Fake sales driving down btc price. Can use co-conspirators, or multiple accounts. Examine the spikes carefully, thay hardly move price and are dark to dark. Wish I'd thought of it.
Can you explain how fake sales drive the price down? From TA thread: With "Dark Pool Only" trades, you could have two accounts and sell a large quantity for a lower price than current bids to your other account. Sure, you pay the fees on both sides, but when people see the order go through they see it as a legit trade and adjust their price expectations accordingly.
Of course it will only work a few times, but it can work because there are a lot of inexperienced traders involved with bitcoin. As to whether this is what's going on, IDK. I'm away from home and I've really only been on the forums and glanced at charts a few times. Even supposing that people are actually going to care about last when Last: $5.50 Bid: $5.80 Ask: $5.90 you'll likely just run into other dark pool offers. You may as well just make a thread saying "Hey guys I just sold 10,000BTC at $4.25" No one cares. Open offers matter. Inexperienced traders don't all have 80% of their brains on the floor. Anyone who is reading into this shit is just as likely to read into it the opposite way that you are hoping. |
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Go ahead, you can do it, you have my permission.
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I'm hoping a slide down to 5$, hopefully even 4$, but not much more than that.
You intend to snap up some coins at that price range? So what does everyone think is the strongest reason for this massive selloff? Maybe these guys who liked bitcoin enough to totally forget about it and then find 40kBTC on their hard drive.
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Bitcoin drops in value to the point where laszlo was better off with the pizzas after all.
LOL. "Haha, do you remember Bitcoin? I heard a guy got two free pizzas." |
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If I trade USD/EUR, the spread is usually somewhere between 1 and 3 pips (.0001). Why is the spread on MtGox so much higher, to .01 to .7 or more? What is/are the cause, effects, and remedy (it seems like a bad thing?) I have no idea myself and and searching for "spread" on the forums did not work out how I had hoped, so sorry if this is a stale topic. Thoughts? Explanations? Baseless conjecture?  The spread is just the difference between the highest bid and the lowest ask that people offer. Generally more participants means those get closer together. The spread on Mtgox has been getting better over time. |
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speculation = X (ie. we don't know)
Ah, I get it. If it wasn't speculation we would now for sure. So since it is speculation we must not know and this must be the variable portion. |
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Bitcoin makes it to the front page of The Economist.
There are more people with a Bitcoin address than a Facebook account.
There are more people in Africa with a Bitcoin address than a bank account.
There are more people in the world with a Bitcoin address than a bank account.
Paypal supports accounts denominated in BTC (just kidding, this will never happen!)
A major bank supports accounts denominated in BTC.
Iceland holds BTC reserves.
Bitcoin replaces WoW gold.
A major university offers a Bitcoin-specific graduate degree.
Bitcoin is used to pay for a kidnap ransom.
A Bitcoin bounty is awarded to an anonymous player who correctly predicts the time and place of death of the kidnapper.
The first block is generated in space.
My hairdresser recommends that I should invest in Bitcoin.
... Hair dresser takes Bitcoin. Hair dresser only takes Bitcoin. |
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It's important work, but so frustrating to me. I wish I could write the magic to make him and others with the same idea understand.
Yes, gold bootstrapped from useful good to awesome thing to barter to money. But that doesn't mean it's the only way!
And how much non-money value does a thing need to be money? Is it enough for one person to have one small use for it?
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The "Depth of Market" chart and listing on mtgox should be taken with a large rock of salt if not completely disregarded.
1. Large orders, (the most important ones if you're trying to gauge market sentiment), don't show up.
2. Orders may be placed and canceled at whim, as you just pointed out.
3. Trading bots exist which can instantly place orders at certain times without showing up on the Depth of Market list.
There is still meaning there. When you see a bid for 10 coins at $6.80 each you know that at this moment no one with access to Mtgox values having extra coins more than that many dollars. Maybe there is a dark order at $6.82 so there is some info that you don't have, but that doesn't change the info that you do have. And you get the info for free! |
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I remember days of $200 volume. $120k doesn't seem low to me at all.
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Bleh, advertisement for Ven. Wtf do people think? A private currency pegged to a bunch of government currencies, gross and boring imo. |
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How could an offer mess up a market? That's all a market is, a place where people make and accept offers.
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I quit generating these over a year ago, thinking it was going nowhere. My i7 920 could generate 50 coins a day easily. Should've. Kept. Going. Oh well. My wallet currently holds 300 coins. Is it worth putting it back on generating, or do custom miners 100% dominate the coin awards now?
Saddest part is, I had 400. Got scammed for 100 for a month of web hosting back when BTC were practically worthless, and $1 would get you 20 BTC.
