Martin Armstrong Discussion

[TPTB_need_war]

I haven't done any research regarding the comparative rate of unemployment between Europe and the East but it's irrelevant to this matter because: when you need more labor to produce a given result, it's actually very bad. The incentives to improve were on Asia's side, but they didn't.

You are not considering all the variables. Your view is too simpleton.

Of course the end result was bad after over the hundreds of years that Asia fell behind the West in terms of industrialization. In that sense it was defeating and China ended up killing 57 million in a Cultural Revolution to deal with the adverse effects of the inefficiencies and further retarding their economic development. But now they've suddenly started to catch up, because they had no choice. And they offered the release value for the Westerners to be able to continue to live the high life with the least effort.

But over the 1000 or so years that it worked for China, it was because it provided social harmony. Rice production requires communal irrigation and thus very strong local social integration, sharing, and harmony. This is why the Chinese are innately collectivist and into political connections as a method of production.

You are not factoring in the geography of China. China can't be attacked from the West, only from the North (and of course Japan from the East), and thus the Great Wall. China was mostly isolated from the rest of the world by the Himalayan mountain ranges. It is impossible to run military supply lines over those mountain ranges. Thus it was sheltered from the relative competition, until finally in the modern era it no longer is and had to open up because the Chinese people could see on TV what they were missing.

Not incorporating geography[1] and all factors leads simpletons to their Dunning-Kruger behavior.

And I assure you I could refute all your other statements resoundingly, but I don't have time to devote to this.

I suggest you do more studying. And open your mind to many more variables than you are considering before you jump to erroneous simpleton conclusions.


[1] Don't forget my up thread point about the USA having the most ideal geography in the world for physical trade being bissected by navigable from North-to-South Mississippi River and having coasts on both Atlantic and Pacific. This advantage will fade as we grind into the Knowledge Age with localized production with 3D printing.



I address a few real quickly...

When you produce something efficiently that means that there is labor available to produce something else in the economy (a nascent new market) and that the output is cheaper so their is savings available to buy the products of the nascent new market. It's not bad, it's good.

Not at all. You follow Karl Marx in that you focus only on the labor value of an economy. You could have only 20% of the population producing 80% the GDP (most efficiently) and that wouldn't necessary make the rest of the people in the country more productive. They may instead become wards of the State. Saudi Arabia is perhaps an example.

Chineses and Europeans both lived in squalor because they where, as the whole wold, under a Malthusian economic reality (GDP per capita stagnant despite growth in GDP), until Europe starts to escape the Malthusian trap because of its creativity.

You've made no point.

Also Armstrong's chart that you have posted is misleading because it makes a comparison based on the GDP and not the GDP per capita. Under the Sung dynasty (from 950 to 1250) GDP per capita was higher in China than in Europe, but after China GDP per capital stop improving and soon Europe took the lead on that metric (the only relevant one).

GDP per capita is not the relevant statistic on which region becomes the next financial capital of the world. In fact, the very high GDP per capita of Europe is precisely what is enabling this dysfunctional outcome which I somewhat explained in my prior post about cultural stereotypes.

Europe's population is much higher now than it was then before the Black Death, so there wasn't any Malthusian check.

Europe's population right after the Black Death was much lower than before, so there was a Malthusian check.

Ahem. Do you not see your error in logic?

Mathusians claim the natural resources can't support a greater population. Yet the population is now higher than it was and we are not mining resources from outside planet Earth.

Please I am not going to respond any more to people who have such poor logic skills that I will end up in noisy nonsense.

The resource problems are always due to Coasian barriers (to human innovation and expansion of the entropy in the human economy) and there has never been and never will be a Malthusian point of truth. I wrote an essay about this:

http://unheresy.com/Information%20Is%20Alive.html

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[bigtimespaghetti]

To address your assumption of German = Order. Before the first world war (and still being a very young state) 'Made in Germany' was associated with mass produced crap- not necessarily orderliness and organisation. Thus cultures can change (albeit within a few generations with correct incentives). Perhaps that innate flexibility and motivation has been forever lost with multiple generations of nannystate, marxist emasculation throughout most of the west though. It has been over 30 years since Britain bought (whole-heartedly) into leftist rhetoric, so I hold some hope for my country of origin still. Even if by many measures David Cameron is Tony Blairs true successor.

