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1122
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Economy / Speculation / Re: bitcoinica orders dont go to mtgox anymore ?
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on: January 19, 2012, 10:25:33 AM
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Let's be precise what they do can be interpreted as and action against customers, but it is not a bet - because they don't win if you lose (not counting their markup - but let's set this aside for the moment).
Also if you think about it - when MtGox is executing a sell order - while keeping your bitcoins on their accout - they are acting against you, don't they?
OK, it's not a bet, but their actions can have a negative impact on their customers. And if that is true, why do they do it? Just so another customer can open their position? Aha... they make money for each position opened. When MtGox executes a sell order, they are simply finding a buyer for my coins. They are acting for me, after all I'm trying to obtain fiat for my coins. If they don't give me the fiat in turn, well yeah, they would be acting against me. But I'm pretty sure in most cases you can withdraw your money from Gox. Edit: Ahh... I see what you mean. I misunderstood the Gox example. No, the person selling their coins is acting against me. Which is fine. That's a risk I take holding currency. It is the same case with Bitcoinica - it is the person buying that bets against you - Bitcoinica acts only as an intermediary. Just like MtGox it executes orders on behalf of traders. |
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1123
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Economy / Speculation / Re: bitcoinica orders dont go to mtgox anymore ?
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on: January 19, 2012, 10:07:20 AM
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They would only buy on MtGox if someone bought from them - in that sense they don't bet against you - their position is always neutral. That is if they are honest.
Why they do it doesn't concern me. The result is the same and it is most definitely not neutral. When they decide to match trades outside of Bitcoinica, they have an effect on the market. That effect on the market is either betting against or betting with their customers, depending on if Bitcoinica buys or sells. If I tell you to go buy 10,000 bitcoins at Gox for me, and you have a short position at Bitcoinica that would be liquidated with a 10,000 bitcoin purchase at Gox, are you going to buy those Bitcoins for me while leaving your short open. No, because you would be betting against yourself. It doesn't matter that I gave you the money to do it. So why does Bitcoinica bet against their customers when someone else tells them to do it? Let's be precise what they do can be interpreted as and action against customers, but it is not a bet - because they don't win if you lose (not counting their markup - but let's set this aside for the moment). Also if you think about it - when MtGox is executing a sell order - while keeping your bitcoins on their accout - they are acting against you, don't they? |
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1124
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Economy / Speculation / Re: bitcoinica orders dont go to mtgox anymore ?
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on: January 19, 2012, 09:32:30 AM
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You have it in reverse. When you short on Bitcoinica and they don't have a matching order they sell on MtGox (at least this is what everyone assumes they do). By the way, see also the definition of market maker: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_makerNo, you misunderstood me. I'll break it down. I open a short position on Bitcoinica. An hour later, Bitcoinica buys Bitcoins on Gox for whatever reason causes them to buy Bitcoins on Gox. They've just bet against me. Bitcoinica's buy on Gox hurt my short position on Bitcoinica, regardless of what caused them to do it! Sorry, they are an occasional market maker. I think they should either be a broker or a market maker, not both. They would only buy on MtGox if someone bought from them - in that sense they don't bet against you - their position is always neutral. That is if they are honest. |
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1125
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Economy / Speculation / Re: bitcoinica orders dont go to mtgox anymore ?
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on: January 19, 2012, 08:43:59 AM
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Bitcoinica trades 100%. There must be a counter party to every trade. The counter party can be someone at Mt. Gox or someone at Bitcoinica. The counter party is never Bitcoinica itself.
This is how every money changer works, basically.
Hmm... I've been thinking about this a lot. I still haven't figured it out yet. When you match orders on Bitcoinica, great you are a broker. This is good. When you match orders on Gox, you move the market, thus becoming a market maker. Therefor you bet against your customers who are holding the opposite position to your trade at Gox. I don't see any other way to look at it than betting against your customer. If I'm short and you buy Bitcoins on Gox, you've bet against me. Regardless of when I opened the short position. Even if that short position was matched internally. I think Bitcoinica would be much cooler if you only acted as a broker. I don't know if that is feasible or not. All the leveraging in the world wouldn't matter as long as you were only a broker. And you couldn't lose either. What am I missing? You have it in reverse. When you short on Bitcoinica and they don't have a matching order they sell on MtGox (at least this is what everyone assumes they do). By the way, see also the definition of market maker: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_maker |
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1127
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Economy / Speculation / Re: RALLY!
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on: January 18, 2012, 09:43:35 AM
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BULLS ARE WE GOING TO LET THEM BEAT US DOWN?
