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Isn't it the first time that the main poll answer is Down?
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I have a 1200% gain (all from buying coins - no mining at all). I have sold everything a few weeks ago, but I am still waiting for the real drop with some money on MtGox.
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They are trying to scare you out of the market..get you to sell at $9 thinking that it will go down to $5.
But after you sell, they will buy it, it will go up..then keep going up.
The worst is behind us.
said pot to kettle |
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The daily return of BTC for all miners based on the numbers of TH/s just fell from 7500 to 5875... if at every difficulty increase we see a similar drop out of miners eventually the number of people inject BTC into the market for USD/etc. will decrease and the price would have to increase. This is, of course, classical deflationary economics; the only thing that needs to stay the same is demand. As long as people are using it for things or there are price fluctuations, that's no problem at all.
Does anyone know the exact timing for the algorithm to adjust to the decrease of hashing power? Because it will adjust eventually and it will keep the number of BTC mined daily a constant. Otherwise this would mean that bitcoin transfers will take longer - i.e. the system would lose some of it's usefulness and that should make the price drop. |
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Have you normalized the prices against forex? The USD is certainly fluctuating all on its own.
I mostly used the Google exchange rates - sometimes I checked them against consumer exchange services - that is http://www.ukforex.co.uk/ and https://cinkciarz.pl/ - to know the actual price I could get, but the differences there were not significant. I also tried some arbitrage - but with simple moving money around the losses on withdrawing funds from Mtgox (with SEPA - more than 5%, nearly 10% in the case when I moved the money directly to PLN) nullified all gains. For me it looks like people are in fact withdrawing funds from Mtgox by moving bitcoins to other exchanges. |
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Who said it's random? ... depending on the current trend direction it would either be below or above the market.
yeah it's either boy or a girl random, same way prices go up or down random  If prices depend on the current trend direction - they are not random - and this is different from boy/girl births which are random. Your question has been perfectly answered - price lags because of low volume. Low volume means bigger volatility, so naturally other exchanges would have price jumping around mtgox average, depending on the current trend direction it would either be below or above the market.
Additional data - TradeHill does not visibly lag after mtgox in the way you describe. It fluctuates around the mtgox price but it has not been consistently below mtgox for a month despite the current trend direction. It does not seem to be simply about volatility. |
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Who said it's random?
It's the same reason smaller hospitals have more days on which only boys are born.
Isn't that hospital model about a random process? |
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It's the same reason smaller hospitals have more days on which only boys are born.
I don't agree - this is not random, the european markets (EUR, GBP and PLN, I did not follow ruble) all act in unisono. |
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During the last big rally in May and June the non-USD markets had higher prices than mtgox - now it is in reverse. Any speculations on this?
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It assumes 50% of the nodes (in numbers, not computation power) are honest? Wow... that makes Sybil attacks super-attractive.
Having a registration process that prevents someone registering more than 50% of the servers without central authority is neigh-to impossible. And adding a central authority destroys the whole idea IMO and is backwards.
Yeah - this is the weak point. What he proposes is that establishment of new servers requires consensus of all current servers, and later speculates that it will all depend on the initial set of servers - but indeed this is very sketchy. |
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Wow. I looked at the abstract. #3 took me back. A central authority? Really? Who would run it, The Fed? It is distributed. In fact what he proposes is that everyone can run one of the timestamping servers - the difference with bitcoin is only that such a server needs to be registered. The assumption is that more then 50% of these servers will be honest (similarly to bitcoin) - and the registration process needs to prevent the case where someone registers more then 50% of all servers. The registration is the weak point of the article - but I think it is doable. |
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It won't be long before the user and miner base goes beyond 30k. Also, the value of BTC will go much higher. If these two things don't happen, then bitcoin will become an expensive hobby or fail completely.
The cost of hashing needs to grow with the value of bitcoin - because the bigger value the bigger incentive to attack the system. The question is how much. As a startup currency bitcoin needs a business plan - an analysis of the system costs and benefits and a realistic plan for reaching a positive balance. Without such a plan the current $500K a month cost (this is a rough estimate - but the only one I have now) is rather extravagant. |
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I have been following Ripple for quite some time before bitcoin - I like the concept, but it might be a bit too complex for a mass adoption.
As to the cost of the bitcoin system - the computing power used for hashing will need to grow with the growth of the value stored in the system. The question is what are the coefficients, but I am rather pessimistic with this because it is a kind of arms race situation.
This is very different from the situation with gold and the role of the cost of digging new gold.
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The 'electricity bill' is voluntary. It's almost like short-circuiting a wall socket. Bitcoin would run fine on a couple dozen mining machines. We don't need 20 - 30k, except to prevent theoretical attacks on the block chain.
Have you just said that security of the bitcoin system is optional? |
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I would bet my money on a currency that would replace mining with something less wasteful. This probably cannot be fully decentralized. Bitcoin showed that the time for independent cryptography based currencies has came - but I am not comfortable with the rate at which bitcoin is spending money.
If bitcoin was not paying for itself, in terms of the services it is providing, value information transfers, storage, etc, then it would not be profitable. Money costs. (Gold digging, fiat confidence defending, etc) I am pretty sure that bitcoin is not paying for itself and it will not for a very long time. Silk Road transactions cannot support even the half a million dollars a month electricity bill (a very rough estimate - but the only one so far - see http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=28780.0) - what else there is to pay that bill? And this is now - what will be the cost of it when the security of the system will be much more important? |
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I would bet my money on a currency that would replace mining with something less wasteful. This probably cannot be fully decentralized. Bitcoin showed that the time for independent cryptography based currencies has came - but I am not comfortable with the rate at which bitcoin is spending money.
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Converted to a common denominator (Radeon 6990) the total hash rate equals about 28,000 of those GPUs.
In that scenario the total power usage of the entire network is 10,500,000 watts at any given moment
(There are very many diverse GPUs, CPUs and maybe even some ASICS the network too so that's just a very rough estimate)
Thanks! Continuing this rough estimate - if we take the price of MegaWattHour to be about $100 (from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) - that means about $1000 per hour. |
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Anyone seen some good estimates of the cost of sustaining the bitcoin system? That is mostly the cost of mining.
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It is probably impossible in a completely decentralized protocol - but maybe it is possible to have a clever compromise that would introduce a few super-nodes with [...]
You're totally missing the point. Care to explain that? |
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