so each moderator gets only a small amount -- moderators should be seen as volunteers, not employees). Any leftover amount is typically either saved for future expenses or otherwise reinvested into the forum or the ecosystem.

There are 10 total ad slots which are randomly rotated. So one ad slot has a one in ten chance of appearing. Nine of the slots are for sale here. Ads appear only on topic pages with more than one post. Hero/Legendary members, Donators, VIPs, and moderators have the ability to disable ads; these people don't increase the impression stats for your ads.

Design & ad restrictions

Ad text may not contain lies, misrepresentation, or inappropriate language. Ads may not link directly to any NSFW page. No ICOs^[1], loggable mixers^[2], banks, funds, or anything that a person can be said to "invest" in; I may very rarely make exceptions if you convince me that you are ultra legit, but don't count on it. Ads may be rejected for other reasons, and I may remove ads even after they are accepted.

See the ad design rules for info on designing forum ads.

When advertising a new service, you should always check with me in advance whether your service is OK. I will sometimes accept bids of people who don't do this, but such people are taking the risk of being rejected at the last minute. It's also a good idea for you to have me check your ad's HTML+CSS in advance, especially if this is your first time advertising.

Duration/timing

 - Ad slots won in this auction will run from noon January 10 (US Eastern time) to noon February 8. (29 days.)
 - This auction will end sometime between January 4 and January 6, but January 4 is most likely.
 - You must pay within 48 hours of the auction ending. Only Bitcoin is accepted. If you fail to pay in time, your ad slots may be resold, and in cases where I feel that you're acting in bad faith, I may even give you a negative trust rating.
 - You must send me a valid ad (ie. one not breaking any of the styling or other rules) before noon January 9. If you fail to send a valid ad in time, then the ad round will start without you, and you will be "burning time". You can still send an ad after the deadline, and usually this ad will be put up fairly quickly, but no particular timeline is guaranteed after the deadline.
 - If extended downtime or similar issues cause your ad not to be displayed for a long time, we generally give prorated refunds (USD-denominated) for the lost time, but this is not guaranteed.

Stats

Exact historical impression counts per slot:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstats

Info about the current ad slots:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adinfo

Auction rules

New members are likely to have their bids rejected unless they PM me first, telling me what they're going to advertise. New members might also be required to pay some amount in advance. Additionally, if you have never purchased forum ad space before, and it is not blatantly obvious what you're going to advertise, say what you're going to advertise in your first bid, or tell me in a PM.

Post your bids in this thread. Prices must be stated in mBTC per slot. (10 mBTC = 0.01 BTC.) You must state the maximum number of slots you want. When the auction ends, the highest bidders will have their slots filled until all nine slots are filled.

So if someone bids for 9 slots @ 50 mBTC and this is the highest bid, then he'll get all 9 slots. If the two highest bids are 9 slots @ 40 mBTC and 1 slot @ 50 mBTC, then the first person will get 8 slots and the second person will get 1 slot.

The notation "2 @ 50" means 2 slots for 50 mBTC each. Not 2 slots for 50 mBTC total.

- When you post a bid, the bids in your previous posts are considered to be automatically canceled. You can put multiple bids in one post, however, like "5 @ 10 and 1 @ 50".
- All bid prices must be evenly divisible by 2 mBTC.
- The bidding starts at 2 mBTC.
- The auction ends at an arbitrary time between January 4 and January 6. Times closer to 8:00AM January 4 (US Eastern time) are more likely.
- If two people bid at the same price, the person who bid first will have his slots filled first.

If these rules are confusing, look at some of the past forum ad auctions to see how it's done.

I reserve the right to reject bids, even days after the bid is made.

Price flattening

At the end of the auction, after the winning bids are all determined, I will do a "price flattening" operation. This has no effect on which bids actually win, but is instead just meant to make the prices actually paid by bidders more equal. For each bid, in order of lowest to greatest price/slot, I will reduce each bid's price/slot to the highest value which is equal to or only the minimum increment greater than the next-lower bid. This allows you to bid higher prices without worrying so much, but you still mustn't bid more than you're willing to pay. Example:


Payment, etc.

You must pay for your slots within 48 hours of receiving the payment address. Otherwise your slots may be sold to someone else, and I might even give you a negative trust rating. I will send you the payment information via forum PM from this account ("theymos", user ID 35) after announcing the auction results in this thread. You might receive false payment information from scammers pretending to be me. They might even have somewhat similar usernames. Be careful.

---

[1]: For the purposes of forum ads, an ICO is any token, altcoin, or other altcoin-like thing which meets any of the following criteria: it is primarily run/backed by a company; it is substantially, fundamentally centralized in either operation or coin distribution; or it is not yet possible for two unprivileged users of the system to send coins directly to each other in a P2P way. The intention here is to allow community efforts to advertise things like Litecoin, but not to allow ICO funding, even when the ICO is disguised in various ways.
[2]: A loggable mixer is a service marketed primarily for improving transaction privacy which accepts full custody of cryptocurrency for a time and has the technical ability to log where the cryptocurrency comes from and goes to (even if they promise not to log).

Over the years, I have had countless Satoshi impersonators try to con me into something or other. Almost always, they are immediately recognizable just because they act like they imagine a demigod would act. The Satoshi everyone has in their heads is a symbol, a character in a story where a superhuman mysteriously appears, does magic, and then mysteriously disappears. This symbol is not reflective of any real person who has ever existed, so impersonators' attempts are usually laughably bad.

