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201  Other / Meta / April fools 2020 "virus" on: April 02, 2020, 12:06:59 AM
How it worked is that whenever a post was made, an infection had a 50% chance of passing from the new post to the previous post, or from the previous post to the new post. In other words, it was passed between adjacent posts. (But the random number generation was deterministic, so you couldn't "force it" by repeatedly deleting&reposting something.)

Asymptomatic infection had been happening for about 12 hours before symptoms started appearing. There was only one "patient zero", Sanitough, who I chose by looking at the latest posts at an arbitrary point in time and picking the most recent one which mentioned "virus". It was basically random, and definitely not meant as any statement about Sanitough.

On Apr 1, symptoms started appearing, though the spread of the virus continued exactly as before. After 30 minutes, your name got corrupted; after 3 hours, your posts got increasingly corrupted depending on the amount of time since you were infected. The roughly 150 people infected before Mar 31 @ 23:30 had their symptoms shifted forward in time, so they ended up as "asymptomatic carriers" for up to ~12 hours.

Here's data on the virus's spread. Note that I designed this "forum virus" to be easy-to-implement and interesting; my goal was not to create any sort of realistic coronavirus model. I suppose it could perhaps serve as an illustrative example of some general concepts, though, such as exponential spread.

Happy April Fools, and stay safe & sane in these unusual times!
202  Other / Meta / Re: [April Fools] This better not be what I think it is... on: April 01, 2020, 07:05:43 PM
That confirms it; theymos apparently thinks it's funny to joke about a disease outbreak that (by my guesstimate) will probably directly kill at least a million people

Roll Eyes If you choose to see-as-evil acts which were clearly done in the spirit of fun & good faith, then you're creating demons for your personal living hell...

There is a rare worldwide shared cultural experience going on in the form of the pandemic and the resulting unprecedented social distancing policies. It's similar to a world war in terms of its widespread cultural significance. So this little game came to my mind to connect with it. As with several past bitcointalk.org April Fools things, it's more of a new/weird/fun way for people to interact with the forum and generate discussion, not a joke as such. Certainly it wasn't meant to somehow poke fun at the many real tragedies created by the coronavirus situation; it was meant to connect with the huge thing dominating the minds/lives of basically everyone on Earth.
203  Other / Politics & Society / Re: 2020 Democrats on: March 30, 2020, 09:40:50 PM
It's funny how a lot of Democrats are feeling buyer's remorse with Biden now, and are longing for someone else. On PredictIt's "Who will be President?" right now, the odds are:
 - Trump 50%
 - Biden 40%
 - Cuomo 6%
 - Sanders 4%
 - Pence 3%

That 40% Biden number is pretty shocking, since he's the presumptive Democratic nominee. I wonder if the DNC will actually change the rules at this point in order to pick someone else. It's a wild idea, though they can do it.

How coronavirus will impact the general election is unpredictable. There seems to be a "rally around the flag" effect which is boosting Trump right now, but that won't last until November, and the media is slamming Trump's handling of the virus constantly. Trump has also lost the huge advantage that was the apparently-roaring economy. On the other hand, Biden has been performing terribly.

Trump will claim credit for the $1200 that most Americans will get, and he will claim credit for turning the economy around "even through wartime" if the economy does indeed start to recover by November. The government/Fed actions are pretty terrible long-term, but they may be enough to juice up the economy by November, possibly even to the point where a lot of people feel as if the whole quarantine thing was sort of like a government-sponsored, Trump-led paid vacation for a few months. Keep in mind that in the rust belt, $1200 goes a lot further than in eg. California: $1200/adult may be enough for 3 months' rent in many areas.

If a lot of people in swing states start knowing people who have died from the virus, or if the economy enters a death spiral from which it hasn't even really started to extricate itself by November, or if the holes that have been created in the supply chain start creating serious shortages, then Trump would be in trouble.
204  Other / Meta / Re: Is it allowed to post in Local Section not belonging to you on: March 30, 2020, 08:27:27 PM
The local sections are primarily divisions based on language. The moderators of each local section are allowed to set different standards for how fluent your posts have to be, but you should never be excluded based on residency/ethnicity/nationality.

