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4401  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Your Business Risk Management Strategy? on: May 24, 2011, 11:40:29 AM
I think a different strategy will become the norm soon. Buy a bunch of slightly out of the money puts. You will be guaranteed to be able to get, say, 90% of what you expect, but you can keep the upside until the very minute you actually need the money.

All we need is a good site to trade options at and a really intuitive retail interface for merchants for whom currency speculation is not their thing. I bet we see it in a month or two.
4402  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Do Bitcoins Disapear on: May 24, 2011, 11:37:05 AM
i think the intent of the question was more along the lines of "If a wallet is deleted then what happens to the bitcoins stored in it?"

Actually that is a good observation. If Bitcoin computer are lost are those coins lost forever. How do lost coins get back into circulation again?

thx

They don't get back into circulation. Any way to get them back without the keys would be a way to get other people's coins without their keys. At least with Bitcoin you can back up your money.
4403  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Do Bitcoins Disapear on: May 24, 2011, 11:33:05 AM
Where is the wallet.dat

I looked with a search but could'nt find it

It's a hidden file by default so your cat won't scratch it, er, your possum.
4404  Economy / Economics / Re: Potential problem with Bitcoin investments on: May 24, 2011, 11:32:25 AM


Only if I was a large investor.  Cheesy It's only those with huge financial resources (like $trillions) that can control the markets like that.

Ah, right. Everything is different for the rich, none of my explanations or examples apply to them. I think the rich must be level 80 wizards or something.
4405  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Email scratch cards [IDEA] on: May 24, 2011, 11:30:29 AM
A lot of people have been making gambling games and it got me thinking.

Sell one time games sendable via email. Maybe you have the game on a site already, just add the option to pay for a game and send the link to someone instead of playing it yourself.

This could be a tool for spreading Bitcoin. I imagine the site partnering with Bitcoin shops so a winner is directed to something fun to buy right away.

Also I've always liked the idea of selling guaranteed winning scratch off cards as presents. A loser is lame and seems like a nothing gift sometimes, but a winner can make a day. Also you can give a lot more than you get credit for that way, if you're into that.


Seems like a fantastic idea... I'd be keen to be involved and help in the design and marketing side of this Smiley

I also am quite good at maths and if you offer a card for 0.1 BTC then offer them the chance to win upto 10 BTC back and have a winner every 1/3 people that choose to play all winning different amounts sounds like a great idea.

Regards,
Charlie

I was imagining something like 2 sliders. One for payout and one for chance of winning. So you can do 30% chance at winning 1BTC for .3BTC+fee or 100% chance at winning 50BTC to give grandma a heart attack, but that costs the full 50BTC+fee. Maybe have no fee even and get your money from the shops you'll direct people too. It's probably worth a lot to have recent winners of Bitcoin dropped at your door if you sell ipods for bitcoin. Probably doesn't hurt to make money on both sides though.

I put the idea out there because I'm not going to do it myself, but would like to see it done.

oh i c .. Sad

Are you sad that I'm not implementing? Don't be, I'm sure you can find someone.
4406  Economy / Economics / Re: The current Bitcoin economic model doesn't work on: May 24, 2011, 11:28:37 AM
The inelastic supply of bitcoins is why it has 'market cap' of $40M and your idea isn't valued. Bitcoin can hold value, your system can't. Don't believe me, just do it. Maybe you are right and I'll eat my internet hat.
4407  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I'm new to this forum on: May 24, 2011, 11:25:16 AM
Pretty sure this is spam. Who advertises iPad cases in their sig?

Would a spammer make a question that specific? That seems a bit to good for someone who's job was writing a post that wouldn't get deleted.

Did mod remove links?

Yes, I removed the link.
I'm not deleting the post because it's still a valid question.
Was that really in order? People advertise their services in signatures. They should be bitcoin- related or accepting, but it's the person's first post, give them a break.

It's extra suspicious that he's only got 1 post and already has multiple links out. If I'm reading the data correctly he made that signature and post and left in one minute seven seconds.
4408  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Email scratch cards [IDEA] on: May 24, 2011, 11:17:33 AM
A lot of people have been making gambling games and it got me thinking.

Sell one time games sendable via email. Maybe you have the game on a site already, just add the option to pay for a game and send the link to someone instead of playing it yourself.

