The forum sells ad space in the area beneath the first post of every topic page. This income is used primarily to cover hosting costs and to pay moderators for their work (there are many moderators, so each moderator gets only a small amount -- moderators should be seen as volunteers, not employees). Any leftover amount is typically either saved for future expenses or otherwise reinvested into the forum or the ecosystem. There are 10 total ad slots which are randomly rotated. So one ad slot has a one in ten chance of appearing. Nine of the slots are for sale here. Ads appear only on topic pages with more than one post. Hero/Legendary members, Donators, VIPs, and moderators have the ability to disable ads; these people don't increase the impression stats for your ads. Design & ad restrictionsAd text may not contain lies, misrepresentation, or inappropriate language. Ads may not link directly to any NSFW page. No ICOs [1], loggable mixers [2], banks, funds, or anything that a person can be said to "invest" in; I may very rarely make exceptions if you convince me that you are ultra legit, but don't count on it. Ads may be rejected for other reasons, and I may remove ads even after they are accepted. See the ad design rules for info on designing forum ads. When advertising a new service, you should always check with me in advance whether your service is OK. I will sometimes accept bids of people who don't do this, but such people are taking the risk of being rejected at the last minute. It's also a good idea for you to have me check your ad's HTML+CSS in advance, especially if this is your first time advertising. Duration- Your ads are guaranteed to be up for at least 7 days. - I usually try to keep ads up for no more than 11 days. - Sometimes ads might be up for longer, but hopefully no longer than 12 days. Even if past rounds sometimes lasted for long periods of time, you should not rely on this for your ads. StatsExact historical impression counts per slot: https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstatsInfo about the current ad slots: https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adinfoAuction rulesNew members are likely to have their bids rejected unless they PM me first, telling me what they're going to advertise. New members might also be required to pay some amount in advance. Additionally, if you have never purchased forum ad space before, and it is not blatantly obvious what you're going to advertise, say what you're going to advertise in your first bid, or tell me in a PM. Post your bids in this thread. Prices must be stated in BTC per slot. You must state the maximum number of slots you want. When the auction ends, the highest bidders will have their slots filled until all nine slots are filled. So if someone bids for 9 slots @ 0.5 BTC and this is the highest bid, then he'll get all 9 slots. If the two highest bids are 9 slots @ 0.4 BTC and 1 slot @ 0.5 BTC, then the first person will get 8 slots and the second person will get 1 slot. The notation "2 @ 0.5" means 2 slots for 0.5 BTC each. Not 2 slots for 0.5 BTC total.- When you post a bid, the bids in your previous posts are considered to be automatically canceled. You can put multiple bids in one post, however, like "5 @ 0.1 and 1 @ 0.5". - All bid prices must be evenly divisible by 0.01. - The bidding starts at 0.01. - I will end the auction at an arbitrary time. Unless I say otherwise, I typically try to end auctions within a few days of 10 days from the time of this post, but unexpected circumstances may sometimes force me to end the auction anytime between 4 and 22 days from the start. - If two people bid at the same price, the person who bid first will have his slots filled first. If these rules are confusing, look at some of the past forum ad auctions to see how it's done. I reserve the right to reject bids, even days after the bid is made. Price flatteningAt the end of the auction, after the winning bids are all determined, I will do a "price flattening" operation. This has no effect on which bids actually win. For each bid, in order of lowest to greatest price/slot, I will reduce each bid's price/slot to the highest value which is equal to or only the minimum increment greater than the next-lower bid. This allows you to bid higher prices without worrying so much, but you still mustn't bid more than you're willing to pay. Example: This:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
6 0.20 A
1 0.16 B
1 0.08 C
1 0.08 D
Becomes:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
6 0.10 A [step 4: reduced to 0.09+0.01=0.10]
1 0.09 B [step 3: reduced to 0.08+0.01=0.09]
1 0.08 C [step 2: same as the next-lowest, unchanged]
1 0.08 D [step 1: the lowest bid is always unchanged] You must pay for your slots within 24 hours of receiving the payment address. Otherwise your slots may be sold to someone else, and I might even give you a negative trust rating. I will send you the payment information via forum PM from this account ("theymos", user ID 35) after announcing the auction results in this thread. You might receive false payment information from scammers pretending to be me. They might even have somewhat similar usernames. Be careful.
