Martin Armstrong Discussion

[tabnloz]

The market will raise the interest rates. The Fed is forced to follow. The market is moving into bonds for the speculative gains but once that peaks probably within September, the market will move into US stocks for speculative gains. That will drive interest rates up. Once rates start moving up in a speculative spiral, the 30 year sovereign bond trend is done. And government and socialism are done. We are in the end game.

Remember the rest of the world is short the dollar (QE carry trade). All international capital will flow into the US stock market. Private assets such as Bitcoin and gold will finally get a bid again after Spring once it is clear that the public assets abroad are dead. As the flow of international capital (and domestic mainstreet capital piling on at the end) peaks in 2017, the USA will go over the cliff and we go into an global hell of deflation from 2018 to 2020. Bitcoin and gold will likely rise incredibly high during this time as government desperately hunts down all capital it can find.

Seems that during last week's dip investors didn't rush back to bonds, as is usually expected. Not sure where they put the money they withdrew (USD?) but this could be a sign of bad things to come for governments.

"one of the most surprising aspects of last week's market turmoil was investors' marked refusal to treat US bonds as a "safe haven". Usually, a bout of sharemarket volatility causes investors seek refuge in bonds, which has the effect of pushing up bond prices and sending bond yields sharply lower. But last week a different pattern emerged. After tumbling below 2 per cent on Monday, bond yields then spiked, with US bonds suffering their biggest weekly price drop in two months."


Because when EM's have to act to defend their currencies they sell assets, including US Bonds.

Some analysts warn that the pressure on US bond markets is likely to intensify as China tries to counteract the effect of heavier capital outflows. Analysts estimate US bond yields could rise by as much as 40 basis points if China sold $US200 billion worth of bonds. Even worse, many emerging countries are seeing their currencies come under pressure, in the wake of China's decision to devalue the yuan. As a result, they've been forced to sell foreign assets – including US bonds – in an effort to prop up their currencies and restore calm to markets.

http://www.afr.com/markets/market-data/bonds/us-bond-market-points-to-more-volatility-ahead-20150830-gjb3qh

[OROBTC]

...

I have been on vacation in recent days, and so not really following too much of what's up. 

I do note that we are about to enter September, the end of which is likely to be interesting for those of us following Martin Armstrong.

But, I wanted to start a thread JUST on the whole 2015.75 notion as well as practical ideas re investment and perhaps even preparation.

OK, "peak government" I kind-of understand, peak government would be just fine with me either here or at the 2015.75 thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1167734.0

[macsga]

Over the weekend, The Financial Times reported that Beijing would abandon its large-scale share purchases. This story sparked declines in China’s A-listed shares, although the Shanghai Composite pared losses to close 0.8 percent down. Then there is Jackson Hole and how amazingly stupid people are who do not understand what the Fed has been saying that they must get back to “normalization” of interest rates. These people, who pretend to be pundits in the know, continue to talk about unemployment, jobs, and inflation as if the Fed was still guided by Keynesian economics. The Fed is trapped and has lost all ability to return to Keynesian economics unless it raises interest rates to “normal” levels. We have a massive debt crisis coming from the state, municipalities, and pension funds. They all needed “normal” interest rates to survive.

I know I'm a bit obsessed with China's economic behavior, but IMHO, it is essential to understand that when the biggest commodities consumer country in the world coughs, the rest will suffer with pneumonia. The above was posted yesterday to the M.A. blog stating, more or less, the change of policy on "holding" the Phaethon's chariot before burning the world in its crazy route of leading the Sun.

It seems FED's interest rates raise is inevitable with all the consequences. Tell me naive but the way I see it, such a initiative inaugurates the beginning of the end for the total economic collapse. It's interesting to see if TPTB inability to predict the storm's that's coming... OR, it's their own plan. Time is nigh anyway.

Have a nice month everybody.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36681

[statdude]

Hi all,

Can anyone lay out Armstrong's broad stock market predictions for the next 5 years for those who haven't yet read every post and article?

If I am understanding correctly, he's predicting the top at 2015.75~ and then a recession/downward trend to 2020~?

[altcoinUK]

Hi all,

Can anyone lay out Armstrong's broad stock market predictions for the next 5 years for those who haven't yet read every post and article?

