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1141
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Economy / Speculation / Re: look at the asterisk
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on: January 16, 2012, 04:17:05 PM
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It's kind of creazy - but really this is how it works. Bitcoinica leads the rally until it gets out of USD - then it cannot buy any more BTC on MtGox - the rally suddenly lacks momentum - people feel that it falters and the tide reverses. Bitcoinica liquidates long positions sells BTC on MtGox, accelerates the down turn and also gathers USD. It is now ready for the next round. |
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1142
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Amazon will be accepting bitcoin
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on: January 16, 2012, 03:00:54 PM
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More likely the support guy was already annoyed at all the personal questions cause it messes with his queue times, and just wanted him to be happy and go away.
Why it does not surprise me to read treads like this on this forum? |
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1143
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Economy / Speculation / Re: RALLY!
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on: January 16, 2012, 02:14:54 PM
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After seeing the Good Wife episode I have to say that I'm now 100% confident that it's only a matter of time when this rally EXPLODES. The pot is about to boil over and the longer it takes for it to start, the more massive the rally will be.
Testing $8 is unquestionable at this point, in fact we could be testing $10 this week.
Didn't you have similar confidence about bitcoin all the way down from August to November? For the long term I mostly share your opinions - but now we are probably heading into a longer correction. |
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1145
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis & other financial markets (bitcoinbullbear.com)
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on: January 16, 2012, 01:52:09 PM
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I don't know about what triangles or breaking averages mean, but I know bitcoinica is out of USD on mtgox, that says to me: don't buy into this "rally" prematurely.
fuck the bitcoinica. own funds = own responsibility = own profit Also bitcoinica ran out of BTC last night allowing for no selling so I would take that with a grain of salt. The fact it fell after bitcoinica ran out of BTC is suspicious to say the least. This would be explainable by shorts - I guess there are lots of them now too - and shorts now also reserve the USD needed for liquidation. Anyway it used to be that the newsletter would move the market - but this time it failed, probably because of bitcoinica. |
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1146
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Economy / Speculation / Re: It's looking a bit bearish right now
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on: January 15, 2012, 07:46:46 PM
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I think this analysis is flawed. The crash stopped at $6.2 and now the bulls have reinforced their positions to the point where the asks look puny in comparison. We will at least test higher levels before another drop is a possibility. Currently the buyers are simply waiting for the sign, when it comes we will test at least $7.2.
You have been posting similar opinions all the way down since August to November, you started to be a bit more cautious just when it was about to bounce back from the bottom at 2. |
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1148
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Gearing up for tomorrow
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on: January 15, 2012, 08:34:23 AM
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That is correct. If there are new users it will take them a day or two to look it up then up to a week to decide whether or not to invest and then another couple days for the transfer of money into MTGox. There will be no direct rise from the show but for the next couple weeks after is anyone's guess.
It took me half a year from hearing a recommendation about bitcoin to bying a bunch. Granted it was much harder back then. It took me 3 days from hearing about Bitcoin to start mining! How is that relevant? How is it any less relevant than what you said? Mining Bitcoins is slowly buying them with a hardware hedge, you understand that right? The Bitcoins I mine never hit the market, so they have just as much of an effect on the price as if I were to purchase them directly. I see - that's a reasonable theory. |
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1149
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Gearing up for tomorrow
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on: January 15, 2012, 08:20:06 AM
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That is correct. If there are new users it will take them a day or two to look it up then up to a week to decide whether or not to invest and then another couple days for the transfer of money into MTGox. There will be no direct rise from the show but for the next couple weeks after is anyone's guess.
