Inflation kill that coin, so obviously. The price fell 75% since the discussions about emission curve. So if inflation was the issue, it would mean the curve shall be four times slower just to accomodate. I don't believe the "emission curve" argument matters at this level of depreciation. Monero is long term and trading is short term. Simple as that. In fact, when XMR was at 0.004, the emission in USD terms was about $60,000 per day. Now it is <$6,000. Who has an ear, let him hear. The vote for the emission in MEW is coming these days, but we have already achieved a consensus with the largest stakeholders, and the core team, that the emission curve will not be changed. The emission debate was never about the current price, it was about the future prospects and whether the fast-ish emission is undesirable for mass adoption or not. There was no unanimosity on this issue that is anyway speculative, so making a random change to the emission curve was deemed more scammy than beneficial. The emission in USD terms is so low that even one person starting to buy XMR can turn the tide for the price; the lack of this means that the new emission dumping presses the price even lower. As I see it. It also sets the stage for a sudden and violent melt-up as the bears are getting really complacent and piggy. It has happened before on more than one occasion with other alt-coins. LTC and NMC among others come to mind. The market psychology here is no different from that of an over extended bull market that ends with a sudden and violent crash. |
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Actually no. Coins.ph is going about this the right way. They need to focus on the market where where the money is sent to, in this case the Philippines. Those in the United States, Canada or other first world countries who wish to send money can easy figure out on their own how to get XBT. This should not be the concern of the provider in the Philippines, who should only then have to deal with regulations in the Philippines.
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Would companies be crazy to allow one to borrow bitcoin and settle any outstanding balances at the end of the month?
No thanks. Shorting XBT is a prescription for bankruptcy. Just think someone who borrowed say 2000 USD on their XBT credit card for Christmas presents in 2011 and made net payments equal to the interest. Edit: Why not go for broke and issue a credit card denominated in LTC, XMR or some other alt-coin in a protracted bear market. I mean what could possibly go wrong the bear market will never end right? |
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My overall approach has been to short u.s. equities, rolling gains into xmr via btc. The short gains part is now locked in. It looks like a very good time to roll. I have abandoned hope of 00085.
I honestly do not know if we will see 0.00085 or not. What I do know is that I would not want to get caught short XMR in this market. This can get really ugly really fast. |
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In any case I agree this should be fully specified soon. There is no reason to wait any longer.
+(2 64-1) |
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Not dominant to the total supply is what I meant. The "roughly 86%" figure will still be correct after 7 years and even after 10 or arguably 20.
This kind of argument is best dealt with by actually running the simulations. Which is why defining the parameters clearly and early is so important to the markets. Now with a 1% tail emission the 4 year money supply will be approximately 64% of the 20 year money supply. This is a far cry from "roughly 86%" of a now irrelevant number. Now please do not get me wrong here. The core team has made the correct call on whole main and tail emission question. The OP simply does not reflect the reality of that decision. |
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... - PoW algorithm: CryptoNight [1]
- Max supply: ~18.4 million [2]
- Block reward: Smoothly varying [3]
- Block time: 60 seconds
- Difficulty: Retargets at every block
[1] CPU + GPU mining (about 1:1 performance for now). Memory-bound by design using AES encryption and several SHA-3 candidates. [2] Actual number of atomic units is M = 2 64 - 1. A minimum subsidy may be implemented in the future with <1% annual inflation to preserve mining incentives. [3] Uses a recurrence relation. Block reward = (M - A) * 2 -20 * 10 -12, where A = current circulation. Roughly 86% mined in 4 years (see graph). ... I suspect that one of the reasons for current market behaviour is that the market simply cannot reconcile "Max supply: ~18.4 million" and "Roughly 86% mined in 4 years" with a tail emission. After all 14% of infinity is still infinity and infinity is >> 18.4 million. Making the OP actually reflect the consensus reached by the core team will go a long way toward calming the market jitters. Furthermore the sooner the tail emission amount is set the better. These statements basically make sense, even interpreted in light of infinite supply. The actual number has a footnote after it. Follow the footnote and you see the minimum inflationary subsidy (at least the possibility of it). The supply will only grow very slowly once the minimum reward is reached so "roughly 86%" might be interpreted as ~86% of the amount that will exist in the near future (a decade or two). The base supply target is the dominant short term effect, and the inflation only becomes dominant beyond 10-20 years (and even then slowly). On a 1% tail emission the tail emission becomes dominant after approximately 7 years. |
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I suspect that one of the reasons for current market behaviour is that the market simply cannot reconcile "Max supply: ~18.4 million" and "Roughly 86% mined in 4 years" with a tail emission. After all 14% of infinity is still infinity and infinity is >> 18.4 million. Making the OP actually reflect the consensus reached by the core team will go a long way toward calming the market jitters. Furthermore the sooner the tail emission amount is set the better.
