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201  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: New IRS 'guidance' on: October 10, 2019, 01:39:56 PM
The statement is complete nonsense, clearly written by someone who doesn't understand this stuff whatsoever. It sounds like the IRS asked around the office, "Hey, anyone know what this hardfork/airdrop stuff is?", and one guy said, "Oh yeah, Coinbase gave me an airdrop in my account that one time! Something about a hardfork. Dunno what it was about, but I guess it's income?"

Coin Center says:
because the value of a coin is typically zero at the moment of a hard fork (given there are no markets yet), then the reportable income would be zero
So it seems that the accounting that everyone was already using (ie. when you sell it, it's capital gains with zero basis) holds up even under the nonsense guidance except perhaps when it's an exchange giving you the "airdrop".

If they try to go after someone for this sort of thing, they're going to have a hell of a time pinning down a market value. If you're Mark Zuckerburg and you want to gift all of your Facebook shares to a charity, you don't get to deduct the current market price of FB shares times the number of shares you donated: firstly because if you actually sold those shares, it'd crash the market; and secondly because many of those shares are of an untraded class. In this scenario, Zuckerburg would have to get an appraisal done by a specialist appraiser to estimate the actual cash value of the shares.
202  Other / Meta / Re: Bitcointalk.org collectible coin ideas & vote on: October 08, 2019, 08:04:06 PM
Hopefully, there's something else planned as a little celebration. I might as well lock this thread, unless we can rally together, and make this happen? I'd probably be willing to put some money into this to get this going. Although, it never has the same appeal as an unofficial coin.

It is a really cool idea, but it's just too big of a project for a one-time thing. In many ways it's like setting up a new merchandising business from scratch.

If people want to get this done, I think you should do it by partnering with a business that already has a web storefront, BTC payment, delivery, etc. set up. At the end, once things are ready to ship, I'd be willing to "bless" some particular product as "official", if it's good. And I could also work with them to give out 100 50%-off coupon codes to worthy forum users as well, or something. (Coupon codes would also have privacy benefits, since there'd be no link on either end between forum users and shipping info.)

But I am going to spend zero time on this until/unless it's basically already done, so it'll have to be a community-led effort.
203  Economy / Collectibles / Re: Bitcointalk.org collectible coin? on: October 08, 2019, 06:56:11 PM
I decided that I won't have time to see through the creation of a coin myself. If one or more other people want to create collectibles, I can advertise them into the 10-year-anniversary topic which I will eventually create. And if there's a really good product, I would be willing to partially subsidize the cost of them for the top n forum members, or something in that general vein. But I decided that there'd be far too many things to figure out from scratch with an official forum giveaway (eg. creating the design, getting the coins made, delivering items, safely/privately sharing data with various new service providers, debating exact giveaway conditions, etc.), so if anything is going to be done here, it'll have to be done independently.

Sorry if I got people's hopes up.
204  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 07, 2019, 06:54:24 PM
I hadn't been following this closely for a while, but the class action complaint against Tether/BitFinex makes things look pretty bad for them... How important are they to the current ecosystem at this point? How much has the risk of Finex+USDT going the way of MtGox already been priced in?

The complaint doesn't completely convince me that Finex was printing USDT to manipulate prices, though it's certainly possible. I've been skeptical of USDT's backing for a long time. If they weren't manipulating, then the whole matter looks like the US government stole their money and then turned around and said, "Now you're operating at fractional reserve, so you're fraudulent!"
205  Other / Meta / Re: Bumping changes on some boards on: October 05, 2019, 09:38:41 PM
The other thing that I can't quite get my head around is how the weekly post window works. If I post on the thread every day then according to the formula in the OP:
If you haven't posted in a topic in the last 7 days, posting in it adds 1% of your base bump power to the topic's bump score. Deleted posts count against the 7-day limit, but not the topic's bump score.
it would seem that only the first post will bump it, since every subsequent post that is still in the 36-hour window will have up to 6 previous posts in the 7-day window... so no bump?
My phrasing was inexact: when you post in a thread, the system checks whether you minibumped the thread in the last 7 days. If so, there is no bump effect. If not, you minibump the thread. But separately, at bump score calculation time, minibumps from now-deleted posts are not counted, even though they will continue to count for the 7-day window.



