Yet another analyst :)

[ArticMine]

lucif bud, I'm still waiting for bitcoin to fall below $15 when's it going to happen this time?

When current wave up finished (off the $1.99 low)

It is possible that the we do not drop as low as 15 USD in the next bear marker / correction. Consider this a rise to 100 USD followed by a crash to say 39 USD. One still has a very decent bear market, 61% down, but those who sold at 15 USD are still left out in the cold.

[lucif]

Standard deviation of current weekly rally (bollinger band) allows price fluctuations down to $3.19

And as long as price closes above BB, lower limit is going even lower.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zigWeeklyztgSzbgBza1gSMAzm1g10za2gSMAzm2g20

I understand your bullish emotions Clear sky and so on. But this usually followed by great depression Such talks were in May 2011. No one couldn't imagine that price will go to $2.

[ArticMine]

... and what were the bullish emotions like when Bitcoin first broke the 1 USD barrier in February 2011? If someone had sold right at the top of that bull market they would be at a loss if they bought right at the bottom of the 2012 bear market.

[Odalv]

I understand your bullish emotions Clear sky and so on. But this usually followed by great depression Such talks were in May 2011. No one couldn't imagine that price will go to $2.

wait until 3 digits and more ... :-) maybe I'll sell you.

[molecular]

... and what were the bullish emotions like when Bitcoin first broke the 1 USD barrier in February 2011? If someone had sold right at the top of that bull market they would be at a loss if they bought right at the bottom of the 2012 bear market.

*turns into FUD-spreading bear* theoretically, the market could still "correct" from that insane hyped-up bull move above $1 and ever more insanely beyond and bitcoin can drop back to it's "fair" value of $0.01. *morphs back into bull*

The funny thing is: should something like that happen, most people calling for "cheaper coins so they can buy more", wouldn't even spend the 21 bucks necessary to get into Vladimirs Club.

[StarenseN]

I can't wait APPL to drop below 5$ before buying!



Seriously bears... What the fud are you spreading ?!

[lucif]

One more resistance call

Log scale trend line from $1.99 low. We are topping according to this. The top at ~38 is also fibonacci-like number. This high will be at least good resistance, at most - reversal point.

[goodlord666]

And you do this absolutely for free? I'm amazed!

You should start selling tickets to this.

Srsly.

[lucif]

I need to throw away some part of my thoughts to make things in my head in order This is all not a full picture i see.

Also, I still learning. It is not fair to ask money for predictions without good expirence.

[goodlord666]

I need to throw away some part of my thoughts to make things in my head in order This is all not a full picture i see.

Also, I still learning. It is not fair to ask money for predictions without good expirence.

That's not a prob! You'll improve over time.

May I recommend looking for tight squeezes in the Bollinger Band. They usually indicate larger movement.

I really think you should focus more on Bollinger Bands.

[cypherdoc]

I need to throw away some part of my thoughts to make things in my head in order This is all not a full picture i see.

Also, I still learning. It is not fair to ask money for predictions without good expirence.

the very best place to learn is the US stock market.  i'm in there all day, everyday on 1 min streaming real charts and playing with my own real money.  i'm constantly streaming through dozens (hundreds?) of charts on my screens before me.  

there, you will find every snake, criminal, pumper, dumper, momo chasing, bot, HFT, and sheister in the world trying to steal your money.  even Bennie f*ck himself is in there distorting things i'm sure.  from my screenshots i'm sure you can tell i play for real.

i've often likened it to one big symphony with me at the front with or as the conductor.  the trick is to interpret/time which section is due to play next.  oftentimes they get severely out of tune.  and for prolonged periods of time.  but eventually they get back into sync.  and then the music can play on.  with time and experience, you learn to predict what notes will ring loudest, truest, and when.

during the trading day i'm paying even more attention to that than Bitcoin.  but i know they're correlated in fundamental ways which is part of the reason i started the letter.  

i'll never stop laughing at the idiots who come in here and say we're in our own little sandbox oblivious to real world events.

[oakpacific]

All right，if you really believe so much that history tells anything about future, then how long is this crash going to take? According to the history, it took 5 full months for the price to plunge from $31 to $2, that's an awful lot of time for me and my bullish friends to cash out, even 1/10 of that amount of time is way more than enough. So by the time we finish taking our profits, we could just spare maybe 1/3-1/5 of our profits to buy back those cheap coins at-only $2! Wow! Life looks so good if your plan really works out! Thank you lucif!

[myself]

All right，if you really believe so much that history tells anything about future, then how long is this crash going to take?

I expect 1-1,6 years correction

[lucif]

Megaphone on hourly macd (results in hard bearish reversal eventually)

[siulynot]

Megaphone on hourly macd (results in hard bearish reversal eventually)

Nice observation 

[lucif]

Daily and weekly close above all time high. Daily macd hook. This is too bullish (mid term).

[lucif]

In short term receiving red signals. 31.9 retest comming on board.

[lucif]

<thoughts>
There is no rise or fall of price - only enter or exit points
</thoughts>

[lucif]

never-ending diagonal   hehe

However 38 is noticable resistance.

[maxll]

never-ending diagonal  hehe

Link please.