I agree about the white guilt though. I believe it was 2% of the American population that even owned slaves, many other whites were conscripted by state law to hunt slaves- I imagine they were not fond of the immoral institution, seeing as it wasted their time and undercut their labour to boot. White guilt coveniently forgets that anti-slavery movements originated in old honkey Britain. Guilt or pride for actions you did not commit is simply an indulgence in ego or self flagellation- the bread and butter of modern political correctness and liberal cynicism.

[TPTB_need_war]

No raise of interest rates -> http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/17/us-usa-fed-idUSKCN0RH0GH20150917

Only because the US stock market is weak waiting for the downgrades and contagion in Europe and Japan to gain enough momentum to send the stampede of capital into the USA. Be patient grasshopper, Oct 1 is laying the ground work...remember Oct 1 is the BIG BANG for the kickoff, not the finale.

I don't have time to dig for my post up thread where I wrote the market would drive the interest rates higher (the Fed isn't in control) when it stampedes out of bonds into US stocks.

Martin Armstrong has just repeated all my points (again I write what he is going to write before he writes it):

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37256

Yellen Is Trapped in the Worst Nightmare Ever

Yellen has inherited a complete nightmare. Thursday’s decision to delay yet again the long-awaited liftoff from zero interest rates is illustrating that the world economy is totally screwed. There is a lot of speculation about why the Fed seems so reluctant to “normalize monetary policy”. There are of course the typical domestic issues that there is low inflation, weak wage gains in the face of strong job growth, a hike will increase the Federal deficit and then there is the argument that corporations that now have $12.5 trillion in debt. All that is nice, but with corporate debt, our clients are locking in long-term at these levels, not funding anything short-term. Those clients who have listened are preparing for what is to come unlike government which has been forced to shorten the average duration of their debts blind to what happens when rates rise, which will be set in motion by the markets – not Yellen.

Fed is really caught between a rock and a very dark place. Yes, they have the IMF and the world pleading with them not to raise rates for it will hurt other debtors who borrowed excessively using dollars to save money. The Fed is also caught between domestic policy objectives that dictate they MUST raise rates of they will bankrupt countless pension funds and international where emerging markets will go into default because commodities have collapsed and they have no way of paying off this debt that has risen to about 50% of the US national debt.
By avoiding the normalization of interest rates (hikes), the Fed has encouraged government to spend far more than they realize because money is cheap. This will eventually light the fire under the economy helping to fuel the Sovereign Debt Crisis. There appears to be no hope for the Fed and they will be forced to raise rates only when they see asset inflation in equities. Then they will have no choice. This is the worst possible mess and the longer they have waited to normalize interest rates, the worst the total crisis is becoming for they will have zero control over the economy and once that is seen, holy Hell will break lose.

To address your assumption of German = Order. Before the first world war (and still being a very young state) 'Made in Germany' was associated with mass produced crap- not necessarily orderliness and organisation.

You conflated orthogonal issues. The Germans didn't change culture, they just weren't good at manufacturing yet.

I agree about the white guilt though. I believe it was 2% of the American population that even owned slaves, many other whites were conscripted by state law to hunt slaves- I imagine they were not fond of the immoral institution

Your European interpretation of my statements makes me chuckle. You missed my point. I don't care even if every damn American was doing slavery gleefully, I still wouldn't feel guilty. I am not my ancestors. Europeans are so into their guilt with imperialism.

Therefore higher European real wages are not the caused of Industrialization since they are its consequences.

I don't have time to teach someone of your intellectual handicap right now. Sorry.

I already explained that the owners of farms had no incentive to industrialize because labor was too plentiful before the Black Death and thus it was cheaper to use labor than to use any hypothetical industrialization or technical improvement (that couldn't have existed otherwise).

If you can't wrap your mind around that very simple point, then I am sorry I don't have time for you. I'd prefer you shut up (because you are cluttering the threads with noise), but I can't force you too.

[BldSwtTrs]

You are not considering all the variables. Your view is too simpleton.

Dude, it's you who thinks a disease is the cause of the divergence between the East and the West and can explain 800 years of world history.

Of course the end result was bad after over the hundreds of years that Asia fell behind the West in terms of industrialization. In that sense it was defeating and China ended up killing 57 million in a Cultural Revolution to deal with the adverse effects of the inefficiencies and further retarding their economic development. But now they've suddenly started to catch up, because they had no choice. And they offered the release value for the Westerners to be able to continue to live the high life with the least effort.

