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981  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Active Shooting at Pittsburgh Synagogue 7+ dead already on: October 28, 2018, 07:25:24 AM
The political reaction in here and in the media reminds me of this video from 2008.
982  Economy / Speculation / Re: How will the next big recession affect the BTC price? on: October 27, 2018, 05:11:30 PM
Really?  We just got done recovering from the 2008-09 disaster, which to me doesn't seem that long ago.  I'll admit that I don't exactly have my finger on the pulse of the global economy, but what signs are pointing to another recession?

A lot of mainstream analysts have been talking about it for a while, even before this recent stock market crash. I'd say that the general analyst consensus is that at least a mild recession will start in 9-24 months. Keep in mind that most people believe that the market is governed by the business cycle, where expansion, occurring for about two-thirds of the time, is punctuated by periods of recessions occupying the other third of the time. (Though personally, I suspect that the business cycle is to a large extent a self-fulfilling prophecy...)

Commonly-cited reasons for the end of expansion and entering recession include:
 - Higher and increasing interest rates
 - Tariff worries
 - Possible slowdown in the rate of growth
 - Various economic indicators such as the steepening yield curve, high employment, housing data, etc.
 
In addition to that, I think (though most mainstream analysts would disagree) that the US economy is built on a house of cards:
 - The federal budget is totally unsustainable, and the political climate is nowhere near a point where it could be fixed.
 - The stock market has been rising unnaturally since at least 2011. The S&P500 Shiller PE Ratio just dropped a bit, but it's currently at 30, which is still ridiculous. I think there's been too much money floating around, and nobody's had anywhere else to put it but the stock market. (Rising interest rates are changing where this money is going a bit.)
 - The fractional-reserve, debt-based economy is generally unstable.

So I wouldn't be surprised if the next recession is as bad or worse than 2008. In order to prevent these massive crises (which will probably ultimately culminate in the USD's total failure someday), very serious and painful changes would be necessary, and I don't see it happening.
983  Other / Meta / Re: sent the wrong bitcoin to the paid address of the forum, on: October 26, 2018, 07:43:45 PM
I already refunded it yesterday. (OP's topic was split from elsewhere: he posted in a bunch of random topics while also sending me 3 PMs in rapid succession...)

He paid to his account-unique address, so verification wasn't a problem. If he'd paid to a different address, then I would require a signature.

This is very rare to happen

It's less rare than you might think; it happens once or twice a year, sometimes with very large amounts...
984  Other / Politics & Society / Re: AI represents our desire to create God on: October 25, 2018, 12:13:27 PM
There's definitely a strong element of that, especially in the surprisingly large community of techies who want to upload everyone's minds into a simulated universe. See for example Roko's basilisk, which is a highly religious idea. The AI=God idea is old and kind of obvious, and can be seen for example in the 1994 novella The Metamorphosis of Prime Intellect. (Probably there are much older references to the idea, but that's one I know off-hand.)

That said, even if everyone was already true believers of some religion, AI (even superintelligent AI, if done carefully) would be an obvious possibility with clear benefits. So I definitely wouldn't say that "creating God" is the main goal of / impetus for AI research.

I think that the human mind has a built-in strong tendency toward religion, and people who eschew traditional religions often (but not always) end up replacing it with something else, even unknowingly. Examples include vague spiritual beliefs, politics, and AI. Another one which I don't often see mentioned in this context is the simulation hypothesis, which is almost exactly deism. In fact, the simulation hypothesis is similar in some ways to the ancient cosmological argument for the existence of god.
985  Economy / Speculation / How will the next big recession affect the BTC price? on: October 24, 2018, 05:29:27 PM
US and global markets are looking shaky. Probably things will recover in the short-term, but a long-lasting global recession doesn't seem far off. There are good reasons to think that it might be even worse than the "great recession", though you never know. How will this affect the BTC price?

On one hand, a lot of people might want to sell their BTC and move back to traditional investments while they're low, especially if they got into BTC in the first place as a way of getting better return-on-investment vs already-peaked traditional investments. On the other hand, people might lose faith in the fiat economy entirely, especially those who have already taken the step of buying BTC.
986  Other / Meta / Re: Fire Hydrants on: October 22, 2018, 07:15:53 AM
I was trying to think of solutions for alternative captchas as bypassing them automatically is obviously a huge problem with bots, but I get the feeling that if there was one it would have been implemented by now (and there are probably far smarter people than me working on this).

I don't think that captcha bypassing is a huge problem on the forum. The current captcha is sufficient.