It sounds like people really want a "do not bump" option, so I'll probably end up adding that.
206  Other / Meta / Re: permanently banned on: October 05, 2019, 01:04:04 AM
Unbanned.

I believe TotSamiy is banned on the premise that he is an alt of mdafjal786 (not bubbalex) and both accounts share the exact same facebook account.

mdafjal786 has used this facebook address around and over 15 times (43 total post/newbie account): https://www.facebook.com/mdafjal786
and only once the address TotSamiy uses, which by the way was posted twice prior to mdafjal786's post!

My question is...what is stopping a newbie throwaway account to take your btc or eth or whatever address/social media handle to use it as their own and then get banned? How is that TotSamiy's fault? Are there any other connections between mdafjal786 and TotSamiy?

Good reasoning.


That post is long, but irrelevant to this case since bubbalex is neither banned nor linked to mdafjal786.

Our moderators are highly accurate, so it makes sense to start out biased against appeals. But mistakes happen: ignoring relevant evidence and accepting irrelevant evidence leads to injustice.
207  Other / Meta / Re: DT update log on: October 04, 2019, 08:09:42 PM
This month 111 users were eligible.

Old:
Code:
theymos
HostFat
dooglus
TECSHARE
OgNasty
CanaryInTheMine
malevolent
qwk
Vod
Anduck
mprep
Foxpup
philipma1957
babo
Cyrus
Flying Hellfish
Welsh
ibminer
TMAN
TookDk
Mitchell
Micio
vizique
Ticked
yogg
by rallier
dbshck
TheNewAnon135246
hybridsole
greenplastic
hilariousandco
arulbero
Avirunes
mindrust
buckrogers
Lesbian Cow
redsn0w
willi9974
cryptodevil
suchmoon
JayJuanGee
Rmcdermott927
achow101
teeGUMES
owlcatz
nutildah
dazedfool
sapta
tmfp
BitcoinPenny
yahoo62278
zazarb
LFC_Bitcoin
mhanbostanci
bones261
LoyceV
actmyname
WhiteManWhite
Kalemder
The Pharmacist
LeGaulois
DarkStar_
asu
kzv
TheFuzzStone
Jet Cash
bL4nkcode
Lafu
Gunthar
finaleshot2016
xtraelv
crwth
Ale88
Kryptowerk
bobita
krogothmanhattan
Matthias9515
roycilik
micgoossens
Silent26
Veleor
o_e_l_e_o
chimk
pandukelana2712
coinlocket$
witcher_sense
asche
DdmrDdmr
anonymousminer
Alex_Sr
morvillz7z
fillippone
taikuri13
abhiseshakana
madnessteat
Coolcryptovator
lovesmayfamilis
DireWolfM14
1miau
DIKUL

New:
Code:
theymos
HostFat
gmaxwell
CanaryInTheMine
malevolent
qwk
Vod
mprep
Dabs
Foxpup
philipma1957
babo
Cyrus
Flying Hellfish
monkeynuts
Welsh
ibminer
TMAN
TookDk
Mitchell
vizique
Ticked
by rallier
dbshck
TheNewAnon135246
hybridsole
hilariousandco
arulbero
Avirunes
Lydian
mindrust
buckrogers
Lesbian Cow
redsn0w
willi9974
cryptodevil
suchmoon
Rmcdermott927
achow101
teeGUMES
owlcatz
nutildah
dazedfool
sapta
tmfp
yahoo62278
zazarb
LFC_Bitcoin
ezeminer
MaoChao
LoyceV
actmyname
WhiteManWhite
The Pharmacist
LeGaulois
DarkStar_
asu
kzv
TheFuzzStone
Jet Cash
bL4nkcode
Lafu
polymerbit
Gunthar
finaleshot2016
xtraelv
crwth
Ale88
Kryptowerk
bobita
Vispilio
krogothmanhattan
JollyGood
Goran_
roycilik
micgoossens
bavicrypto
Veleor
theyoungmillionaire
o_e_l_e_o
chimk
iasenko
pandukelana2712
tvplus006
gospodin
coinlocket$
mole0815
witcher_sense
asche
DdmrDdmr
anonymousminer
Alex_Sr
morvillz7z
taikuri13
abhiseshakana
Coolcryptovator
lovesmayfamilis
DireWolfM14
TalkStar
1miau
208  Other / Meta / Re: Project owners now posting in Altcoins Discussion and using bumping service. on: October 03, 2019, 09:20:29 PM
I think the bumping score start to be recorded from the moment the thread is moved to that section. All the previous comments/bumps are ignored.