India is unusual because they mainly speak English, and also they don't currently have a local mod. I suppose that as long as your posting is on-topic and the regular posters in that section don't get annoyed, it should be OK.
205  Economy / Auctions / Advertise on this forum - Round 304 on: March 26, 2020, 09:40:00 PM
The forum sells ad space in the area beneath the first post of every topic page. This income is used primarily to cover hosting costs and to pay moderators for their work (there are many moderators, so each moderator gets only a small amount -- moderators should be seen as volunteers, not employees). Any leftover amount is typically either saved for future expenses or otherwise reinvested into the forum or the ecosystem.

There are 10 total ad slots which are randomly rotated. So one ad slot has a one in ten chance of appearing. Nine of the slots are for sale here. Ads appear only on topic pages with more than one post. Hero/Legendary members, Donators, VIPs, and moderators have the ability to disable ads; these people don't increase the impression stats for your ads.

Design & ad restrictions

Ad text may not contain lies, misrepresentation, or inappropriate language. Ads may not link directly to any NSFW page. No ICOs[1], loggable mixers[2], banks, funds, or anything that a person can be said to "invest" in; I may very rarely make exceptions if you convince me that you are ultra legit, but don't count on it. Ads may be rejected for other reasons, and I may remove ads even after they are accepted.

See the ad design rules for info on designing forum ads.

When advertising a new service, you should always check with me in advance whether your service is OK. I will sometimes accept bids of people who don't do this, but such people are taking the risk of being rejected at the last minute. It's also a good idea for you to have me check your ad's HTML+CSS in advance, especially if this is your first time advertising.

Duration

- Your ads are guaranteed to be up for at least 7 days.
- I usually try to keep ads up for no more than 11 days.
- Sometimes ads might be up for longer, but hopefully no longer than 12 days. Even if past rounds sometimes lasted for long periods of time, you should not rely on this for your ads.

Stats

Exact historical impression counts per slot:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstats

Info about the current ad slots:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adinfo

Auction rules

New members are likely to have their bids rejected unless they PM me first, telling me what they're going to advertise. New members might also be required to pay some amount in advance. Additionally, if you have never purchased forum ad space before, and it is not blatantly obvious what you're going to advertise, say what you're going to advertise in your first bid, or tell me in a PM.

Post your bids in this thread. Prices must be stated in BTC per slot. You must state the maximum number of slots you want. When the auction ends, the highest bidders will have their slots filled until all nine slots are filled.

So if someone bids for 9 slots @ 0.5 BTC and this is the highest bid, then he'll get all 9 slots. If the two highest bids are 9 slots @ 0.4 BTC and 1 slot @ 0.5 BTC, then the first person will get 8 slots and the second person will get 1 slot.

The notation "2 @ 0.5" means 2 slots for 0.5 BTC each. Not 2 slots for 0.5 BTC total.

- When you post a bid, the bids in your previous posts are considered to be automatically canceled. You can put multiple bids in one post, however, like "5 @ 0.1 and 1 @ 0.5".
- All bid prices must be evenly divisible by 0.01.
- The bidding starts at 0.01.
- I will end the auction at an arbitrary time. Unless I say otherwise, I typically try to end auctions within a few days of 10 days from the time of this post, but unexpected circumstances may sometimes force me to end the auction anytime between 4 and 22 days from the start.
- If two people bid at the same price, the person who bid first will have his slots filled first.

If these rules are confusing, look at some of the past forum ad auctions to see how it's done.

I reserve the right to reject bids, even days after the bid is made.

