Advertising Phore itself definitely wouldn't be allowed. That's why I initially rejected their bids in the auction. Phore is definitely an "ICO-type-thing", which is explicitly banned from advertising: buying these sorts of tokens is something like buying shares in penny stocks, but even far more risky. However, I interpret this ad as advertising a product of Phore, namely the Graphene ecosystem and apps built on top of it such as their Marketplace. By analogy, I see this like Nikola advertising their fuel cell technology and their maybe-soon-to-be-available vehicles, not Nikola advertising NKLA shares. |
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In evaluating these sorts of things, I try to determine whether the ad is intended to attract investment; if it is, then it's not allowed. Just because it's possible to invest in the advertised thing doesn't mean that it must be rejected: I'm looking at the intent of the ad. I was convinced in this case that the ad is aimed at attracting interest in the technology, not attracting investment. Neither the ad nor the linked article encourages people to buy Graphene tokens. You'd actually have to do a bit of work to figure out how to buy the tokens: you'd have to research further to figure out how that Graphene tokens will be airdropped to holders of Phore, and then you'd have to buy Phore. Phore also apparently has a working marketplace app, which makes me think that the whole thing isn't complete vaporware. So my overall sense here is that Phore is actually trying to build a product, and they're trying with this ad to generate interest in the product, not to generate interest in investing in Phore/Graphene. This is allowed. (Advertised things do not have to be good/useful to be accepted, BTW. Ads are not endorsements/recommendations. I'm just trying to prevent forum users from getting scammed due to ads.)
Now, I could be missing some context here. I don't follow this space very much at all, I never heard of Phore or Graphene before this, and there's a limit to how much time I can spend time researching this stuff.
I have on many occasions rejected ads for being for investments, often very significantly reducing ad revenue for that ad round. I would've done it here without hesitation if necessary.
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This month 144 users were eligible. Old: theymos
gmaxwell
OgNasty
malevolent
yxt
Vod
A-Bolt
mprep
philipma1957
babo
Cyrus
ibminer
TookDk
vizique
Timelord2067
figmentofmyass
jeremypwr
by rallier
dbshck
greenplastic
Lydian
mindrust
Buchi-88
Lesbian Cow
willi9974
suchmoon
JayJuanGee
Rmcdermott927
DaveF
teeGUMES
examplens
minerjones
sapta
BitcoinPenny
yahoo62278
LFC_Bitcoin
sandy-is-fine
SyGambler
klarki
LoyceV
Last of the V8s
WhiteManWhite
The Pharmacist
LeGaulois
DarkStar_
asu
SFR10
phishead
TryNinja
bob123
johhnyUA
ekiller
Jet Cash
condoras
bL4nkcode
Lafu
Coin_trader
Gunthar
Yatsan
finaleshot2016
xtraelv
crwth
Ale88
duesoldi
bobita
nullius
Vispilio
imhoneer
krogothmanhattan
CryptopreneurBrainboss
KTChampions
Steamtyme
Coin-1
bavicrypto
GreatArkansas
o_e_l_e_o
vycl87
logfiles
joniboini
Agrawas
TheBeardedBaby
tvplus006
coinlocket$
dkbit98
mole0815
witcher_sense
asche
cabalism13
anonymousminer
morvillz7z
Husna QA
Bthd
fillippone
Coolcryptovator
DireWolfM14
Corrosive
TalkStar
1miau
Ratimov
Rikafip
New dooglus
gmaxwell
OgNasty
SebastianJu
yxt
A-Bolt
fronti
mprep
Dabs
Foxpup
peloso
Welsh
Mitchell
vizique
Ticked
jeremypwr
dbshck
greenplastic
hilariousandco
Avirunes
mindrust
buckrogers
Lesbian Cow
willi9974
JayJuanGee
Rmcdermott927
DaveF
examplens
nutildah
minerjones
tmfp
yahoo62278
Royse777
zazarb
LFC_Bitcoin
o_solo_miner
ezeminer
sandy-is-fine
SyGambler
klarki
LoyceV
actmyname
The Pharmacist
LeGaulois
DarkStar_
TwitchySeal
phishead
TryNinja
bob123
eddie13
johhnyUA
Jet Cash
condoras
Coin_trader
polymerbit
Yatsan
finaleshot2016
crwth
Ale88
duesoldi
Vispilio
imhoneer
wolwoo
JollyGood
RaltcoinsB
xenon131
roycilik
CryptopreneurBrainboss
El duderino_
KTChampions
bavicrypto
Veleor
o_e_l_e_o
3meek
vycl87
Maus0728
TheBeardedBaby
tvplus006
dkbit98
mole0815
witcher_sense
MoparMiningLLC
asche
cabalism13
anonymousminer
morvillz7z
Bthd
fillippone
taikuri13
abhiseshakana
madnessteat
lovesmayfamilis
DireWolfM14
Corrosive
TalkStar
efialtis
Ratimov
geophphreigh
zasad@
Rikafip |
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Note that there have been two changes in the auction rules:
First, prices should now be stated in mBTC rather than BTC. 0.01 BTC = 10 mBTC; 1 mBTC = 0.001 BTC. If people still bid amounts that are obviously in BTC, then I will understand and accept them, but for clarity, please use mBTC.