No, every thread forum-wide has a bump score, with the same mechanism of operation everywhere. Moving doesn't affect it. The only per-section differences are UI-related:
 - "Bump" links are displayed in targeted sections.
 - The default ordering is different in targeted sections.

It's even possible by playing around with URLs to superbump any thread, but since the default ordering doesn't take this into account, it's pointless in non-targeted sections.

When a topic is moved, bump-wise it's as if the topic always existed in the destination section. There's no advantage to bumping in one section and then moving it to another.
209  Other / Meta / Re: How to get all posts through "recent"? on: October 03, 2019, 09:14:05 PM
That page looks different in Firefox and in Chrome, but I can't really figure out what I'm looking at.

It's an XML sitemap file. Search engines use that file to keep up-to-date on forum posts. It's designed for computers to process, not humans; different browsers display it differently.
210  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Twitter Censors @realDonaldTrump Posts on: October 03, 2019, 09:07:45 PM
I don't like or use Twitter, but this isn't a fair criticism against them. If Twitter receives a DMCA takedown, then they have to remove the offending content or else they're sticking their neck out legally. If they say, "this is fair use," then they're liable for copyright infringement if they're wrong. You can't expect a company like Twitter to take risks like that if there's any possibility of them being wrong; nor can you expect them to dedicate resources to having lawyers carefully analyze each case. This is just the natural result of the way the DMCA law works: service providers always take things down after receiving a DMCA takedown unless the takedown is so obviously invalid that any court in the world would immediately throw it out.

Under the DMCA, Trump could in this case theoretically send Twitter a counter-takedown in which he asserts that the DMCA takedown was illegitimate (eg. due to fair use), and then Twitter could restore it without liability. I don't know if Twitter actually has a process for handling counter-takedowns, though. (They should.)

IANAL, but it's not clear to me that it is fair use, mainly since Trump isn't commenting on the work itself (ie. the news piece), but rather the subject of the work. If he was criticizing the handling of the reporting, then that'd more likely be fair use. Probably a lawyer could convincingly argue in court that it isn't copyright infringement (maybe due to the excerpt being insubstantial moreso than fair use), but again, if there's any ambiguity at all, then service providers like Twitter aren't going to stick their necks out.

If people were using a decentralized, uncensorable version of Twitter (which technologically isn't even that difficult), then this wouldn't be an issue...
211  Economy / Auctions / Advertise on this forum - Round 290 on: October 03, 2019, 07:01:39 PM
The forum sells ad space in the area beneath the first post of every topic page. This income is used primarily to cover hosting costs and to pay moderators for their work (there are many moderators, so each moderator gets only a small amount -- moderators should be seen as volunteers, not employees). Any leftover amount is typically either saved for future expenses or otherwise reinvested into the forum or the ecosystem.

Ads are allowed to contain any non-annoying HTML/CSS style. No images, JavaScript, custom fonts, or animation. Ads must appear 3 or fewer lines tall in my browser (Firefox, 900px wide). Ad text may not contain lies, misrepresentation, or inappropriate language. Ads may not link directly to any NSFW page. No ICOs[1], loggable mixers[2], banks, funds, or anything that a person can be said to "invest" in; I may very rarely make exceptions if you convince me that you are ultra legit, but don't count on it. Ads may be rejected for other reasons, and I may remove ads even after they are accepted.

