Interesting, first time seeing that--I'll have to read through it in its entirety. The second to the last post though that bumped it still is currently listed as "may open again if there is enough interest." Even from a conventional "shorting" standpoint, I haven't seen anyone lending their XMR out, just derivative-based. Yes for a period of time when this market was open one could take a net short position by purchasing a put option. I do agree that from a strict definition of "shorting" this has not been possible yet in XMR; however when people sell thier longs and hope to buy back cheaper, they are motivated by greed (I want more XMR) rather than fear (XMR is going to zero). This has all the psychological characteristics of a short. |
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Isn't a instamine == premine when it's done before anyone else has time to ramp up?
If the implication is that releasing the mining software on GNU/Linux ahead of Microsoft Windows converts an instamine into a premine the answer is most emphatically NO. |
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Does donating by credit card via paypal still give you points in the hall of fame?
It should at the market XMR/USD rate if USD is used, but is this even possible? Which brings me to my next question: Where exactly is the information for how to donate on the getmonero.org site now that is has been removed from this thread? Thanks. I would make a suggestion: Link back to the above page from the Hall of Fame page. |
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Does donating by credit card via paypal still give you points in the hall of fame?
It should at the market XMR/USD rate if USD is used, but is this even possible? Which brings me to my next question: Where exactly is the information for how to donate on the getmonero.org site now that is has been removed from this thread? |
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Nice job changing the subject when your previous claim was shown factually false.
Care to show me how it was 'shown false'?
Who cares about a claim that something "might" go up 100 000x? If that's the best you've got you should give up trolling. I'll do him one better. It "might" go up 1 000 000x. Such wow!
No-one should care except it is posted on a thread that generally deletes any questioning of such claims. People who are unaware of how the scam operates may lose BTC - that is reason to care. Relying on someone unleashing a stampede of bulls an a handful of tired and exhausted bears is not a sound investment strategy. I have given my reasons why one should not be caught short XMR in this market in my response to said post. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg10593089#msg10593089. If this stampede of bulls does actually happen, and one is long XMR, one should consider it a bonus no more no less. |
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Bill Gates is addicted to propriety solutions even when they make zero sense, and Bitcoin is not propriety. He also does not want to make this obvious. This recent interview with the Verge, where the interviewer challenges him on GMOs and locked down propriety software clarifies this very well. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8RETFyDKcw0Edit: Take a very close look at the body language. |
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The biggest weakness of Darkcoin I think is if the regime decides that coin tumbling is illegal and akin to money laundering and all it will take is a quick court order to go yank all those Amazon cloud servers hosting the Masternodes real fast.
...and the biggest strength is that masternodes are decentralised so they can be set up in 5 minutes on any other of 1-2 billion computing units around the world. The critical thing that secures a masternode isn't a poxy Amazon cloud server, it's a blockchain address containing 1000 coins (which isn't hosted on a cloud server  ). So, the actual capacity of DRK to fill these computing units is .0011% as an absolute maximum of number of computing units (2 billion) that will be a masternode. Your argument would have better off just mentioning that there are 1-2 billion units capable of decentralizing the network, if we were to agree on the fact that likely 90% of those 1-2 billion computing units are easily compromised by air gaps, numerous hardware backdoors, and then even more software vulnerabilities and backdoors. So really, the critical thing is that theres a blockchain hosted by a node...because the actual chances of a single masternode ending up on non compromized software based on chance would be 10% x .0011% I'd wager. So .00011% of all masternodes, which are fairish odds of about 1 in 91k masternodes would end up on noncompromised hardware and software with 1-2 billion users and other numbers pulled totally out of my ass. I mean if 1-2 billion people were to use darkcoin, they're just not all gonna host masternodes. It would probably be from them that the network remained decentralized, rather than a few ten thousand masternodes at that point. The theoretical limit to the number of DRK masternodes at this point in time is 5157 and then there would only be 101 DRK in total left to be used as a currency. http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies// I fail to see where people are getting a few ten thousand masternodes from. |
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Bitcoin or 2.0 projects are XMR's biggest danger.
It's possible that the long term paradime of PoW is broken. In theory the value that the PoW is protecting is always going to be going up while the percentage of money spent protecting it (miner rewards) is going to be going down.
Also the release curve is ponzi schemed. And if people realize this with bitcoin and it is rejected - then XMR will take the brunt of the rejection along with bitcoin.
The fact that XMR doesn't share bitcoin's codebase and limited slow transactions is a really good thing.
I just don't think dark is the danger to XMR - I think the rejection of bitcoin is a much larger issue.