Price flattening

At the end of the auction, after the winning bids are all determined, I will do a "price flattening" operation. This has no effect on which bids actually win. For each bid, in order of lowest to greatest price/slot, I will reduce each bid's price/slot to the highest value which is equal to or only the minimum increment greater than the next-lower bid. This allows you to bid higher prices without worrying so much, but you still mustn't bid more than you're willing to pay. Example:

Code:
This:
Slots  BTC/Slot  Person
    6      0.20       A
    1      0.16       B
    1      0.08       C
    1      0.08       D

Becomes:
Slots  BTC/Slot  Person
    6      0.10       A [step 4: reduced to 0.09+0.01=0.10]
    1      0.09       B [step 3: reduced to 0.08+0.01=0.09]
    1      0.08       C [step 2: same as the next-lowest, unchanged]
    1      0.08       D [step 1: the lowest bid is always unchanged]

Payment, etc.

You must pay for your slots within 24 hours of receiving the payment address. Otherwise your slots may be sold to someone else, and I might even give you a negative trust rating. I will send you the payment information via forum PM from this account ("theymos", user ID 35) after announcing the auction results in this thread. You might receive false payment information from scammers pretending to be me. They might even have somewhat similar usernames. Be careful.

[1]: For the purposes of forum ads, an ICO is any token, altcoin, or other altcoin-like thing which meets any of the following criteria: it is primarily run/backed by a company; it is substantially, fundamentally centralized in either operation or coin distribution; or it is not yet possible for two unprivileged users of the system to send coins directly to each other in a P2P way. The intention here is to allow community efforts to advertise things like Litecoin, but not to allow ICO funding, even when the ICO is disguised in various ways.
[2]: A loggable mixer is a service marketed primarily for improving transaction privacy which accepts full custody of cryptocurrency for a time and has the technical ability to log where the cryptocurrency comes from and goes to (even if they promise not to log).
206  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 303 on: March 26, 2020, 09:36:06 PM
Auction ended, final result:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
3 0.11 Best_Change
1 0.11 SoloTraveler777
1 0.11 keesdewit
1 0.10 dai100905
3 0.10 sportsbet.io
207  Other / Meta / Re: banned... Bummer... Could somebody give a shout out to my businesspartners? on: March 24, 2020, 05:44:27 PM
I decided to end these 7-day bans early. Altcoin giveaways involving incentivized posting are not allowed anywhere on the forum, but certain incentivized-posting games (not altcoin giveaways) are allowed in Games & Rounds. The topic was incorrectly posted in Games & Rounds, possibly causing some understandable confusion among participants.
208  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Hybris on: March 23, 2020, 11:36:47 PM
I am something of a transhumanist, and I would like for death to be completely eliminated someday. The idea of death making people enjoy life more, or making people more virtuous, or strengthening our descendants, are largely just comforting excuses to not be so bothered by what is actually the ultimate tragedy: the apparently-inevitable destruction of each and every sentient being who has ever lived or will ever live. But you have to maintain a sane balance between hopes/dreams and practicality. The panic right now is unreal. Any of us could die of this, even those of us who are young and healthy, but you could also die of a small meteor hitting you, or a car accident, or a lightning strike, or a sudden pulmonary embolism, or any number of other things. You could take various actions to significantly reduce your risk for all of these things, but if you want to die without regret, you cannot live in constant fear.

The global shutdown demonstrates a classic mistake that people (and especially governments) often make: they see something that is clearly costly, like "doing nothing about the virus", and so they want to do something to address it, but without even thinking about the cost of this "something". The economic damage from this shutdown, which will probably have measurable negative impacts for every person on Earth for 10+ years, will very likely cause more damage from any utilitarian perspective than even doing absolutely nothing and letting a ton of people die. And there are reasonable middle-ground options aside from "doing nothing" or "shutting down the whole world", like for example only quarantining people at high risk and letting everyone else build up herd immunity. I understand the idea of "flattening the curve", and it's a fine idea from the perspective of minimizing deaths without regard for anything else, but requiring everyone to wear helmets 24/7 would also be effective at reducing deaths... It also seems as though people don't realize that grocers, restaurants, and Amazon don't just magic food/products out of thin air: by shutting down all but the endpoints of the supply chain (and also doing things like condemning "price gouging"), we're going to have real shortages at some point.