There are 10 total ad slots which are randomly rotated. So one ad slot has a one in ten chance of appearing. Nine of the slots are for sale here. Ads appear only on topic pages with more than one post, and only for people using the default theme.

Duration

- Your ads are guaranteed to be up for at least 7 days.
- I usually try to keep ads up for no more than 8 or 9 days.
- Sometimes ads might be up for longer, but hopefully no longer than 12 days. Even if past rounds sometimes lasted for long periods of time, you should not rely on this for your ads.

Stats

Exact historical impression counts per slot:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstats

Info about the current ad slots:
https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adinfo

Ad blocking

Hero/Legendary members, Donators, VIPs, and moderators have the ability to disable ads. I don't expect many people to use this option. These people don't increase the impression stats for your ads.

I try to bypass Adblock Plus filters as much as possible, though this is not guaranteed. It is difficult or impossible for ABP filters to block the ad space itself without blocking posts. However, filters can match against the URLs in your links, your CSS classes and style attributes, and the HTML structure of your ads.

To prevent matches against URLs: I have some JavaScript which fixes links blocked by ABP. You must tell me if you want this for your ads. When someone with ABP and JavaScript enabled views your ads, your links are changed to a special randomized bitcointalk.org URL which redirects to your site when visited. People without ABP are unaffected, even if they don't have JavaScript enabled. The downsides are:
- ABP users will see the redirection link when they hover over the link, even if they disable ABP for the forum.
- Getting referral stats might become even more difficult.
- Some users might get a warning when redirecting from https to http.

To prevent matching on CSS classes/styles: Don't use inline CSS. I can give your ad a CSS class that is randomized on each pageload, but you must request this.

To prevent matching against your HTML structure: Use only one <a> and no other tags if possible. If your ads get blocked because of matching done on something inside of your ad, you are responsible for noticing this and giving me new ad HTML.

Designing ads

Make sure that your ads look good when you download and edit this test page:
https://bitcointalk.org/ad_test.html
Also read the comments in that file.

Images are not allowed no matter how they are created (CSS, SVG, or data URI). Occasionally I will make an exception for small logos and such, but you must get pre-approval from me first.

The maximum size of any one ad is 51200 bytes.

I will send you more detailed styling rules if you win slots in this auction (or upon request).

Auction rules

You must be at least a Jr Member to bid. If you are not a Jr Member and you really want to bid, you should PM me first. Tell me in the PM what you're going to advertise. You might be required to pay some amount in advance. Everyone else: Please quickly PM newbies who try to bid here to warn them against impersonation scammers.

If you have never purchased forum ad space before, and it is not blatantly obvious what you're going to advertise, say what you're going to advertise in your first bid, or tell me in a PM.

Post your bids in this thread. Prices must be stated in BTC per slot. You must state the maximum number of slots you want. When the auction ends, the highest bidders will have their slots filled until all nine slots are filled.

So if someone bids for 9 slots @ 5 BTC and this is the highest bid, then he'll get all 9 slots. If the two highest bids are 9 slots @ 4 BTC and 1 slot @ 5 BTC, then the first person will get 8 slots and the second person will get 1 slot.

The notation "2 @ 5" means 2 slots for 5 BTC each. Not 2 slots for 5 BTC total.

- When you post a bid, the bids in your previous posts are considered to be automatically canceled. You can put multiple bids in one post, however.
- All bid prices must be evenly divisible by 0.01.
- The bidding starts at 0.01.
- I will end the auction at an arbitrary time. Unless I say otherwise, I typically try to end auctions within a few days of 10 days from the time of this post, but unexpected circumstances may sometimes force me to end the auction anytime between 4 and 22 days from the start. I have a small bias toward ending auctions on Fridays, Sundays, and Mondays.
- If two people bid at the same price, the person who bid first will have his slots filled first.
- Bids are considered invalid and will be ignored if they do not specify both a price and a max quantity, or if they could not possibly win any slots

If these rules are confusing, look at some of the past forum ad auctions to see how it's done.

I reserve the right to reject bids, even days after the bid is made.