But over the 1000 or so years that it worked for China, it was because it provided social harmony. Rice production requires communal irrigation and thus very strong local social integration, sharing, and harmony. This is why the Chinese are innately collectivist and into political connections as a method of production.

Real wage are 100% determined by the labor productivity(1), if real wages were higher in Europe than Asia, that means labor was more productive in Europe than in Asia.

If labor was more productive in Europe than in Asia, that means that Europe had already started its industrialization (2).

Therefore higher European real wages are not the caused of Industrialization since they are its consequences.

You can only refute this reasoning if you deny (1) and (2), but (1) and (2) an economic truth. If you don't understand why, then you have some learning to do.

I suggest you do more studying. And open your mind to many more variables than you are considering before you jump to erroneous simpleton conclusions.

I suggest you to stop having such a materialistic view of humans and history, and to learn more about economics.

[1] Don't forget my up thread point about the USA having the most ideal geography in the world for physical trade being bissected by navigable from North-to-South Mississippi River and having coasts on both Atlantic and Pacific. This advantage will fade as we grind into the Knowledge Age with localized production with 3D printing.

I don't say that environmental factors (such as disease or geography) don't have an impact. But they aren't the main driver of history, the main driver of history is the culture.

When you produce something efficiently that means that there is labor available to produce something else in the economy (a nascent new market) and that the output is cheaper so their is savings available to buy the products of the nascent new market. It's not bad, it's good.

Not at all. You follow Karl Marx I see. You could have only 1% of the population producing all the GDP and that wouldn't necessary make the rest of the people in the country more productive. Saudi Arabia is perhaps an example.

What I have said is 100% correct, there is no question about that. You should read this book to understand why: http://www.amazon.com/Economic-Sophisms-Fr%C3%A9d%C3%A9ric-Bastiat/dp/1452856095
I don't see why you are talking about Marx at all.

If you don't get what I have written that means you don't understand basic economics and I cannot help you, only you can make the work needed. I will re-quote myself with slight clarification because there is nothing more to say on that subject:
When you produce a product more efficiently (by saving labor) that means that there is labor available to produce something else in the economy (a nascent new market) and that means the product is cheaper on the marketplace (because prices converge to costs in a free market, and since there is less labor needed to produce the same result, the cost and price drop) so there is increase savings available in the pocket of customers (its cheaper to buy the product) which allows them to buy the products of the nascent new market.

[BldSwtTrs]

Europe's population is much higher now than it was then before the Black Death, so there wasn't any Malthusian check.

Europe's population right after the Black Death was much lower than before, so there was a Malthusian check.

Ahem. Do you not see your error in logic?

Mathusians claim the natural resources can't support a greater population. Yet the population is now higher than it was and we are not mining resources from outside planet Earth.

Europe escape the Malthusian trap some times before the Industrial Revolution. Nobody is claiming that Europe is still under Malthusian constraints. Hone your reading skills before worrying about my logic skills.

Please I am not going to respond any more to people who have such poor logic skills that I will end up in noisy nonsense.

Yeah focus on something where you  actually have a clue like coding or computer sciences.

The resource problems are always due to Coasian barriers (to human innovation and expansion of the entropy in the human economy) and there has never been and never will be a Malthusian point of truth. I wrote an essay about this:

I don't think you understand why I bring Malthus in the discussion. But whatever.

No need to insult me in MP as I don't care about what you think of me. But I am shocked someone of your gorgeous intellect () can be as petty as that.

I already explained that the owners of farms had no incentive to industrialize because labor was too plentiful before the Black Death and thus it was cheaper to use labor than to use any hypothetical industrialization or technical improvement (that couldn't have existed otherwise).

That's a nice story. That's a shame real wages fell in the aftermath of Black Death  

https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15748/

Reread my point on real wages and in the process learn some economics: Real wages are 100% determined by the labor productivity over the long run.

I don't have time to teach someone of your intellectual handicap right now. Sorry.

Nooooooooooooo. Please, please teach me grand master!

