Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com

[brishtiteveja]

Check out what your kncminer will reward you..
Rough estimation/future prediction..
Originally from this thread.. Finding any mistake will be appreciated..

Assumptions:
    1. Static difficulty increase.
    2. BTC/USD rate  1BTC/120USD
(These assumptions may turn to be false, but they are true for now, can be worse)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232670.0;topicseen
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjEbQ5LBKsAEdDYtajZTMi1Ua0ZkUXR0X0NKSnVaSXc#gid=0


Thank you..

   Bitcoin Time vs. Difficulty         N = (h * t)/(2^32 * D)     
         1 Tera Hash/sec = 10^12 Hash/sec   Number of Blocks per day   Number of Blocks per day   
Date   Increase(%)   Difficulty Level(D)   Network Hash Rate= D * 2^32/600    KNCMiner Jupiter(350GH/s)    KNCMiner Saturn(175GH/s)   
5-Feb   10.33   3,651,012   26,134,961,895,506    1.928451252   0.964225626   
18-Feb   11.47   4,367,876   31,266,474,288,306    1.611950217   0.805975108   
1-Mar   19.63   4,847,647   34,700,808,879,254    1.452415711   0.726207855   
14-Mar   10.98   6,695,826   47,930,589,482,844    1.051520554   0.525760277   
24-Mar   38.13   7,673,000   54,925,473,437,013    0.91760702   0.45880351   
5-Apr   14.59   8,974,296   64,240,513,041,039    0.784551642   0.392275821   
17-Apr   12.28   10,076,293   72,128,914,833,190    0.698748901   0.349374451   
30-Apr   12.28   11,187,257   80,081,504,911,579    0.629358802   0.314679401   
12-May   11.03   11,187,257   80,081,504,911,579    0.629358802   0.314679401   
25-May   8.64   12,153,412   86,997,511,791,357    0.579326914   0.289663457   
5-Jun   28.41   15,605,633   111,709,472,280,631    0.451170335   0.225585167   
   16.16090909               
       Payout=(Sum of Bitcoins per day in a range)*11day*25BTC* 120USD      354237.1849   177118.5925   
                                                                 USD                                                               USD   
                 
                 
                 
   Future Prediction with average 15% difficulty increase per 11 day         Number of Blocks per day   Number of Blocks per day   
Date   Change   Difficulty(D)   Network Hash Rate= D * 2^32/600    KNCMiner Jupiter(350GH/s)    KNCMiner Saturn(175GH/s)   
5-Jun   28.41%   15,605,633   111,709,472,280,631    0.451170335   0.225585167   Year 2013
16-Jun   15.00%   17,946,478   128,465,893,480,639    0.392322029   0.196161015   
27-Jun   15.00%   20,638,450    147,735,777,502,735    0.341149591   0.170574795   
8-Jul   15.00%   23,734,217    169,896,144,128,145    0.296651818   0.148325909   
19-Jul   15.00%   27,294,350    195,380,565,747,367    0.257958102   0.128979051   
30-Jul   15.00%   31,388,502    224,687,650,609,472    0.224311393   0.112155697   
10-Aug   15.00%   36,096,778    258,390,798,200,893    0.195053386   0.097526693   
21-Aug   15.00%   41,511,294    297,149,417,931,027    0.16961164   0.08480582   
1-Sep   15.00%   47,737,988    341,721,830,620,681    0.147488382   0.073744191   
12-Sep   15.00%   54,898,687    392,980,105,213,783    0.128250767   0.064125384   
23-Sep   15.00%   63,133,489    451,927,120,995,850    0.111522406   0.055761203   
4-Oct   15.00%   72,603,513    519,716,189,145,228    0.096976005   0.048488003   
15-Oct   15.00%   83,494,040    597,673,617,517,012    0.084326961   0.042163481   
26-Oct   15.00%   96,018,146    687,324,660,144,564    0.073327792   0.036663896   