The complete capitulation to fear above all else -- freedom, good living, economic sense, etc. -- really shows me the degradation of our society, though I'm not sure of exactly the philosophical/social flaws which caused it. Maybe culture is breaking down in response to our instant/global/ever-present communication, which is very new and way outside of the evolutionary environment. It warrants a lot of thinking in the coming years. I hope that people eventually recognize the shutdown as a mistake, and don't just forget it or incorrectly consider it worthwhile. Since people are apparently even far more willing to shoot themselves in the foot and give up absolutely anything in return for some idea of "safety", it does make me even more worried about expanded authoritarianism than I was already. A lot of evil was successfully done after 9/11 in the name of "fighting terrorism" (which was never much of a realistic/practical threat to people), and now 15+ years later people seem to be even much more willing to give up their freedoms.

I was a bit heartened by Trump actually having the guts to say recently that the cure mustn't be worse than the disease, though the political winds against such an idea are hurricane-strength.

(Personally, I'm probably one of the people least negatively impacted by this virus/shutdown/recession, at least in obvious short-term ways. I was already kind of expecting a recession around Q3-Q4 2020, even. I'm moreso just dispirited at the widespread human weakness on display here.)
209  Other / Meta / Re: Moderators Doubling Membership Fee Despite People Loosing Jobs on: March 20, 2020, 07:26:44 PM
Why? The fee is supposed to be approximately 25.00 USD worth of BTC. When BTC tumbles from 10000 USD worth to 5000 USD worth, why should bitcointalk take a haircut, USD value wise?

I agree  and when we jump to 10000 a coin  it will drop back to  0.0025 btc .

I believe this has happened on another occasion.

Right. I won't hold my breath waiting for the OP to post a complaint if BTC goes to $20k and the fee ends up about a quarter of its present BTC-wise amount.

Previously I did this kind of randomly a few times each year, but lately I've taken to updating the BTC (& grin) price sometime around the 15th of every month, unless the price hasn't changed very much since last time. I like the idea of the price being somewhat stable in BTC terms, but I don't like the real value to drift too far from what's intended.
210  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2020, 09:37:02 PM
Lots of economic havoc. Everything is down; it's like the opposite of the "everything bubble" which has been happening for the last several years. Stocks are down, which is expected, but GLD, Bitcoin, and even TLT (=long-term treasuries) are also down. Where is the money disappearing off to? Are institutional investors really selling everything and then putting the cash "under their mattresses"?

I was especially surprised by long-term treasury yields. People are saying that the high yields are because the US is about to spend trillions of dollars on the coronavirus response, but I always thought (based on past behavior) that the treasury markets didn't really care about US debt. It'd be interesting if yields went way up -- to several percent --, which would turn this recession into a full-blown debt crisis as well. I don't think the Fed would let it happen, though, and I suspect that their intervention would not be enough to cause hyperinflation or any other short-term disaster, either, this time.

The Fed was already propping up the economy, and now they've turned it up to 11. At some point this is going to cause so much mal-investment & disconnection between the real economy and the financial system that everything really just collapses. It could happen this time, though maybe not: the USD being the global reserve currency strengthens it a lot. I've previously predicted that the collapse would come in a few decades. Regardless, the Fed's actions here very much reinforce my skepticism of the fiat economy in general. I'd much rather own a lot of BTC than participate fully in the Fed's/US's crazy game of Monopoly.

I think that the recession is good for BTC medium-term. People are selling now because people are selling everything now. But 2008 was what motivated the creation of Bitcoin, and the same things are happening now. I could see ATHs this year.
211  Other / Meta / Re: Is the forum prepared for heavy traffic? on: March 17, 2020, 06:45:26 PM
I don't think that any plausible amount of real traffic would typically cause issues. When you've seen the forum falter under DDoS attacks, that's the result of over 100x more traffic than usual, typically coming in a particularly inconvenient (ie. unlike-real-traffic) pattern.