[TPTB_need_war]

I don't think there is a finer example of the differences between Europe and the USA than to watch this video of Elvis Presley in 1968. If you make it to the 25 minute point you will get a special treat:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QlliHSRh0A

(I wonder how many votes Clinton got due to his facial structure and mouth resemblance to Elvis)

Dean Martin had that look also (and Johnny Carson resembles POTUS Bush Jr) and he was performing around that same time the music that my grandparents were listening to (as they hadn't racially integrated with the blacks):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9yAFE2ccPs
(this music sounds better to me now than when I was in my youth, as I am now the age my grandparents were when they were listening to this)

In 1965 (year I was born) as Elvis was declining, the Beatles (who were inspired by Elvis) visit Elvis and inspire him to comeback which culminates in above 1968 comeback.

Robert Plant of the British rock band Led Zeppelin explains that Elvis was the source of most of the music creativity coming out of England:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gP-zcXtiXhA

So this is why I say this is a fine example of the American melting pot where we not into guilt and collectivist crap, and instead just grabbing the creativity of the moment irregardless of color, creed, etc.. For example, here is the type of people Elvis might have been drawing inspiration from in the Mississippi "delta" (as Plant said):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFh-JqxvgMw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXZLgJJ7bhQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fa-OhPN3qU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sfl9KUBGQg

Here is Mississippi delta music which reminds me of fishing for crawfish with my father in the swamps of Lousiana when I was 5 years old (you can hear the source of British Led Zeppelin's style in this music):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucRZmqFxUaE

https://youtu.be/j3AKvDkdG-Y?t=173


Bands that come to mind from that time with this blues sound were Creedence Clearwater Revival and Guess Who:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulQTazgj9VE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aae_RHRptRg




America is unrefined and a melting pot. And that is what makes it creative.

But America has been flattened by the strip mall. It is evolving. I haven't been there for almost a decade. I don't know what is happening now. The music I am getting exposed to coming out of the USA doesn't have the same connection to the blues and realities of the Old South before modern times.

In short I think it is all become too commercialized.

Less prosperous times and people being more in touch with each other and the earth seemed to produce a different quality of experiences and thus music. Music these days doesn't have enough edge for me in most cases. It is lacking deep nuances of flavor. The short word is bland, as I see the British music even the Beatles to me were bland.

It is like mayonnaise has been poured on top.

[TPTB_need_war]

That's a nice story. That's a shame real wages fell in the aftermath of Black Death  

https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15748/

Read your own source:

Not until the later 1370s – almost thirty years after the Black Death – did real wages finally recover and then rapidly surpass the peak achieved in the late 1330s.

What do you expect short-term for an economy devastated by 40+% population kill off.

Once the crisis passed and the economy got back rolling again, it was the great reduction in the labor supply that allowed wages to rise as they hadn't before when laborers were substitute goods in an oversupply because grains farming other than rice is not as labor intensive.

And that spurned the demand for innovations which could once again reduce labor intensity.

Please do not continue your nonsense. You can protest all you want about me suggesting to you to stop splattering your Dunning-Kruger arrogance all over this thread.

Are you French? (see http://france-bitcoin.net/ in your signature line that makes me think maybe you are). If so, perhaps that might explain your arrogant attitude. I've heard but never experienced personally that the French are quite arrogant.

[TPTB_need_war]

Another very interesting revelation. I had traded discussions with this guy in the Scala discussion lists over the years:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Phillips_(poker_player)

He is extremely intelligent. Apparently he couldn't deal with Martin Odersky's (a German) orderly orderness and refusal to redirect the ship. But then again Paul was sort of crank. Typical American flippant loud mouth at times, but I also liked his humor.

Recently Martin told me to cool it, when discussing potential new directions for Scala in the Scala language mailing list. I just quit as he requested.

[Thenoticer]

In regards to your wondering what americans are listening to.

These sets have some amazing rock / jam funk that honor many rock musicians.

Careful , its an aquired taste, real masterful musicians that dont use an autotuner, and sell out every show consistently for years and years. This is not your pop tart music .

http://phishthoughts.com/nospoilers/

I don't think there is a finer example of the differences between Europe and the USA than to watch this video of Elvis Presley in 1968. If you make it to the 25 minute point you will get a special treat:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QlliHSRh0A

(I wonder how many votes Clinton got due to his facial structure and mouth resemblance to Elvis)

Dean Martin had that look also and he was performing around that same time the music that my grandparents were listening to (as they hadn't racially integrated with the blacks):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9yAFE2ccPs
(this music sounds better to me now than when I was in my youth, as I am now the age my grandparents were when they were listening to this)

In 1965 (year I was born) as Elvis was declining, the Beatles (who were inspired by Elvis) visit Elvis and inspire him to comeback which culminates in above 1968 comeback.