Price flattening

At the end of the auction, after the winning bids are all determined, I will do a "price flattening" operation. This has no effect on which bids actually win. For each bid, in order of lowest to greatest price/slot, I will reduce each bid's price/slot to the highest value which is equal to or only the minimum increment greater than the next-lower bid. This allows you to bid higher prices without worrying so much, but you still mustn't bid more than you're willing to pay. Example:

Code:
This:
Slots  BTC/Slot  Person
    6      0.20       A
    1      0.16       B
    1      0.08       C
    1      0.08       D

Becomes:
Slots  BTC/Slot  Person
    6      0.10       A [step 4: reduced to 0.09+0.01=0.10]
    1      0.09       B [step 3: reduced to 0.08+0.01=0.09]
    1      0.08       C [step 2: same as the next-lowest, unchanged]
    1      0.08       D [step 1: the lowest bid is always unchanged]

Payment, etc.

You must pay for your slots within 24 hours of receiving the payment address. Otherwise your slots may be sold to someone else, and I might even give you a negative trust rating. I will send you the payment information via forum PM from this account ("theymos", user ID 35) after announcing the auction results in this thread. You might receive false payment information from scammers pretending to be me. They might even have somewhat similar usernames. Be careful.

[1]: For the purposes of forum ads, an ICO is any token, altcoin, or other altcoin-like thing which meets any of the following criteria: it is primarily run/backed by a company; it is substantially, fundamentally centralized in either operation or coin distribution; or it is not yet possible for two unprivileged users of the system to send coins directly to each other in a P2P way. The intention here is to allow community efforts to advertise things like Litecoin, but not to allow ICO funding, even when the ICO is disguised in various ways.
[2]: A loggable mixer is a service marketed primarily for improving transaction privacy which accepts full custody of cryptocurrency for a time and has the technical ability to log where the cryptocurrency comes from and goes to (even if they promise not to log).
212  Economy / Auctions / Re: Advertise on this forum - Round 289 on: October 03, 2019, 06:58:23 PM
Auction ended, final result:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
7 0.10 sportsbet.io
1 0.10 HatuSS
1 0.09 FortuneJack
213  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Bernie Sanders has surgery to insert stents, cancels events until further notice on: October 02, 2019, 08:51:53 PM
Some other candidates would be able to continue after this, but since the media hates Sanders, they'll constantly portray him as near death. Probably it will hurt his support enough to kill his inertia and force him to drop out after he performs poorly in the first few states.

According to the latest Morning Consult polling, Sanders supporters say that their second choice is:
 - 30% Biden
 - 28% Warren
 - 6% Harris

If you assume that Sanders drops out now, go based on the above numbers along with the current RCP average, and give one-tenth of Sanders' remaining support to candidates not listed in the Morning Consult poll, you get adjusted numbers of:
 - Biden 26.1 -> 31.1
 - Warren 24.4 -> 29.1
 - Buttigieg 5.6 -> 6.2
 - Harris 4.7 -> 5.7
 - Yang 3.3 -> 3.9

This (incredibly rough/unscientific analysis) makes it look good for Biden and to a slightly lesser extent Warren, but it really solidifies it into a 2-person race.

I would've really liked Sanders vs Trump because it's win-win in some ways: compared to previous presidents Trump is above average in most areas, while Sanders is excellent on foreign policy and civil liberties and terrible on policies that a president is more limited in affecting. Now I probably have to hope for Trump beating Biden or Warren.

In Trump vs Biden, I think Trump would probably win, but it wouldn't be a sure thing. President Biden would be like a mix between Obama and Bush. Biden himself is very authoritarian and pro-intervention, but he would probably appoint some Obama people to his administration, which might improve things somewhat on average. On the plus side, he is definitely not anti-capitalist.

In Trump vs Warren, Warren would have a very low chance of winning, but it'd be high stakes because Warren is really terrible. Warren is a horrible fusion of authoritarianism, interventionism, anti-capitalism, and corporatism, and her victory would embolden progressives while also giving them an opportunity to say, "Warren is destroying the country only because she's not progressive enough: she's no Bernie!". On the plus side, if she loses (which is the most likely outcome), it might diminish AOC-type progressivism in the Democratic party for a while.
214  Other / Meta / Re: How to get all posts through "recent"? on: October 01, 2019, 10:47:49 PM
All posts you can see should be listed there, though due to database concurrency limitations, ones made in the last few seconds might not show up, even if others before/after them do.