GPU mining is where it's at now and even most of those join pools. Congrats on your score, you doubting doubter. |
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And very often, "we all" are wrong.
An old, rational, technophilic, libertarian, anti-establishment, religious, nationalistic, closed minded (at least my kids think so), pessimistic, conceptual thinker.
Hey old man, he said typical. Bring a couple hundred of your rational, religious, nationalists along if you can and then he'll be wrong. |
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@pseudocode2: you ask 'Do you know of anything "better" that could replace it in the short-medium term'. the answer, which will be increasingly recognized over the next few weeks, is 'any other block chain that uses similar technology to the open-source bitcoin client'. the value on all the exchanges is not the value of 'a bitcoin' in the general sense. it's the value of a bitcoin in one specific speculative block chain. that chain has no special value to trade.
Why do you say that? There are only two things that differentiate a chain from others. It's difficulty and it's breadth of acceptance. I don't think any other chain will be able to bootstrap itself into value like this one. Why would someone who comes along choose a chain that had no double spend protection and no merchants accepting it when there is one that already has those things? Because they can get a higher number of them for the same cost? That's meaningless. |
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It's hard to believe that people are replying to the idea of "restarting the chain" with something other than LOL, ROFLMAO!  Those who wish to do that are free to do so at any time. The technology is out: since you think it's inevitable anyway, write a new client, fork the chain into Inflatacoin, RestartaCoin, or whatever! I can't believe that someone would actually propose "restarting" the original chain as something other than a bad joke! Takes all kinds to make the world... I think that was misunderstanding. People are talking about starting another chain, which is still silly imo, but it needs to be done for learning purposes. There will only ever be one chain that is similar to the Bitcoin chain. It's where all the incentives point. |
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Price drags difficulty not the other way. If people value coins more highly then people will pay more to mine for them. But people paying more to mine for them doesn't make people willing to pay more.
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I already referred to the list, but the point was that how is it supposed to function as a currency if there are only a tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny number of stores willing to accept it. I think people forgetting that this is supposed to be a currency, not really an investment. (Or maybe to other it is supposed to be investment, but as currency it's not really good to have such a small people using it was a currency and the vast majority speculating in it.)
It's new. Stores aren't going to all start accepting Bitcoin immediately. Some might want the exchange rate to settle down. Some might not have the technical know how. Some haven't even heard about Bitcoin yet. Etc. It is growing though. So, we shall see. Well is there a place that actually does showcase NEW stores? I mean, yeah, I can look through that list every week, but I won't necessarily notice when new shops pop up. It would be cool to date new merchants so we can see growth easily. I'd guess the number of new this month is the same as the number up until this month. Each one used to be news and get me excited, but now they just keep coming. |
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This is a frequently overlooked point.
A related fantasy is that no profit is real until you convert it to dollars.
There's also herd mentality: Everyone is in dollar, so if Titanic sinks, that's okay, I am not alone. Jumping to a smaller ship? no thanks. Yep it is natural, but scary when you think closer though. If I go broke alone there are people around to help me, but if we all go broke together we're super screwed. |
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1. I still can't see how newcomers pay any price for getting into the new BTC economy. This is markedly different from adopting a gold standard, since nobody is forcing anybody to back anything by anything or to buy anything. It is true that the early adopters gain, but who loses? Maybe the people who hold $, EUR, etc., because their value should (slightly) decrease. But this effect should be minimal and would occur just the same with InflaCoin.
2. One problem that I can see with the huge rally in prices that so many of us are expecting: At current BTC prices, about $50,000 a day are given away in mined coins. Were 1 BTC to cost $7000, this would be $50,000,000 every day. Mining is profitable until that much money is burnt every day in electricity and other mining costs.
2.a) It will take a while until that much money can be burnt - especially since unfortunately it does not pay for normal users to just mine on their CPU. So I think it will take a while for the BTC/$ price to rise.
2.b) Do we really need to burn $50,000,000 every day on electricity? Is there a plausible scenario where this "protection cost" is spent in something else, like buying special hashing devices for every user (or, preferably, not at all)? IMHO these are the real social costs of bitcoin. Has anyone tried calculating (bounding) comparable social costs for other currencies (banks, military ...) per unit? I have no idea if this is a bargain (which would be a great argument for bitcoin) or a terrible waste.
It is a bargain .... we have no idea how much waste is going into keeping the current corpse of a monetary system barely breathing. It is on the order of U$D trillions. Seriously, someone solves a trillion dollar problem for a cost 6 orders of magnitude smaller at absolute most and there are still haters. Sheesh. It's like if I invented a teleporter that ran on one 9volt battery. EPA would probably shut me down. Much better to use 10,000,000 shipping containers I'm sure. |
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