6-Nov   15.00%   110,420,868    790,423,359,166,249    0.063763298   0.031881649   
17-Nov   15.00%   126,983,998    908,986,863,041,186    0.055446346   0.027723173   
28-Nov   15.00%   146,031,598    1,045,334,892,497,360    0.048214214   0.024107107   
9-Dec   15.00%   167,936,337    1,202,135,126,371,970    0.041925403   0.020962702   
20-Dec   15.00%   193,126,788    1,382,455,395,327,760    0.036456872   0.018228436   
31-Dec   15.00%   222,095,806    1,589,823,704,626,930    0.031701628   0.015850814   Year 2013 ends
11-Jan   15.00%   255,410,177    1,828,297,260,320,970    0.027566633   0.013783317   Year 2014 starts
22-Jan   15.00%   293,721,703    2,102,541,849,369,110    0.023970985   0.011985493   
2-Feb   15.00%   337,779,959    2,417,923,126,774,480    0.020844335   0.010422168   
13-Feb   15.00%   388,446,953    2,780,611,595,790,650    0.018125509   0.009062754   
24-Feb   15.00%   446,713,995    3,197,703,335,159,250    0.015761312   0.007880656   
7-Mar   15.00%   513,721,095    3,677,358,835,433,140    0.013705489   0.006852744   
18-Mar   15.00%   590,779,259    4,228,962,660,748,110    0.011917816   0.005958908   
29-Mar   15.00%   679,396,148    4,863,307,059,860,320    0.010363318   0.005181659   
9-Apr   15.00%   781,305,570    5,592,803,118,839,370    0.009011581   0.004505791   
20-Apr   15.00%   898,501,405    6,431,723,586,665,280    0.007836158   0.003918079   
1-May   15.00%   1,033,276,616    7,396,482,124,665,070    0.00681405   0.003407025   
12-May   15.00%   1,188,268,109    8,505,954,443,364,830    0.005925261   0.00296263   
23-May   15.00%   1,366,508,325    9,781,847,609,869,560    0.005152401   0.0025762   
3-Jun   15.00%   1,571,484,574    11,249,124,751,350,000    0.004480349   0.002240174   
14-Jun   15.00%   1,807,207,260    12,936,493,464,052,500    0.003895955   0.001947978   
25-Jun   15.00%   2,078,288,349    14,876,967,483,660,400    0.003387787   0.001693894   
6-Jul   15.00%   2,390,031,601    17,108,512,606,209,400    0.002945902   0.001472951   
17-Jul   15.00%   2,748,536,341    19,674,789,497,140,800    0.002561654   0.001280827   
28-Jul   15.00%   3,160,816,793    22,626,007,921,711,900    0.002227525   0.001113763   
8-Aug   15.00%   3,634,939,312    26,019,909,109,968,700    0.001936978   0.000968489   
19-Aug   15.00%   4,180,180,208    29,922,895,476,464,000    0.001684329   0.000842164   
30-Aug   15.00%   4,807,207,240    34,411,329,797,933,700    0.001464634   0.000732317   
10-Sep   15.00%   5,528,288,325    39,573,029,267,623,700    0.001273595   0.000636797   
21-Sep   15.00%   6,357,531,574    45,508,983,657,767,300    0.001107474   0.000553737   
2-Oct   15.00%   7,311,161,310    52,335,331,206,432,400    0.000963021   0.00048151   
13-Oct   15.00%   8,407,835,507    60,185,630,887,397,200    0.000837409   0.000418705   
24-Oct   15.00%   9,669,010,833    69,213,475,520,506,800    0.000728182   0.000364091   
4-Nov   15.00%   11,119,362,458    79,595,496,848,582,800    0.000633202   0.000316601   
15-Nov   15.00%   12,787,266,827    91,534,821,375,870,200    0.00055061   0.000275305   
26-Nov   15.00%   14,705,356,851    105,265,044,582,251,000    0.000478791   0.000239396   
7-Dec   15.00%   16,911,160,378    121,054,801,269,588,000    0.00041634   0.00020817   
18-Dec   15.00%   19,447,834,435    139,213,021,460,027,000    0.000362035   0.000181018   
29-Dec   15.00%   22,365,009,600    160,094,974,679,031,000    0.000314813   0.000157407   Year 2014 ends
                 