Second, both the starting price and minimum increment have been halved from 10 mBTC (0.01 BTC) to 5 mBTC (0.005 BTC).
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The forum sells ad space in the area beneath the first post of every topic page. This income is used primarily to cover hosting costs and to pay moderators for their work (there are many moderators, so each moderator gets only a small amount -- moderators should be seen as volunteers, not employees). Any leftover amount is typically either saved for future expenses or otherwise reinvested into the forum or the ecosystem. There are 10 total ad slots which are randomly rotated. So one ad slot has a one in ten chance of appearing. Nine of the slots are for sale here. Ads appear only on topic pages with more than one post. Hero/Legendary members, Donators, VIPs, and moderators have the ability to disable ads; these people don't increase the impression stats for your ads. Design & ad restrictionsAd text may not contain lies, misrepresentation, or inappropriate language. Ads may not link directly to any NSFW page. No ICOs [1], loggable mixers [2], banks, funds, or anything that a person can be said to "invest" in; I may very rarely make exceptions if you convince me that you are ultra legit, but don't count on it. Ads may be rejected for other reasons, and I may remove ads even after they are accepted. See the ad design rules for info on designing forum ads. When advertising a new service, you should always check with me in advance whether your service is OK. I will sometimes accept bids of people who don't do this, but such people are taking the risk of being rejected at the last minute. It's also a good idea for you to have me check your ad's HTML+CSS in advance, especially if this is your first time advertising. Duration- Your ads are guaranteed to be up for at least 7 days. - I usually try to keep ads up for no more than 12 days. - Sometimes ads might be up for longer, but hopefully no longer than 14 days. Even if past rounds sometimes lasted for long periods of time, you should not rely on this for your ads. StatsExact historical impression counts per slot: https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstatsInfo about the current ad slots: https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adinfoAuction rulesNew members are likely to have their bids rejected unless they PM me first, telling me what they're going to advertise. New members might also be required to pay some amount in advance. Additionally, if you have never purchased forum ad space before, and it is not blatantly obvious what you're going to advertise, say what you're going to advertise in your first bid, or tell me in a PM. Post your bids in this thread. Prices must be stated in mBTC per slot. (10 mBTC = 0.01 BTC.) You must state the maximum number of slots you want. When the auction ends, the highest bidders will have their slots filled until all nine slots are filled. So if someone bids for 9 slots @ 50 mBTC and this is the highest bid, then he'll get all 9 slots. If the two highest bids are 9 slots @ 40 mBTC and 1 slot @ 50 mBTC, then the first person will get 8 slots and the second person will get 1 slot. The notation "2 @ 50" means 2 slots for 50 mBTC each. Not 2 slots for 50 mBTC total.- When you post a bid, the bids in your previous posts are considered to be automatically canceled. You can put multiple bids in one post, however, like "5 @ 10 and 1 @ 50". - All bid prices must be evenly divisible by 5 mBTC. - The bidding starts at 5 mBTC. - I will end the auction at an arbitrary time. Unless I say otherwise, I typically try to end auctions within a few days of 10 days from the time of this post, but unexpected circumstances may sometimes force me to end the auction anytime between 4 and 22 days from the start. - If two people bid at the same price, the person who bid first will have his slots filled first. If these rules are confusing, look at some of the past forum ad auctions to see how it's done. I reserve the right to reject bids, even days after the bid is made. Price flatteningAt the end of the auction, after the winning bids are all determined, I will do a "price flattening" operation. This has no effect on which bids actually win, but is instead just meant to make the prices actually paid by bidders more equal. For each bid, in order of lowest to greatest price/slot, I will reduce each bid's price/slot to the highest value which is equal to or only the minimum increment greater than the next-lower bid. This allows you to bid higher prices without worrying so much, but you still mustn't bid more than you're willing to pay. Example: This:
Slots mBTC/Slot Person
6 200 A
1 160 B
1 80 C
1 80 D
Becomes:
Slots mBTC/Slot Person
6 90 A [step 4: reduced to 85+5=90]
1 85 B [step 3: reduced to 80+5=85]
1 80 C [step 2: same as the next-lowest, unchanged]
1 80 D [step 1: the lowest bid is always unchanged] You must pay for your slots within 24 hours of receiving the payment address. Otherwise your slots may be sold to someone else, and I might even give you a negative trust rating. I will send you the payment information via forum PM from this account ("theymos", user ID 35) after announcing the auction results in this thread. You might receive false payment information from scammers pretending to be me. They might even have somewhat similar usernames. Be careful.