If I am understanding correctly, he's predicting the top at 2015.75~ and then a recession/downward trend to 2020~?

I think he never said the top will be in 2015.75. According to Armstrong the top will be later, but until we get to the top (maximum 30,000 but most likely a lower figure) around 2017 there will be a volatile market with lots of ups and downs.

[macsga]

So the the whole 2015.75 (sept/oct) predictions of another financial collapse are now slated for 2018?

It just seems like these predictions constantly get thrown around, and every time nothign comes of them, they are ust pushed out a year or two

You want sound bites instead of actually studying in detail that is why you misunderstand.

We have explained many times that the model is the contagion outside the USA starts to accelerate as of Oct 1.

This will cause stampede of capital into the USA, with rising dollar and interest rates in the USA, while the rest of the world falls off the cliff. By 2017.9, this will force the USA over the cliff.

By 2018, we'll in the global contagion hell (USA was the final straw holding up the global economy) yet by 2020 Asia will bottom. Yet the West will continue to collapse. As some point a political axis power-sharing global monetary reset into a NWO one-world reserve currency (by 2032 at the latest), and then we'll see some tenuous global stability, but that political morass will be a parasite that must die. And the West will continue to decline in relative networth for decades. The strong dollar and rising interest rates (as well the prior dollar QE caused via ZIRP carry trade the $9 trillion dollar-short debt in the developing world) while rest of the world collapses will be one of the political justifications for the one-world reserve currency. Also it will be Asia's rising relative networth after 2020.

A radical change to the world begins in earnest this Oct. 1. It is a decades long turbulence.

This is a 309.6 year confluence of cycles event (Civilization change cycle, Public/Private cycle, War Cycle, Pandemic Cycle, etc). Very rare. Happened only a few times in recorded history of the world.

 

In the quoted post above, TPTB_need_war explains what will happen within the next 5y period according to Martin Armstrong. If you check out his posts he's constantly trying to spell out gently for those who don't understand economics what's being predicted on almost every single post Armstrong's posting on his blog.

[TPTB_need_war]

Hi all,

Can anyone lay out Armstrong's broad stock market predictions for the next 5 years for those who haven't yet read every post and article?

If I am understanding correctly, he's predicting the top at 2015.75~ and then a recession/downward trend to 2020~?

I think he never said the top will be in 2015.75. According to Armstrong the top will be later, but until we get to the top (maximum 30,000 but most likely a lower figure) around 2017 there will be a volatile market with lots of ups and downs.

You haven't read my posts carefully. How many times I have explained that the top outside the USA is 2015.75. That is also the top in sovereign bonds.

As the rest of the world is collapsing after October (not instantly but contagion spreading throughout 2016) and short the dollar (due to dollar debt abroad due to QE carry trade), this will drive international capital stampeding into the US dollar and US stocks for one last bubble to peak in 2017. After that, the USA will join the rest of the world into collapse and from 2018 - 2020 will be utter chaos.

Asia bottoms in 2020, but the West will continue going down for decades.

[altcoinUK]

Hi all,

Can anyone lay out Armstrong's broad stock market predictions for the next 5 years for those who haven't yet read every post and article?

If I am understanding correctly, he's predicting the top at 2015.75~ and then a recession/downward trend to 2020~?

I think he never said the top will be in 2015.75. According to Armstrong the top will be later, but until we get to the top (maximum 30,000 but most likely a lower figure) around 2017 there will be a volatile market with lots of ups and downs.

You haven't read my posts carefully. How many times I have explained that the top outside the USA is 2015.75. That is also the top in sovereign bonds.

As the rest of the world is collapsing after October (not instantly but contagion spreading throughout 2016) and short the dollar (due to dollar debt abroad due to QE carry trade), this will drive international capital stampeding into the US dollar and US stocks for one last bubble to peak in 2017. After that, the USA will join the rest of the world into collapse and from 2018 - 2020 will be utter chaos.

Asia bottoms in 2020, but the West will continue going down for decades.

No, I haven't read all your posts though I am reading most of them with interest, but I thought the question was about the top of US and other western markets, so that's why I said that Armstrong is not expecting the top at 2015.75 in the US market. I answered to the question exactly same what you are saying that according to Armstrong the top will be around 2017 in the US market.

