They've said the order book will be cleared, so there won't be a price at all until new bids and asks get posted by people who have logged on since its been back up.

Which is what concerns me.  

Probably some retarded transaction fee.

if I'm not mistaken, that's factored into my numbers. that's at the end of 2013, right?

I think current prices are highly speculative, and even if bitcoins will be a huge success story cannot be sustained for the next few years.

Here's why, counter-arguments welcome. If you think I'm just trolling or trying to buy cheap, simply ignore this thread please.

I'll assume a price of 20$/BTC from here on, even though the top was at 30.

1.

2.6 million coins a year are mined until 2013, 1.3 million coins a year after that.
at 20$/BTC, that's equivalent to more than 50 million dollars in one year, or approx. 170 million dollars within 5 years, that have to flow into the system to sustain this price.

i.e. people have to buy BTCs for 170 million dollars!
what are the circumstances to make that happen?

(that's of course only if miners sell all of their gains, but if miners keep some of their coins it only means they expect to sell it for even more in the future!)

2.

bitcoin can draw its value only from demand from circulation, and temporarily from speculation.

money supply definitions are very diverse and incomparable, but just to give you an idea: M1 money supply of the eurozone is about 28% of annual GDP, M1 money supply of the US about 14% of GDP.

a bitcoin economy with a money supply of even 30% annual GDP would be valued at 21 million BTC, or 430 million $ a year.
what do you think the bitcoin economy amounts to a year? 5 figures? 6 figures?
what demand for bitcoins do you think that creates?

3.

in addition to that, by the above numbers and 6.5 million BTC supply now, the BTC money supply grows by 40% within a year, or by 18% a year over the next 5 years.

that's huge inflation, unless there is ADDITIONAL demand from circulation and/or speculation.

a bitcoin economy valued at 430 million dollars a year now at 20$/BTC is at 600 million $ in a year, or 1 BILLION $ a year in 5 years.

==>

20$/BTC is HIGHLY speculative.
maybe the bitcoin economy explodes and these prices are sustained, but to think that the price even rises substantially would mean the scenario above would have to be outperformed, or demand from speculation increase even more so, for years to come.


edit: corrections. I miscalculated the GDP numbers.

That's not a bad idea. I'll offer one gram of kitten for each bitcoin.

3 lines, smaller (non-modifiable) type size, no images.

As a partially responsible party, I definitely concur there should be a dedicated area of the forum for games/gambling

Nope. Pretty sure it'd be big news here if anyone had gotten one, I think it's safe to assume none have gone out.

Considering that they've blown through every previous target date/time I think it's pretty clear they won't be opening when they predicted.

That is a good idea, make it a truly independent site with low over head, and true anonymity. However there must be a way to verify age so that we are in compliance with basic international laws. I don't want the anonymity aspect to get to the heads of some bad people. This will be a very clean site (as clean as any other adult site) with the exception that people can pay on shows like if it were cash at a strip club (bitcoins baby), and anyone can technically participate as long as they follow basic guidelines. Not all of these complicated and invasive credit card sign ups.