Martin Armstrong Discussion

[sidhujag]

Expecting gold to decline over the next week or so.  Definitely a buy below 1250

Im looking at around 700 to 800 for final target

That would take a while, were it to happen.  AFAICT, gold is going down past the ides of August, and should have a distinct local top sometime in September.  In order to reach as low as you suggest, then, it would require several months of decline, into mid-2017 at least.  Personally, I think the policy risk environment will prevent that from occurring during that time-frame.  But my gold exposure is small enough so that I wouldn't mind doubling down on it, if so.

Yea i dunno about timeline... but capitulation has to happen still

[1715343156]

1715343156

[moccablackforrest]

 

Expecting gold to decline over the next week or so.  Definitely a buy below 1250

Im looking at around 700 to 800 for final target

That would take a while, were it to happen.  AFAICT, gold is going down past the ides of August, and should have a distinct local top sometime in September.  In order to reach as low as you suggest, then, it would require several months of decline, into mid-2017 at least.  Personally, I think the policy risk environment will prevent that from occurring during that time-frame.  But my gold exposure is small enough so that I wouldn't mind doubling down on it, if so.

Yea i dunno about timeline... but capitulation has to happen still

I don't understand about gold prediction by Armstrong.
It looks to me gold moving up..up..up
Are you sure gold will be under 1300 again?

[sidhujag]

Expecting gold to decline over the next week or so.  Definitely a buy below 1250

Im looking at around 700 to 800 for final target

That would take a while, were it to happen.  AFAICT, gold is going down past the ides of August, and should have a distinct local top sometime in September.  In order to reach as low as you suggest, then, it would require several months of decline, into mid-2017 at least.  Personally, I think the policy risk environment will prevent that from occurring during that time-frame.  But my gold exposure is small enough so that I wouldn't mind doubling down on it, if so.

Yea i dunno about timeline... but capitulation has to happen still

I don't understand about gold prediction by Armstrong.
It looks to me gold moving up..up..up
Are you sure gold will be under 1300 again?

Noone is ever sure but makes sense 600 to 700ish based on  contrarian

[minor-transgression]

Just a thought on the Economic Confidence model. When comedy gets to the mainstream,
how long before it's all over?

Bird and Fortune - the Subprime Crisis - The South Bank Show - The last Laugh - 14 October 2007
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzJmTCYmo9g

[altcoinUK]

Just a thought on the Economic Confidence model. When comedy gets to the mainstream,
how long before it's all over?

Bird and Fortune - the Subprime Crisis - The South Bank Show - The last Laugh - 14 October 2007
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzJmTCYmo9g

Funny and of course quite true.

[OROBTC]

...

Armstrong does not like stupid laws re carrying large amounts of cash.  In this story, he says how he once (long ago) sold $500,000 in Krugerrands for cash to someone, and never even knew his name...:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/money-smuggling-v-money-laundering/

My how freedom has changed...

*   *   *

Nor does Armstrong like Hillary much:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/hillarys-parkinsons-disease-true-or-false/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/hillarys-corruption-knows-no-end/

[STT]

Just a thought on the Economic Confidence model. When comedy gets to the mainstream,
how long before it's all over?

Bird and Fortune - the Subprime Crisis - The South Bank Show - The last Laugh - 14 October 2007
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzJmTCYmo9g

lol thats genius.   The timing on that sketch is amazing, just before the recession.   Its generally true now that comedy better describes politics then the actual political programs.  Finance also has been hijacked to some extent by this fiat manipulation rather then vice versa capitalism dictating current trends and politics negotiating it best for the nations progress.

Its always been that comedy is a valid description and its protected by law as a means of criticism and free speech, libel cannot be levied against those who joke.  Its one of the last bastions of freedom

Expecting gold to decline over the next week or so.  Definitely a buy below 1250

Im looking at around 700 to 800 for final target

Gold itself in its market will not vary that much in the next year.   Whats really being stated when we suppose the price change is the strength of the dollar and closely associated major currencies and trades.    
There is the strange idea that the FED will raise rates and somehow it will have a rate higher then inflation.  I think that is quite unlikely, the obvious conclusion must be that gold price will rise on average because the effective headline rate is negative and probably it stays this way.    Unless government stops running a fiscal deficit then maybe they can afford to pay back some debt (or GDP growth raises dollar worth that way) and so some actual tightening in the monetary base will occur, my guess is they wont do it.
Ive no idea what Trump would do if in power but I imagine he is not the radical he supposes when the choices would be so hard and unpopular short term

[iamnotback]

A reason the USA can fracture into regions and Canada can not:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/canadian-v-us-municipality-debt-crisis/

[OROBTC]

...