[1]: For the purposes of forum ads, an ICO is any token, altcoin, or other altcoin-like thing which meets any of the following criteria: it is primarily run/backed by a company; it is substantially, fundamentally centralized in either operation or coin distribution; or it is not yet possible for two unprivileged users of the system to send coins directly to each other in a P2P way. The intention here is to allow community efforts to advertise things like Litecoin, but not to allow ICO funding, even when the ICO is disguised in various ways.[2]: A loggable mixer is a service marketed primarily for improving transaction privacy which accepts full custody of cryptocurrency for a time and has the technical ability to log where the cryptocurrency comes from and goes to (even if they promise not to log). |
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Auction ended, final result:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
3 0.08 lightlord
1 0.07 yahoo62278
1 0.07 Murat
4 0.07 Stunna
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The whole Republican strategy seems broken to me. They're talking about all the wrong things. At this point, I'm thinking that Biden is going to win by a landslide. He's currently ahead in Florida and Arizona, which Trump needs to win. The polls may still tighten, but I suspect that pollsters are more likely to have overcorrected than undercorrected after 2016; in other words, I expect polling error to go in the opposite direction to 2016.
On election night, we should watch Florida and Arizona, since they're apparently going to have some solid results early. If Biden wins either, then it's over. If Trump wins both, then it'll go into a big mess of delays and litigation in the other swing states. If Trump wins FL&AZ, then it also implies a fairly tight election, which gives Trump the opportunity to try for various tricks such as trying to have mail-in ballots thrown out in the remaining states. But I think Biden wins Florida and Arizona, which will be a bit of an anticlimactic end to the whole thing.
Ticket-splitting has become rare, so Trump's disaster of a campaign is likely to lead to the Democrats taking the Senate as well. It's always bad when either party has full control, since then the government can actually do stuff, and everything the government does is harmful. Disappointing.
Biden represents a return to the neoliberal status quo, which I would not have expected. The neoliberal ideology and post-WWII world order has been falling apart worldwide, and we seemed (still seem?) headed inexorably toward something else. The protracted and disastrous wars in the middle east were major blows to the political strength of the US and neoliberalism's strength in domestic politics, as was the 2008 financial crisis. Trump's open and loud rejection of neoliberalism seemed like the final nail in the coffin. But now Biden will attempt to "go backward". People voting for Biden want and expect a return to something "ordinary", but I think it'll be moreso Biden fighting to recreate something that can no longer exist in this world.
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Especially after watching both conventions, I really got the sense that both parties are at their core fascist parties, with only relatively minor differences between them. For both of them, their central tenants are nationalism, collectivism, authoritarianism, and maintaining the American empire. In the Democratic convention, "UNITY!!!" was the resounding message, while in the Republican convention, "LAW & ORDER!!!" was what they chose to most focus on.
After the election, there will probably be quite a bit of violence, which is really sad and pathetic. For almost everyone, 99.9% of life will be the same under Trump or Biden, but yet probably at least a quarter of Americans are going to feel a certain sense of hopelessness and/or fear after their candidate loses the election. According to an August Pew poll, only 16% of voters say that "things will be pretty much the same regardless of who is elected," even though this is in fact the reality. I feel bad for all of the people who have tied themselves up personally with this election, as if Trump or Biden actually cared about them, or as if their election will actually matter much to the voters personally.
That said, the election result won't be unimportant. The executive branch has been ceded more and more power by Congress over the decades, so a president can do quite a bit. A president could for example wield the administrative state in such a way as to make it very difficult to use Bitcoin without existing in the shadows, and a Biden administration is probably more likely to move in this direction than a Trump administration. I'd also prefer to see a Trump win because it's likely to lead the coastal states to think much more seriously about secession, which would be one path toward ending the Federal Reserve as we know it. (I think that political action of any sort almost never has positive expected value, though, including in this election.)
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A narcissist who's largely living in fantasy-land vs a senile old politician... And they both ended up visibly winded by the end.
The whole "trojan horse for socialism" argument is just stupid; people who aren't already voting for Trump simply find it unbelievable. "You're running against Joe Biden!" And Trump brings up the stock market... You're not speaking to avid Fox News watchers, Don.
Trump should've pointed out that at least according to FBI director Ratcliffe, Russia and Iran are trying to make Trump lose. (This is just spin from Ratcliffe, but it would've been effective for Trump to repeat.)