Note that if you don't need to get posts ASAP, it may be more easy and efficient for you to use https://bitcointalk.org/sitemap.php. All of the last-modification times are accurate to within a couple of hours.
215  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Journey to the Mars,Elon Musk vision! on: September 27, 2019, 01:40:26 PM
I love the idea of space travel/colonization, but I'm skeptical about the economics of it currently.

Imagine it's the 17th century and Europeans learned of America, but America was a completely barren landmass with no plants or animals, just a ton of untouched minerals in the rocks. Maybe they could've imported some soil and plants in order to try living there, but there's no way that anyone would've taken the long and dangerous journey and invested so much in order to live on a barren rock. I'm not so sure that it'd even now have much population: consider that there's still low population density in difficult regions like Antarctica, northern Canada, and mid-ocean.

Space is that rich-but-barren separate content in the 17th century, but hundreds of times worse. Sure, we could move all kinds of stuff over there to make it theoretically livable, but it's not economically worthwhile, and the colonists are basically marooning themselves on a desert island.

Rather than trying to get people there ASAP, it'd be better to focus on technology which would boost the economic practicality of it, like:
 - AI & robotics which can independently do everything on Mars that a human might want to do, especially mining and construction.
 - Technology for passively & efficiently turning CO2 + energy + water + trace elements into food.
 - A space elevator, mass driver, or incredibly cheap & safe rocketry systems. (But the above things are also useful on Earth, so I'd do those first.)
 
By the time a human arrives for colonization, you want to make it so that they don't have to do any work at all or rely on any imports in order to stay alive. Then they can focus on fulfilling & possibly-economically-useful activities like research, instead of on scraping out a meager existence on a barren rock with no real hope of ever being able to live comfortably.
216  Other / Politics & Society / Re: REEE: [US Only] Impeachment Vote on: September 25, 2019, 11:53:02 PM
They had a real chance to do this, and support from their causus on the fact that Donald Trump has obstructed justice.

They could impeach him over real things, like:
 - Waging wars without a declaration from congress.
 - Supporting the Saudi genocide in Yemen.
 - Emoluments issues with Trump's hotels, etc.
 - Wiretapping and other executive overreach.

But they don't want to impeach him for this sort of stuff because Democratic presidents have done the same things (even emoluments), and furthermore they like having an all-powerful presidency which they can exploit when they get into power and use as a scapegoat when they're out of power. So instead of pushing a powerful impeachment case which the public could actually get behind like, "bombs made in the US are as we speak being used to blow up children, at Trump's order and without congressional approval," the Dems instead search for these little "gotcha!" things which are totally Trump-specific and meaningless in any wider context, and which nobody actually cares about.

One of the most harmful trends has been the centralization of power into the presidency. Donald Trump is the ultimate head of an organization with ~4 million employees, and congress has in the past and present basically given him free reign to do whatever he wants with this insane amount of power. I'd love it if outrage over Trump leads to removal of executive powers and more skepticism of the status quo, but so far I'm not seeing any effective move in this direction.

IMO there's some chance (not a high chance, but some) that the loser of the next election will attack the legitimacy of the election, which will result in some serious chaos not seen in our lifetimes. And this will just be ridiculous bickering over who the next emperor will be, rather than actually trying to fix the problem at its source by making the presidency less powerful or otherwise fixing things fundamentally.
217  Other / Meta / Re: Pilipinas Board Total Topics and Posts Errors on: September 25, 2019, 10:21:41 PM
Those stats are supposed to count the section itself and all subsections, but it's a cached value which drifts from the true value over time. It gets corrected in the recounts which I do periodically (several times per year).