Armstrong has two notes of interest today...:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/rule-of-law/saudia-arabia-to-sell-all-us-assets-as-congress-overrides-obama-veto/

In which he writes that Saudi Arabia will sell its assets in the USA.  To keep said assets away from teh lawyers when the 9-11 lawsuits start...  Ahh, I doubt it.  What is the alternative for their money?

And he takes a look at the scary Deutsche Bank scenario and related:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/deutsche-bank-the-meltdown-crisis/

Which could potentially be very scary...  Nice graphic there showing DB links to other big banks.  All dominos...

[deisik]

...

Armstrong has two notes of interest today...:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/rule-of-law/saudia-arabia-to-sell-all-us-assets-as-congress-overrides-obama-veto/

In which he writes that Saudi Arabia will sell its assets in the USA.  To keep said assets away from teh lawyers when the 9-11 lawsuits start...  Ahh, I doubt it.  What is the alternative for their money?

They could allegedly sell their heaps of treasuries to Russia or China. This is not what they might want to do but they may, nevertheless, be forced to do that or something to that tune. It is often speculated that Iran had been selling some part of its oil to European countries through Russia until the sanctions against it were finally lifted. Why can't Saudi Arabia use the same trick? And we should in no case forget that the US has 4 (!) military bases in the KSA...

So the matter is highly if not insanely complicated and entangled in this affair overall

[freshman777]

They could allegedly sell their heaps of treasuries to Russia or China.

Very unlikely.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/once-the-biggest-buyer-china-starts-dumping-u-s-government-debt-1444196065

[deisik]

They could allegedly sell their heaps of treasuries to Russia or China.

Very unlikely.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/once-the-biggest-buyer-china-starts-dumping-u-s-government-debt-1444196065

You seem to have overlooked when this piece (of trash) has been published. Just in case, it was published just a few days short of a whole year ago, on October 7, 2015. I think one year time span is quite enough to sell out the US government debt had they really wanted to. And how much did they actually sell since then? In fact, I've been hearing these threats of China liquidating their stashes of treasuries and crashing the US dollar for about a decade already, if not for longer...

Nothing significant has come out of it beyond the usual turnover of debt

[freshman777]

They could allegedly sell their heaps of treasuries to Russia or China.

Very unlikely.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/once-the-biggest-buyer-china-starts-dumping-u-s-government-debt-1444196065

You seem to have overlooked when this piece (of trash) has been published. Just in case, it was published just a few days short of a whole year ago, on October 7, 2015. I think one year time span is quite enough to sell out the US government debt had they really wanted to. And how much did they actually sell since then? In fact, I've been hearing these threats of China liquidating their stashes of treasuries and crashing the US dollar for about a decade already, if not for longer...

Nothing significant has come out of it beyond the usual turnover of debt

Not really I didn't overlook the date. They've been slowly selling, like any market they can't dump fast for lack of buyers in the order book for that vast sum.

http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt
China:
October 2015 - 1254.8
July 2016 - 1218.8

The difference may not be significant at the first sight, but take into account that prior to a year ago they were accumulating US debt, so the difference is not only what they sold but also what they have *not* bought since then. They are trapped with that huge pile of USD debt though. They can't liquidate fast for fear of crashing the price and can't liquidate all of it, others will be front-running them. Someone else has to take up the slack. In the end that someone else is quickly turning out to be no other than the Fed, buyer of last resort.

[deisik]

They could allegedly sell their heaps of treasuries to Russia or China.

Very unlikely.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/once-the-biggest-buyer-china-starts-dumping-u-s-government-debt-1444196065

You seem to have overlooked when this piece (of trash) has been published. Just in case, it was published just a few days short of a whole year ago, on October 7, 2015. I think one year time span is quite enough to sell out the US government debt had they really wanted to. And how much did they actually sell since then? In fact, I've been hearing these threats of China liquidating their stashes of treasuries and crashing the US dollar for about a decade already, if not for longer...