[TPTB_need_war]

Hi all,

Can anyone lay out Armstrong's broad stock market predictions for the next 5 years for those who haven't yet read every post and article?

If I am understanding correctly, he's predicting the top at 2015.75~ and then a recession/downward trend to 2020~?

I think he never said the top will be in 2015.75. According to Armstrong the top will be later, but until we get to the top (maximum 30,000 but most likely a lower figure) around 2017 there will be a volatile market with lots of ups and downs.

You haven't read my posts carefully. How many times I have explained that the top outside the USA is 2015.75. That is also the top in sovereign bonds.

As the rest of the world is collapsing after October (not instantly but contagion spreading throughout 2016) and short the dollar (due to dollar debt abroad due to QE carry trade), this will drive international capital stampeding into the US dollar and US stocks for one last bubble to peak in 2017. After that, the USA will join the rest of the world into collapse and from 2018 - 2020 will be utter chaos.

Asia bottoms in 2020, but the West will continue going down for decades.

No, I haven't read all your posts though I am reading most of them with interest, but I thought the question was about the top of US and other western markets, so that's why I said that Armstrong is not expecting the top at 2015.75 in the US market. I answered to the question exactly same what you are saying that according to Armstrong the top will be around 2017 in the US market.

Understood and I summarized that actually. My point is to be more clear because readers can misinterpret. They think "top" means top of everything everywhere.

[altcoinUK]

Hi all,

Can anyone lay out Armstrong's broad stock market predictions for the next 5 years for those who haven't yet read every post and article?

If I am understanding correctly, he's predicting the top at 2015.75~ and then a recession/downward trend to 2020~?

I think he never said the top will be in 2015.75. According to Armstrong the top will be later, but until we get to the top (maximum 30,000 but most likely a lower figure) around 2017 there will be a volatile market with lots of ups and downs.

You haven't read my posts carefully. How many times I have explained that the top outside the USA is 2015.75. That is also the top in sovereign bonds.

As the rest of the world is collapsing after October (not instantly but contagion spreading throughout 2016) and short the dollar (due to dollar debt abroad due to QE carry trade), this will drive international capital stampeding into the US dollar and US stocks for one last bubble to peak in 2017. After that, the USA will join the rest of the world into collapse and from 2018 - 2020 will be utter chaos.

Asia bottoms in 2020, but the West will continue going down for decades.

No, I haven't read all your posts though I am reading most of them with interest, but I thought the question was about the top of US and other western markets, so that's why I said that Armstrong is not expecting the top at 2015.75 in the US market. I answered to the question exactly same what you are saying that according to Armstrong the top will be around 2017 in the US market.

Understood and I summarized that actually. My point is to be more clear because readers can misinterpret. They think "top" means top of everything everywhere.

Absolutely, that is not a question you explain it a lot better - that's why we follow you and are interested in your posts. Thanks for continue posting and have a good work!

[statdude]

Much appreciated guys. now his blog updates make more sense (thought broad top 2015.75 was the prediction)

[TPTB_need_war]

Since no one else is quoting MA's blog lately that much, today's posts were really important...

Velocity of money collapsing so this means the USA economy is dying (even while the last big stampede bubble into US dollar and US stocks will ensue):

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36747



Largest pension plan in the USA buys the top of the sovereign bond bubble (remember top is 2015.75 for bonds):

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36738

USA begins eugenics via taxation:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36715

German DAX stock market headed for top 2015.75:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36755

US stocks basing for a blast off after Spring 2016:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36762

Also the projected high for the DJIA is between 28,000 and 48,000 by no later than 2017.9. So this will be competing against gold and Bitcoin. Basically a double at least. But gold and Bitcoin should be more than a double if purchased at the lows this Spring.

[statdude]

Why does the government HAVE to be so stupid and screw things up for everyone? This is worse news than I thought.

So, the prediction is things will be worse than '08-'09 and won't recover post '20? I thought the phase transition would not be until 2032.95 (see image) with lows first around 2020 (recession)?

[TPTB_need_war]

Why does the government HAVE to be so stupid and screw things up for everyone? This is worse news than I thought.

So, the prediction is things will be worse than '08-'09 and won't recover post '20? I thought the phase transition would not be until 2032.95 (see image) with lows first around 2020 (recession)?