Neither the virus, nor any plausible economic downturn, nor any plausible drop/rise in BTC price will cause the forum to stop functioning long-term.
212  Economy / Auctions / Advertise on this forum - Round 303 on: March 16, 2020, 03:14:49 PM
The forum sells ad space in the area beneath the first post of every topic page. This income is used primarily to cover hosting costs and to pay moderators for their work (there are many moderators, so each moderator gets only a small amount -- moderators should be seen as volunteers, not employees). Any leftover amount is typically either saved for future expenses or otherwise reinvested into the forum or the ecosystem.

There are 10 total ad slots which are randomly rotated. So one ad slot has a one in ten chance of appearing. Nine of the slots are for sale here. Ads appear only on topic pages with more than one post. Hero/Legendary members, Donators, VIPs, and moderators have the ability to disable ads; these people don't increase the impression stats for your ads.

Design & ad restrictions

Ad text may not contain lies, misrepresentation, or inappropriate language. Ads may not link directly to any NSFW page. No ICOs[1], loggable mixers[2], banks, funds, or anything that a person can be said to "invest" in; I may very rarely make exceptions if you convince me that you are ultra legit, but don't count on it. Ads may be rejected for other reasons, and I may remove ads even after they are accepted.

See the ad design rules for info on designing forum ads.

When advertising a new service, you should always check with me in advance whether your service is OK. I will sometimes accept bids of people who don't do this, but such people are taking the risk of being rejected at the last minute. It's also a good idea for you to have me check your ad's HTML+CSS in advance, especially if this is your first time advertising.

Duration

- Your ads are guaranteed to be up for at least 7 days.
- I usually try to keep ads up for no more than 11 days.
- Sometimes ads might be up for longer, but hopefully no longer than 12 days. Even if past rounds sometimes lasted for long periods of time, you should not rely on this for your ads.

Stats

Exact historical impression counts per slot:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstats

Info about the current ad slots:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adinfo

Auction rules

New members are likely to have their bids rejected unless they PM me first, telling me what they're going to advertise. New members might also be required to pay some amount in advance. Additionally, if you have never purchased forum ad space before, and it is not blatantly obvious what you're going to advertise, say what you're going to advertise in your first bid, or tell me in a PM.

Post your bids in this thread. Prices must be stated in BTC per slot. You must state the maximum number of slots you want. When the auction ends, the highest bidders will have their slots filled until all nine slots are filled.

So if someone bids for 9 slots @ 0.5 BTC and this is the highest bid, then he'll get all 9 slots. If the two highest bids are 9 slots @ 0.4 BTC and 1 slot @ 0.5 BTC, then the first person will get 8 slots and the second person will get 1 slot.

The notation "2 @ 0.5" means 2 slots for 0.5 BTC each. Not 2 slots for 0.5 BTC total.

- When you post a bid, the bids in your previous posts are considered to be automatically canceled. You can put multiple bids in one post, however, like "5 @ 0.1 and 1 @ 0.5".
- All bid prices must be evenly divisible by 0.01.
- The bidding starts at 0.01.
- I will end the auction at an arbitrary time. Unless I say otherwise, I typically try to end auctions within a few days of 10 days from the time of this post, but unexpected circumstances may sometimes force me to end the auction anytime between 4 and 22 days from the start.
- If two people bid at the same price, the person who bid first will have his slots filled first.

If these rules are confusing, look at some of the past forum ad auctions to see how it's done.

I reserve the right to reject bids, even days after the bid is made.

Price flattening

At the end of the auction, after the winning bids are all determined, I will do a "price flattening" operation. This has no effect on which bids actually win. For each bid, in order of lowest to greatest price/slot, I will reduce each bid's price/slot to the highest value which is equal to or only the minimum increment greater than the next-lower bid. This allows you to bid higher prices without worrying so much, but you still mustn't bid more than you're willing to pay. Example:

Code:
This:
Slots  BTC/Slot  Person
    6      0.20       A
    1      0.16       B
    1      0.08       C
    1      0.08       D

Becomes:
Slots  BTC/Slot  Person
    6      0.10       A [step 4: reduced to 0.09+0.01=0.10]
    1      0.09       B [step 3: reduced to 0.08+0.01=0.09]
    1      0.08       C [step 2: same as the next-lowest, unchanged]
    1      0.08       D [step 1: the lowest bid is always unchanged]

Payment, etc.