Framing the question of structural racism in terms of "the talk" was smart by the moderator, connecting something abstract to something that most people can find believable and many will relate to personally. Biden's response to the question was effective, though when you dig deeper, the Democratic ideology toward structural racism is basically that racism is original sin: everyone/everything has it, it can't be removed, and all you can do is constantly but futilely try to atone for it through various forms of self-flagellation. IMO this is both wrongheaded and ultimately an unpopular message, but yet the Republicans always seem to want to ignore the issue entirely rather than actually making an ideological argument. Trump's response in this case was to basically dodge the question and point to several ways in which he's helped minority communities, which was an effective response, but like most Republicans, he avoids presenting an actual ideology here. Republicans should say something like, "A great many people, especially minority communities, feel oppressed by the system, often with good reason. We should try to fix this. However, the end goal is colorblindness: to put racial divisions behind us. You don't do that through stuff like affirmative action or critical race theory, which only solidify racial divisions."
It's pathetic that Trump wasn't more effective at attacking someone who is both in terms of style and record as weak as Biden. Both sides made several effective arguments, though Biden was weaker on style, so I'd say that Trump "won", though this'll have nearly zero impact: even less than the previous debates.
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It's sad to see you go. Although there were various small bits of drama and conflict, you've been one of the most active and dedicated members of the community over the course of several years. (And if there's no conflict, then probably nothing is actually being accomplished.) I hope that you're not in any actual danger, and I hope that you will be successful in whatever you choose for your future. I will request that theymos ban the "Lauda" account (u=101872)
Done. Lauda is banned in the same way as satoshi, such that it isn't possible to even log into the account anymore. |
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The forum sells ad space in the area beneath the first post of every topic page. This income is used primarily to cover hosting costs and to pay moderators for their work (there are many moderators, so each moderator gets only a small amount -- moderators should be seen as volunteers, not employees). Any leftover amount is typically either saved for future expenses or otherwise reinvested into the forum or the ecosystem. There are 10 total ad slots which are randomly rotated. So one ad slot has a one in ten chance of appearing. Nine of the slots are for sale here. Ads appear only on topic pages with more than one post. Hero/Legendary members, Donators, VIPs, and moderators have the ability to disable ads; these people don't increase the impression stats for your ads. Design & ad restrictionsAd text may not contain lies, misrepresentation, or inappropriate language. Ads may not link directly to any NSFW page. No ICOs [1], loggable mixers [2], banks, funds, or anything that a person can be said to "invest" in; I may very rarely make exceptions if you convince me that you are ultra legit, but don't count on it. Ads may be rejected for other reasons, and I may remove ads even after they are accepted. See the ad design rules for info on designing forum ads. When advertising a new service, you should always check with me in advance whether your service is OK. I will sometimes accept bids of people who don't do this, but such people are taking the risk of being rejected at the last minute. It's also a good idea for you to have me check your ad's HTML+CSS in advance, especially if this is your first time advertising. Duration- Your ads are guaranteed to be up for at least 7 days. - I usually try to keep ads up for no more than 11 days. - Sometimes ads might be up for longer, but hopefully no longer than 12 days. Even if past rounds sometimes lasted for long periods of time, you should not rely on this for your ads. StatsExact historical impression counts per slot: https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstatsInfo about the current ad slots: https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adinfoAuction rulesNew members are likely to have their bids rejected unless they PM me first, telling me what they're going to advertise. New members might also be required to pay some amount in advance. Additionally, if you have never purchased forum ad space before, and it is not blatantly obvious what you're going to advertise, say what you're going to advertise in your first bid, or tell me in a PM. Post your bids in this thread. Prices must be stated in BTC per slot. You must state the maximum number of slots you want. When the auction ends, the highest bidders will have their slots filled until all nine slots are filled. So if someone bids for 9 slots @ 0.5 BTC and this is the highest bid, then he'll get all 9 slots. If the two highest bids are 9 slots @ 0.4 BTC and 1 slot @ 0.5 BTC, then the first person will get 8 slots and the second person will get 1 slot. The notation "2 @ 0.5" means 2 slots for 0.5 BTC each. Not 2 slots for 0.5 BTC total.- When you post a bid, the bids in your previous posts are considered to be automatically canceled. You can put multiple bids in one post, however, like "5 @ 0.1 and 1 @ 0.5". - All bid prices must be evenly divisible by 0.01. - The bidding starts at 0.01. - I will end the auction at an arbitrary time. Unless I say otherwise, I typically try to end auctions within a few days of 10 days from the time of this post, but unexpected circumstances may sometimes force me to end the auction anytime between 4 and 22 days from the start. - If two people bid at the same price, the person who bid first will have his slots filled first. If these rules are confusing, look at some of the past forum ad auctions to see how it's done. I reserve the right to reject bids, even days after the bid is made. Price flatteningAt the end of the auction, after the winning bids are all determined, I will do a "price flattening" operation. This has no effect on which bids actually win. For each bid, in order of lowest to greatest price/slot, I will reduce each bid's price/slot to the highest value which is equal to or only the minimum increment greater than the next-lower bid. This allows you to bid higher prices without worrying so much, but you still mustn't bid more than you're willing to pay. Example: This:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
6 0.20 A
1 0.16 B
1 0.08 C
1 0.08 D
Becomes:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
6 0.10 A [step 4: reduced to 0.09+0.01=0.10]
1 0.09 B [step 3: reduced to 0.08+0.01=0.09]
1 0.08 C [step 2: same as the next-lowest, unchanged]
1 0.08 D [step 1: the lowest bid is always unchanged] You must pay for your slots within 24 hours of receiving the payment address. Otherwise your slots may be sold to someone else, and I might even give you a negative trust rating. I will send you the payment information via forum PM from this account ("theymos", user ID 35) after announcing the auction results in this thread. You might receive false payment information from scammers pretending to be me. They might even have somewhat similar usernames. Be careful.