Remember that the OP reflects the current status of the code. Once the tail emission is set and committed to master the OP will be updated to reflect that:) Yes the current status of the code is no tail emission. It is also my understanding that the amount of the tail emission (0.3 XMR or 0.1 XMR etc.) has not being decided and this needs to happen before any coding can begin. This issue is not trivial because it deals with a fundamental economic change. There is also the question that if this is not acted on promptly there is a very good change it could not happen at all. Consider is the 1MB block limit in Bitcoin. It was dropped to 1MB in 2010 by Satoshi to protect Bitcoin from denial of service attacks. Now four years later Gavin is trying to undo this change and is facing stiff opposition from the Bitcoin community. In both cases we are dealing with a hard fork. The key lesson here is that a hard fork with clear economic implications becomes way harder as the coin matures and may in fact become impossible. It was easy for Satoshi back in 2010, it may become impossible for Gavin in 2015. Time is simply running out. The current situation leads and has lead to all sort of speculation and uncertainty. For example a speculator may hoard XMR betting that core team may not be able to implement the tail emission hard fork because they have left it for too long, effectively defeating the economic argument for the tail emission. If the speculator is wrong and dumps all of a sudden then this leads to wild price movements. Then there is the history over the last few months of the debate regarding the emission change for the main curve. The main argument was that the current emission curve would lead to an unfair "community premine". This argument of course fall flat if there is a tail emission. In fact I would argue that if the tail emission had been clear from the outset the whole emission curve discussion would either never had happened or stopped cold early on. We can go along way here by clearly identifying in the OP: 1) The current state of the code 2) What is being planned. (With a clear disclaimer that there is no guarantee of 2 given the nature of a POW coin) |
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Maybe I must put it differently: if genuine demand for Bitcoin by "ordinary" people (ie. not speculators) was the sole price driver, what would Bitcoin's price be? $1 - $3 maybe? (I have no idea, I'm thumb-sucking here) Either way, the gap between that and the current price means that speculators are propping the balance of the price up. What we are hoping to achieve with Monero (in particular with the infinite tail emission) is to reduce that gap so that the price of Monero in the far future more closely reflects the actual demand than any artificial demand. Who knows if we're on the right path or not, but I do sincerely believe it's a better path than just cloning Bitcoin;)
You're right. Bitcoin's market cap without speculation is probably not much. But I don't think that infinite tail emission changes this in XMR at all. Predictable changes in supply will constantly be factored into speculation. DOGE's value went down during halvings. People knew the changes in supply were coming. The majority of XMR's value will always be based on speculation. It's inescapable, sorry to say. Just as the price of gold is mostly because of hoarding and speculating. It's "utility only" (electronics and jewelry lets say) value is so much lower. I enjoy this debate, and obviously I don't know the future - maybe the decisions we've made are unsubstantiated right now, and maybe they're wrong, so of course I stand to be completely wrong and only find out in future:-P That said, I do think infinite tail emission changes things substantially - once we hit minsubsidy it makes trading based on a microcosmic timeline (ie. demand for the Monero that is emitted over, say, a month) vs. the view a speculator would take of a deflationary currency where supply is fixed. You, for instance, indicated you want to own "0.1% of all XMR". Tail emission makes this a moving target - you'd only ever be able to fulfil that for a snapshot in time (ie. "of all XMR currently emitted"). I'm also not arguing that there will be no speculation, clearly that's never going to be the case. However, I do think that most speculators don't have a very high risk tolerance, and thus there will be enough of a fundamental difference (vis-à-vis Monero's slightly inflationary nature when contrasted with Bitcoin's deflationary nature) that there will be less "hoarding" for the sole purpose of becoming overnight millionaires. The decisions that core team have made here are fundamentally sound. In fact the tail emission idea makes XMR far more closer to gold than XBT will ever be. That is not the issue. The real problem here is that these decisions are not being communicated in a clear and concise manner so that proper due diligence can be made. Try to reconcile the above post with the following from the OP. ... - PoW algorithm: CryptoNight [1]