Robert Plant of the British rock band Led Zeppelin explains that Elvis was the source of most of the music creativity coming out of England:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gP-zcXtiXhA

So this is why I say this is a fine example of the American melting pot where we not into guilt and collectivist crap, and instead just grabbing the creativity of the moment irregardless of color, creed, etc.. For example, here is the type of people Elvis might have been drawing inspiration from in the Mississippi "delta" (as Plant said):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFh-JqxvgMw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXZLgJJ7bhQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fa-OhPN3qU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sfl9KUBGQg

Here is Mississippi delta music which reminds me of fishing for crawfish with my father in the swamps of Lousiana when I was 5 years old (you can hear the source of British Led Zeppelin's style in this music):

https://youtu.be/j3AKvDkdG-Y?t=173


Bands that come to mind from that time with this blues sound were Creedence Clearwater Revival and Guess Who:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulQTazgj9VE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aae_RHRptRg




America is unrefined and a melting pot. And that is what makes it creative.

But America has been flattened by the strip mall. It is evolving. I haven't been there for almost a decade. I don't know what is happening now. The music I am getting exposed to coming out of the USA doesn't have the same connection to the blues and realities of the Old South before modern times.

In short I think it is all become too commercialized.

Less prosperous times and people being more in touch with each other and the earth seemed to produce a different quality of experiences and thus music. Music these days doesn't have enough edge for me in most cases. It is lacking deep nuances of flavor. The short word is bland, as I see the British music even the Beatles to me were bland.

It is like mayonnaise has been poured on top.

[TPTB_need_war]

In regards to your wondering what americans are listening to.

These sets have some amazing rock / jam funk that honor many rock musicians.

Careful , its an aquired taste, real masterful musicians that dont use an autotuner, and sell out every show consistently for years and years. This is not your pop tart music .

http://phishthoughts.com/nospoilers/

I just briefly sampled the first one. Don't worry I acquire music taste nearly instantly. Will need to spend more time on it when I have some more time.

I remember in 2003 in Corpus Christi I heard Zug Izland live and they were not bland (more impressive live):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwzWe08iuQM

Also I forgot there is one British performer from The Smiths who is unique (weird) enough for me to feel he is not bland:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TaUUYV7wKos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZQWjKMQsQw

The German band Depeche Mode is very commercialized but they even mixed it up a bit with latest song, and they've been going strong for decades which is impressive:

https://youtu.be/YYtXCxtp6sQ?t=765

I don't know much about folk music in Europe. I've only seen what appears to be very bland what appears to be opera or that sort, which bores me.

I caught a Metallic concert in the early 80s before they became so popular at a small venue in the San Fernando Valley. It was an accident. We were drunk and cruising all around and happenstanced on the venue and landed inside and it was quite impressive the head banging and slam dancing. Pure guy thing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgJwXVaXUek&list=PL48E286795E97866B&index=6

Listen to this:

https://youtu.be/9B-qOSEwvxM?t=210

Here it is:

https://youtu.be/fq-oQgpVg4I?t=39

[BldSwtTrs]

Please do not continue your nonsense. You can protest all you want about me suggesting to you to stop splattering your Dunning-Kruger arrogance all over this thread.

Are you French? (see http://france-bitcoin.net/ in your signature line that makes me think maybe you are). If so, perhaps that might explain your arrogant attitude. I've heard but never experienced personally that the French are quite arrogant.

Yes I am French and I am arrogant only when I am talking subjects that I know I master and against people like you who are ahead of themselves, arrogance is the only healthy attitude in those particular circumstances.

But my arrogance is dwarfed by your delusion of grandeur. You think you know everything even in domains where you are not an expert. The idea that people can know more than you on a subject seems a completely crazy idea to you. You approach every debate with a judgmental and closed mentality where you think you are qualify to asses the IQ of people even if most of the time you don't even comprehend what they are saying.

Your delusion of grandeur and low empathy skills prevent you from incorporating feedback, cause your errors to persist over time and you conduct you to repeat false things with overconfidence. You are you own enemy.
--------------------------------
Now lets read together an article of Szabo on this subject:
http://unenumerated.blogspot.fr/2013/11/european-asian-divergence-predates.html

"Many of the economically important innovations in northwestern Europe long predate not only the industrial revolution, but also the Black Death ("

He says that innovations that lead to the Great Divergence (the rise of the West) predate the Black Death. Which is pretty much what I am saying.