[1]: For the purposes of forum ads, an ICO is any token, altcoin, or other altcoin-like thing which meets any of the following criteria: it is primarily run/backed by a company; it is substantially, fundamentally centralized in either operation or coin distribution; or it is not yet possible for two unprivileged users of the system to send coins directly to each other in a P2P way. The intention here is to allow community efforts to advertise things like Litecoin, but not to allow ICO funding, even when the ICO is disguised in various ways.[2]: A loggable mixer is a service marketed primarily for improving transaction privacy which accepts full custody of cryptocurrency for a time and has the technical ability to log where the cryptocurrency comes from and goes to (even if they promise not to log). |
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Auction ended, final result:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
9 0.10 SlavaVendo
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9 @ 0.07
8 @ 0.08
I'm informed that Playerspin and SlavaVendo are the same person, so I will ignore Playerspin's earlier bid here. Current auction status: Slots BTC/Slot Person
1 0.08 oncebitten3
8 0.08 SlavaVendoThe auction continues. |
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As everyone expected, it was a boring and near-meaningless debate between Politician Man and Politician Woman. Each side will view their candidate as winning, and will be slightly enthused if they watched the debate. Undecideds who lean toward Republican ideology will be pushed a bit in that direction, while undecideds who lean toward Democratic ideology will be pushed a bit in that direction. The next big headline will completely wipe out any real effects, probably within days. Everyone was so shell-shocked from last week that any interruptions or time extensions are liable to be viewed as horrific, though what went on here was totally in-line with what would normally be considered a civil debate. Some interruptions are normal in a debate. Because people would obviously be especially sensitive this time, though, I'm surprised that Pence was as aggressive on bending the rules as he was, and some people will judge him harshly for it. Both candidates did clearly hobble themselves by being more strict about following the rules than is normal or comfortable. Since the whole thing is electorally meaningless, it's a bit pointless to declare a winner, but I'll do so anyway. Kamala did OK, and I think that her points were on the whole slightly more appealing to average viewers, but Pence had much better delivery and ability to adapt/rebut. I think that if you took an undecided person, had them watch the whole debate, and then polled them before they watched any other news coverage, Pence would win by a comfortable margin. Random notes based on my notes while watching: - Kamala's delivery is overall not terrible. She sounds like she knows what she's talking about. She looks less calm than Pence, though, with some stilted delivery of rehearsed lines and a poor ability to adapt. - Plenty of spin and dodging from Pence, but I see less obvious lying than Kamala - Pence runs too long too often - Kamala's virus points are probably more convincing to the average person - Effective point from Pence on Biden's handling of swine flu - Both dodged on questions of presidential succession. Pence's use of the "free time" seemed more effective. - Kamala got a lot of mileage out of Woodward's stuff, and it all comes across pretty effectively - Kamala makes several economic points that will be attractive to people (creating jobs, taxing the wealthy, protecting healthcare, infrastructure, etc.), though Pence's rebuttal was pretty effective - Pence was pretty successful at treating Kamala with kid gloves, to the point where she comes off as rude/aggressive in several exchanges. - Kamala's reference to a Pew poll showing that other countries trust Xi more than Trump is a novel and effective argument. - Kamala's arguments around Trump's interactions with Russia & Iran are too esoteric to be effective. - It's a good line of attack for Biden/Harris to connect the supreme court to the ACA, and Kamala made this argument effectively. Pence should've used his time to somehow rebut this strong argument, but instead he wasted his breath on the esoteric court packing point. He was successful in pressuring Biden/Harris further on court packing, but most people don't understand or care about this. - Pence ideologically has to defer to the grand jury in the Breonna Taylor case, but it looks really bad because it's such an esoteric argument. It's like defending O.J. Simpson: people "know" that Breonna Taylor was not treated fairly, and no amount of legal mumbo-jumbo is going to change their minds. He should've avoided mentioning her particular case at all. (BTW, pretty rich for "Copmala" to complain about grand juries.) - Good points from Pence on Kamala's terrible DA record. Trump/Pence should talk more about this. - He couldn't do the argument justice in 5 seconds, but it's good for Pence to dismiss Bush's cabinet members the "establishment". Trump/Pence should talk more about this, and openly recognize that the Democratic party wants to bring together the bipartisan group who are responsible for 30+ years of failure and put them back in power. FlyGate: Mike Pence seemingly had a fly land on him, perhaps a fruit fly bred by Hillary Clinton and released by one of her staffers.