Modern reCaptcha can't be automatically bypassed. If you want to bypass them programmatically, there are many sites where they have people solve them for you. Typically, the client wanting to solve the captcha will act as an HTTP proxy so that the solver uses their IP, and it's undetectable. They charge somewhere around $0.003 per recaptcha. (Don't like doing captchas? Imagine solving them for a living...)
987  Other / Meta / Re: Fire Hydrants on: October 22, 2018, 06:14:20 AM
My dilemma is about signs that slightly go in the next square, should I check it, shouldn't I not....

How it works is that Google compares what you answer to what thousands of other people have answered. So you want to answer what you think other people did, regardless of whether it's absolutely correct. It's best in my experience to be quite lazy, not selecting small edges or small examples of the keyword visible in the background.

I've been thinking that you could maybe make a better and perhaps less frustrating captcha by showing people a randomly-generated inkblot, asking "what do you see?" with a free-form text field, and comparing their response to everyone else's responses to that inkblot, using the same principle as recaptcha.
988  Economy / Reputation / Re: Is this not merit abuse really ? on: October 21, 2018, 02:28:55 PM
Well, it appears that your source merit either wasn't upped to 250 a month ago like me, or you are just letting it expire. Theymos gave me instructions to try and do my best to distribute all of it. I'm doing the best that I can; yet have already had complaints. I really despise this statistic. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=merit;stats=topsendban Now I am on the list that appears to point out merit abuse suspects. I was originally very honored to become a merit source. But now I feel that my reputation is at stake with every single merit that I am obligated to distribute. I know that I only have black trust at the moment. However, I keep checking my trust rating to make sure some DT member doesn't decide to red tag me because they feel that I am being "abusive" or derelict in my duty.

If they complain about amounts, tell them to complain to me. It's best if sources try to exhaust their source allocations, even if it means giving posts higher amounts than is typical. If you have 150 source merit and you only see 3 merit-worthy posts in a month, then I'd rather you over-give each of them 50 merit than let the merit expire. That way there are more people capable of sending merit, and the "merit economy" is less top-down.

If a DT member tags you for something stupid involving merit (ie. probably anything less than selling merit), then they're not going to be a DT member for much longer.

Aside from that, if people complain about whether things deserve merit at all, then that's something to perhaps think about, but if you conclude that they're wrong, then that's that. You don't need to stress about it or defend yourself constantly. It's conceivable that someday you and I will end up disagreeing too much about this stuff and I'll remove your source status, but it's really not a big deal.

The topsendban list is just a first indication of abuse, and many excellent people are on it. Your place on there acts as a sort of benchmark: eg. chandra12 has a similar score there, but whereas you are an extremely active merit-giver with a diverse selection of posts merited (most of which anyone would agree with), chandra12 only has two large merit sends. His behavior in comparison to yours while having a similar topsendban score is what creates a strong abuse impression.

I appreciate the work of you and other sources who take it seriously!
989  Economy / Invites & Accounts / Re: Hacked invites/accounts are not allowed on: October 21, 2018, 12:02:08 PM
Accounts on sites that require KYC such as bank accounts, PayPal, etc. are assumed to be hacked unless you explain why they're not hacked.
990  Other / Meta / Re: Merit giving mistake. Page reload resulted in multiple merits given. Suggestion. on: October 20, 2018, 03:38:41 AM
I don't really understand how this can happen. Browsers are supposed to warn you before resubmitting POST forms.
991  Other / Meta / Re: Hidden Text 123456789101112131415161718192021222324 In ANN Threads on: October 20, 2018, 03:22:25 AM
You can also use spaces, but then your post is more limited in length because each space beyond the first is converted to   internally and therefore counts as 6 characters.
992  Other / Politics & Society / Re: China Launching an Artificial Moon on: October 20, 2018, 03:15:20 AM
The Russians did something very similar in 1992: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Znamya_(satellite)

Seems like just a publicity stunt.
993  Economy / Auctions / Advertise on this forum - Round 258 on: October 18, 2018, 10:52:07 PM
The forum sells ad space in the area beneath the first post of every topic page. This income is used primarily to cover hosting costs and to pay moderators for their work (there are many moderators, so each moderator gets only a small amount -- moderators should be seen as volunteers, not employees). Any leftover amount is typically either saved for future expenses or otherwise reinvested into the forum or the ecosystem.

Ads are allowed to contain any non-annoying HTML/CSS style. No images, JavaScript, or animation. Ads must appear 3 or fewer lines tall in my browser (Firefox, 900px wide). Ad text may not contain lies, misrepresentation, or inappropriate language. Ads may not link directly to any NSFW page. No ICOs[1], banks, funds, or anything else that a person can be said to "invest" in; I may very rarely make exceptions if you convince me that you are ultra legit, but don't count on it. Ads may be rejected for other reasons, and I may remove ads even after they are accepted.