You must pay for your slots within 24 hours of receiving the payment address. Otherwise your slots may be sold to someone else, and I might even give you a negative trust rating. I will send you the payment information via forum PM from this account ("theymos", user ID 35) after announcing the auction results in this thread. You might receive false payment information from scammers pretending to be me. They might even have somewhat similar usernames. Be careful.

[1]: For the purposes of forum ads, an ICO is any token, altcoin, or other altcoin-like thing which meets any of the following criteria: it is primarily run/backed by a company; it is substantially, fundamentally centralized in either operation or coin distribution; or it is not yet possible for two unprivileged users of the system to send coins directly to each other in a P2P way. The intention here is to allow community efforts to advertise things like Litecoin, but not to allow ICO funding, even when the ICO is disguised in various ways.
[2]: A loggable mixer is a service marketed primarily for improving transaction privacy which accepts full custody of cryptocurrency for a time and has the technical ability to log where the cryptocurrency comes from and goes to (even if they promise not to log).
213  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 302 on: March 16, 2020, 03:14:31 PM
Auction ended, final result:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
2 0.09 Technomage
2 0.09 btb88.com
1 0.09 BitDouble.io
4 0.08 sportsbet.io
214  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Coronavirus Outbreak on: March 12, 2020, 10:01:13 PM
People are panicking about this to an unbelievable extent. It's a bad disease, to be sure, and some precautions should be taken, but it's not worth putting the entire economy on hold. For example, maybe it'd be a good idea to 100% lock-down nursing homes, but cancelling all university classes and sporting events, or locking down entire countries, or stopping trade between the biggest economies in the world? I think we'll look back at this in a couple of years and see this as a huge hypochondriacal overreaction which kicked off quite a damaging recession. (Though the economy was already unstable in many ways: it's not just the virus.)

Genetic engineering tech is moving along very quickly, and in a decade or two we could very well start seeing "black hat gene hackers" producing genetically-engineered viruses. After seeing the utter chaos from this only-somewhat-worse-than-average virus, I have to wonder how the world will react to those. Can you imagine seeing a new "coronavirus" pandemic every year, or one with even worse spread or symptoms?

(I recently had all of the symptoms of the virus. I wonder if I had it, or if it was just the ordinary flu. It was very unpleasant, though I got over it in a few days.)

Edit: Bonus haiku. Cheesy
Fear! Virus! Unplug:
Still see sky above my head,
Dirt below my feet
215  Other / Politics & Society / Re: 2020 Democrats on: March 11, 2020, 12:53:05 AM
Does Pence actually beleive stuff like this?

Apparently. There's a book about this, Piety and Power: Mike Pence and the Taking of the White House. (I didn't read the book, but I watched a long interview with the author.)
216  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Tax rebates to reflate the economy. on: March 11, 2020, 12:45:13 AM
This is the theory that instead of having massive bureaucracies to handle welfare (on the federal, state, and local level) that you'd just be able to have a negative income tax, right? This actually does sound like a MUCH better idea then having the government have a massive bureacracy to handle the program. Removes a lot of the issues when people think about the amount of time, paperwork, and other bullshit they go through when applying for benefits.\

My biggest thing is wanting to incentivize work alongside welfare programs. I know I've said this before on this board, but I think that the current welfare system is like a cliff, see example below:

If you make something like $25,000 a year as a single person, you're entitled to $15,000 in benefits. But if you make a dollar over $25,000 a year, then you're entititled to nothing. So if someone doesn't think they can make more then $40,000 a year there's no incentive for them to want to work any harder.