This could be a tool for spreading Bitcoin. I imagine the site partnering with Bitcoin shops so a winner is directed to something fun to buy right away.

Also I've always liked the idea of selling guaranteed winning scratch off cards as presents. A loser is lame and seems like a nothing gift sometimes, but a winner can make a day. Also you can give a lot more than you get credit for that way, if you're into that.


Seems like a fantastic idea... I'd be keen to be involved and help in the design and marketing side of this Smiley

I also am quite good at maths and if you offer a card for 0.1 BTC then offer them the chance to win upto 10 BTC back and have a winner every 1/3 people that choose to play all winning different amounts sounds like a great idea.

Regards,
Charlie

I was imagining something like 2 sliders. One for payout and one for chance of winning. So you can do 30% chance at winning 1BTC for .3BTC+fee or 100% chance at winning 50BTC to give grandma a heart attack, but that costs the full 50BTC+fee. Maybe have no fee even and get your money from the shops you'll direct people too. It's probably worth a lot to have recent winners of Bitcoin dropped at your door if you sell ipods for bitcoin. Probably doesn't hurt to make money on both sides though.

I put the idea out there because I'm not going to do it myself, but would like to see it done.
4409  Economy / Economics / Re: Potential problem with Bitcoin investments on: May 24, 2011, 11:07:10 AM
Hi,

I learned about Bit today. Absolutely fascinating concept. One thing I thought could potentially be a problem though is if many people will start to hoard bitcoins for investment purposes. Since the bitcoins already are a scarce resource, a lot of hoarding will make them even more scarce. This will make the bitcoin value increase. Large investors can collect a huge number of bitcoins, wait a while until the value goes up, and then quickly sell all their bitcoins at a high value which in turn will cause the bitcoin value to go down. Then they buy a large amount of bitcoins again at the lower value and repeat the cycle. In this way large investors, or crowdsourcing of investors can 'pump' money out of the bitcoin market.

If people realize, as you did, that bitcoins have value then they will want to hold them. That much is right.

It is a convenient abstraction to think of there being 'a price' for something, but actually there are just offers to buy and sell. In markets with lots of players and good liquidity the highest bid and lowest ask are close together. This is often true of the Bitcoin market at MtGox now. However, when a large sale is made these diverge. You cannot sell an unlimited amount without dropping the price, and you cannot buy back automatically at this low price, new offers will need to be made.

Manipulating markets is costly. It can be very profitable if you can pay the price with someone else's money and profit with your own, but there is no magic riskless money to be made outside of that.

It's true that when selling huge amounts of a scarce commodity, the price will fall, BUT with a time delay, long enough for the big players to be able to pump the price up and down at their own will and catch the right peaks and dips in the price.

I guess you've got some money coming your way then. I wish I was smart enough to understand how markets worked.

I just moved the price down from 7.0125 to 7.011, but unsurprisingly the cheapest I can buy back for is still 7.0699. I'm going to have to wait for someone to put an ask out below 7.011 in order to make any money, and that is completely out of my control. The lowest ask could fall or it could go to 8.013 for all I know.

4410  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I'm new to this forum on: May 24, 2011, 10:57:57 AM
Pretty sure this is spam. Who advertises iPad cases in their sig?

Would a spammer make a question that specific? That seems a bit to good for someone who's job was writing a post that wouldn't get deleted.

Did mod remove links?
4411  Economy / Economics / Re: Potential problem with Bitcoin investments on: May 24, 2011, 10:53:08 AM
Hoarding for the past 5000+ years has done a scarce resource like gold only good.  Wheat or other limited supply commodities may also be compared.  Eventually the hoarder will swap his hoard for something else he needs.  And the new person who swapped will then be the hoarder for as long as he can save that which he hoards, before he needs to swap it for something he needs to fulfill in his more immediate needs.  Due to defined scarcity, Bitcoins (when stable over the long term, like other scarce commodities of finite quantity) is a good savings mechanism with a good yield in the most recent past.