Nothing significant has come out of it beyond the usual turnover of debt

Not really I didn't overlook the date. They've been slowly selling, like any market they can't dump fast for lack of buyers in the order book for that vast sum.

http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt
China:
October 2015 - 1254.8
July 2016 - 1218.8

The difference may not be significant at the first sight, but take into account that prior to a year ago they were accumulating US debt, so the difference is not only what they sold but also what they have *not* bought since then. They are trapped with that huge pile of USD debt though. They can't liquidate fast for fear of crashing the price and can't liquidate all of it, others will be front-running them. Someone else has to take up the slack. In the end that someone else is quickly turning out to be no other than the Fed, buyer of last resort.

Maybe they are just making more room for the KSA held treasuries patiently and silently awaiting when the shit finally hits the fan, why not? After all, Saudi Arabia (along with Russia) is the biggest crude oil exporter to China. Further, Russia has been said to be buying the US debt again, all despite recent war rhetoric and tensions between it and the US:

Since December 2014, Russia gradually decreased its holdings. In April 2015, they reached $66.5 billion. Since May 2015, Russia’s holdings have again been increasing

If you have more up-to-date info, you're welcome (that piece is of March 17, 2016)

[deisik]

Well, it kinda seems that the shit started hitting the fan sooner than expected. Just two days after the US Congress enacted legislation allowing Americans to sue foreign governments, a widow whose husband had been killed at the Pentagon in the September 11 attacks filed a lawsuit against Saudi Arabia for "wrongful death and intentional infliction of emotional distress" seeking "unspecified compensatory and punitive damages". It is speculated that judgments against Saudi Arabia could exceed $27 billion depending on the claims awarded in lawsuits against other defendants such as Iran which is also considered involved in the terrorist attacks (despite being the worst enemy of the KSA, but who cares)...

Whether the families of the almost 3,000 killed in the attacks will be able to collect on the judgments remains to be seen, though

[freshman777]

Well, it kinda seems that the shit started hitting the fan sooner than expected.

The power of exponents.

[tabnloz]

...

Armstrong has two notes of interest today...:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/rule-of-law/saudia-arabia-to-sell-all-us-assets-as-congress-overrides-obama-veto/

They could allegedly sell their heaps of treasuries to Russia or China.

Slightly OT but emerging market economies have been selling UST's for around a year. That begs the question: who is buying? The answer is the good old pension funds who are "encouraged" to do so.

[OROBTC]

...

Armstrong is a font of things to think about...  Here are his thoughts re the Roman & Chinese Empires communicating & trading with each other long ago (including both having landed in the New World long ago):

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/history/ancient-economies/romans-landed-in-america-and-sent-ambassadors-to-china/

*   *   *

He is quite interested in our upcoming election, and he does not like Hillary and the D-Team much:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/worker-discovers-warehouse-in-ohio-loaded-with-ballots-for-hillary-already-filled-out/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/are-they-planning-to-deny-the-election-if-trump-wins/

I wonder: would they dare deny the election to The Donald even if he wins?  The corruption runs very deep this time around.

[vokain]

...

Armstrong is a font of things to think about...  Here are his thoughts re the Roman & Chinese Empires communicating & trading with each other long ago (including both having landed in the New World long ago):

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/history/ancient-economies/romans-landed-in-america-and-sent-ambassadors-to-china/

*   *   *

He is quite interested in our upcoming election, and he does not like Hillary and the D-Team much:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/worker-discovers-warehouse-in-ohio-loaded-with-ballots-for-hillary-already-filled-out/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/are-they-planning-to-deny-the-election-if-trump-wins/

I wonder: would they dare deny the election to The Donald even if he wins?  The corruption runs very deep this time around.

Second link is a hoax https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/worker-claims-to-discover-a-warehouse-in-ohio-loaded-with-ballots-for-hillary-already-filled-out/

[OROBTC]

...

Ahh, vokain, we need fact checkers here at least as much as in the Trump - Hillary debates.  Thank you.

I just post Armstrong material when it looks of interest to people reading this thread.

Armstrong now (Friday evening US ET) has two items on the strong US$ and the British pounds "flash-crash".

*   *   *

Zero Hedge and CNN both have stories out on both Trump's 2005 tasteless comments re Trump's "lewd locker room banter" on women and excerpts (80 pages) of "sensitive" items of Hillary's Goldman-Sachs speeches.

We're getting some real mud slinging now.  Looks like this is going to be down-and-dirtier than even I expected.

The loud-mouth fool..., or the arrogant liar...