It took me half a year from hearing a recommendation about bitcoin to bying a bunch. Granted it was much harder back then. It took me 3 days from hearing about Bitcoin to start mining! How is that relevant? Who elected you relevance police? It was not relevance police - it was only a question. |
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1150
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Gearing up for tomorrow
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on: January 15, 2012, 08:19:11 AM
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It is relevant because people who watch the show might start mining shortly thereafter
OK - I guess this might be relevant for miners who can expect difficulty going up - but not for the bitcoin price. |
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1151
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Gearing up for tomorrow
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on: January 15, 2012, 07:55:47 AM
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That is correct. If there are new users it will take them a day or two to look it up then up to a week to decide whether or not to invest and then another couple days for the transfer of money into MTGox. There will be no direct rise from the show but for the next couple weeks after is anyone's guess.
It took me half a year from hearing a recommendation about bitcoin to bying a bunch. Granted it was much harder back then. It took me 3 days from hearing about Bitcoin to start mining! How is that relevant? |
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1152
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Gearing up for tomorrow
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on: January 15, 2012, 07:11:43 AM
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That is correct. If there are new users it will take them a day or two to look it up then up to a week to decide whether or not to invest and then another couple days for the transfer of money into MTGox. There will be no direct rise from the show but for the next couple weeks after is anyone's guess.
It took me half a year from hearing a recommendation about bitcoin to bying a bunch. Granted it was much harder back then. |
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1153
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin in tv show -The Good Wife - Episode 3.13 - Finding Mr. Bitcoin
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on: January 14, 2012, 07:14:46 PM
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I actually watch this series regularly. Personally I'm looking forward to the episode, but I think the hype is ridiculous and I don't think it will have any real impact on Bitcoin growth aside from speculators with high hopes. Publicity is good, but nobody is going to see this episode and go "ZOMG what is that bitcoin thing, it's real, wow! Let's dump lots of money into it without having a clue about what it actually is!" It usually takes a few hours to sufficiently explain bitcoin in enough depth to tech/econ savvy people, and even then most exhibit a healthy skepticism before bothering to look into it any further. Expecting some kind of massive boost from an inaccurate fictional portrayal in a TV drama is silly. I think the segment that appeared on Fox News "Freedom Watch" with Napolitano was much more important. They actually explained what it was to an audience of folks that would have genuine interest in it. All that said, greed doesn't necessarily follow logic, so I could easily be wrong. Place your bets.  It will not make people jump into trading bitcoins - but it will be the first exposure to many and it can also lead to more media in a snowball effect. But I agree that this will play out in a much longer time frame than most speculator expect it now. |
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1156
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Nobody is fearful for another crash?
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on: January 13, 2012, 07:48:37 PM
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This just looks like fairly bullish consolidation to me.
As long as it stays in the 6.4-6.8 range (spikes for an hour or two non withstanding) I'm confident that we're going to see another solid up push. With the speed of the rally up to now, a week or two of cooling/consolidating around 6.6 is really just what the doctor ordered for peeps to readjust their mindsets to the fact that bitcoin is a solid investment (for a list reasons much too long to get into in this post).
Especially taking the market behavior over the last couple of days under consideration. Peeps haven't been pouring tons of coins into downspikes like we've seen so much of from July-November. To me at least this is a sign of strength that the market is behaving a lot more maturely following a shaking out of the weaker hands that pussy out at the drop of 4-5k btc.
It has never stayed in such a narrow range for two weeks. |
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1157
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Economy / Speculation / Re: To all manipulators here
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on: January 13, 2012, 03:47:57 PM
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If I scale the Hunt Silver Spike to the first Bitcoin bubble and apply the usual timing corrections, it looks like we're at the peak of the Echo Bubble 1983. AMIDOINGITRITE?  Show, don't tell! |
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1158
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Economy / Speculation / Re: To all manipulators here
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on: January 13, 2012, 03:13:47 PM
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I don't like how this 'self manipulation' is taking over this thread - this makes it not safe for work and quite frankly pretty disgusting.
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1159
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Economy / Speculation / Re: To all manipulators here
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on: January 13, 2012, 01:17:11 PM
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Go post your manipulation messages - but be original! Don't post the same old drivel again and again.
I'm manipulating myself at the moment. That's OK with me - as long as you don't talk about it here. |
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