The fly was sent by the deep state to infect Pence with coronavirus and put Nacy Pelosi in charge! Kamala Harris had a valid point on Russian bounties though.
There's apparently disagreement within the government on whether those bounties actually existed. (And random leaks from "the intelligence community" aren't trustworthy anyway...) |
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Sorry to disappoint.
Damn it... That isn't even good politics by any stretch of the imagination. It maybe appeals to some of his base, but it turns off a lot of people. I agree that people shouldn't "live in fear"; a lot of the lockdown actions have gone way too far. But it's like driving (which is also quite dangerous!): you shouldn't live in fear or let the risk control your life, but you should also wear a seatbelt and drive carefully. It's looking like Trump is going to get destroyed in this election, in large part because he just can't get beyond his own irrationality, narcissism, and tribalism. It's frustrating to watch, since Biden is a terrible candidate who represents an awful ideology. I think we're all kind of expecting due to 2016 that things will at least shift somewhat in Trump's favor, but with current polling Biden is on track to win in a historic landslide. And it's even possible that polls will be wrong in Biden's favor this time around, especially since pollsters might well have over-compensated after 2016: margins of error go both ways. |
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I HEARD four Republicans say Trump is getting well and wants to show you can push through the illness.
If he personally tries to risk his life on this, then I respect his determination, but I hope that he doesn't try to send a general message of "coronavirus is harmless, look at me!". I hate that he's allowed "not wearing a mask" to become some sort of political statement. I'm opposed to mandatory closures and mask mandates, but not wearing a mask just for the sake of tribalism is completely braindead, and a leader encouraging this is just hurting his own faction. It's like Trump mailing all registered Republicans coupons for sky diving, hard liquor, and cigarettes, and telling them that real patriots aren't pussies. |
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The forum sells ad space in the area beneath the first post of every topic page. This income is used primarily to cover hosting costs and to pay moderators for their work (there are many moderators, so each moderator gets only a small amount -- moderators should be seen as volunteers, not employees). Any leftover amount is typically either saved for future expenses or otherwise reinvested into the forum or the ecosystem. There are 10 total ad slots which are randomly rotated. So one ad slot has a one in ten chance of appearing. Nine of the slots are for sale here. Ads appear only on topic pages with more than one post. Hero/Legendary members, Donators, VIPs, and moderators have the ability to disable ads; these people don't increase the impression stats for your ads. Design & ad restrictionsAd text may not contain lies, misrepresentation, or inappropriate language. Ads may not link directly to any NSFW page. No ICOs [1], loggable mixers [2], banks, funds, or anything that a person can be said to "invest" in; I may very rarely make exceptions if you convince me that you are ultra legit, but don't count on it. Ads may be rejected for other reasons, and I may remove ads even after they are accepted. See the ad design rules for info on designing forum ads. When advertising a new service, you should always check with me in advance whether your service is OK. I will sometimes accept bids of people who don't do this, but such people are taking the risk of being rejected at the last minute. It's also a good idea for you to have me check your ad's HTML+CSS in advance, especially if this is your first time advertising. Duration- Your ads are guaranteed to be up for at least 7 days. - I usually try to keep ads up for no more than 11 days. - Sometimes ads might be up for longer, but hopefully no longer than 12 days. Even if past rounds sometimes lasted for long periods of time, you should not rely on this for your ads. StatsExact historical impression counts per slot: https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstatsInfo about the current ad slots: https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adinfoAuction rulesNew members are likely to have their bids rejected unless they PM me first, telling me what they're going to advertise. New members might also be required to pay some amount in advance. Additionally, if you have never purchased forum ad space before, and it is not blatantly obvious what you're going to advertise, say what you're going to advertise in your first bid, or tell me in a PM. Post your bids in this thread. Prices must be stated in BTC per slot. You must state the maximum number of slots you want. When the auction ends, the highest bidders will have their slots filled until all nine slots are filled. So if someone bids for 9 slots @ 0.5 BTC and this is the highest bid, then he'll get all 9 slots. If the two highest bids are 9 slots @ 0.4 BTC and 1 slot @ 0.5 BTC, then the first person will get 8 slots and the second person will get 1 slot. The notation "2 @ 0.5" means 2 slots for 0.5 BTC each. Not 2 slots for 0.5 BTC total.- When you post a bid, the bids in your previous posts are considered to be automatically canceled. You can put multiple bids in one post, however, like "5 @ 0.1 and 1 @ 0.5". - All bid prices must be evenly divisible by 0.01. - The bidding starts at 0.01. - I will end the auction at an arbitrary time. Unless I say otherwise, I typically try to end auctions within a few days of 10 days from the time of this post, but unexpected circumstances may sometimes force me to end the auction anytime between 4 and 22 days from the start. - If two people bid at the same price, the person who bid first will have his slots filled first. If these rules are confusing, look at some of the past forum ad auctions to see how it's done. I reserve the right to reject bids, even days after the bid is made. Price flatteningAt the end of the auction, after the winning bids are all determined, I will do a "price flattening" operation. This has no effect on which bids actually win. For each bid, in order of lowest to greatest price/slot, I will reduce each bid's price/slot to the highest value which is equal to or only the minimum increment greater than the next-lower bid. This allows you to bid higher prices without worrying so much, but you still mustn't bid more than you're willing to pay. Example: This:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
6 0.20 A
1 0.16 B
1 0.08 C
1 0.08 D
Becomes:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
6 0.10 A [step 4: reduced to 0.09+0.01=0.10]
1 0.09 B [step 3: reduced to 0.08+0.01=0.09]
1 0.08 C [step 2: same as the next-lowest, unchanged]
1 0.08 D [step 1: the lowest bid is always unchanged] You must pay for your slots within 24 hours of receiving the payment address. Otherwise your slots may be sold to someone else, and I might even give you a negative trust rating. I will send you the payment information via forum PM from this account ("theymos", user ID 35) after announcing the auction results in this thread. You might receive false payment information from scammers pretending to be me. They might even have somewhat similar usernames. Be careful.
[1]: For the purposes of forum ads, an ICO is any token, altcoin, or other altcoin-like thing which meets any of the following criteria: it is primarily run/backed by a company; it is substantially, fundamentally centralized in either operation or coin distribution; or it is not yet possible for two unprivileged users of the system to send coins directly to each other in a P2P way. The intention here is to allow community efforts to advertise things like Litecoin, but not to allow ICO funding, even when the ICO is disguised in various ways.[2]: A loggable mixer is a service marketed primarily for improving transaction privacy which accepts full custody of cryptocurrency for a time and has the technical ability to log where the cryptocurrency comes from and goes to (even if they promise not to log). |
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Auction ended, final result:
Slots BTC/Slot Person
3 0.07 FortuneJack
2 0.07 lightlord
4 0.06 DogecoinMachine
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covid-19 has give trump a. Exit strategy. He now has the option to resign with health as the reason. For the good of the country I am not well enough so I appoint my daughter as the vp. Pence Trump still the ticket.
And pence pardons trump for any and all crimes committed in office.