[1]: For the purposes of forum ads, an ICO is any token, altcoin, or other altcoin-like thing which meets any of the following criteria: it is primarily run/backed by a company; it is substantially, fundamentally centralized in either operation or coin distribution; or it is not yet possible for two unprivileged users of the system to send coins directly to each other in a P2P way. The intention here is to allow community efforts to advertise things like Litecoin, but not to allow ICO funding, even when the ICO is disguised in various ways.[2]: A loggable mixer is a service marketed primarily for improving transaction privacy which accepts full custody of cryptocurrency for a time and has the technical ability to log where the cryptocurrency comes from and goes to (even if they promise not to log). |
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I decided to accept Phore's bids. Auction ended, final result:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
2 0.04 DogecoinMachine
1 0.03 Phore
3 0.03 lightlord
3 0.03 Stunna
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NoBuffZone's bids will not be accepted.
I may reconsider my rejection of Phore; I'm waiting for more info. I'm also waiting for more info from ColorlessK.
Slots BTC/Slot Person
2 0.04 DogecoinMachine
1 0.03 Phore [tentative]
7 0.02 ColorlessK [tentative]
1 0.01 Bitcoin Gambling
1 0.01 oncebitten3
3 0.01 Stunna
2 0.01 apliki
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4 @ 0.01
Rejected: ICO-type-things and ads which seem aimed primarily at attracting investment are not allowed; see the rules. 1 @ 0.01
This bid may be rejected; I'm waiting for more info. The minimum increment is 0.01 BTC. I interpret bids with invalid increments as being at the next lower valid bid amount. Current auction status: Slots BTC/Slot Person
2 0.04 DogecoinMachine [price paid would be flattened]
1 0.01 Bitcoin Gambling
1 0.01 oncebitten3
1 0.01 NoBuffZone [tentative]
3 0.01 Stunna
2 0.01 aplikiThe auction continues. |
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Just so nobody's disappointed: I have absolutely nothing planned for the 11th anniversary. The stuff for the 10th was just because a decade of existence is so significant. I only first looked up what day should properly be the anniversary day a couple of years ago -- prior to the 10th, it was never really remarked upon.