Future Prediction with average 10% difficulty increase                              Payout   13464.36166   3526.78365   
            Number of Blocks per day   Number of Blocks per day   
Date   Change   Difficulty(D)   Network Hash Rate= D * 2^32/600    KNCMiner Jupiter(350GH/s)    KNCMiner Saturn(175GH/s)   
5-Jun   28.41%   15,605,633   111,709,472,280,631    0.451170335   0.225585167   Year 2013 starts
16-Jun   10%   17,166,196    122,880,419,508,694    0.41015485   0.205077425   
27-Jun   10%   18,882,816    135,168,461,459,563    0.372868045   0.186434023   
8-Jul   10%   20,771,098    148,685,307,605,519    0.33897095   0.169485475   
19-Jul   10%   22,848,207    163,553,838,366,071    0.308155409   0.154077705   
30-Jul   10%   25,133,028    179,909,222,202,678    0.280141281   0.140070641   
10-Aug   10%   27,646,331    197,900,144,422,946    0.254673892   0.127336946   
21-Aug   10%   30,410,964    217,690,158,865,241    0.23152172   0.11576086   
1-Sep   10%   33,452,060    239,459,174,751,765    0.210474291   0.105237145   
12-Sep   10%   36,797,266    263,405,092,226,941    0.191340264   0.095670132   
23-Sep   10%   40,476,993    289,745,601,449,635    0.173945695   0.086972847   
4-Oct   10%   44,524,692    318,720,161,594,599    0.15813245   0.079066225   
15-Oct   10%   48,977,161    350,592,177,754,059    0.143756773   0.071878386   
26-Oct   10%   53,874,878    385,651,395,529,465    0.130687975   0.065343988   
6-Nov   10%   59,262,365    424,216,535,082,411    0.11880725   0.059403625   
17-Nov   10%   65,188,602    466,638,188,590,653    0.108006591   0.054003296   
28-Nov   10%   71,707,462    513,302,007,449,718    0.09818781   0.049093905   
9-Dec   10%   78,878,208    564,632,208,194,690    0.089261645   0.044630823   
20-Dec   10%   86,766,029    621,095,429,014,159    0.08114695   0.040573475   
31-Dec   10%   95,442,632    683,204,971,915,575    0.073769955   0.036884977   Year 2014 starts
11-Jan   10%   104,986,895    751,525,469,107,132    0.067063595   0.033531798   
22-Jan   10%   115,485,585    826,678,016,017,845    0.060966905   0.030483452   
2-Feb   10%   127,034,143    909,345,817,619,630    0.055424459   0.02771223   
13-Feb   10%   139,737,558    1,000,280,399,381,590    0.050385872   0.025192936   
24-Feb   10%   153,711,313    1,100,308,439,319,750    0.045805338   0.022902669   
7-Mar   10%   169,082,445    1,210,339,283,251,730    0.041641216   0.020820608   
18-Mar   10%   185,990,689    1,331,373,211,576,900    0.037855651   0.018927826   
29-Mar   10%   204,589,758    1,464,510,532,734,590    0.034414228   0.017207114   
9-Apr   10%   225,048,734    1,610,961,586,008,050    0.031285662   0.015642831   
20-Apr   10%   247,553,607    1,772,057,744,608,850    0.028441511   0.014220756   
1-May   10%   272,308,968    1,949,263,519,069,740    0.025855919   0.01292796   
12-May   10%   299,539,865    2,144,189,870,976,710    0.023505381   0.011752691   
23-May   10%   329,493,851    2,358,608,858,074,380    0.021368528   0.010684264   
3-Jun   10%   362,443,236    2,594,469,743,881,820    0.019425935   0.009712967   
14-Jun   10%   398,687,560    2,853,916,718,270,010    0.017659941   0.00882997   
25-Jun   10%   438,556,316    3,139,308,390,097,010    0.016054492   0.008027246   
6-Jul   10%   482,411,947    3,453,239,229,106,710    0.014594992   0.007297496   
17-Jul   10%   530,653,142    3,798,563,152,017,380    0.013268175   0.006634087   
28-Jul   10%   583,718,456    4,178,419,467,219,110    0.012061977   0.006030989   
8-Aug   10%   642,090,302    4,596,261,413,941,030    0.010965434   0.005482717   
19-Aug   10%   706,299,332    5,055,887,555,335,130    0.009968576   0.004984288   
30-Aug   10%   776,929,265    5,561,476,310,868,640    0.009062342   0.004531171   
10-Sep   10%   854,622,192    6,117,623,941,955,500    0.008238493   0.004119246   
21-Sep   10%   940,084,411    6,729,386,336,151,060    0.007489539   0.003744769   
2-Oct   10%   1,034,092,852    7,402,324,969,766,160    0.006808672   0.003404336   
13-Oct   10%   1,137,502,138    8,142,557,466,742,780    0.006189701   0.003094851   
24-Oct   10%   1,251,252,351    8,956,813,213,417,060    0.005627001   0.002813501   
4-Nov   10%   1,376,377,586    9,852,494,534,758,760    0.005115456   0.002557728   
15-Nov   10%   1,514,015,345    10,837,743,988,234,600    0.004650414   0.002325207   
26-Nov   10%   1,665,416,880    11,921,518,387,058,100    0.004227649   0.002113825   
7-Dec   10%   1,831,958,568    13,113,670,225,763,900    0.003843318   0.001921659   
18-Dec   10%   2,015,154,424    14,425,037,248,340,300    0.003493925   0.001746963   
29-Dec   10%   2,216,669,867    15,867,540,973,174,300    0.003176296   0.001588148   Year 2014 ends
                          Payout   25350.36299   12675.1815   
                 