Right, things like the EITC and UBI do welfare with much less government overhead and better incentives for the recipients.

EITC is basically like increasing the wages of low-income people, so it doesn't disincentivize work. Under the current rules, if you have 2 children and your income is in the best range for EITC, the government gives you a refundable tax credit (ie. it's identical to the government just writing you a check) equal to 40% of your earned income. So if you earn $8/hr, after EITC it's like you earned $11.20/hr. The income limits are phased, so it's never rational to avoid earning more income. In addition to being a welfare system, this is also a subsidy for businesses, since they can pay lower wages while having their employees receive a higher effective wage; due to this, EITC is the most popular type of welfare among Republicans.

The payout rates and income limits for the current US EITC weirdly depends entirely on how many children you have. It has pretty low income limits across the board, and for childless people it has especially low rates and limits.
217  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Tax rebates to reflate the economy. on: March 10, 2020, 08:57:47 PM
In general, if welfare is inevitable, then things like the earned income tax credit are the best ways to do it. IMO it makes sense for libertarians to be willing to to trade expanding EITC for reducing regulations and other forms of welfare.

EITC expansion wouldn't address the current problem causing the economy/market to freak out, though: people are "cocooning" because they're afraid of getting coronavirus. If the government just gives people money through EITC, tax reductions, bailouts, etc., then people will probably just put the money under their mattresses. If the government's goal is to pump up the stock market, they should borrow a ton of money with low-rate 100-year bonds and use it to give everyone a special sort of insurance where if you get coronavirus, then 100% of your medical expenses and lost income related to this (up to a cap) are covered, and you also get some fixed life insurance coverage. (I don't support this, but I think it'd be most effective way to artificially prop up the economy.)
218  Other / Politics & Society / Re: 2020 Democrats on: March 10, 2020, 08:39:42 PM
Given that 2020 is toast, and that I'm rooting for Ivanka 2024...

It'll be interesting to see who the 2024 Republican nominee will be now that Trump has changed the party. Pence literally believes that he has been chosen by God to be president someday, so he'll eventually go for it, though he's a Mitt Romney Republican, not a Trump Republican. It's unclear if he could win the nomination or the general even if he had Trump's endorsement. I would expect Trump to favor endorsing a family member over Pence, if any of them actually want it. The Trump children are more likable than Pence, and could more easily claim to be continuations on Trump's legacy, though with different "flavors": Ivanka would be a more Dem-leaning candidate, Eric Trump and Jared Kushner are more stable, and Trump Jr. is even more extreme. And of course we'll probably have people like Rand Paul and Ted Cruz running again.
219  Economy / Auctions / Advertise on this forum - Round 302 on: March 06, 2020, 01:50:36 PM
The forum sells ad space in the area beneath the first post of every topic page. This income is used primarily to cover hosting costs and to pay moderators for their work (there are many moderators, so each moderator gets only a small amount -- moderators should be seen as volunteers, not employees). Any leftover amount is typically either saved for future expenses or otherwise reinvested into the forum or the ecosystem.

There are 10 total ad slots which are randomly rotated. So one ad slot has a one in ten chance of appearing. Nine of the slots are for sale here. Ads appear only on topic pages with more than one post. Hero/Legendary members, Donators, VIPs, and moderators have the ability to disable ads; these people don't increase the impression stats for your ads.

Design & ad restrictions

Ad text may not contain lies, misrepresentation, or inappropriate language. Ads may not link directly to any NSFW page. No ICOs[1], loggable mixers[2], banks, funds, or anything that a person can be said to "invest" in; I may very rarely make exceptions if you convince me that you are ultra legit, but don't count on it. Ads may be rejected for other reasons, and I may remove ads even after they are accepted.

See the ad design rules for info on designing forum ads.

When advertising a new service, you should always check with me in advance whether your service is OK. I will sometimes accept bids of people who don't do this, but such people are taking the risk of being rejected at the last minute. It's also a good idea for you to have me check your ad's HTML+CSS in advance, especially if this is your first time advertising.