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The forum sells ad space in the area beneath the first post of every topic page. This income is used primarily to cover hosting costs and to pay moderators for their work (there are many moderators, so each moderator gets only a small amount -- moderators should be seen as volunteers, not employees). Any leftover amount is typically either saved for future expenses or otherwise reinvested into the forum or the ecosystem. There are 10 total ad slots which are randomly rotated. So one ad slot has a one in ten chance of appearing. Nine of the slots are for sale here. Ads appear only on topic pages with more than one post. Hero/Legendary members, Donators, VIPs, and moderators have the ability to disable ads; these people don't increase the impression stats for your ads. Design & ad restrictionsAd text may not contain lies, misrepresentation, or inappropriate language. Ads may not link directly to any NSFW page. No ICOs [1], loggable mixers [2], banks, funds, or anything that a person can be said to "invest" in; I may very rarely make exceptions if you convince me that you are ultra legit, but don't count on it. Ads may be rejected for other reasons, and I may remove ads even after they are accepted. See the ad design rules for info on designing forum ads. When advertising a new service, you should always check with me in advance whether your service is OK. I will sometimes accept bids of people who don't do this, but such people are taking the risk of being rejected at the last minute. It's also a good idea for you to have me check your ad's HTML+CSS in advance, especially if this is your first time advertising. Duration- Your ads are guaranteed to be up for at least 7 days. - I usually try to keep ads up for no more than 11 days. - Sometimes ads might be up for longer, but hopefully no longer than 12 days. Even if past rounds sometimes lasted for long periods of time, you should not rely on this for your ads. StatsExact historical impression counts per slot: https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstatsInfo about the current ad slots: https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adinfoAuction rulesNew members are likely to have their bids rejected unless they PM me first, telling me what they're going to advertise. New members might also be required to pay some amount in advance. Additionally, if you have never purchased forum ad space before, and it is not blatantly obvious what you're going to advertise, say what you're going to advertise in your first bid, or tell me in a PM. Post your bids in this thread. Prices must be stated in BTC per slot. You must state the maximum number of slots you want. When the auction ends, the highest bidders will have their slots filled until all nine slots are filled. So if someone bids for 9 slots @ 0.5 BTC and this is the highest bid, then he'll get all 9 slots. If the two highest bids are 9 slots @ 0.4 BTC and 1 slot @ 0.5 BTC, then the first person will get 8 slots and the second person will get 1 slot. The notation "2 @ 0.5" means 2 slots for 0.5 BTC each. Not 2 slots for 0.5 BTC total.- When you post a bid, the bids in your previous posts are considered to be automatically canceled. You can put multiple bids in one post, however, like "5 @ 0.1 and 1 @ 0.5". - All bid prices must be evenly divisible by 0.01. - The bidding starts at 0.01. - I will end the auction at an arbitrary time. Unless I say otherwise, I typically try to end auctions within a few days of 10 days from the time of this post, but unexpected circumstances may sometimes force me to end the auction anytime between 4 and 22 days from the start. - If two people bid at the same price, the person who bid first will have his slots filled first. If these rules are confusing, look at some of the past forum ad auctions to see how it's done. I reserve the right to reject bids, even days after the bid is made. Price flatteningAt the end of the auction, after the winning bids are all determined, I will do a "price flattening" operation. This has no effect on which bids actually win. For each bid, in order of lowest to greatest price/slot, I will reduce each bid's price/slot to the highest value which is equal to or only the minimum increment greater than the next-lower bid. This allows you to bid higher prices without worrying so much, but you still mustn't bid more than you're willing to pay. Example: This:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
6 0.20 A
1 0.16 B
1 0.08 C
1 0.08 D
Becomes:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
6 0.10 A [step 4: reduced to 0.09+0.01=0.10]
1 0.09 B [step 3: reduced to 0.08+0.01=0.09]
1 0.08 C [step 2: same as the next-lowest, unchanged]
1 0.08 D [step 1: the lowest bid is always unchanged] You must pay for your slots within 24 hours of receiving the payment address. Otherwise your slots may be sold to someone else, and I might even give you a negative trust rating. I will send you the payment information via forum PM from this account ("theymos", user ID 35) after announcing the auction results in this thread. You might receive false payment information from scammers pretending to be me. They might even have somewhat similar usernames. Be careful.
