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1201  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis & other financial markets (bitcoinbullbear.com) on: January 05, 2012, 09:34:18 PM
There's a hell of a lot buying pressure there Shocked
Eventually, it will crack.  It's strange, really... there's no wall or anything.  Just resistance.

I think it is bitcoinica - it tends to accumulate the pressure until there is a big boom.
1202  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis & other financial markets (bitcoinbullbear.com) on: January 05, 2012, 09:16:59 PM
Thanks - here is the corrected link:



1203  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis & other financial markets (bitcoinbullbear.com) on: January 05, 2012, 09:07:52 PM
My amateur technical analysis (while waiting for the *real one* Smiley:


1204  Economy / Speculation / Re: I pussied out on: January 05, 2012, 08:01:45 PM
Got scared and sold at 5.8ish, have I made a mistake? in any case I've profited for the day, and I need to sleep now (If possible I never sleep with BTC in my pocket, I could wake up with dirt for money)

Long time since i've seen 5am sober. zzzzzz

Have you been around in the spring last year - or did you start with bitcoin in the autumn?

I've been here since spring yes, I was up to 150% of my initial investment, then i hit a low of about 40%, im back up to 75%... and im so very weary now of the volitility of this market.

but it looks like the price has been fairly stable, i hope i dont miss the next rally  Grin


Hmm I seriously started in April - and I was something like 1000% up when I sold in the autumn (it could be 2000% if I sold at the right moment - but maxing out is rarely reasonable).  I am now again up quite a bit since I bought in December.
1205  Economy / Speculation / Re: $7 today?!! on: January 05, 2012, 03:28:25 PM
Hmm - the number of threads like this is growing.  Maybe people are now fully in BTC?
1206  Economy / Speculation / Re: time to panic ? volume is low or time to rally on: January 05, 2012, 01:31:06 PM
Whats there religion got to do with it?

That comment was not about religion - but about the country Israel and the fact that more than $1 billion is sent annually there (by whatever current money sending systems) - this is a huge market for bitcoin if you think bitcoin is in this business.
1207  Economy / Speculation / Re: I pussied out on: January 05, 2012, 05:57:14 AM
Got scared and sold at 5.8ish, have I made a mistake? in any case I've profited for the day, and I need to sleep now (If possible I never sleep with BTC in my pocket, I could wake up with dirt for money)

Long time since i've seen 5am sober. zzzzzz

Have you been around in the spring last year - or did you start with bitcoin in the autumn?
1208  Economy / Speculation / Re: Making money on: December 31, 2011, 10:09:28 AM
off all you fools



see you guys down in the low 3's

This is getting strenuous.
1209  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who's bot? 0.0123 trades on: December 31, 2011, 09:28:27 AM
Maybe it is a sign that more sophisticated traders are entering the market?
1210  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning to the bulls... on: December 31, 2011, 09:03:27 AM
...
From the data above, you can see that over the past 10 days there has been a net selling activity of $442,034, yet somehow the price has stayed at roughly the same level. There has not been one single day where the buy volume in dollars has exceeded the selling volume in dollars.

To me, this is a stark indication of profit taking. In addition, there is significant market manipulation going on keeping the price artificially afloat in order to take more and more money from buyers. Despite all the selling, it was all followed by low volume rebuys occurring right after the sales in order for the big players to 'cover their tracks' if you will.
...
That's to be expected after such a huge rally, it is also natural that it took time - because people did not know when the rally stopped.  But it is about to change - too many threads trying to talk the price down with a very small effect.
1211  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning: bubble #2 might be forming on: December 31, 2011, 08:30:40 AM
Non techie investors. Love it. Who else but a geek would involve themselves with bitcoin, even now?
Even many of us 'smart' folk still are failing to understand what we have created, so what hope is there for the meatheads?
It's the same people with the same money and the same coins (plus some new ones that have yet to hit the markets).

The cryptographic technicalities, once they are vetted sound are not that important.  I would argue that they cryptography is more or less vetted now - during the first bubble computer geeks had enough incentives to check this.  Now it is time to check the economy of bitcoin - and computer geeks are rarely experts in this area.
1212  Economy / Speculation / Re: Price is going up again?? on: December 30, 2011, 11:29:22 AM
The only unknown here is how much these people trying to control the price can control the price. Bitcoin is limited enough for there to be much control of it. Even gold is said to be easily manipulated. I mean many things are manipulated, just think diamonds. When you can create a shortage, you can control. And bitcoin is limited enough for this to happen.

I understand what you are saying, but with Bitcoin all the information is there for those who care to see it. So you are wealthy and can buy 1,000,000 Bitcoins. You make waves when you enter and exit the market. As you buy, you will increase the price. As you sell, you will decrease the price. Plus there are other people in the market. If someone tries to corner the market, good for them, who cares? Sell your coins when you think they are overpriced and buy them back when you think they are under priced. To be a manipulator, one is faced with the same risks that anyone who plays the market faces. What happens when there are two large players trying to make money off the other?

We know how many Bitcoins exist. You can compare them to diamonds and say they are manipulated, but it's a poor comparison. The amount of diamonds in existence can be concealed by the people mining them. It just doesn't work that way with Bitcoin. Even gold doesn't have the transparency of Bitcoin. Plus I would say gold is a fairly regulated market. Regulations themselves are a form of control.