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[2] Actual number of atomic units is M = 264 - 1. A minimum subsidy may be implemented in the future with <1% annual inflation to preserve mining incentives.
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The XMR specification allows for a minimum subsidy with less than 1% annual inflation to be implemented to address both the miner rewards issue and release curve issues. Edit: Careful meticulous research is very important when considering a coin. I say read every little footnote. |
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This is in stark contrast to Darkcoin which has gone for short term gains. In the short term DRK has out performed XMR by a very significant margin. This has come at a price. DRK is in many ways build upon a house of cards that can come tumbling down at any moment. This brings me to my second threat to the XMR bears:
2) A possible collapse of Darkcoin. Given that the market capitalization of Darkcoin is close to 7x that of Monero a sudden collapse of Darkcoin would lead to a flood of refugees looking for an alternative and Monero is a clear option. This also could easily set off a buying panic in XMR.
Here we go... again.  I hold both XMR and DRK but the clear bias you have because you only have XMR is ridiculous. They attack privacy from two different angles. I am simply saying that someone who is short XMR should place very close attention to DRK from a risk management perspective, and yes I hold a long position in XMR and no position in DRK. By the way the same is true for someone who is long XMR which is why I am spending and have spent a fair amount to time learning about DRK and how it works. In spite of this I have not seen anything in my research that would justify me buying DRK. This is because I look at crypto-currency as a medium to long term hold. Hedging by holding both is a possible strategy in some situations but even that can have a significant impact on the price of XMR because of the relative capitalizations of both coins. I see DRK as a possible short term play but over the medium to long term I simply do not like the fundamentals. XMR on the other hand is very much a medium to long term play. |
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Bump for easier recollection.
The options market may open again if there is enough interest.
Last time the downtrend just started and all the options bought were calls.
Maybe this time there is a market for puts. |
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Assuming someone really wanted to buy like 200BTC worth of XMR when the price was low, he couldnt do that without obviously pumping the price. Even more so when half the sell orders were his own.If you dont say anything people will think that, well, the time they were waiting for may be coming indeed and wont sell. They may even buy more. So what is best to do? Tell the people that you are manipulating the price. People dislike that. They play along but stay alarmed and sell when they feel a bit scared. After all its just manipulation. So i would argue that you actually manage to buy the coins you wanted at better price by stating that you are manipulating the price. And this way also has a plus. Your words gain more trust if you say something and that happens. You can use that in the future. Maybe really near future too. Only thing i really dont think you are going to do is to wait 24h to buy. You actually buy the moment you said that you are going to buy. Oh and remember, it is also buying when people (from a wannabe syndicates or not) dump on you I wait 24 hours if I say I wait 24 hours. If I don't say, I can do what I want. Those 24 hours have already expired. What I currently have said is that: - Monero price will rise (from the starting point of 115k); - I will aim to focus the marketing to investor-minded people who have significantly more money than currently invested in Monero; - I have money under management that is about to flow to Monero; - I hope that the small guys who already know about Monero, get back on board first. If you project other wishes of yours to me, hoping that I make them true, you will be disappointed. I have explained what I believe is the best investment approach towards Monero here in this thread, and will probably do it in a dedicated website soon as well. Both the core team and the MEW are cooperatives, because those aims can only be reached by networks of people. The coming Monero Investment Group (MiG) is largely a one-man effort (to eliminate the possibility of collusion). The aim is to dispense facts for people to act upon, for everyone to make his own decision. Let the MEW take care of the social aspect. It's becoming tiring to explain the same thing the 4th time in 4 days, and getting accused of untransparency. These are my plans, and as long as Monero stays cheap, no one can stop me from achieving them. When it goes up, they are achieved. We are changing to the "money talks, bullshit walks" phase. The power that the current holders have against the influx of new money is to sell. That power can be exercised only once. Use it, but with caution, since the target value of Monero is not 10x or even 1,000x, it is 100,000x the current value. As if the XMR bears did not already have enough of a Sword of Damocles hanging over their collective heads before rpietila unleashes his threatened stampede of bulls on them. Here are a couple of examples: 1) The delay in the database and the GUI. The latest Monero missive https://getmonero.org/2015/02/23/monero-missive-for-the-week-of-2015-02-23.html demonstrates the development philosophy very well and why it is so dangerous to the bears long term. Gingeropolous
You mean there's more things that have to happen before the GUI comes out?
Riccardo
Yip…there's a lot of stuff that's "almost there", but there are some essential components and…there's a lot of stuff, I'll give you just one example: refactoring everything out into library form so that we have common libraries for Monero accounts and @wallets, we have a library for the daemon…the connection to the network, we have a library for consensus, so verifying and checking validity of transactions and blocks and signatures and ring signatures, and we also have a library for RPC interfaces.
