BTC is again recovered. Of course you can throw in figures such as $200, $300, talk is cheap. But BTC is not going there. Last year same thing - the lowest bottom was seen long before the final capitulation.

If you check the situation of Monero at the exchange of your choice, there is not much to buy at these levels. Perhaps people are realizing that double hammering an unrelated coin to Bitcoin is not the road to riches.

...
I think it's probably possible scenario. But we should take into account that LTC was quite artificially pumped by few concerned influential persons. LTC is loosing its momentum as well as some other quite strong alts. Monero in opposite is getting more and more attention. So it's easy to assume that probably some of the same figures will try to make use of Monero to achieve similar goals and will catalyze its internal ignition with much stronger long time potential based on its real benefits.

Thank you for your data mining. That pattern jibes with what I've seen in the gold part of the stock market: when gold's well down the bull track, the major producers go up, the juniors go up a lot, and the few exploration-level penny stocks that capture the punters' excitement explode.

Same on the downside, too. '11-'12 saw the majors getting whacked, the juniors getting whomped, and all-out carnage in the exploration-penny subsector.

I'm not kidding about the last. The pennies were hit so hard, the Venture Stock Exchange had to officially suspend a rule that prohibits secondary offerings by its listees whose stock price is below five cents. Yes, five cents.

Had the Venture board not done so, a lot of viable exploration micros would have had to hire bankruptcy lawyers. I'm quite serious about this.  

Theoretically, if 51% of forging power would be sent to forge on an alternative chain, just like in PoW currencies, where 51% of the hash rate of one entity can overcome other chains. However, in NXT no single entity owns 51% and if this happened, it would be a combined decision of many forgers (like in voting) or distributed consensus.

The hacker at the moment controls ~4.6% of the hash rate, correct (he sent 5m back to bter before he disappeared, maybe he'll send more later). There are plans in the NXT community to notify all exchanges not to accept funds from that address, however that may not work in practise. He can sell and depress price of NXT for some time, but can't destroy NXT with this. If you're looking for bargain prices of NXT, get some bitcoins ready soon.

amen

Thank you for your data mining. That pattern jibes with what I've seen in the gold part of the stock market: when gold's well down the bull track, the major producers go up, the juniors go up a lot, and the few exploration-level penny stocks that capture the punters' excitement explode.

Same on the downside, too. '11-'12 saw the majors getting whacked, the juniors getting whomped, and all-out carnage in the exploration-penny subsector.

I'm not kidding about the last. The pennies were hit so hard, the Venture Stock Exchange had to officially suspend a rule that prohibits secondary offerings by its listees whose stock price is below five cents. Yes, five cents.

Had the Venture board not done so, a lot of viable exploration micros would have had to hire bankruptcy lawyers. I'm quite serious about this.   

the comparison is marketcaps. ltc has 6.5 times the number of coins now.

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Tell us more about Monero, please. I already got 3-4 times more XMR than BTC (in units, not in actual value), and would like to understand it better. Seems awesome on the surface, but will it ever grow beyond the current state? I am willing to risk a bit more on it, as it sounds quite appealing.

No - we've discussed this on a number of occasions, and it's truly a non-issue until someone can prove to us that it is. The amount of hot air around this issue shows how poorly it's understood.

The first thing to remember is that all cryptocurrencies with "mixing" and other fluff in a bid for "anonymity" will end up with bloat. "But they can prune their blockchain!", I hear you say. Except that Bitcoin doesn't currently have the code in place to prune its blockchain or work off a pruned blockchain, and you can bet that some random altcoin developer doesn't have the technical chops to do this.

Consider, too, why this isn't "the biggest issue" for Bitcoin. Does Bitcoin's 20gb blockchain hamper adoption? No, because mostly everyone uses lightweight clients or web wallets.

The reality is that bandwidth and disk capacity is ever advancing, and there is little reason to think that Monero has a major issue if its blockchain ends up matching Bitcoin's and hits 110gb in 5 year's time. That having been said, there are definitely ways to trim on-disk usage, and we will look at doing this as time goes on. For the foreseeable future, though, this is a much lower priority than most things.

This is nonsense.  Litecoin is a BTC fork; Monero isn't.  Monero is for private transactions, Litecoin for public.  Their use cases don't have much overlap.  Maybe you just meant "replace" in terms of 2nd position by market cap.

Monero competes with Bitcoin in terms of a heavy footprint vs robust features trade-off.  Litecoin competes with Cryptonite, for the daily use role of a Visa-killer.

BTC and XMR blockchain space is like gold and naturally commands higher transaction fees than more scalable and convenient complements.

XMR shows the most potential to be a BTC killer.
XCN shows the most potential to be a LTC killer.

That's why I hlod plenty of both!   

Yes - as it stands it's definitely too large for consumer machines. The thing is, even something like mini-blockchain is only a temporary fix, as any cryptocurrency that scales up to meet massive global demand will find that home Internet connections (even in 5-10 years time) will simply not have the low-latency and speed required to maintain a full node. I remain unconvinced that there exists a better solution for "Visa/Mastercard scale" than off-chain transactions that are settled back on the main chain on-demand or periodically. A company like PayPal or Google could ostensibly operate something like this, although it's not inconceivable for Visa or Mastercard themselves to provide this.