"1) heavy dairying

(2) Co-evolution of human lactase persistence and cow milk proteins

(2) delayed marriage

(3) hay

(4) greater use of draft animals

These innovations all long predate the Black Death"

He says it again.

"Higher labor productivity implies higher per capita income"
Exactly what I have written two time already. I will re-quote myself because it's the only thing to do with people who people overlook your wisdom because they think you are dumb:  "Real wage are 100% determined by the labor productivity"

"these seem not to have had an anti-Malthusian effect in increasing labor productivity "
He says that the West had start to escape the Malthusian trap before the Black Death because of these innovations.

"the increased efficiency of rice in converting solar power to consumable calories, for example, simply led to a greater population rather than a sustained increase in per capita income."
He says that the East failed to escape the Malthusian trap. He seems to wrongly attribute the cause of this to the rice cultivation, when a more robust explanation is a lack of creativity.
----------------------
So according to Szabo innovations, and therefore the labor productivity, and therefore real wages, were higher in the West before the Black Death.

It's undermine your thesis (high real wages in Europe were not caused by the mortality caused by the plague, but were caused by the innovations which predate the Black Death) and sustain mine (high real wages were caused by the West greater creativity, ie an internal factor whose origin can be found in its culture, not an external factor like the plague).

[jehst]

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/16/why-chinas-yuan-may-be-set-for-15-devaluation.html

Sounds like the Chinese government is trying to warn the markets about the coming devaluation with this leak/soft-announcement. If China, Japan, and Korea get into a fully blown currency war while the EUR dies and emerging markets suffer from low commodities prices, then how will America deal with the resulting USD deflation? It sounds like the coming deflation might end up being worse than I've imagined.

[Corazon79]

Depeche Mode is an English band. The other singer you're thinking of is Morrissey.

I think Dark Wave is a movement you'd be interested in. Germany and Scandinavia became embroiled in that trend. Actually I really like the rock band Sisters of Mercy, from that era. The band is from Leeds, UK, but singer Andrew Eldritch is fluent in French and German and he spent many years living in Hamburg. He often gives interviews on TV and radio in German.

[klee]

Please do not continue your nonsense. You can protest all you want about me suggesting to you to stop splattering your Dunning-Kruger arrogance all over this thread.

Are you French? (see http://france-bitcoin.net/ in your signature line that makes me think maybe you are). If so, perhaps that might explain your arrogant attitude. I've heard but never experienced personally that the French are quite arrogant.

Yes I am French and I am arrogant only when I am talking subjects that I know I master and against people like you who are ahead of themselves, arrogance is the only healthy attitude in those particular circumstances.

But my arrogance is dwarfed by your delusion of grandeur. You think you know everything even in domains where you are not an expert. The idea that people can know more than you on a subject seems a completely crazy idea to you. You approach every debate with a judgmental and closed mentality where you think you are qualify to asses the IQ of people even if most of the time you don't even comprehend what they are saying.

Your delusion of grandeur and low empathy skills prevent you from incorporating feedback, cause your errors to persist over time and you conduct you to repeat false things with overconfidence. You are you own enemy.

I hope you read these lines VERY CAREFULLY Anonymint....

[sidhujag]

Please do not continue your nonsense. You can protest all you want about me suggesting to you to stop splattering your Dunning-Kruger arrogance all over this thread.

Are you French? (see http://france-bitcoin.net/ in your signature line that makes me think maybe you are). If so, perhaps that might explain your arrogant attitude. I've heard but never experienced personally that the French are quite arrogant.

Yes I am French and I am arrogant only when I am talking subjects that I know I master and against people like you who are ahead of themselves, arrogance is the only healthy attitude in those particular circumstances.

But my arrogance is dwarfed by your delusion of grandeur. You think you know everything even in domains where you are not an expert. The idea that people can know more than you on a subject seems a completely crazy idea to you. You approach every debate with a judgmental and closed mentality where you think you are qualify to asses the IQ of people even if most of the time you don't even comprehend what they are saying.