- Max supply: ~18.4 million [2]
- Block reward: Smoothly varying [3]
- Block time: 60 seconds
- Difficulty: Retargets at every block
[1] CPU + GPU mining (about 1:1 performance for now). Memory-bound by design using AES encryption and several SHA-3 candidates. [2] Actual number of atomic units is M = 2 64 - 1. A minimum subsidy may be implemented in the future with <1% annual inflation to preserve mining incentives. [3] Uses a recurrence relation. Block reward = (M - A) * 2 -20 * 10 -12, where A = current circulation. Roughly 86% mined in 4 years (see graph). ... I suspect that one of the reasons for current market behaviour is that the market simply cannot reconcile "Max supply: ~18.4 million" and "Roughly 86% mined in 4 years" with a tail emission. After all 14% of infinity is still infinity and infinity is >> 18.4 million. Making the OP actually reflect the consensus reached by the core team will go a long way toward calming the market jitters. Furthermore the sooner the tail emission amount is set the better. |
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Anyone foolish and/or desperate enough to sell at 0011 is foolish and/or desperate enough to sell at 0010. We have an existence proof now. "Lunatic fringe, I know you're out there."
I am hoping for 00085 to touch. Reducing my buy rate. Stocking up on bitcoin below 340usd and waiting for more ask liquidity in XMR.
These plateaus usually break down by the time they are a week old. If BTC goes lower, XMR is likely to go lower as well, making the effective leverage on the future all the greater.
Patience and discipline.
Yep, ready to buy at 80k sat  While it may be possible that XMR may reach 80k sat or lower, making selling for 111k sat and buying for 80k a profitable trade there is an old saying in the markets that is very appropriate here. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered http://wiki.fool.com/Bulls_make_money,_bears_make_money,_pigs_get_slaughtered. One should also keep in mind that there are typically two sub species of pigs in the markets. Bull pigs (buy high, hope to sell higher) and bear pigs (sell low, hope to buy lower) and both get slaughtered. This time of the year another sub spices of pig emerges known as the tax pig. The tax pig sells low (or buys high) with the primary objective of lowering the tax payable to some state. The tax pig then waits a prescribed amount of time (this depends on the tax legislation of the target state) and then hopes to buy back lower at the same price or even slightly above (sell higher, at the same price or even slightly below). The tax pig in this process first pushes the bear pig (or the bull pig) to the slaughter and then also gets slaughtered. |
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does the new wallet still require 64-bit system?
Yea, because it still uses simplewallet, it's really just a wrapper. If someone could compile a 32 bit version of simplewallet for windows though, then it would work (I'm not sure if the daemon is the limiting factor keeping things 64-bit at the moment, but I think it is). Last week I was trying to compile a 32-bits linux version of the daemon and the wallet. I had to tweak the code a little bit for the compilation to go through and complete without complains. But after that I got a seg fault at execution. I checked for bitmonerod, gdb tells me it fails on an AES instruction (called from slowhash() if I remember well). Pretty sure it's an issue with a memory alignement that is not as assumed on 32-bits systems. Didn't check further after that, and didn't check where was the simplewallet error (it fails on wallet creation, after asking for the language) but I presume it is the same origin. Right now one needs PAE https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physical_Address_Extension to run Monero on 32 bit systems making them effectively 36 bit. This is because Monero needs to address more than 4GB of memory (bitmonerod takes approximately 4.8GB on 64bit Kubuntu). This can work on GNU/Linux. On 32 bit Windows however, Microsoft cripples the desktop versions to 4GB RAM (that is the nature of a propriety OS) so even though they support PAE it still will not work. It is possible to enable PAE on certain 32 bit versions of Windows Server (The advance datacenter versions of Windows server 2000 or 2003 for example) and theoretically make this work. Here are the memory limits on various versions of Windows. msdn.microsoft.com/en-ca/library/windows/desktop/aa366778(v=vs.85).aspx One should keep in mind that anything under 64GB for 32 bit version is a deliberate crippling in order to sell more expensive licenses and not a real technical limitation. Once the database is complete and tested then it should be possible to run Monero on 32bit windows with its much lower memory availability. |
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Under 18's have little money and what little money they have is usually spent on frivolous bullshit.