Once again, people also said and still same the same things about Bitcoin.  And look how wrong they have been!

Given the HUGE cheesy coin mixer advert in your sig, I'm not surprised you wish XMR would go away.

Because if you understood ring signatures you'd realize your silly mixer honey pot only provides a false sense of security, unlike Monero's genuine privacy.  

whois bitmixer.io

Domain : bitmixer.io
Status : Live
Expiry : 2014-09-20

NS 1   : edna.ns.cloudflare.com
NS 2   : jake.ns.cloudflare.com

Owner  : Alex Bitshe
Owner  : Bitmixer
Owner  : Pb 1034 Sentrum
Owner  : Oslo
Owner  : NO

With the price moving sideways for so long, how long before the trendline is falsified? At some point, we'll have to conclude that an exponential model no longer applies, won't we? What if the vertical part of the S-curve already happened (in 2013) and we are now in a slow-growth phase approaching saturation?

I'm hodling, but for the first time in a long time I wonder whether bitcoin will ever have mass appeal. Will it be like Linux--fascinating to geeks but a bit too complicated for ordinary folk to adopt?

Where can i see this number? Your subreddit is empty and topics on this forum is not so popular. Can you give us some proofs?

Monero devs have recently published the download stats for the last weeks, and these support markedly higher adoption than the previous consensus estimate of 8,000.

I have been doing the downloads vs. users analysis with Bitcoin in the past, and found a rough estimate that adoption is 1/3 of the downloads of a mandatory update. (I don't know where the 2/3 go but this is what the data has suggested in the past ).

So if we take the blockchain bootstrap downloads, the total number of users should be around 14,000.

For client downloads, we are talking perhaps about 17,500 / 6 new users in 3 weeks, which would be 3,000. (15,000 downloads + 2,500 compiled, divided by 3 and further divided by 2 because some of them just go to existing users anyway).

Then there is the change in the exchange accounts that do not have outside wallet at all. This is probably not large, because 3 weeks have been a general downtrend. But I'd still estimate that it has gone up a little because there's more exchanges now. Like 500-1,000.

All in all, my very rough calculation (method 1) gives 14,000, and (method 2) gives 8000 + 3000 + 500 = 11,500.


A very rough average of these methods is 12,500 current owners.

- Since the last calculation in 2014-7-17, the number has grown by 4,500 (56%).
 
- The internal growth rate has been 2.26% during the period, compared to 5.45% all-time-average of XMR (and 0.6% of BTC since 2010-1-1)

- Since the BTC/XMR has been in a decline during this period, the average stash has gone from 267 XMR to 207 XMR, and its BTC equivalent value from BTC1.35 to BTC0.78. Both have been in a secular downtrend and the recent figures are all-time-lows.

- BTC0.78 is only $450, and declining. This is at odds with Metcalfe's Law that says that the average goes up when adoption goes up.

- Inflation is 21,8kXMR == BTC82. Growth of userbase is 275/day. If we assume that each new user buys for $200 (BTC0.35), the new users will extinguish 118% of the supply. Yes, it has already been the case for 3 weeks that new users buy more than the whole mining output.

- In 30 days, given current growth of userbase (2.26%/day), and decline of inflation (-0.19%/day), the new buying will account for 244% of the supply. This is in only 30 days - the situation will be more out-of-sync when more time passes.

- That all newcomers get their coins + the price has even been in a downtrend, is only possible because of existing owners net selling. Since I know quite a lot of existing owners that have been net buyers, the rest of the pack has to have been selling with both hands to account for both the newcomers and the accumulating whales. (As per my convention, it does not matter who the whales are and if they have bought or mined, and with what equipment - if they do not sell 100%, they are accumulating, and withholding coins from the market, indirectly causing the speculators to sell more).

- When I wrote my last speculation update hardly more than 24 hours ago spelling continuing capitulation, I did not have the access to the information that Monero adoption is actually growing in the last weeks despite the downtrend in price. These numbers really made it! If Monero had 8000 users then and the growth for 1 more year was 0.6% per day, similar to bitcoin, it would have 70,000 users. But with 2.26% growth...................29 million users. This might be a good investment or hedge with some of your bitcoin. At least Bitcoinworld people can always do it in 5 minutes and no ID. This is not to be underestimated.

- I mean, for me there is not much of a difference if a coin has 50% more or less users now. But if it has 300 times more users in one year, it is probably at least 10 times more valuable right now than the current trading range we are in.



To compile and process this information takes a lot of time and I am not getting paid, neither I mind, since I would have done it anyway for my own purposes. I see the conclusions from the nice tables and graphs from my screen. But you don't. The significance of the things presented here is easily missed without seeing the graphs. That is however too much to ask from me. There is an initiative that I might be teamworking with somebody who polishes my important posts and embellishes them with pics. If this sounds valuable to you, chime in.