Your delusion of grandeur and low empathy skills prevent you from incorporating feedback, cause your errors to persist over time and you conduct you to repeat false things with overconfidence. You are you own enemy.
--------------------------------
Now lets read together an article of Szabo on this subject:
http://unenumerated.blogspot.fr/2013/11/european-asian-divergence-predates.html

"Many of the economically important innovations in northwestern Europe long predate not only the industrial revolution, but also the Black Death ("

He says that innovations that lead to the Great Divergence (the rise of the West) predate the Black Death. Which is pretty much what I am saying.

"1) heavy dairying

(2) Co-evolution of human lactase persistence and cow milk proteins

(2) delayed marriage

(3) hay

(4) greater use of draft animals

These innovations all long predate the Black Death"

He says it again.

"Higher labor productivity implies higher per capita income"
Exactly what I have written two time already. I will re-quote myself because it's the only thing to do with people who people overlook your wisdom because they think you are dumb:  "Real wage are 100% determined by the labor productivity"

"these seem not to have had an anti-Malthusian effect in increasing labor productivity "
He says that the West had start to escape the Malthusian trap before the Black Death because of these innovations.

"the increased efficiency of rice in converting solar power to consumable calories, for example, simply led to a greater population rather than a sustained increase in per capita income."
He says that the East failed to escape the Malthusian trap. He seems to wrongly attribute the cause of this to the rice cultivation, when a more robust explanation is a lack of creativity.
----------------------
So according to Szabo innovations, and therefore the labor productivity, and therefore real wages, were higher in the West before the Black Death.

It's undermine your thesis (high real wages in Europe were not caused by the mortality caused by the plague, but were caused by the innovations which predate the Black Death) and sustain mine (high real wages were caused by the West greater creativity, ie an internal factor whose origin can be found in its culture, not an external factor like the plague).

+1

[TPTB_need_war]

Depeche Mode is an English band. The other singer you're thinking of is Morrissey.

I was really into their album Black Celebration when it first arrived in the 1980s. I wasn't so much into their big hits before that. The music I really find boring is all that repetitive techno that seems to be popular in Europe and sounds the same to me. Other than that, opera, and various folk styles of music, I don't know of much coming out of Europe other than the occasional British band or artist and I shouldn't forget Led Zeppelin (I still have Led Zeppelin - How Many More Times in my regular workout playlist.) and Australia's AC DC which were both big for me as teenager. When I have time, I look into those suggestions you made. Brits apparently inject their nonchalance into their music, which typically is less appealing to me. But Morrisey is just weird (blunt, humor, outlandish, etc) enough to keep it interesting for me. Now when I listen to Elvis he was hard-edged mixed with soulful Deep South and just far enough away from pop R&B and closer to Mississippi delta blues to translate some of the full body aroma. Apparently though he wasn't creative enough to write his own music and looks like creatively he burned out fast and lost his direction as a result. He was all high energy, fan entertainment. When the song writers stopped making new hits for his style, he didn't have anything new to be excited about. Sad for me to see such a vocal and stylistic talent being so high on drugs in his last public performance that he couldn't recite the words of his famous song.

I like the Old America with its nuanced, non-commercialized flavors and blunt, unrefined, hard-edges. I want to listen to some of that new stuff coming out and see if there is still any deep chicory flavor or other influences. Maybe America is not (musically) dead.

The grunge rock out of Seattle in the early 90s produced some good music in my opinion. For example, Alice in Chains and one of my favorites from that period Stone Tone Pilots - Unglued (but the chorus is too bland). Also Nirvana - Very Ape instrumental.

[TPTB_need_war]

Yes I am French and I am arrogant only when I am talking subjects that I know I master...

Exhibit A:

I don't like misinformation. This graphic is misinformation....

It was used to emphasize a point that imported RAW milk cheeses are illegal in the USA (less than 60 days aged) whereas guns are not.

Of course the Europeans will frame the outrageous USA ban on RAW foods (that have all the healthy enzymes we need for proper health) as one of guns being bad because Europeans are so far into Communism they can't even seem to understand their multi-culturalism is their own Freudian desire to steal from someone while pretending it is love (formerly known as imperialism).

Europe will crash and burn severely. Mark my word.

[TPTB_need_war]

Exhibit B:

Now lets read together an article of Szabo on this subject:
http://unenumerated.blogspot.fr/2013/11/european-asian-divergence-predates.html

...