                 
                 
Prediction with 20% Difficulty increase per day                   
                 
            Number of Blocks per day   Number of Blocks per day   
Date   Change   Difficulty(D)   Network Hash Rate= D * 2^32/600    KNCMiner Jupiter(350GH/s)    KNCMiner Saturn(175GH/s)   
5-Jun   28.41%   15,605,633   111,709,472,280,631    0.451170335   0.225585167   
16-Jun   20%   18,726,760    134,051,366,736,757    0.375975279   0.187987639   
27-Jun   20%   22,472,112    160,861,640,084,108    0.313312732   0.156656366   
8-Jul   20%   26,966,534    193,033,968,100,930    0.261093944   0.130546972   
19-Jul   20%   32,359,841    231,640,761,721,116    0.217578286   0.108789143   
30-Jul   20%   38,831,809    277,968,914,065,339    0.181315239   0.090657619   
10-Aug   20%   46,598,170    333,562,696,878,407    0.151096032   0.075548016   
21-Aug   20%   55,917,805    400,275,236,254,088    0.12591336   0.06295668   
1-Sep   20%   67,101,365    480,330,283,504,906    0.1049278   0.0524639   
12-Sep   20%   80,521,639    576,396,340,205,887    0.087439833   0.043719917   
23-Sep   20%   96,625,966    691,675,608,247,064    0.072866528   0.036433264   
4-Oct   20%   115,951,159    830,010,729,896,477    0.060722107   0.030361053   
15-Oct   20%   139,141,391    996,012,875,875,772    0.050601755   0.025300878   
26-Oct   20%   166,969,670    1,195,215,451,050,930    0.04216813   0.021084065   
6-Nov   20%   200,363,604    1,434,258,541,261,110    0.035140108   0.017570054   
17-Nov   20%   240,436,324    1,721,110,249,513,330    0.029283423   0.014641712   
28-Nov   20%   288,523,589    2,065,332,299,416,000    0.024402853   0.012201426   
9-Dec   20%   346,228,307    2,478,398,759,299,200    0.020335711   0.010167855   
20-Dec   20%   415,473,968    2,974,078,511,159,040    0.016946426   0.008473213   
31-Dec   20%   498,568,762    3,568,894,213,390,850    0.014122021   0.007061011   
11-Jan   20%   598,282,515    4,282,673,056,069,020    0.011768351   0.005884176   
22-Jan   20%   717,939,017    5,139,207,667,282,820    0.009806959   0.00490348   
2-Feb   20%   861,526,821    6,167,049,200,739,390    0.008172466   0.004086233   
13-Feb   20%   1,033,832,185    7,400,459,040,887,270    0.006810388   0.003405194   
24-Feb   20%   1,240,598,622    8,880,550,849,064,720    0.005675324   0.002837662   
7-Mar   20%   1,488,718,347    10,656,661,018,877,700    0.004729436   0.002364718   
18-Mar   20%   1,786,462,016    12,787,993,222,653,200    0.003941197   0.001970598   
29-Mar   20%   2,143,754,419    15,345,591,867,183,800    0.003284331   0.001642165   
9-Apr   20%   2,572,505,303    18,414,710,240,620,600    0.002736942   0.001368471   
20-Apr   20%   3,087,006,363    22,097,652,288,744,700    0.002280785   0.001140393   
1-May   20%   3,704,407,636    26,517,182,746,493,700    0.001900654   0.000950327   
12-May   20%   4,445,289,163    31,820,619,295,792,400    0.001583879   0.000791939   
23-May   20%   5,334,346,996    38,184,743,154,950,900    0.001319899   0.000659949   
3-Jun   20%   6,401,216,395    45,821,691,785,941,100    0.001099916   0.000549958   
14-Jun   20%   7,681,459,674    54,986,030,143,129,300    0.000916596   0.000458298   
25-Jun   20%   9,217,751,609    65,983,236,171,755,100    0.00076383   0.000381915   
6-Jul   20%   11,061,301,931    79,179,883,406,106,200    0.000636525   0.000318263   
17-Jul   20%   13,273,562,317    95,015,860,087,327,400    0.000530438   0.000265219   
28-Jul   20%   15,928,274,780    114,019,032,104,793,000    0.000442031   0.000221016   
8-Aug   20%   19,113,929,736    136,822,838,525,751,000    0.00036836   0.00018418   
19-Aug   20%   22,936,715,684    164,187,406,230,902,000    0.000306966   0.000153483   
30-Aug   20%   27,524,058,820    197,024,887,477,082,000    0.000255805   0.000127903   
10-Sep   20%   33,028,870,584    236,429,864,972,498,000    0.000213171   0.000106586   
21-Sep   20%   39,634,644,701    283,715,837,966,998,000    0.000177643   8.88213E-05   
2-Oct   20%   47,561,573,641    340,459,005,560,398,000    0.000148035   7.40177E-05   
13-Oct   20%   57,073,888,370    408,550,806,672,477,000    0.000123363   6.16814E-05   
24-Oct   20%   68,488,666,044    490,260,968,006,973,000    0.000102802   5.14012E-05   
4-Nov   20%   82,186,399,252    588,313,161,608,367,000    8.56687E-05   4.28343E-05   
15-Nov   20%   98,623,679,103    705,975,793,930,041,000    7.13905E-05   3.56953E-05   
26-Nov   20%   118,348,414,923    847,170,952,716,049,000    5.94921E-05   2.97461E-05   
7-Dec   20%   142,018,097,908    1,016,605,143,259,260,000    4.95768E-05   2.47884E-05   
18-Dec   20%   170,421,717,490    1,219,926,171,911,110,000    4.1314E-05   2.0657E-05   
29-Dec   20%   204,506,060,988    1,463,911,406,293,330,000    3.44283E-05   1.72142E-05   
                          Payout   3991.297484   2398.295812   
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
Prediction with 25% Difficulty increase per day                   
                 