OR ARE WE FINALLY GOING TO COME TOGETHER AS ONE, IN UNITY.
TO TAKE BTC TO NEW HEIGHTS AND POSSIBILITY'S UNIMAGINABLE TO MANKIND.
LETS TAKE OUT $7 ONCE AND FOR ALL, AND LETS RALLY TOGETHER AS ONE ENTITY! TRIPLE DIGITS BTC HERE WE COME!!
RALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLYYYYYYYYY YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY! Wow! You made my day! When I thought it could not get any more weird. |
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1129
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Economy / Speculation / The timeline
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on: January 18, 2012, 08:27:21 AM
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What I remember - correct me if I am wrong. Dates in January 2012: 6th - The rally is stopped at 7.2 in a curiously even pattern. A small dip follows. 8th/9th - Rally is again stopped at 7.2. Asterisk at bitcoinica 'buy' button looks like the culprit ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57178.0). Another dip and subsequent rallies all stop when * appears at bitcoinica buy button. 11th - 16th - Sideways pattern, rallies always stop below 7.2. Asterisk hypothesis confirmed. 13th - S3052 sends a very positive weekly report but it did not overcome the bitcoinica asterisk 15th - 17th - Again price drops down slightly about 9pm UTC the drops start to be quite regular after 10pm most probably bitcoinica liquidations start cascading (there are little bids left on MtGox for these prices - so the liquidations move the price down and cause other liquidations), price drops to 4.65 price goes back to 6.4 and then oscillates in a triangle- someone starts buying when the triangle ends at 5.6, price breaks up and suddenly someone buys all the way to 6.95 (about 20K of BTC), forcing liquidation of many shorters in turn ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=59980.msg699115#msg699115) the price again goes down to 5.6 with huge volume and again is stopped by a buy out plus bid walls around 5.4 the price again oscilates in a down leaning triangle It is quite evident now - that: 1. The rally from 5 to 7 was overly leveraged 2. Someone with big money is using this as an opportunity to buy a lot |
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1132
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Economy / Speculation / Re: It's ping-pong time again
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on: January 17, 2012, 08:13:33 PM
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If I may take a guess: you're late.
Had a look at the order book lately? If those sells were not from Bitcoinica, the instability has just gone from serious to critical.
I've bought at 6.422 and slowly sold most between 6.5 and 6.6 causing it to dip even further. Unfortunately I did not catch it this time, maybe I'll try to push it lower again with the rest of my BTC. This ping pong could be profitable. |
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1133
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Economy / Speculation / Re: How long this correction will take?
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on: January 17, 2012, 06:10:19 PM
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Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage
My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.
Lol, Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people..  It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard.. Well, yes, yes it did. Proudhon and his NEW maths... I'm serious. Didn't the market crash in June? Am I missing something? I know its hard, but try the real world math.. Take the first day of june btc to usd price... then look at the last day of june btc price.. Where is the crash ? are you refering to the correction from the peek ? Proudhon is back! and SHORT! Correction of 1/3 of the value - in current scale that would be correction to 5. |
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1134
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Economy / Speculation / Re: RALLY!
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on: January 17, 2012, 11:33:25 AM
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Price is moving very sneaky today. Breaking $7 ninja style?  Must be the Amazon effect. |
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1135
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Economy / Speculation / How long this correction will take?
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on: January 17, 2012, 09:48:46 AM
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I know many expect a break out (to 9 or to 4) just around the corner - but in the past after monthly scale rallies there were also monthly scale corrections and I would not expect one of them instead of a quick down or up spike. For example see the first monthly scale wave in October-November 2010:  After the about month long rally there was about month long correction. If someone subscribes to the Elliot Waves theory - this was the first sub wave of the first main (yearly) wave - we are now in the first subwave of the second main wave so this one can be quite similar. But even if we look at the other monthly scale waves - they too had corrections that took about the same amount of time. |
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1140
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Economy / Speculation / Re: a message from myself for you the buyer
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on: January 16, 2012, 05:07:41 PM
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come one dont get out from your shorting positions, dont one single damn bitcoin, there are allot of ppl who have long positions from 5$, break the bulls horns, get a premium of 2$ per bitcoin, lets bring this down to 4$ a bitcoin
lets do this, keep selling, keep pumping btc to them
dont be afraid bull horn will burn to the ground, tonight we dine in $4/btc
You omitted the fragment about holding hands together and repeating 'we are the winners, we are the winners, we are the winners, ...'. |
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