"Higher labor productivity implies higher per capita income"

Exactly what I have written two time already. I will re-quote myself because it's the only thing to do with people who people overlook your wisdom because they think you are dumb:  "Real wage are 100% determined by the labor productivity"

"the increased efficiency of rice in converting solar power to consumable calories, for example, simply led to a greater population rather than a sustained increase in per capita income."

He says that the East failed to escape the Malthusian trap. He seems to wrongly attribute the cause of this to the rice cultivation, when a more robust explanation is a lack of creativity.
----------------------
So according to Szabo innovations, and therefore the labor productivity, and therefore real wages, were higher in the West before the Black Death.

It's undermine your thesis (high real wages in Europe were not caused by the mortality caused by the plague, but were caused by the innovations which predate the Black Death) and sustain mine (high real wages were caused by the West greater creativity, ie an internal factor whose origin can be found in its culture, not an external factor like the plague).

Yet again you demonstrate myopic selective reading comprehension of your quoted sources and confirmation bias by failing to entertain all of the variables:

These innovations all long predate the Black Death, except that thereafter this biological divergence, especially in the use of draft animals, accelerated.  After a brief interruption the lactase persistent core resumed its thousand-year conversion of draft power from humans and oxen to horses, including super-horses bred to benefit from good fodder crops -- the Shire Horse, Percheron, Belgian, etc., and of course the famous Clydesdale of the beer ads.  Draft horses figured prominently in the great expansion of the English coal mines from the 14th to 18th centuries.

Greater use of draft animals led to higher labor productivity and larger markets for agricultural output, and thus to greater agricultural specialization. Higher labor productivity implies higher per capita income, even if it can’t be measured. For civilizations outside Western Europe by contrast, much less use was made of draft animals with the result that these effects were confined to within a dozen or less miles of navigable water.

The new innovations and natural shifts before the Black Death you cited were largely ineffective at greatly accelerating the rate of labor productivity increases for Europe pre-Black Death because the economic incentive didn't exist for the land owners, because labor was too abundant. The feudal land owners were apathetic and had no real strong reason not the be. The Black Death shook up the balance-of-power between labor and master owners which accelerated the progress of Europe. Feudalism in Europe is cited to have taken hold in the 10th and not departed entirely until the 15th centuries.

By the way, if you re-read all my up thread discussion with you, I have never argued that the increase in labor productivity was not necessary to escape feudalism. I did however point out that increases in labor productivity do not lead to any one type of outcome, if for example the labor productivity growth among one sector in the domestic economy is offset by another domestic sector (e.g. perhaps Saudi Arabia). So just a warning in advance not to conflate orthogonal points in any future idiotic rebuttal you may attempt.

"these seem not to have had an anti-Malthusian effect in increasing labor productivity "

He says that the West had start to escape the Malthusian trap before the Black Death because of these innovations.

Your English comprehension is apparently about 7th grade level. That is not the meaning Szabo wrote.

Greater use of draft animals led to higher labor productivity and larger markets for agricultural output, and thus to greater agricultural specialization. Higher labor productivity implies higher per capita income, even if it can’t be measured. For civilizations outside Western Europe by contrast, much less use was made of draft animals with the result that these effects were confined to within a dozen or less miles of navigable water.

Contrariwise, northern Europe has always been at a severe ecological disadvantage to warmer climates when it comes to growing rice, cotton, sugar, and most other economically important crops.  However these seem not to have had an anti-Malthusian effect in increasing labor productivity -- the increased efficiency of rice in converting solar power to consumable calories, for example, simply led to a greater population rather than a sustained increase in per capita income.

Szabo is writing about the acceleration in the use of draft animals post-Black Death and the fact that there never existed any Malthusian trap, rather only the feudal land owners (a Coasian barrier) stomping on the free market.

Exactly what I told you up thread.

Now please STFU. You are wasting my time. Have you no shame?

[Spring Tide]

Hi, I'd like to thank you all for the very informative/educative posts (on many different informative threads).

I can't offer any substantial input in return, can reply with some opinion/experience if anybody's interested, 19yo born and raised in The Netherlands.

To my experience, the educational system is not adapting rapid changes (social/structural/knowledge age stuff) fast enough.

Your European interpretation of my statements makes me chuckle.

I should not be saying this but please don't get too distracted anony, we all have great faith in you and am very eager to start zapping Ions

[TPTB_need_war]

You are the generation I want to connect with and wasn't sure if I could. So you post means I lot to me. Thank you. You are the future.