            Number of Blocks per day   Number of Blocks per day   
Date   Change   Difficulty(D)   Network Hash Rate= D * 2^32/600    KNCMiner Jupiter(350GH/s)    KNCMiner Saturn(175GH/s)   
5-Jun   28.41%   15,605,633   111,709,472,280,631    0.451170335   0.225585167   
16-Jun   25%   19,507,041    139,636,840,350,788    0.360936268   0.180468134   
27-Jun   25%   24,383,802    174,546,050,438,485    0.288749014   0.144374507   
8-Jul   25%   30,479,752    218,182,563,048,107    0.230999211   0.115499606   
19-Jul   25%   38,099,690    272,728,203,810,133    0.184799369   0.092399685   
30-Jul   25%   47,624,612    340,910,254,762,667    0.147839495   0.073919748   
10-Aug   25%   59,530,766    426,137,818,453,333    0.118271596   0.059135798   
21-Aug   25%   74,413,457    532,672,273,066,667    0.094617277   0.047308638   
1-Sep   25%   93,016,821    665,840,341,333,333    0.075693822   0.037846911   
12-Sep   25%   116,271,026    832,300,426,666,667    0.060555057   0.030277529   
23-Sep   25%   145,338,783    1,040,375,533,333,330    0.048444046   0.024222023   
4-Oct   25%   181,673,479    1,300,469,416,666,670    0.038755237   0.019377618   
15-Oct   25%   227,091,849    1,625,586,770,833,330    0.031004189   0.015502095   
26-Oct   25%   283,864,811    2,031,983,463,541,670    0.024803351   0.012401676   
6-Nov   25%   354,831,013    2,539,979,329,427,080    0.019842681   0.009921341   
17-Nov   25%   443,538,767    3,174,974,161,783,850    0.015874145   0.007937072   
28-Nov   25%   554,423,458    3,968,717,702,229,820    0.012699316   0.006349658   
9-Dec   25%   693,029,323    4,960,897,127,787,270    0.010159453   0.005079726   
20-Dec   25%   866,286,654    6,201,121,409,734,090    0.008127562   0.004063781   
31-Dec   25%   1,082,858,317    7,751,401,762,167,610    0.00650205   0.003251025   
11-Jan   25%   1,353,572,896    9,689,252,202,709,520    0.00520164   0.00260082   
22-Jan   25%   1,691,966,120    12,111,565,253,386,900    0.004161312   0.002080656   
2-Feb   25%   2,114,957,650    15,139,456,566,733,600    0.003329049   0.001664525   
13-Feb   25%   2,643,697,063    18,924,320,708,417,000    0.00266324   0.00133162   
24-Feb   25%   3,304,621,328    23,655,400,885,521,300    0.002130592   0.001065296   
7-Mar   25%   4,130,776,661    29,569,251,106,901,600    0.001704473   0.000852237   
18-Mar   25%   5,163,470,826    36,961,563,883,627,000    0.001363579   0.000681789   
29-Mar   25%   6,454,338,532    46,201,954,854,533,800    0.001090863   0.000545431   
9-Apr   25%   8,067,923,165    57,752,443,568,167,200    0.00087269   0.000436345   
20-Apr   25%   10,084,903,956    72,190,554,460,209,000    0.000698152   0.000349076   
1-May   25%   12,606,129,946    90,238,193,075,261,200    0.000558522   0.000279261   
12-May   25%   15,757,662,432    112,797,741,344,077,000    0.000446817   0.000223409   
23-May   25%   19,697,078,040    140,997,176,680,096,000    0.000357454   0.000178727   
3-Jun   25%   24,621,347,550    176,246,470,850,120,000    0.000285963   0.000142982   
14-Jun   25%   30,776,684,437    220,308,088,562,650,000    0.000228771   0.000114385   
25-Jun   25%   38,470,855,547    275,385,110,703,312,000    0.000183016   9.15082E-05   
6-Jul   25%   48,088,569,433    344,231,388,379,140,000    0.000146413   7.32066E-05   
17-Jul   25%   60,110,711,792    430,289,235,473,925,000    0.000117131   5.85653E-05   
28-Jul   25%   75,138,389,740    537,861,544,342,406,000    9.37044E-05   4.68522E-05   
8-Aug   25%   93,922,987,174    672,326,930,428,008,000    7.49635E-05   3.74818E-05   
19-Aug   25%   117,403,733,968    840,408,663,035,010,000    5.99708E-05   2.99854E-05   
30-Aug   25%   146,754,667,460    1,050,510,828,793,760,000    4.79767E-05   2.39883E-05   
10-Sep   25%   183,443,334,325    1,313,138,535,992,200,000    3.83813E-05   1.91907E-05   
21-Sep   25%   229,304,167,906    1,641,423,169,990,250,000    3.07051E-05   1.53525E-05   
2-Oct   25%   286,630,209,883    2,051,778,962,487,820,000    2.4564E-05   1.2282E-05   
13-Oct   25%   358,287,762,354    2,564,723,703,109,770,000    1.96512E-05   9.82562E-06   
24-Oct   25%   447,859,702,942    3,205,904,628,887,210,000    1.5721E-05   7.8605E-06   
4-Nov   25%   559,824,628,678    4,007,380,786,109,020,000    1.25768E-05   6.2884E-06   
15-Nov   25%   699,780,785,847    5,009,225,982,636,270,000    1.00614E-05   5.03072E-06   
26-Nov   25%   874,725,982,309    6,261,532,478,295,340,000    8.04915E-06   4.02457E-06   
7-Dec   25%   1,093,407,477,886    7,826,915,597,869,170,000    6.43932E-06   3.21966E-06   
18-Dec   25%   1,366,759,347,357    9,783,644,497,336,470,000    5.15145E-06   2.57573E-06   
29-Dec   25%   1,708,449,184,197    12,229,555,621,670,600,000    4.12116E-06   2.06058E-06   
                          Payout   1671.24337   1045.160398   
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
Prediction with 30% Difficulty increase per day                   
                 