So what is the problem? If you don't like how someone is influencing the market, stop playing by their rules. For someone to manipulate the market, there has to be a group of manipulated that are playing along.

Until Bitcoin is 40 times as popular as it is now, it will be fairly easy to influence the price. Even then, it will still be able to be influenced.

I guess what I'm asking is why do you care? Are you trying to use Bitcoin as a medium of exchange? Don't hold Bitcoin. Or are you trying to make money off Bitcoin? In that case, what is the difference between you and a manipulator, other than scale? Or you want Bitcoin to be seen as something other than a toy for speculators? Then work towards creating a product or service that is in huge demand and only accept Bitcoin as payment.



I see - so you are trying to manipulate the market down by saying that there are people manipulating it up!
1213  Economy / Speculation / Re: Major correction to rally coming... on: December 30, 2011, 09:03:24 AM
That his customers were long was disclosed by Zhoutong last night after bitcoinica ran out of USD.  I for one am boycotting Bitcoinica until they move away from fractional reserve and hold assets to back every position.  Regarding disclosure, I would prefer the long vs. short balance updated in real time on the site, but I will not boycott for that if they solve the backing issue.  With realtime long/short balance users would know if they were taking a position that had a large risk of being squeezed.

Why do you think they do fractional reserve?  Zhoutong has denied this many times - is he lying?  As to the USD shortage - this is easily explained without any conspiracy - when people want to go long on Bitcoinica, Bitcoinica needs to buy BTC on MtGox with their USD funds and those funds are not unlimited - so when they are drained they refuse to let people go long.  This is a result of them not wanting to have uncovered positions - quite the opposite of what you are suggesting.

By they way I hate Bitcoinica for the volatility it produces.
1214  Economy / Speculation / UK plans for capital controls in case of Euro breakdown (The Telegraph) on: December 30, 2011, 06:48:37 AM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8976204/Treasury-plans-for-euro-failure.html :

The Treasury is working on contingency plans for the disintegration of the single currency that include capital controls.
The preparations are being made only for a worst-case scenario and would run alongside similar limited capital controls across Europe, imposed to reduce the economic fall-out of a break-up and to ease the transition to new currencies.
Officials fear that if one member state left the euro, investors in both that country and other vulnerable eurozone nations would transfer their funds to safe havens abroad. Capital flight from weak euro nations to the UK would drive up sterling, dealing a devastating blow to the Government’s plans to rebalance the economy towards exports.

1215  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why do people sell at 15 when the price could rebound to 30? on: December 24, 2011, 11:36:33 AM
I'm just trying to understand the mentality.
You see - now that it is really going to rebound to 30 I can buy 4 times as much BTC for the USD I got from selling at 15.
1216  Economy / Speculation / Re: Holidays slump on: December 24, 2011, 08:30:08 AM
So it seems that so many investors waited for the holiday slump that their bids cumulated into a critical mass.  But will the slump arrive?  I think it is still a possibility - after the investors spent the surplus money in the rally.
What is your sample size for this "Holiday Slump" effect?
I don't remember anything specific - but on the way up it was quite common that on weekends and bank holidays there were slumps - because no new money was coming in.  On the way down this effect disappeared - but now we are back on an up trend aren't we?

With Dwolla Instant that effect will be lessened.

Dwolla Instant is a non-issue. They have already been overwhelmed and had to cut the service off. Another amateur move by dwolla, but did anyone see giving away free money as going well?

Regarding the slump...what slump? Bitcoin is double the price of last month.
What I had in mind already happened when it dropped from 4 to 3.5, it is now back to 3.9 so it might seem inconsequential - but if someone wanted to buy cheap - then he had the occasion.
1217  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you think of my oscillator? on: December 23, 2011, 05:26:57 PM
How does that work and why is it called oscillator?
I'm using 'oscillator' in the sense that it produces a signal that alternates above and below a center line.

The way it works:
the main thing to look at are the bars. You can think of the bars as forming mountains, a set above zero and a set below zero. from a positive peak to a negative peak (or positive valley for weaker movements) indicates a wave down. they are colored green for a positive slope, red for a neg. slope to help identify peaks and valleys.

the breakout bands (dark green) help identify strong movements.

the pullback lines are like how far 'down' the next valley should be from the peak to indicate a coming strong movement.

Did I answer your question well?
Hmm - maybe you could write a formula in mathematical notation or something?
1218  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you think of my oscillator? on: December 23, 2011, 02:40:24 PM
How does that work and why is it called oscillator?
1219  Economy / Speculation / Re: Holidays slump on: December 23, 2011, 09:14:04 AM
Money doesn't disappear, it changes hands. Stop worrying so much about what other people are doing with their money and start worrying about what you're doing with yours.

Also, if you are so interested in how much money is coming in to Bitcoin, why not do something to get more money into it? Speculation = circle jerk of people who can't "do".

It is kind of dumb to 'do something' without thinking what you are doing and advising it here is simply trolling.  I predicted this slump and saved a lot of money in this way.
1220  Economy / Speculation / Re: This chart illustrates why this is III and not a 3-3-5 on: December 23, 2011, 06:15:41 AM
1. up Dec  1 - $3.14
2. dn Dec  4 - $2.63 (50% retrace)
3. up Dec 19 - $4.5
4. dn (pick your own retrace target) 50% would be =~$3.57
5. up ~$5.8+ target

Goes according to the plan!
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