There are 10 total ad slots which are randomly rotated. So one ad slot has a one in ten chance of appearing. Nine of the slots are for sale here. Ads appear only on topic pages with more than one post, and only for people using the default theme.

Duration

- Your ads are guaranteed to be up for at least 7 days.
- I usually try to keep ads up for no more than 8 or 9 days.
- Sometimes ads might be up for longer, but hopefully no longer than 12 days. Even if past rounds sometimes lasted for long periods of time, you should not rely on this for your ads.

Stats

Exact historical impression counts per slot:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstats

Info about the current ad slots:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adinfo

Ad blocking

Hero/Legendary members, Donators, VIPs, and moderators have the ability to disable ads. I don't expect many people to use this option. These people don't increase the impression stats for your ads.

I try to bypass Adblock Plus filters as much as possible, though this is not guaranteed. It is difficult or impossible for ABP filters to block the ad space itself without blocking posts. However, filters can match against the URLs in your links, your CSS classes and style attributes, and the HTML structure of your ads.

To prevent matches against URLs: I have some JavaScript which fixes links blocked by ABP. You must tell me if you want this for your ads. When someone with ABP and JavaScript enabled views your ads, your links are changed to a special randomized bitcointalk.org URL which redirects to your site when visited. People without ABP are unaffected, even if they don't have JavaScript enabled. The downsides are:
- ABP users will see the redirection link when they hover over the link, even if they disable ABP for the forum.
- Getting referral stats might become even more difficult.
- Some users might get a warning when redirecting from https to http.

To prevent matching on CSS classes/styles: Don't use inline CSS. I can give your ad a CSS class that is randomized on each pageload, but you must request this.

To prevent matching against your HTML structure: Use only one <a> and no other tags if possible. If your ads get blocked because of matching done on something inside of your ad, you are responsible for noticing this and giving me new ad HTML.

Designing ads

Make sure that your ads look good when you download and edit this test page:
https://bitcointalk.org/ad_test.html
Also read the comments in that file.

Images are not allowed no matter how they are created (CSS, SVG, or data URI). Occasionally I will make an exception for small logos and such, but you must get pre-approval from me first.

The maximum size of any one ad is 51200 bytes.

I will send you more detailed styling rules if you win slots in this auction (or upon request).

Auction rules

You must be at least a Jr Member to bid. If you are not a Jr Member and you really want to bid, you should PM me first. Tell me in the PM what you're going to advertise. You might be required to pay some amount in advance. Everyone else: Please quickly PM newbies who try to bid here to warn them against impersonation scammers.

If you have never purchased forum ad space before, and it is not blatantly obvious what you're going to advertise, say what you're going to advertise in your first bid, or tell me in a PM.

Post your bids in this thread. Prices must be stated in BTC per slot. You must state the maximum number of slots you want. When the auction ends, the highest bidders will have their slots filled until all nine slots are filled.

So if someone bids for 9 slots @ 5 BTC and this is the highest bid, then he'll get all 9 slots. If the two highest bids are 9 slots @ 4 BTC and 1 slot @ 5 BTC, then the first person will get 8 slots and the second person will get 1 slot.

The notation "2 @ 5" means 2 slots for 5 BTC each. Not 2 slots for 5 BTC total.

- When you post a bid, the bids in your previous posts are considered to be automatically canceled. You can put multiple bids in one post, however.
- All bid prices must be evenly divisible by 0.02.
- The bidding starts at 0.02.
- I will end the auction at an arbitrary time. Unless I say otherwise, I typically try to end auctions within a few days of 10 days from the time of this post, but unexpected circumstances may sometimes force me to end the auction anytime between 4 and 22 days from the start. I have a small bias toward ending auctions on Fridays, Sundays, and Mondays.
- If two people bid at the same price, the person who bid first will have his slots filled first.
- Bids are considered invalid and will be ignored if they do not specify both a price and a max quantity, or if they could not possibly win any slots

If these rules are confusing, look at some of the past forum ad auctions to see how it's done.

I reserve the right to reject bids, even days after the bid is made.

You must pay for your slots within 24 hours of receiving the payment address. Otherwise your slots may be sold to someone else, and I might even give you a negative trust rating. I will send you the payment information via forum PM from this account ("theymos", user ID 35) after announcing the auction results in this thread. You might receive false payment information from scammers pretending to be me. They might even have somewhat similar usernames. Be careful.