Yes, every bitcoin is always hoarded. And if you want a neutral word instead of a loaded one then every bitcoin is always saved.
4412  Economy / Economics / Re: Potential problem with Bitcoin investments on: May 24, 2011, 10:51:57 AM
Hi,

I learned about Bit today. Absolutely fascinating concept. One thing I thought could potentially be a problem though is if many people will start to hoard bitcoins for investment purposes. Since the bitcoins already are a scarce resource, a lot of hoarding will make them even more scarce. This will make the bitcoin value increase. Large investors can collect a huge number of bitcoins, wait a while until the value goes up, and then quickly sell all their bitcoins at a high value which in turn will cause the bitcoin value to go down. Then they buy a large amount of bitcoins again at the lower value and repeat the cycle. In this way large investors, or crowdsourcing of investors can 'pump' money out of the bitcoin market.

If people realize, as you did, that bitcoins have value then they will want to hold them. That much is right.

It is a convenient abstraction to think of there being 'a price' for something, but actually there are just offers to buy and sell. In markets with lots of players and good liquidity the highest bid and lowest ask are close together. This is often true of the Bitcoin market at MtGox now. However, when a large sale is made these diverge. You cannot sell an unlimited amount without dropping the price, and you cannot buy back automatically at this low price, new offers will need to be made.

Manipulating markets is costly. It can be very profitable if you can pay the price with someone else's money and profit with your own, but there is no magic riskless money to be made outside of that.
4413  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I'm new to this forum on: May 24, 2011, 10:21:23 AM
Thanks. I should probably get in the habit of directing to links instead of banging keys for 15 seconds every time. It would probably be interesting to compare my answers to the same question over time. They probably get shorter and less accurate.
Next step would be making a keyboard shortcut Smiley

That would be great. alt+2, alt+7 and I could look like a forum god, spewing knowledge.
4414  Economy / Economics / Re: Current Bitcoin economic model is unsustainable on: May 24, 2011, 10:19:26 AM
Okay, I'm finally convinced, you can go ahead and do it now.
4415  Economy / Marketplace / Email scratch cards [IDEA] on: May 24, 2011, 10:16:44 AM
A lot of people have been making gambling games and it got me thinking.

Sell one time games sendable via email. Maybe you have the game on a site already, just add the option to pay for a game and send the link to someone instead of playing it yourself.

This could be a tool for spreading Bitcoin. I imagine the site partnering with Bitcoin shops so a winner is directed to something fun to buy right away.

Also I've always liked the idea of selling guaranteed winning scratch off cards as presents. A loser is lame and seems like a nothing gift sometimes, but a winner can make a day. Also you can give a lot more than you get credit for that way, if you're into that.
4416  Economy / Economics / Re: difficulty too high while bitcoin society too small on: May 24, 2011, 10:02:49 AM
If "afterburner229" have better code for us to examine we will be very pleased.
4417  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Nice spike in Google trends! on: May 24, 2011, 09:58:25 AM
According to alexa, bitcoin.org is currently ranked 3,878 on the 7 day average and 6,742 on the 1 month average.

My favorite part of the Alexa info:

Relative to the overall population of internet users, [Bitcoin.org's] audience tends to be male; it also appeals more to childless, low-income users under the age of 35 who browse from home.


It apparently would serve us well if everybody got out of their parent's basement and browsed bitcoin.org from Starbucks with your girlfriend and your rich aunt.

Haha, if I was Alexa I would make that the default for every webpage until I knew different though. Wouldn't be surprised if that's what they do.
4418  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I'm new to this forum on: May 24, 2011, 09:56:51 AM
when half are found

The half is relative to a total amount which is arbitrarily set to 21M, a valid coin can be checked by going all the way back to its generation.

And please do read the FAQ before thinking 21M isn't a very big amount Smiley

Also welcome here

Thanks. I should probably get in the habit of directing to links instead of banging keys for 15 seconds every time. It would probably be interesting to compare my answers to the same question over time. They probably get shorter and less accurate.
4419  Other / Obsolete (selling) / Re: Procurement service of kindle ebooks, 1BTC for every 30USD!!! on: May 24, 2011, 09:52:14 AM
That is a good deal. I'm surprised to learn there are kindle books that expensive.
4420  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I'm new to this forum on: May 24, 2011, 09:50:17 AM
The rule defining a valid coin is such that when half are found the rate at which they are found drops by half, when half the remain are found, it drops by half again, and so on. This leads to there never being more than a predetermined amount, which happens to be just under 21M because of rounding to the 8th decimal.

That flower is nice, but it's probably going to get old to people fast since it takes up half the screen every time you post.
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