Just o e of many moves trump now has due to covid-19
Honestly it's not a bad idea as a hail mary strategy. Trump already had only a small chance of pulling this off, he didn't do well enough in the debate, and now he won't be able to campaign effectively. We've all gotten trained from our experience with 2016 to think that Trump is somehow going to pull this off, but it's looking almost impossible now, so something utterly crazy like that might be in order. A lot of people are holding their noses to vote for Biden just because they despise Trump. Biden is such a terrible candidate that even a boring Republican like Romney or Pence would in ordinary times wipe the floor with him. If they switch to Ivanka, some of Trump's die-hard base will stick with her, and some people who are only reluctantly voting for Biden would switch or at least not vote. |
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This month 134 users were eligible. Old: theymos
gmaxwell
malevolent
Balthazar
qwk
mprep
Dabs
Foxpup
philipma1957
babo
Cyrus
peloso
Welsh
ibminer
TookDk
vizique
Timelord2067
jeremypwr
yogg
by rallier
dbshck
hilariousandco
Avirunes
Lydian
mindrust
buckrogers
Buchi-88
Lesbian Cow
suchmoon
JayJuanGee
achow101
DaveF
teeGUMES
owlcatz
examplens
minerjones
yahoo62278
Royse777
zazarb
o_solo_miner
ezeminer
SyGambler
WhiteManWhite
LeGaulois
DarkStar_
SFR10
TwitchySeal
TryNinja
bob123
eddie13
johhnyUA
ekiller
condoras
bL4nkcode
Coin_trader
polymerbit
Yatsan
xtraelv
Ale88
duesoldi
Kryptowerk
bobita
nullius
Vispilio
imhoneer
krogothmanhattan
wolwoo
JollyGood
Blacknavy
xenon131
roycilik
CryptopreneurBrainboss
El duderino_
KTChampions
Steamtyme
Coin-1
o_e_l_e_o
3meek
logfiles
joniboini
Maus0728
TheBeardedBaby
coinlocket$
dkbit98
mole0815
witcher_sense
asche
cabalism13
anonymousminer
fillippone
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I tend to visualize the price of Bitcoin as being composed of two components: a "digital gold" component which will behave similarly to gold, and a "risk asset" component which will behave like leveraged exposure to the S&P 500. (Neither with 100% correlation, of course, since Bitcoin is its own thing.) The gold component is maybe 20% of the price currently, while the risk-asset component is maybe 80% of the price, so the risk-asset component usually dominates.
I think that any clear resolution to the election will boost risk assets significantly in the medium-term, Bitcoin included, since one of the biggest risks will be taken out of the picture. A chaotic, disputed election outcome will probably cause risk assets including Bitcoin to crash. If chaos lasts a long time, the "digital gold" component of the Bitcoin price may start to dominate more, and this may allow its price to recover more quickly than some other assets. Long-term, a Biden presidency is probably somewhat worse for Bitcoin, since his administration will be more anti-Bitcoin and will be much more likely to put forward harmful regulations. (Not that Trump is super pro-Bitcoin or anything...) I wouldn't expect these sorts of long-term predicted effects to cause much shorter-term price action, though, other than maybe a very-short-term panic crash.
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Hopefully these debates get better. Total win for Biden though as a messy debate helps him. Trump needed a great debate and he didn't get it.
The second presidential debate is likely to be the exact opposite of the first. It's moderated by Steve Scully, "the most patient man on television". Most people are probably imagining that Scully will be even weaker than Wallace, but as someone who's watched hundreds of hours of C-SPAN's Washington Journal over the years, let me assure you that he won't be, by far. Scully has decades of experience in moderating, he's the most active of the C-SPAN hosts at pushing back at callers, and he's the most willing to insert his own bias. His bias is that of someone who's lived in the DC bubble for so long that it's all he can conceive. He's someone who actually thinks that MSNBC journalists are unbiased, that the national security state is staffed entirely with honest actors, that the system made sense and was basically working pre-Trump, etc. While I'm sure that Scully will honestly try to be fair, he is fundamentally biased against everything that Trump stands for, and he will feel duty-bound to moderate him very harshly. I predict that the second debate will end up breaking into two disjointed pieces: the first will be a raucous debate between Trump and Steve Scully, and the second will be a peaceful, boring townhall between Biden and some citizens, with Trump muted. |
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Not a boring debate, though very messy. Trump was interrupting so much that a lot of people might've just lost interest and turned off the channel. If you did watch, then Trump was clearly dominating; Biden looked very weak. Biden supporters will be even more irritated at Trump than usual for rudely steamrolling over Biden, though I don't think that their enthusiasm (=likeliness to vote) will be increased. Trump's supporters will be pretty excited. The most important factor was whether anyone was convinced that Biden is not the safe pick, and I think that there may have been a bit of this due to how incoherent/distractable/weak he was, but there was so much interruption from Trump that this effect may have been reduced. In many cases Trump's first inturruption clearly threw off Biden's train of thought and probably would've caused him to falter for the next 60 seconds if left alone, but Trump kept interrupting him, which ruins the effect. Trump would've been better-served by cutting his interruptions by 75% IMO (though definitely not eliminating them).