Having that, and having those library functions and library APIs documented and available, might seem like stuff that we don't need to do to get the GUI out, but it is important because it means that from a QT side we will be able to plug into that library quite easily. And the other up-shot is once we have that done it will open the way to really good third-party implementations, so being able to use those libraries on an iOS or Android wallet means that there's just really cool stuff that can be done without needing to reimplement stuff, you know. This is a classic short term pain for long term gain development strategy. In the short term we see "the pain" in the current market price, but do not be deceived the long term gain can show up at any time and given the nature of the Monero project without any advance notice. This is in stark contrast to Darkcoin which has gone for short term gains. In the short term DRK has out performed XMR by a very significant margin. This has come at a price. DRK is in many ways build upon a house of cards that can come tumbling down at any moment. This brings me to my second threat to the XMR bears: 2) A possible collapse of Darkcoin. Given that the market capitalization of Darkcoin is close to 7x that of Monero a sudden collapse of Darkcoin would lead to a flood of refugees looking for an alternative and Monero is a clear option. This also could easily set off a buying panic in XMR. In conclusion those who have sold XMR at 0.0011 hoping to buy back at 0.0008, maybe should consider cutting their losses. Pigs typically end up being slaughtered in the market, regardless of whether they are of the bull variety or the bear variety. How they get slaughtered may be an interesting academic exercise, but the reality is that the pigs still get slaughtered. |
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Eventually, as usage increases (and I think it will thanks to XMR.to), people that want to buy something privately will maybe buy 50$ worth of XMR even though their purchase only requires 40$ worth. Sure, this is one person now with 10 XMR off the markets, decreasing supply by a tiny tiny fraction, but this will add up, over time.
And further to make speculation of XMR even more difficult, is that the price of XMR doesn't matter for this use case. If I need to buy 50$ worth of XMR to make a private transaction, it doesn't matter if 50$ buys my 150 XMR or if it buys me 0.001 XMR.
When it comes to the idea of price of Monero goes up if it gets more transactional use, this is false statement. Here is very simple reasoning: You convert 50 usd to xmr and spend them and the merchant dumps the coins back to market => the effect is more or less neutral. If the merchant keeps the coins and do not dump them, then it is obviously very bullish especially if there are lot more merchants deciding to hodl. Hodling is the only thing which gives a value for a coin. Without hodling the coin serves a mere token and cannot reach any significiant prices. The latter part of your message is true - indeed it doesn't matter if you get 0.001 XMR or 150 with 50 usd. Monero will rise in price only and only if more new people enter to the markets long time enough. This is not exactly true because no matter how efficient the buyer and seller are in hedging their exposure to XMR there is going to be minimum holding period between the buyer and the seller. The process is is never instantaneous. It is this minimum holding period that makes the use of XMR in commerce very bullish at a fundamental level. |
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That's pretty unethical to his investors ... who he's obligated to look out for (not us) if he's being honest.
That would be a tough case to make when the price has actually gone down in the last 24 hours. |
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But monero is so thinly traded... Your analysis looks good, but it's too easy for even a single actor to make this current market happen.
This is a valid point; however there is the assumption that the large actors will act rationally. Even in large liquid markets a single actor can move the market. Consider for example Warren Buffet suddenly dumping the 9.1% stake in Coca Cola held by Berkshire Hathaway or Bill Gates suddenly dumping his share in Microsoft. In addition XMR has very high liquidity in proportion to its size. A sort by volume in http://coinmarketcap.com/all/ currently places XMR in 5th place overall. It is not like doing Elliot Wave analysis on BCN for example. Edit: The case for Technical Analysis on thinly traded crypto currencies has been made before. For example by s3052 in October 2010 for Bitcoin. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.0. Bitcoin in October 2010 was smaller in capitalization and trading volume than Monero is today. |
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This is my follow up on the TA for the Monero bear market. It is starting to look like a textbook case of a "failed" bear market with a truncated 5th wave and breakout out of a wedge on strong volume. This is actually a rare Elliot Wave pattern. The truncated fifth wave has all the normal sub wave but either does not extend past the 3rd wave or only barely extends past the 3rd wave. In this case an over lap between the 4th and 1st sub waves is allowed because of the triangle / wedge formation. It can be a very difficult pattern to trade because one can relabel the truncated 5th wave and 4th wave into an extended 4th wave bear market correction. http://ewminteractive.com/elliott-wave-patterns/ The indication here is for a significant chance of a sharp upward move.  Disclaimer: I may hold a position in XMR (Monero), XBT (Bitcoin) and / or NMC (Namecoin). This should not be construed as investment advice. Anyone considering an investment in crypto currencies should consult their investment, legal and tax advisers. Investment in XMR or other crypto currencies may lead to a complete loss of funds. |
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So does that put Articmine at 8th as opposed to 10th?