[1]: For the purposes of forum ads, an ICO is any token, altcoin, or other altcoin-like thing which meets any of the following criteria: it is primarily run/backed by a company; it is substantially, fundamentally centralized in either operation or coin distribution; or it is not yet possible for two unprivileged users of the system to send coins directly to each other in a P2P way. The intention here is to allow community efforts to advertise things like Litecoin, but not to allow ICO funding, even when the ICO is disguised in various ways.
994  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 257 on: October 18, 2018, 10:48:36 PM
Note that bids with invalid values (ie. not evenly divisible by 0.02) get rounded down to the nearest valid bid.

1 @ 0.08

BiblePay added new Charity Report Command: "exec theymos"
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5030640.msg46817992#msg46817992

Still no. I'd probably only be comfortable with BiblePay if a lot more info, news, and third-party reviews of your practices come out. As-is, I'm not particularly convinced by your responses to my previous concerns (though admittedly I don't have time to spend more than a few minutes looking at it), and I see a lot of red flags. If I was convinced that BiblePay was like "Litecoin with a bible theme and a donation thing", then I'd probably allow it.

Just want to know whether the website about ICO news is allowed to participate?

Yes, usually.

Auction ended, final result:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
1 0.12 Gunthar
1 0.12 ni23457
2 0.12 Cloudbet
2 0.12 RachelGreen
3 0.10 ChipMixer
995  Other / Meta / Re: Captcha bypass on: October 16, 2018, 11:21:17 PM
This was previously working a treat, but today on logging in I immediately got a Cloudflare page and captcha that took about 5 attempts then didn't allow me though. Managed on the second time, however.

It doesn't bypass the Cloudflare captcha, only the forum's own captcha. Whether you get a CF captcha depends on whether / how much the forum is currently being attacked and CF's idea of your IP's reputation.

There are some possible ways that I could allow bypassing the CF captcha, but they're all troublesome in various ways. Maybe I'll look into it if there are a lot of complaints about CF's captcha.
996  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Saudi Journalist Megathread on: October 16, 2018, 11:09:29 PM
we don’t think the US should go into full world police mode over something like this.

Agreed, the US doesn't need to topple every evil regime. But Saudi Arabia gets substantial support from the US; the reason that Saudi Arabia is able to have such an evil regime at all is probably because of US support. The US is basically Saudi Arabia's mercenary force. The US should absolutely stop supporting Saudi Arabia for this and many other human rights abuses.

Trump is going to roll over for the Saudis, as would any of the last few previous presidents. They're too valuable in economic and military terms. It's incredibly hypocritical and pathetic.
997  Other / Meta / Re: It may be time to remove "Multibit" from Factoids... on: October 16, 2018, 01:22:54 AM
Fixed, thanks.
998  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Where is the "New" button on Receiving Addresses of bitcoin core 0.17.0? on: October 16, 2018, 01:01:38 AM
but I'm guessing clicking Request Payment does something more on the network than just creating a new receiving address in the old window?

No, it just displays it differently.
999  Other / Meta / Re: Ads placed in the forums on: October 16, 2018, 12:55:48 AM
Maybe https://timecryptonews.com/ ?
1000  Other / Politics & Society / Re: 2020 Democratic Nominee. on: October 15, 2018, 12:59:03 PM
CNN released a poll a few days ago that has Joe Biden favored to win the nomination at 33%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 13% and Warren at 9%.

Biden would do very well against Trump if he still has enough energy at his age. (He's only 3 years older than Trump, but he looks/acts far older.) Biden isn't stained quite as much by the insane parts of the Democratic party, and he knows how to punch back without looking as crazy as Trump sometimes does. IMO Biden could win a decent chunk of the Republican base from Trump.

I don't think that the Democratic establishment will ever let Sanders win the primary, and I suspect that he couldn't win against Trump, though maybe he'd have a better chance than Cory Booker or Kamala Harris. Warren couldn't win.

I can see someone like Creepy Porn Lawyer doing something stupid like running as a third party and effectively removing any chance of Trump not getting reelected.

That'd be pretty funny, but it could also happen on the other side. Several Republicans are already calling for a primary challenge, and when they lose, they might take it as far as going independent. Jeff Flake even said that he'd prefer a Democrat over Trump in 2020. It's a huge ordeal to get on the ballot in even one state, but they could target just a few swing states with the specific goal of derailing Trump. I wonder if they're already setting up for it (maybe indicated by public records).

It'd be interesting if we had a third party win electoral votes. I've always wanted to see congress pick the president.
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