I think that it was a good night for Trump overall. Better than I expected, though far from perfect for him, and probably not enough to really shake up the race.
There were a lot of controversial things Trump said, but most of it will slide off of Teflon Don like usual. The only huge flub I saw from him was his refusal to denounce white nationalists. He handed that exchange very poorly for no apparent reason, and if the media makes a big deal out of this, I could see this actually hurting him a bit.
Random notes I made while watching:
- Reasonable realpolitik answer from Trump on the court nomination. Best to drop any pretense of consistency, since everyone knows that's BS.
- Trump was effective at prodding Biden about packing the court
- Biden's prepared "look at your empty chair [from people who died from coronavirus]" response came off to me as an incredibly distasteful obvious political heart-strings-pull. Not sure how it will be viewed generally.
- Interesting for Trump to note his CDC's lying on masks
- Even Wallace laughed at Trump's joke about nobody showing up to Biden events
- Trump was strong on the tax story. Directly denied it, changed the subject, distracted Biden when he was talking about it. It's really effective to blame Biden for creating the tax loopholes that Trump exploited.
- It was very bad moderating for Wallace to ask a question about Critical Race Theory in a debate. Most viewers will have never heard of this, and will think that it's just some generic anti-racism sensitivity training, but this specific program has many critics on both the right and left. You could debate its merits, but you can't expect someone to even properly explain the issue in 2 minutes. (Trump should've dodged it more directly rather than actually trying to half-explain it.)
- Biden had some good prepared remarks on suburbs and community policing, and Trump's prodding on this doesn't seem effective to me
- One moment Trump is accusing Biden of writing a too-harsh, racist crime bill, the next he's saying that he's weak on law & order...
- Trump's "name one police group supporting you", and Biden's failure to do so, was super effective.
- Biden should've been able to fire back more strongly at Trump's refusal to commit to accepting the election outcome.
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The first presidential debate is tonight. Unlike the conventions, the debates do get quite a bit of viewership. The first 2016 debate had an average viewership of 84 million; for comparison, the Super Bowl a few months later had 111 million average viewers -- not that much higher. Most viewers are "cheering for their team", and are not particularly convinceable, though debate performance may affect enthusiasm. If you agree with everything your candidate says in the debate, but you don't see their performance as some kind of slam dunk, and the media is mixed about who actually "won", then you may be less enthusiastic and therefore less likely to vote. If you see your candidate as totally destroying the other guy, then this may really fire you up to vote.
Trump is pretty far behind Biden in the polls, so he could really use some excellent debates. It's not good enough for Trump to come out of the debates looking like the person who best made his points. It's not really helpful for Trump to come out ahead on any debates of actual issues (abortion, taxes, etc.); rather, Trump needs to make Biden not look like the safe choice. Most people who are going to vote for Biden are doing it because they don't like Trump (to varying degrees), and they view Biden as a "safe enough" return to the pre-Trump status quo. Even if Biden looks a bit weak in the debate, or he communicates his policy ideas worse, or in many cases even if viewers disagree with most of Biden's policies: if voters don't like Trump and they come out of these debates thinking that Biden looks like a normal, boring politician, then they're likely to vote for him.
The best case for Trump would be for Biden to get visibly angry and incoherent, as he has a few times on the campaign trail and in a few interviews. Maybe Trump can goad him into this, but surely Biden's campaign will have anticipated this strategy and taken every possible step to prevent it. Biden's performance in the primary debates was boring, but he didn't fall apart, and that would probably be a good enough performance here. Trump will attack Biden much more strongly than any of the Democratic candidates did, though.
If Trump can't make Biden completely fall apart, then his goals will be:
- Have a lot of good attack lines that will fire up his base.
- Avoid looking like a crazy, dangerous person, as this could fire up Biden's base and put off swing voters.
- Paint Biden as dangerously radical. (Though I think it's difficult to credibly do this, since it's not how Biden comes off whatsoever.)
- Point to the fact that Biden in many ways created the problems which caused people to resort to voting Trump in 2016
(Some of these are contradictory, so it'd be difficult to do all of them.)
A boring/ordinary debate is a Biden win, even if Trump is ultimately seen as a slight "debate winner". Trump needs to turn every policy/issue into a way of attacking Biden, and these attacks have to be really effective. I think that Trump probably won't be able to do well enough to move the needle. While Biden isn't all there mentally, IMO Trump's mental faculties have also degraded since 2016, he's in a worse political position, and Biden is more likeable than Hillary. But if Trump does pull it off, then it'll be a very interesting debate!
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