As of this second, the true per-board stats are:
Code:
Main
posts: 193201
topics: 4213

Altcoins
posts: 11213
topics: 695

Altcoin Announcements
posts: 25856
topics: 2572

So since the displayed stats count subsections, the top-level message count should be 230270, but it's about 20k off due to drift, and this will get worse over time until I do a recount.
218  Other / Meta / Re: Bitcointalk.org would like to use your current location on: September 25, 2019, 09:28:15 PM
I've never heard of that before. I can see in the access logs that you were talking to bitcointalk.org, though.

My first thought is some sort of browser glitch or extension.

My second thought is that it's Cloudflare. Normally Cloudflare doesn't do anything like that, but it reminds me of a case several months ago where they introduced some new feature which worked by injected Javascript into the page for mobile users only, and I had to go turn that off once I learned of it. (I forget exactly what the feature did.) At a guess, maybe they added this as a way to improve the accuracy of their IPCountry header: since bitcointalk.org doesn't use that, I just now turned that off.

If you visit the same page in a private tab, does it request your location still? (This isn't a sure-fire way to test it, but if it's a problem on my end which I didn't fix, this might trigger it.) Does anyone else see it?

If it's some change in Cloudflare, you'd see it on a lot of sites, since CF is very widely used.
219  Other / Politics & Society / Re: REEE: [US Only] Impeachment Vote on: September 25, 2019, 07:51:48 PM
I dunno. Sounds pretty bad. Sounds like Trump is using his position of the presidency to ask another president to investigate his political rival. I'm not the only one who thinks this.
...
But as we all know, even when Trump loses, he wins. I don't think its enough to proceed with the impeachment, or if they do, he will probably be acquitted.

It'll be another thing like the Mueller report: Democrats will claim that it proves that Trump is basically a dictator, while Republicans will say that Trump was only doing his job in pushing for the investigation of a credible case of corruption. (IMO the truth is somewhere in the middle here, but the truth doesn't matter in politics.) If no other facts appear making this a bigger deal, then I think that Trump will come out even cleaner from this than he did from the Mueller report, while Biden will be substantially hurt.

Trump would have to literally strangle a baby on live TV in order for him to be convicted of anything in the Senate. Even if he'd said in the transcript, "Biden is a political threat to me. If and only if you fabricate & publish official Ukrainian reports making him look bad, I promise to use my authority as president to give you military aid and provide other favors," he'd still probably be acquitted. (Though in that case it might end up being a political win for the Democrats.)
220  Other / Politics & Society / Re: REEE: [US Only] Impeachment Vote on: September 25, 2019, 12:22:19 AM
Super interesting events...

When I first saw the headline about initiating an impeachment inquiry, I thought that it was just something Pelosi did to appease the more extreme Dems and get a few positive headlines, but it'd go nowhere. "Impeachment inquiry" sounds like a vague non-thing. But when I watched her speech, I got the sense that she's actually serious about this. Taken on its own, Pelosi's speech was very good. It projected a message of, "we all need to come together to take care of this one bad apple president," which is what you need if you want the impeachment process to be positive for the Democrats. But this is only going to work if they're actually able to put enough of a smoking gun forward to get substantial cross-party support, and I certainly haven't seen enough to satisfy that requirement.

Pelosi is a smooth political operator, she has more deep state connections than just about anyone, and the whisleblower report came from "the intelligence community" (~= the deep state). Maybe she has more dirt on Trump than we know? It'd have to be far beyond what's already known in the Ukraine hubub, but I wouldn't put it past her.

Due to living in a bubble, maybe they actually think that this Ukraine thing is a big deal? A huge strategic error in that case, then. Everything I've seen makes me think that this is even less big than all of the Mueller stuff. The investigation will drag Biden through the mud while Teflon Don gets away mostly unscathed, and by Nov 2020 it'll just be another example of the "Democratic witch hunt which prevents anything from getting done".

Usually I think that this is not an accurate way of looking at things, but maybe this was actually 4D chess by Trump? Maybe he set up the Dems to freak out about this, and now he's slowly, painfully going to release info proving his innocence and making the Dems look like fools and Biden look like a crook. If he thinks that Biden's defeat = a Warren victory in the primary, then it may make electoral sense, even, since Warren will be the easiest person for Trump to defeat.
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