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Yes that is correct and it is perfectly fine with me. If I now understand the formula correctly 8th dan is 5000 XMR, 9th dan is 10000 XMR, 10th dan in 20000 XMR, 11th dan is 50000 XMR, 12th dan is 100000 XMR etc. Then each dan level has multiple diamond sub levels starting with 7th dan. So 7th dan can have 2, 3 or 4 crates of diamonds, 8th dan 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9 crates of diamonds, 9th dan between 10 and 19 crates of diamonds etc. My additional donation of 5,000 XMR is not yet counted (ask David).
And ArticMine's dans are wrong. A higher dan is every time the total amount reaches a figure starting with 1, 2 or 5; so it is logarithmic approximately base 2.
All updated to here, and corrected (I think) You guys will have to tell me how to order the top. I believe rpietila is the highest donator, however Articmine reached 8th Dan first. To this point I have ranked the donors by descending order of time of achievement as opposed to total donated. I will continue this on lower levels, but if you want the top to look different I don't mind a different logic for that. Ready! FIGHT! Originally it was the order of reaching the dan level. So ArticMine would be above me. But since I have more crates of diamonds, and same dan, it looks a bit funny and perhaps I should be listed first. That's what I would do (it matters only in the high levels that were not thought to be much used). Your call.My suggestion is to treat the diamond levels for 7th dan and higher as sub levels. We list the sub levels in order within each dan level. For example: 8-9 Diamond, 8-8 Diamond, 8-7 Diamond, 8-6 Diamond 8-5 Diamond 7-4 Diamond 7-3 Diamond 7-2 Diamond etc. Within each sub level we list donors in order of reaching the sub level. We should also note for 7th dan and above when each sub level is reached. We only list diamond sub levels that are actually occupied. |
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One thing that I've noticed is that the instamine seems to actually have turned out to be a good thing for DRK(in the short term at least) as it clearly gives Evan Duffield a massive incentive to continue to develop and foster growth. Also it enables funding to further the project and it seems that DRK has been pretty consistent with development. Personally I completely dismissed DRK at some point last year and I'm surprised to see that it's continued to do fairly well. But it makes sense because the incentives are aligned with continued development. Long term though single individuals holding so much supply can be dangerous. Even Bitcoin has this same issue though with Satoshi.
Contrast this to XMR where developer funding is a big problem. The XMR devs have put a very large amount of their own money in to paying for research and code reviews and such. And from what I've read the entire team holds less than 80k XMR between them(7 people?). This has been used as a selling point by some people in the XMR community as evidence of a fair distribution, which it seems to be. But fair in the short term doesn't necessarily equate to a situation where those who have the ability to produce the most value actually have the resources to do so. So we get to see the trade offs here between two currencies with similar goals.
edit: that 80k XMR number is probably way out date and doesn't consider the likelyhood that they've all bought more since the price has come down quite a bit.
any coin that begs for money for the developer is a shitcoin. Satoshi never did and I hold all developers to that standard. Don't develop it than if you can't handle not getting handouts back from it. I will take quality FLOSS funded by donations such a GNU/Linux over propriety software and its related scams and malware any day. Just try searching Bing news for "Lenovo" http://www.bing.com/news/search?q=lenovo&FORM=HDRSC6 |
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There is a certain very large bear in the vicinity of the castle. |
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my guess is the xmr.to definitely helped.
yeah! I'll recommand that service for anyone who wants to pay anonymously. It's a very usefull service Using that service means more XMR will be sold (adding liquidity which is a positive thing) therefore I call on current (bag-)hoders to just buy XMR when you want to use xmr.to (keep your wallets cold!) This service can drive demand up and add new people to the community who will start to take some fresh monero off the market Would it not be possible for them to also set it up to accept bitcoins, convert those to moneroj, and then back to bitcoins to make your payment? This would not work because of timing analysis on the XBT for starters. In addition it creates a significant regulatory risk. The way to benefit from the privacy of the XMR is to hold the XMR for a period of time. For example a person that is paid in XBT would use XBT to purchase XMR, transfer the XMR to a second wallet to deal with an exchange not using a high enough mixin, wait a few weeks, and then spend an uncorrelated amount of XBT via XMR.TO. In short without a market exposure to XMR over a period of time I doubt one can benefit from the privacy of XMR |
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