If they need to spend money online they can always borrow mom or dads credit card
It's a complete non-factor. Besides you'd be surprised how many men 18-40 are playing games on xbox.
It is huge. In many cases under 18's have way more disposable income than adults in their 20's since they are both living at home and working part time. As a baby boomer I come from a generation where a 17 year old did not have to get mom's or dad's permission to spend the money he or she had earned. Furthermore my parents did not use credit cards. For the most part it still was a much saner cash / bearer instrument society. By the way it is not just the under 18 crowd. Who has not waited in line while a senior citizen navigates a chip and pin terminal at the checkout. Chip and pin has to be one of the most asinine methods of payment ever devised. Cash is way more efficient. XBT and other crypto currencies actually turn back the clock to a much saner time of bearer instruments and push rather than pull transactions. The way that commerce has been transacted for millennia. |
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This OP completely ignores the reason why a company that sells digital products and services online would use Bitcoin. It simply expands the market to those who do not have credit cards, debit cards, bank accounts etc. This is the vast majority of the world's population. Microsoft being a US company would start accepting Bitcoin in its home market, but rest assured the real opportunity here is in the international markets. As for the impact on the price it is simple. A customer wishing to purchase a Microsoft product or service needs to first purchase XBT hold XBT for some time (even if it is only an hour or so) before purchasing the product or service from Microsoft. Only then will Microsoft have a chance to sell the XBT. Given the size of Microsoft if even a small fraction of its customers use XBT for purchases, this small time the XBT are held alone will cause the XBT/USD rate to skyrocket. There no need for the customer or Microsoft to hoard any XBT.
I have seen a person in Canada spend 50 CAD on a prepaid credit card in order to purchase a 25 CAD service online. Why because one cannot use cash online. This is the real market for crypto currency including XBT. It is not the person with an 800 FICO score collecting free travel by using her credit card.
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On the linear scale the downward trendline had been broken on the log scale the downward trendline is still intact as the curve above shows.
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My expectation is that when BTC sees a hype ramp, XMR will follow. XMR will gain less cap and more % than BTC, both bottom to peak and bottom to post-cycle plateau. Rinse, repeat.
The leveraged play on XBT during a XBT/USD boom. There is a lot of evidence supporting this from past XBT/USD booms with LTC, NMC etc. |
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That is cool! How did you get your the saddam.moneroaddress.org alias you reference in your sig? Did you have to register the domain name moneroaddress.org yourself? Does this mean that to get our own openalias to use with Monero, we have to find domain name registrars that allow anonymous registration?
I am not amused. Or simply use Namecoin (NMC), http://namecoin.info/, to register a .bit domain. There is no need to use the ICANN/US Gov. root. Of course all of this creates a business opportunity for selling .bit, Namecoin, registrations for XMR. |
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I voted for Create a Jr. Member/ Newbie ANN subsection.
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if the server is down, is there any way to get the keys working with simplewallet?
Yes it uses the same keys. Is this a new development. I asked the question of Fluffypony and he said no a week ago: There was a bug but its fixed in github now and should be in the upcoming binaries. This is actually very significant since it directly impacts making MyMonero.com trust less. |
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...
Monero has gone out of it's way to screw investors short term speculators. A revolutionary standard for arrogance.
(1) No GUI wallet.
(2) More lost coins than you can imagine due to (1) and exchange ID requirement.
(3) Devs constantly talk down price by saying it's irrelevant.
(4) Clown shows like reptilia back on the street shilling for his One and Only True Love.
Enough. Fuck this shit.
Replace investors with short term speculators and I may actually agree. An investor as opposed to a short term speculator purchasing XMR at 0.01 XBT a few months back, who holds for a few years, could easily end up in the same position as an investor purchasing XBT in June 2011 at 30 USD, who also held for a few years. My take is the approach taken by the devs of focusing on the long term and fundamentals, makes XMR very attractive to investors, but equally very dangerous to short term speculators. |
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