Before and after Satoshi uploaded code or posted or sent PMs, he ate, drank, slept, worried, paid bills, etc. I'm sure at some point he got sick and puked his guts out. I'm sure he had fears and regrets. He was the same sort of flesh as you and I. But the Satoshi people know is not this real person, and is instead a "historical figure", which is to say that a small handful of things that the real person did and said have been diluted into the cultural milieu to produce an imaginary character whose existence aligns with what we want or expect of such a character in the context of the broader narrative. If someone condensed a few of your most notable quotes and accomplishments into a few paragraphs in a history book, selected and worded to align with the overall themes of that book, how much of "you" would that represent?

I didn't know Satoshi on any sort of personal level, so I'm not particularly saying that people "have him all wrong": I'm just generally very dismissive of the idea that anyone is superhuman. See my Satoshi's Lesson article, which has the same theme. It's important to recognize that there is no wall separating people like you and "notable" people. If you believe that there is, then you create that wall, and thereby imprison yourself.

I liked dealing with Satoshi when I did (which wasn't all that often), and I respected him a great deal. He had an incredible amount of "arrogance" in the sense that he saw seemingly-impossible challenges and believed (correctly) that he could conquer them, but yet he had zero arrogance in the commonly-understood sense. He was willing to give help to and accept help from people who knew and accomplished far less than him on the whole. He treated even me with respect, even though I was a 19-year-old excessively-individualistic idiot in 2010. I tend to remember Satoshi as a person who figured out what needed to be done, used all of his aptitude to get it done, and rarely got distracted by human failings like pride or fear. (Of course, this perception may well be more of a symbol in my head than an accurate image of a real person.)

I heard about this when it happened and at that time thought about the impact on bitcointalk.org, but AFAICT we were never affected, since we don't use any Java software (neither software we've written nor off-the-shelf software). Since the issue is so pervasive, it is conceivable that we could've been affected via a service provider or through some method that I haven't thought of, but I don't think so.

I was pleasantly surprised that the three millionth user turned out not to be a spambot, so I assigned them the title. I don't know who they are, and they wouldn't have even known that I was the one to do it.

I checked, and you definitely were eligible for at least the last 2 shuffles. (I didn't check further back.) It is very unlucky: looks like about a 0.4% chance to get skipped 4 months in a row.

This month 135 users were eligible.

Old:

New:

Auction ended, final result:
Slots mBTC/Slot Person
9 48 Hhampuz

Note that I will not post the next auction for a while.

Notes:
 - Alpha Affiliates needs to prepay to the address bc1qhahytvh6zalqpcqg8f2ugprh46eq33hqjp0u4s before his bids will be accepted. As long as that address has zero BTC, you can assume that his bids will be rejected.
 - I'm waiting for more information from Phore. His bids may be rejected.
 - GamblersArea and bitblade are cleared to bid.

Current auction status:
Slots mBTC/Slot Person
9 48 Hhampuz

I'm relieved that this kid's life is only 75% ruined instead of 99% ruined, and it's certainly a good and important result for the right to bear arms and defend yourself. Still, Rittenhouse's life will be very rough, two people are dead, and one is permanently disabled.

It'll be difficult for him not to lean into his right-wing celebrity status, since his defense was largely funded by them and the media has already painted him as a far-right extremist, but if I was him I'd really try to distance myself from that, or else he'll never be able to escape it. It'll be interesting to see what his first statements are after being acquitted. I'd like to see him express regret at (unintentionally/stupidly) contributing to these three casualties, even though the shootings themselves were defensive; in hindsight, there are a great many things that he could've done differently to avoid anyone getting shot.


A few of them were probably on the fence about whether he'd been provoking the people who later attacked him. The prosecution alleged, based in part on fuzzy, disputed video/image evidence, that he was wielding his gun in an aggressive way earlier.

Some of the jurors will probably give interviews in the coming days, at which time we'll know more about what they were thinking.

Rittenhouse was very stupid to put himself into this position. If I'd known him and he'd told me he was going to go into the middle of a riot armed, I'd say, "Are you braindead? You're either going to get killed or arrested." But he was 17, so how much wisdom can you expect out of him? It seems that he put himself into this position partially out of a desire to help people (which is laudable), probably moreso out of ego, but certainly not with the intention of hurting anyone.

It's always a tragedy when anyone dies. The first guy who Rittenhouse shot seems to have been a seriously messed up, violent person who bore full fault in that confrontation, though even his death is a tragedy. The second and third shootings were especially tragic since it seems that they might've honestly thought that Rittenhouse was some sort of mass murderer going on a shooting spree. That said, it's clear to me that Rittenhouse was acting in self-defense when he shot them: they were clearly trying to kill or severely hurt him, and Rittenhouse did not provoke them. It doesn't matter in Rittenhouse's case what the people attacking him thought they were doing.

I hope that he's acquitted of all charges, and the evidence strongly supports that, though I would understand the "recklessly endangering public safety" charges sticking, since open-carrying during a riot obviously turns up the temperature. (I would not agree with him being found guilty of reckless endangerment: the appearance of a riot shouldn't negate your right to defend yourself and your property. But it's a much more understandable charge than saying that he wasn't acting in self-defense in the shootings themselves.)

Rittenhouse's life is pretty much over regardless of the result. He's going to endure harassment and attempts on his life constantly, and his only real career prospect is probably to lean into his history here and become a sort of right-wing celebrity, which is a terrible life to have to lead. What an absolute tragedy all around.

The whole way that this was spun is disgusting. It reminds me a lot of the Zimmerman case, where a Hispanic person who voted for Obama shot someone in obvious self-defense, and this was spun as a "white supremacist hate crime" by politicians as a despicable, cynical way to rile up their base.