            Number of Blocks per day   Number of Blocks per day   
Date   Change   Difficulty(D)   Network Hash Rate= D * 2^32/600    KNCMiner Jupiter(350GH/s)    KNCMiner Saturn(175GH/s)   
5-Jun   28.41%   15,605,633   111,709,472,280,631    0.451170335   0.225585167   
16-Jun   30%   20,287,323    145,222,313,964,820    0.347054104   0.173527052   
27-Jun   30%   26,373,520    188,789,008,154,266    0.266964695   0.133482348   
8-Jul   30%   34,285,576    245,425,710,600,545    0.205357458   0.102678729   
19-Jul   30%   44,571,248    319,053,423,780,709    0.157967275   0.078983638   
30-Jul   30%   57,942,623    414,769,450,914,922    0.121513289   0.060756644   
10-Aug   30%   75,325,410    539,200,286,189,398    0.09347176   0.04673588   
21-Aug   30%   97,923,033    700,960,372,046,218    0.071901354   0.035950677   
1-Sep   30%   127,299,943    911,248,483,660,083    0.055308734   0.027654367   
12-Sep   30%   165,489,925    1,184,623,028,758,110    0.04254518   0.02127259   
23-Sep   30%   215,136,903    1,540,009,937,385,540    0.032727062   0.016363531   
4-Oct   30%   279,677,974    2,002,012,918,601,200    0.025174663   0.012587331   
15-Oct   30%   363,581,366    2,602,616,794,181,560    0.019365125   0.009682563   
26-Oct   30%   472,655,776    3,383,401,832,436,030    0.01489625   0.007448125   
6-Nov   30%   614,452,509    4,398,422,382,166,840    0.011458654   0.005729327   
17-Nov   30%   798,788,261    5,717,949,096,816,890    0.008814349   0.004407175   
28-Nov   30%   1,038,424,740    7,433,333,825,861,960    0.006780269   0.003390134   
9-Dec   30%   1,349,952,161    9,663,333,973,620,550    0.005215591   0.002607796   
20-Dec   30%   1,754,937,810    12,562,334,165,706,700    0.004011993   0.002005997   
31-Dec   30%   2,281,419,153    16,331,034,415,418,700    0.003086149   0.001543074   
11-Jan   30%   2,965,844,898    21,230,344,740,044,300    0.002373961   0.00118698   
22-Jan   30%   3,855,598,368    27,599,448,162,057,600    0.001826123   0.000913062   
2-Feb   30%   5,012,277,878    35,879,282,610,674,900    0.00140471   0.000702355   
13-Feb   30%   6,515,961,242    46,643,067,393,877,400    0.001080546   0.000540273   
24-Feb   30%   8,470,749,615    60,635,987,612,040,600    0.00083119   0.000415595   
7-Mar   30%   11,011,974,499    78,826,783,895,652,800    0.000639377   0.000319688   
18-Mar   30%   14,315,566,849    102,474,819,064,349,000    0.000491828   0.000245914   
29-Mar   30%   18,610,236,903    133,217,264,783,653,000    0.000378329   0.000189165   
9-Apr   30%   24,193,307,974    173,182,444,218,749,000    0.000291023   0.000145511   
20-Apr   30%   31,451,300,366    225,137,177,484,374,000    0.000223864   0.000111932   
1-May   30%   40,886,690,476    292,678,330,729,686,000    0.000172203   8.61014E-05   
12-May   30%   53,152,697,619    380,481,829,948,592,000    0.000132464   6.62318E-05   
23-May   30%   69,098,506,905    494,626,378,933,170,000    0.000101895   5.09475E-05   
3-Jun   30%   89,828,058,977    643,014,292,613,121,000    7.83808E-05   3.91904E-05   
14-Jun   30%   116,776,476,670    835,918,580,397,057,000    6.0293E-05   3.01465E-05   
25-Jun   30%   151,809,419,671    1,086,694,154,516,170,000    4.63792E-05   2.31896E-05   
6-Jul   30%   197,352,245,572    1,412,702,400,871,030,000    3.56763E-05   1.78382E-05   
17-Jul   30%   256,557,919,243    1,836,513,121,132,330,000    2.74433E-05   1.37217E-05   
28-Jul   30%   333,525,295,016    2,387,467,057,472,030,000    2.11102E-05   1.05551E-05   
8-Aug   30%   433,582,883,521    3,103,707,174,713,640,000    1.62386E-05   8.11932E-06   
19-Aug   30%   563,657,748,577    4,034,819,327,127,740,000    1.24913E-05   6.24563E-06   
30-Aug   30%   732,755,073,151    5,245,265,125,266,060,000    9.60867E-06   4.80433E-06   
10-Sep   30%   952,581,595,096    6,818,844,662,845,880,000    7.39128E-06   3.69564E-06   
21-Sep   30%   1,238,356,073,624    8,864,498,061,699,640,000    5.6856E-06   2.8428E-06   
2-Oct   30%   1,609,862,895,712    11,523,847,480,209,500,000    4.37354E-06   2.18677E-06   
13-Oct   30%   2,092,821,764,425    14,981,001,724,272,400,000    3.36426E-06   1.68213E-06   
24-Oct   30%   2,720,668,293,753    19,475,302,241,554,100,000    2.58789E-06   1.29395E-06   
4-Nov   30%   3,536,868,781,879    25,317,892,914,020,300,000    1.99069E-06   9.95343E-07   
15-Nov   30%   4,597,929,416,442    32,913,260,788,226,400,000    1.5313E-06   7.65649E-07   
26-Nov   30%   5,977,308,241,375    42,787,239,024,694,400,000    1.17792E-06   5.88961E-07   
7-Dec   30%   7,770,500,713,787    55,623,410,732,102,700,000    9.06093E-07   4.53047E-07   
18-Dec   30%   10,101,650,927,924    72,310,433,951,733,500,000    6.96995E-07   3.48497E-07   
29-Dec   30%   13,132,146,206,301    94,003,564,137,253,500,000    5.3615E-07   2.68075E-07   
                          Payout   745.016506   484.3826851   

[drazgor]

Quoted from the bitcoin site:

The difficulty is the measure of how difficult it is to find a new block compared to the easiest it can ever be. It is recalculated every 2016 blocks to a value such that the previous 2016 blocks would have been generated in exactly two weeks had everyone been mining at this difficulty

So a difficulty increase every 11 days seems a bit odd to me.