Duration

- Your ads are guaranteed to be up for at least 7 days.
- I usually try to keep ads up for no more than 11 days.
- Sometimes ads might be up for longer, but hopefully no longer than 12 days. Even if past rounds sometimes lasted for long periods of time, you should not rely on this for your ads.

Stats

Exact historical impression counts per slot:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstats

Info about the current ad slots:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adinfo

Auction rules

New members are likely to have their bids rejected unless they PM me first, telling me what they're going to advertise. New members might also be required to pay some amount in advance. Additionally, if you have never purchased forum ad space before, and it is not blatantly obvious what you're going to advertise, say what you're going to advertise in your first bid, or tell me in a PM.

Post your bids in this thread. Prices must be stated in BTC per slot. You must state the maximum number of slots you want. When the auction ends, the highest bidders will have their slots filled until all nine slots are filled.

So if someone bids for 9 slots @ 0.5 BTC and this is the highest bid, then he'll get all 9 slots. If the two highest bids are 9 slots @ 0.4 BTC and 1 slot @ 0.5 BTC, then the first person will get 8 slots and the second person will get 1 slot.

The notation "2 @ 0.5" means 2 slots for 0.5 BTC each. Not 2 slots for 0.5 BTC total.

- When you post a bid, the bids in your previous posts are considered to be automatically canceled. You can put multiple bids in one post, however, like "5 @ 0.1 and 1 @ 0.5".
- All bid prices must be evenly divisible by 0.01.
- The bidding starts at 0.01.
- I will end the auction at an arbitrary time. Unless I say otherwise, I typically try to end auctions within a few days of 10 days from the time of this post, but unexpected circumstances may sometimes force me to end the auction anytime between 4 and 22 days from the start.
- If two people bid at the same price, the person who bid first will have his slots filled first.

If these rules are confusing, look at some of the past forum ad auctions to see how it's done.

I reserve the right to reject bids, even days after the bid is made.

Price flattening

At the end of the auction, after the winning bids are all determined, I will do a "price flattening" operation. This has no effect on which bids actually win. For each bid, in order of lowest to greatest price/slot, I will reduce each bid's price/slot to the highest value which is equal to or only the minimum increment greater than the next-lower bid. This allows you to bid higher prices without worrying so much, but you still mustn't bid more than you're willing to pay. Example:

Code:
This:
Slots  BTC/Slot  Person
    6      0.20       A
    1      0.16       B
    1      0.08       C
    1      0.08       D

Becomes:
Slots  BTC/Slot  Person
    6      0.10       A [step 4: reduced to 0.09+0.01=0.10]
    1      0.09       B [step 3: reduced to 0.08+0.01=0.09]
    1      0.08       C [step 2: same as the next-lowest, unchanged]
    1      0.08       D [step 1: the lowest bid is always unchanged]

Payment, etc.

You must pay for your slots within 24 hours of receiving the payment address. Otherwise your slots may be sold to someone else, and I might even give you a negative trust rating. I will send you the payment information via forum PM from this account ("theymos", user ID 35) after announcing the auction results in this thread. You might receive false payment information from scammers pretending to be me. They might even have somewhat similar usernames. Be careful.

[1]: For the purposes of forum ads, an ICO is any token, altcoin, or other altcoin-like thing which meets any of the following criteria: it is primarily run/backed by a company; it is substantially, fundamentally centralized in either operation or coin distribution; or it is not yet possible for two unprivileged users of the system to send coins directly to each other in a P2P way. The intention here is to allow community efforts to advertise things like Litecoin, but not to allow ICO funding, even when the ICO is disguised in various ways.
[2]: A loggable mixer is a service marketed primarily for improving transaction privacy which accepts full custody of cryptocurrency for a time and has the technical ability to log where the cryptocurrency comes from and goes to (even if they promise not to log).
220  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 301 on: March 06, 2020, 01:47:45 PM
Auction ended, final result:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
1 0.13 BitDouble.io
8 0.12 FortuneJack
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