[1]: For the purposes of forum ads, an ICO is any token, altcoin, or other altcoin-like thing which meets any of the following criteria: it is primarily run/backed by a company; it is substantially, fundamentally centralized in either operation or coin distribution; or it is not yet possible for two unprivileged users of the system to send coins directly to each other in a P2P way. The intention here is to allow community efforts to advertise things like Litecoin, but not to allow ICO funding, even when the ICO is disguised in various ways.[2]: A loggable mixer is a service marketed primarily for improving transaction privacy which accepts full custody of cryptocurrency for a time and has the technical ability to log where the cryptocurrency comes from and goes to (even if they promise not to log). |
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Auction ended, final result:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
5 0.07 sportsbet.io
1 0.06 oncebitten3
3 0.06 duelbits
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The forum sells ad space in the area beneath the first post of every topic page. This income is used primarily to cover hosting costs and to pay moderators for their work (there are many moderators, so each moderator gets only a small amount -- moderators should be seen as volunteers, not employees). Any leftover amount is typically either saved for future expenses or otherwise reinvested into the forum or the ecosystem. There are 10 total ad slots which are randomly rotated. So one ad slot has a one in ten chance of appearing. Nine of the slots are for sale here. Ads appear only on topic pages with more than one post. Hero/Legendary members, Donators, VIPs, and moderators have the ability to disable ads; these people don't increase the impression stats for your ads. Design & ad restrictionsAd text may not contain lies, misrepresentation, or inappropriate language. Ads may not link directly to any NSFW page. No ICOs [1], loggable mixers [2], banks, funds, or anything that a person can be said to "invest" in; I may very rarely make exceptions if you convince me that you are ultra legit, but don't count on it. Ads may be rejected for other reasons, and I may remove ads even after they are accepted. See the ad design rules for info on designing forum ads. When advertising a new service, you should always check with me in advance whether your service is OK. I will sometimes accept bids of people who don't do this, but such people are taking the risk of being rejected at the last minute. It's also a good idea for you to have me check your ad's HTML+CSS in advance, especially if this is your first time advertising. Duration- Your ads are guaranteed to be up for at least 7 days. - I usually try to keep ads up for no more than 11 days. - Sometimes ads might be up for longer, but hopefully no longer than 12 days. Even if past rounds sometimes lasted for long periods of time, you should not rely on this for your ads. StatsExact historical impression counts per slot: https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstatsInfo about the current ad slots: https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adinfoAuction rulesNew members are likely to have their bids rejected unless they PM me first, telling me what they're going to advertise. New members might also be required to pay some amount in advance. Additionally, if you have never purchased forum ad space before, and it is not blatantly obvious what you're going to advertise, say what you're going to advertise in your first bid, or tell me in a PM. Post your bids in this thread. Prices must be stated in BTC per slot. You must state the maximum number of slots you want. When the auction ends, the highest bidders will have their slots filled until all nine slots are filled. So if someone bids for 9 slots @ 0.5 BTC and this is the highest bid, then he'll get all 9 slots. If the two highest bids are 9 slots @ 0.4 BTC and 1 slot @ 0.5 BTC, then the first person will get 8 slots and the second person will get 1 slot. The notation "2 @ 0.5" means 2 slots for 0.5 BTC each. Not 2 slots for 0.5 BTC total.- When you post a bid, the bids in your previous posts are considered to be automatically canceled. You can put multiple bids in one post, however, like "5 @ 0.1 and 1 @ 0.5". - All bid prices must be evenly divisible by 0.01. - The bidding starts at 0.01. - I will end the auction at an arbitrary time. Unless I say otherwise, I typically try to end auctions within a few days of 10 days from the time of this post, but unexpected circumstances may sometimes force me to end the auction anytime between 4 and 22 days from the start. - If two people bid at the same price, the person who bid first will have his slots filled first. If these rules are confusing, look at some of the past forum ad auctions to see how it's done. I reserve the right to reject bids, even days after the bid is made. Price flatteningAt the end of the auction, after the winning bids are all determined, I will do a "price flattening" operation. This has no effect on which bids actually win. For each bid, in order of lowest to greatest price/slot, I will reduce each bid's price/slot to the highest value which is equal to or only the minimum increment greater than the next-lower bid. This allows you to bid higher prices without worrying so much, but you still mustn't bid more than you're willing to pay. Example: This:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
6 0.20 A
1 0.16 B
1 0.08 C
1 0.08 D
Becomes:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
6 0.10 A [step 4: reduced to 0.09+0.01=0.10]
1 0.09 B [step 3: reduced to 0.08+0.01=0.09]
1 0.08 C [step 2: same as the next-lowest, unchanged]
1 0.08 D [step 1: the lowest bid is always unchanged] You must pay for your slots within 24 hours of receiving the payment address. Otherwise your slots may be sold to someone else, and I might even give you a negative trust rating. I will send you the payment information via forum PM from this account ("theymos", user ID 35) after announcing the auction results in this thread. You might receive false payment information from scammers pretending to be me. They might even have somewhat similar usernames. Be careful.
