Strange how people interpreted it as if I suggested that EURO failure would move the BTC price up - while I clearly stated that it would mean 'risk off', selling of risky assets like bitcoins. But in the end it is possible that in a case of a full financial meltdown people will try out any crazy schema to get out of the trouble.
Ok, so what do you think people would sell their Bitcoins for? USD? Gold? I don't think either is a very wise choice if the meltdown already happens. Since BTC are mostly traded for USD anyway, are highly liquid and far more resilient to confiscation / currency control measures I sure as hell would hold on to them in case of such a crisis. Answering your question - USD - from what I read on the Internet this is the usual direction in such cases because USD is still considered the safest and the most liquid currency. Also there is a lot of debt denominated in USD - so there can be a kind of short squeeze on dollars - and that is why liquidity matters and why gold can suffer for some time. All of this is what I recently learned from some internet pundits - I am still not very confident about this thinking and I am not convinced that it matters much for bitcoins. Also a drowning man will clutch at a straw - if the crisis gets really bad people will try all kinds of fringe investments and if that happens on a global or even just on a continental scale - then this could send bitcoin prices to the moon. |
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What a contrast with the NY conference pictures!!! |
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No effect. People aren't gonna turn to bitcoins after whats happened to it.
Strange how people interpreted it as if I suggested that EURO failure would move the BTC price up - while I clearly stated that it would mean ' risk off', selling of risky assets like bitcoins. But in the end it is possible that in a case of a full financial meltdown people will try out any crazy schema to get out of the trouble. |
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A complete Euro melt down looks more and more probable. The crisis in the euro area is turning into a panic and dragging the zone into recession. The risk that the currency disintegrates within weeks is alarmingly high from The Economist Beware of falling masonry. I think the common wisdom is that in cases like this there is a flight to safety, risky assets are being sold and dollar rallies, but bitcoin is probably fringe enough for this to have no real effect here. What is your opinion? |
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Everyone is so convinced that a halving of the block reward in 2013 will automatically lead to an increase in bitcoin's price. I wager that it won't. Why? We have seen previously that difficulty does not support price. Difficulty follows price down as miners pull out. Where difficulty was once 1.8M it's struggling to maintain 1.1M.
A halving in the block reward is the exact same thing as doubling the difficulty right now in terms of reward per kilowatt of power spent. What do people think would happen? Would bitcoin's price double, or would even more miners pull out because they're all mining at a loss (stolen or 'free' power not withstanding).
Difficulty does not support price - that is right - this happens because supply of bitcoin does not depend on difficulty (in long term). But when that supply is halved - then we can expect the price to go up. |
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There is lots of coins on sell in TH, but not much dollars to buy them and in effect the prices are constantly lower there. It has been puzzling me why someone insists on selling on TH when he can in one hour move his BTCs to MtGox and sell them for a better price? A few hypotheses:
- it is a manipulation to keep BTC prices down (that was my initial thought - but I've seen it being bought entirely a few times - so that was not that cost free as one would think)
- it is a TH trick to attract more traffic to their site
- moving money out from MtGox is just too costly, complicated and time consuming (the daily quotes, the silent monthly quotes, the fees, for example for SEPA transfers they charge 2% - and the exchange rates for EURo used in these transfers are equally awful).
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I don't think it will drop below $2 - but if it did - then it would probably go all the way down to $1.
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It's interesting time indeed - the bid walls never have been bigger, but on the other hand it seems that the rallies are smaller and smaller even though bouncing back from the huge support. The conference is on the horizon - but on the other hand the EURo fiasco has started another wave of getting rid of all risky investments.
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I guess they are out of funds at th right now because too many people try the arbitrage. I also had sent some money there and even thought the order status is 'completed' the money did not appear at my th account.
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Negative, that was Bitcoinica's bot liquidating a bunch of longs. He confirmed it the day of the selloff. But I guess if you just wanna make stuff up about graphs thats cool too. Maybe you could draw some elliot waves around it or something.
To be precise what Zhoutong confirmed was the sell below 2, that was the second wave, the first one could very well be caused by that guy selling 30K. |
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It's 2.37 now - so your prediction did not work.
.. Yet.. You cannot make the time to go back to the line you drown. |
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Two questions:
How bitcoin could be a medium of exchange without being a good store of value?
How bitcoin could be a good medium of exchange without having low volatility or how bitcoin could have low volatility at low prices?
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It's 2.37 now - so your prediction did not work.
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 Pretty suggestive isn't it? |
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since the manipulator once again struggled hard to manipulate the price above $2 i suggest it is just a matter of time until the price goes deeper than $1.
the manipulator can't just make the price not going deeper. in order to reach its real worth, bitcoin has to touch its ground at least once.
Did you ever think that he actually wants the prices to go down? He sets the bid walls to *temporarily* stop the down trend so that he can sell his coins high, after this is done he wants the price to go down so that he can buy back his coins for cheaper. Then he needs a small bounce back of course - but when there is a dip after a big bidwall was destroyed then the momentum pushes it deeper then the temporal balance - so the bounce back is kind of guaranteed. Not that I really know the motives of people setting these bid walls - but this way they could earn on their actions. |
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hmm.. from what i learned, a manipulated market (...) can't by definition not be a "free market". as long as there is not at least a competitor for "the manipulator" the market can't be called "free market"
That looks like a contradiction. |
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If the trend is to reverse it will be by a massive short squeeze  I count on two things now - the conference, last time Bruce Wagner spoiled all conference news, but this time it should be different, and the Scientific American article. |
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I don't know - I've sold in July what I've bought in March, removed 2/3 of the money and now for half of the rest I've got nearly as much BTC as I started with. Oh boy they are cheap again. Let's see if betting against S3052 will work this time.
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You can automatically trade across all markets on Mt Gox. Gox just adjusts orders in other markets from the one in which it was placed by adding on their 2.5% FX fee. Bob's USD bid can be matched by Alice's NZD ask, so long as there is enough overlap for Gox to take their 2.5%.
Interesting - how do you do that? I just tried buying - but I could no find anyway to translate the bid from usd to the currency of another wallet. |
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