[organofcorti]

Quoted from the bitcoin site:

The difficulty is the measure of how difficult it is to find a new block compared to the easiest it can ever be. It is recalculated every 2016 blocks to a value such that the previous 2016 blocks would have been generated in exactly two weeks had everyone been mining at this difficulty

So a difficulty increase every 11 days seems a bit odd to me.

If the hashrate is constantly increasing, then difficulty will always lag since it's based on the previous 2016 blocks, not the upcoming future 2016 blocks. So there will be periods when many more or many fewer than expected blocks are solved. For example, last week over 1300 blocks were solved. If difficulty wasn't lagging, then only 1008 blocks would have been solved (ignoring variance).

[qiuness]

i appreciate the predictions but those carts are so hard to read... do you have them in excel or gdocs?

[sickpig]

i appreciate the predictions but those carts are so hard to read... do you have them in excel or gdocs?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjEbQ5LBKsAEdDYtajZTMi1Ua0ZkUXR0X0NKSnVaSXc#gid=0

[brishtiteveja]

@qiuness and others,
you can download the xls file from here:
http://brishtiteveja.com/Downloads/Timevsdifficulty.xlsx
I will appreciate if anyone edit any mistakes and extend this xls file with other data or graphs or so on.. And please update.. and post in my thread..
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232670.msg2459769#msg2459769
@drazgor,
       on average difficulty will be increased every 14 days almost
Date   Increase(%)   Difficulty Level(D)
2/5/2013   10.33            3651012
2/18/2013   11.47            4367876
3/1/2013   19.63            4847647
3/14/2013   10.98            6695826
3/24/2013   38.13      7673000
4/5/2013   14.59     8974296
4/17/2013   12.28    10076293
4/30/2013   12.28    11187257
5/12/2013   11.03    11187257
5/25/2013   8.64      12153412
6/5/2013   28.41           15605633
       16.16090909
                  ||
you can see the average increase in 16.16% from February 2nd upto June 6....
Why do you think the last big 28.41% increase? probably lots of guys got their BFLS and avalon mining devices !!!!

So every 11 day the difficulty is not going to be increased by a fixed (10/20/25/30) % , but on average it will be more than 10~15%. So for you in some weeks when the difficulty is low can be luckier...But difficulty will make that up in the next session.  

If difficulty: D
   Number of Found Blocks: N
   Total Network Hash Rate:H   =  time * hashrate of miners
For each hash the proability of solving a block is  1/(2^32 * D)   (Read the difficulty page from bitcoin wiki)

D = Maximum Target / Current Target

Current Target gets adjusted so that on average every 2 week the number of blocks found is 2016 (1 block in 10 minutes).
So, why difficulty increases some week? -  Because in the previous 2 week session, miners mined way more than 2016 blocks. But then the difficulty gets increased heavily. But even though, miners mine more than 2016 blocks (but comparatively less than the previous time).So this time difficulty gets increased slightly.. Then miners again mine way more than 2016 blocks with their new hash powers.. These go on and these will continue going on resulting huge network hash rate...

so the fixed increase is actually a rough estimation only.. but the picture will be the same..
It depends on you, which week you are mining..It may turn luckier for you but that won't go on forever..
Thank you.

[600watt]

payout   13464.36166 btc until end of 2014 for ONE jupiter at an average 15% difficulty increase every 11 days ?

Payout   1671.2433 btc until end of 2014 for ONE jupiter at an average 25% difficulty increase every 11 days ?

and the bitcoin value will...

let´s say 10-fold by that date...





edit: just noticed that this calulation assumed to have the jupiter start mining june 5th 2013

[johnyj]

Just use that 3600 coins per day devided by the total hash power, a rough estimation is that network will reach 1000TH by september, then 3.6 coin per day for 1TH hash power, 1.26 coin per day for a Jupiter, 2 months ROI on bitcoin, still better than GPU era

[Xialla]

1* https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-19
2* slightly modifications on webpage, it seems that there will be more products in the future. jupiter are saturn are "bestsellers" now.) cool

[sickpig]

Just use that 3600 coins per day devided by the total hash power, a rough estimation is that network will reach 1000TH by september, then 3.6 coin per day for 1TH hash power, 1.26 coin per day for a Jupiter, 2 months ROI on bitcoin

so you think that we will have 25% growth every 11 days till September. I guess it's time to share a few data points. Two weeks ago a I made i rough estimation of hashrate/difficulty based on data contained in this blog post this http://organofcorti.blogspot.it/2013/05/mine-planning-assistance.html, the relevant part is this one:

    ASICMiner:  23rd March to 31st December, 262 Thps added
    Avalon batch 2: 6th June to 30th June, 600 * 67 Ghps added
    Avalon batch 3: 1st July to 31st July, 500 * ( 67 + 85) / 2 Ghps added
    Avalon batch 4: 1st August to 31st August, 300*45 Ghps added
    Avalon chips: 1st August to 31st December, 20 Thps added
    BFL: 15th June to 31st December, 2 Thps added per day
    KnC: 15th September to 31st December, 1 Thps added per day
    GPU miners leave: 1 November to 31st December, 25 Thps subtracted

based on this i got a 55mil difficulty by Sep the 15th and 135mil on the 31th of Dec2013.