[1]: For the purposes of forum ads, an ICO is any token, altcoin, or other altcoin-like thing which meets any of the following criteria: it is primarily run/backed by a company; it is substantially, fundamentally centralized in either operation or coin distribution; or it is not yet possible for two unprivileged users of the system to send coins directly to each other in a P2P way. The intention here is to allow community efforts to advertise things like Litecoin, but not to allow ICO funding, even when the ICO is disguised in various ways.[2]: A loggable mixer is a service marketed primarily for improving transaction privacy which accepts full custody of cryptocurrency for a time and has the technical ability to log where the cryptocurrency comes from and goes to (even if they promise not to log). |
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Auction ended, final result:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
1 0.09 DogecoinMachine
2 0.08 lightlord
6 0.07 sportsbet.io
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It looks like I'll probably end up being right about Biden winning, but I was right only through sheer dumb luck, since I was basing that mainly on polling, and the polling looks to be ridiculously off across the board. I thought that the polling methodology which these pollsters use seemed reasonable & science-based, and would probably be more accurate than 2016 (which wasn't even really that inaccurate), but I guess these pollsters actually have no idea what they're doing. Maybe the whole idea of random sampling is just too difficult to perform nowadays because nobody answers their phones, and online panels are self-selected rather than truly random. The big polling misses two presidential elections in a row is one of the main stories here, and the polling industry is going to have to make major changes if they want anyone to take them seriously going forward.
There's a chance that Trump could still pull it off, but it's difficult from here. He definitely can't lose GA or NC, which it looks like he might, and then he'd have to gain one or more (depending on which) of NV, WI, MI, or PA, all of which he's behind in. If it comes down to just one or maybe two states, I could see him successfully pulling some shenanigans to get a bunch of Democratic ballots thrown out, but it's not as if it's easy to do this: the courts are not just going to rubber-stamp anything that Trump wants, even if they're full of Republican judges, and it's not even easy to find stacks of ballots that you could somehow justify throwing out and which will be sufficiently Dem-leaning. Maybe Trump will try it, but I don't see it working if he has to "steal" several states this way, and even stealing one state like this is a bit of a long shot in itself. And while he might talk tough and refuse to ever concede, he's not actually going to refuse to leave the white house on inauguration day or anything like that.
It looks like the Republicans will retain the Senate, which I'm happy about. That means at least 2 years of gridlock. Biden can still do a lot of harm through the executive branch, and he will get bipartisan agreement on things like pro-war policies, but with the Republicans intentionally trying to obstruct him as much as possible, the damage will be limited. I'm especially happy that Gary Peters will apparently lose his MI Senate seat: I've seen several hearings with him participating, and he's a neoliberal authoritarian of the worst kind. (Not sure if his replacement is any better, though...)
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ideaology.io will not be accepted. Current auction status:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
6 0.06 lightlord
1 0.06 Murat
2 0.05 DogecoinMachine
The auction continues.
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This month 142 users were eligible. Old: HostFat
gmaxwell
OgNasty
CanaryInTheMine
malevolent
qwk
fronti
mprep
philipma1957
babo
Welsh
ibminer
Timelord2067
figmentofmyass
jeremypwr
by rallier
dbshck
greenplastic
Avirunes
Lydian
mindrust
buckrogers
Buchi-88
Lesbian Cow
willi9974
suchmoon
JayJuanGee
Rmcdermott927
achow101
teeGUMES
owlcatz
examplens
nutildah
minerjones
sapta
BitcoinPenny
yahoo62278
Royse777
ezeminer
sandy-is-fine
SyGambler
klarki
LoyceV
actmyname
Last of the V8s
The Pharmacist
LeGaulois
DarkStar_
TwitchySeal
TryNinja
bob123
eddie13
johhnyUA
condoras
bL4nkcode
Coin_trader
polymerbit
Yatsan
finaleshot2016
Ale88
bobita
nullius
Baofeng
imhoneer
krogothmanhattan
JollyGood
Blacknavy
xenon131
CryptopreneurBrainboss
KTChampions
bavicrypto
GreatArkansas
Veleor
o_e_l_e_o
3meek
logfiles
joniboini
Agrawas
Maus0728
TheBeardedBaby
dkbit98
mole0815
asche
DdmrDdmr
cabalism13
anonymousminer
morvillz7z
Husna QA
fillippone
abhiseshakana
madnessteat
Coolcryptovator
lovesmayfamilis
DireWolfM14
TalkStar
1miau
YOSHIE
efialtis
Ratimov
zasad@
New: theymos
gmaxwell
OgNasty
malevolent
yxt
Vod
A-Bolt
mprep
philipma1957
babo
Cyrus
ibminer
TookDk
vizique
Timelord2067
figmentofmyass
jeremypwr
by rallier
dbshck
greenplastic
Lydian
mindrust
Buchi-88
Lesbian Cow
willi9974
suchmoon
JayJuanGee
Rmcdermott927
DaveF
teeGUMES
examplens
minerjones
sapta
BitcoinPenny
yahoo62278
LFC_Bitcoin
sandy-is-fine
SyGambler
klarki
LoyceV
Last of the V8s
WhiteManWhite
The Pharmacist
LeGaulois
DarkStar_
asu
SFR10
phishead
TryNinja
bob123
johhnyUA
ekiller
Jet Cash
condoras
bL4nkcode
Lafu
Coin_trader
Gunthar
Yatsan
finaleshot2016
xtraelv
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-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA256
I agree to the charity bet under nullius's terms (*). If Donald Trump
wins the presidency, I will donate 0.01 BTC to the Foundation for
Economic Education (fee.org).