Well you are in a for a rude awakening. It is even much worse than your summary above.

It will be horrifically worse after 2018 than 2008-9.

And it will get worse and worse for the West even after 2020. The West is going to resemble an economic wasteland of expropriation of private wealth, eugenics, and civil or international war.

It's over for the white man. Asian man will be in control from 2020 forward.

The peak in the public wave in the charts you quoted above, is the peak in government for that 51.6 year cycle. But we are also at the peak of 6 cycles = 309.6 year cycle. This long-term cycle always is a change in civilization.

Asia will bottom 2020 and by 2032.95, Asia will have established itself as the new financial center of the world, with Singapore and Shanghai replacing London and New York respectively. And sorry, citizenship in Asia is not available to white men, except perhaps Singapore if you've got the right qualifications. Cambodian citizenship is for sale but I expect those to be ruled fraudulent and revoked in the future. Note with the coming Asian Union in December 2015, citizens throughout the zone can invest and do business throughout the zone with great advantages over non-citizens of the union.




Edit: you asked why governments do this. I think you meant to ask why do people love socialism. Isn't it obvious why people love big government budgets. The people are dumb useless eaters.

[talks_cheep]

2015.75 - 309.6 = 1706.15.

Let's see what happened during the pivotal, rare year 1706:

http://www.hisdates.com/years/1706-historical-events.html

Crap. Nothing happened.

So much for Martin Armstrong's cyclical analysis.

[talks_cheep]

A very nice write-up on MA:

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/10/12/the-secret-cycle

Made me wonder.

[sidhujag]

A very nice write-up on MA:

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/10/12/the-secret-cycle

Made me wonder.

Interesting I follow an astrologer aswell who forecasts doom but not this year. Hes been pretty accurate this far seems planets all speak same langauge regardless of whos interpreting them. Interestinh no mentoom of Gann and his square calculations which ive used and they do work.
Overall cool srticle.

[macsga]

Armstrong hits again today with an explanation of "The End of Government" prediction of his by October 1st. I won't lie, I'm eager to see how this evolves...



Those calling for the end of the world and a 1929 type depression are only looking at the charts. They are clueless as to how everything else is setting up. Nothing is in line for such an event. Keep in mind that event created big government and socialism. This time government is in crash mode, not the private sector. Politicians will do the jumping this time. If the stock market crashed, capital would then run into bonds. Just how low do you think interest rates would go — negative 20%? Come on. This is a 5000-year low in interest rates so we will have to flip out to the upside. There is no choice in this regard.

[suda123]

Armstrong hits again today with an explanation of "The End of Government" prediction of his by October 1st. I won't lie, I'm eager to see how this evolves...



Those calling for the end of the world and a 1929 type depression are only looking at the charts. They are clueless as to how everything else is setting up. Nothing is in line for such an event. Keep in mind that event created big government and socialism. This time government is in crash mode, not the private sector. Politicians will do the jumping this time. If the stock market crashed, capital would then run into bonds. Just how low do you think interest rates would go — negative 20%? Come on. This is a 5000-year low in interest rates so we will have to flip out to the upside. There is no choice in this regard.

can you laymans term this for me =W= please ty

[altcoinUK]

Armstrong hits again today with an explanation of "The End of Government" prediction of his by October 1st. I won't lie, I'm eager to see how this evolves...



Those calling for the end of the world and a 1929 type depression are only looking at the charts. They are clueless as to how everything else is setting up. Nothing is in line for such an event. Keep in mind that event created big government and socialism. This time government is in crash mode, not the private sector. Politicians will do the jumping this time. If the stock market crashed, capital would then run into bonds. Just how low do you think interest rates would go — negative 20%? Come on. This is a 5000-year low in interest rates so we will have to flip out to the upside. There is no choice in this regard.

can you laymans term this for me =W= please ty

Armstrong suggests that once the confidence in government collapse - which according to Armstrong is inevitable - then the capital will flow to private equity, therefore the stock market cannot crash like it crashed in 1929.
Please note he also says that there could be lots of volatility until that big stock market rally will happen, the market could tests the lows down to 13,000 (on Wall Street) which probably will be seen as a big crash by many.