* ab0f29a30a551eda03ed7c1994339d767db89e71e24732243feb88844f8b541a
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
iHUEAREIAB0WIQReaz87qWEZPFybRDXGVVaT2rWR5wUCX53GhgAKCRDGVVaT2rWR
57hWAQDOb2gyJZ58E0zgReqK/uB71p3FVpmNWUBf78du1R+cVQD/eark/R8UDaMf
FfgYuJx2tzxBG7z3pcTBt+Hgb5sSqVw=
=ZnV0
-----END PGP SIGNATURE----- I was shocked when Trump won in 2016, and I hope to be shocked again, though I really don't think I will be. Good luck!  neither Trump nor Biden will change that
Very true. That IRS case was after Trump had been in office for several years. Both Trump and Biden will move the US more toward authoritarianism, just with slightly different flavors and degrees. |
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If anyone else trustworthy wants to join in, I'd be up for making the same charity-bet several more times. Would any Americans care to suggest a nondenominational, nonpartisan American gun rights organization that (a) does not block Tor at their website, and (b) accepts anonymous Bitcoin donations at a publicly known address? (Too bad about blockchain privacy; payment of the bet must be verifiable somehow.) Most charities are using crypto payment processors nowadays, which is nice for avoiding address reuse, but bad for verification. Probably we'll just have to use one of these and post a screenshot of the receipt, which is not truly verifiable, but this'll be among trusted forum members anyway. The New Civil Liberties Alliance has done some gun-rights-related cases, though it's not their focus. If I lose the bet, I might donate to the Foundation for Economic Education. Both accept donations via The Giving Block, which allows anonymous BTC donations. |
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I don't do "real" betting. I'd do a modified bet (with you and/or eddie13 and/or other reputable forum members) where the loser has to donate 0.01 BTC to a charity of his choice.
To be clear: I'm not at all certain that Trump will lose, and although I don't like or support him, I'd prefer that he win over Biden. But AFAICT his chance of winning isn't even 25%, so taking a bet at even odds makes sense.
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It has become difficult to conduct polling with the advent of the cell phone, and the outrageous number of spam calls in recent years have made it even more difficult.
If Trump wins, it will indicate that polling has utterly failed, which would be interesting. However, the 2016 polls weren't actually that far off, with most being within their margins of error; it was mainly an issue of people ignoring the margins of error and "just knowing" that Trump couldn't possibly win. Now the situation is more-or-less reversed: a lot of people "just know" that the polls are wrong and Trump will somehow pull it off, so they're baking in a several-point swing from current polls. However, if the election were held today, polls would have to be much more wrong than they were in 2016 for Trump to win, and if pollsters overcorrected as I suspect, then the real result may swing against Trump compared to polls, not even for him. While there are several very bad things about Trump, I think that a Trump victory would be far better than a Biden victory. Trump is more anti-war and anti-regulation, and he's much less effective at actually getting the government to do things. It'd also lead to increased distrust of government and perhaps some serious anti-federalist and secessionist movements among blue states, which is excellent from a libertarian perspective. And on a personal level I'd also find it hilarious to see Democrats' reaction if Trump pulls off a surprise victory again. But I just don't think that it's going to happen. The best we can probably hope for is that the Republicans retain the Senate and we get at least 2 years of gridlock, though even this is in serious doubt. |
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