Since the time I did those estimates other players come in to play (e.g. bitfury) and maybe some of the data should be updated (e.g. Avalon chips 20 Tphs seems way to low).

I wonder if we can keep an up-to-date list of "future" Thps so that we can try to get a more precise estimate of future difficulty, does it seems feasible?

[organofcorti]

Just use that 3600 coins per day devided by the total hash power, a rough estimation is that network will reach 1000TH by september, then 3.6 coin per day for 1TH hash power, 1.26 coin per day for a Jupiter, 2 months ROI on bitcoin

so you think that we will have 25% growth every 11 days till September. I guess it's time to share a few data points. Two weeks ago a I made i rough estimation of hashrate/difficulty based on data contained in this blog post this http://organofcorti.blogspot.it/2013/05/mine-planning-assistance.html, the relevant part is this one:

    ASICMiner:  23rd March to 31st December, 262 Thps added
    Avalon batch 2: 6th June to 30th June, 600 * 67 Ghps added
    Avalon batch 3: 1st July to 31st July, 500 * ( 67 + 85) / 2 Ghps added
    Avalon batch 4: 1st August to 31st August, 300*45 Ghps added
    Avalon chips: 1st August to 31st December, 20 Thps added
    BFL: 15th June to 31st December, 2 Thps added per day
    KnC: 15th September to 31st December, 1 Thps added per day
    GPU miners leave: 1 November to 31st December, 25 Thps subtracted

based on this i got a 55mil difficulty by Sep the 15th and 135mil on the 31th of Dec2013.

Since the time I did those estimates other players come in to play (e.g. bitfury) and maybe some of the data should be updated (e.g. Avalon chips 20 Tphs seems way to low).

I wonder if we can keep an up-to-date list of "future" Thps so that we can try to get a more precise estimate of future difficulty, does it seems feasible?

You realise that was just an example, right? I have no idea how accurate it is. I apologise if the post mislead you. As the post mentioned, I'm happy to generate similar estimates based on your best guesses of hashrate deployment and quantity. I'm usually done within 24 hours, sometimes 48 hours.

[.m.]

my 'educated' guess is 1,000,000 Gh/sec at the end of September - see:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=228964.msg2456837#msg2456837
What do you think ? Critics welcome.

[sickpig]

Just use that 3600 coins per day devided by the total hash power, a rough estimation is that network will reach 1000TH by september, then 3.6 coin per day for 1TH hash power, 1.26 coin per day for a Jupiter, 2 months ROI on bitcoin

so you think that we will have 25% growth every 11 days till September. I guess it's time to share a few data points. Two weeks ago a I made i rough estimation of hashrate/difficulty based on data contained in this blog post this http://organofcorti.blogspot.it/2013/05/mine-planning-assistance.html, the relevant part is this one:

    ASICMiner:  23rd March to 31st December, 262 Thps added
    Avalon batch 2: 6th June to 30th June, 600 * 67 Ghps added
    Avalon batch 3: 1st July to 31st July, 500 * ( 67 + 85) / 2 Ghps added
    Avalon batch 4: 1st August to 31st August, 300*45 Ghps added
    Avalon chips: 1st August to 31st December, 20 Thps added
    BFL: 15th June to 31st December, 2 Thps added per day
    KnC: 15th September to 31st December, 1 Thps added per day
    GPU miners leave: 1 November to 31st December, 25 Thps subtracted

based on this i got a 55mil difficulty by Sep the 15th and 135mil on the 31th of Dec2013.

Since the time I did those estimates other players come in to play (e.g. bitfury) and maybe some of the data should be updated (e.g. Avalon chips 20 Tphs seems way to low).

I wonder if we can keep an up-to-date list of "future" Thps so that we can try to get a more precise estimate of future difficulty, does it seems feasible?

You realise that was just an example, right? I have no idea how accurate it is. I apologise if the post mislead you. As the post mentioned, I'm happy to generate similar estimates based on your best guesses of hashrate deployment and quantity. I'm usually done within 24 hours, sometimes 48 hours.

Yep I do realize it and don't worry you didn't mislead me :-)

I just borrow your summary as a starting point in such a way that all interested people could contribute to achieve a more accurate estimates of total hashrate and hence getting a more precise difficulty estimate. just simple as that.

Regarding your offer, as you could understand, I'm more interested in a service that provide hashrate estimates. If you plan to offer such a product lets talk about it

as a side note I really do like the bitcoin mining pool and network analysis you share in your blog. extremely useful.

[RoadStress]

my 'educated' guess is 1,000,000 Gh/sec at the end of September - see:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=228964.msg2456837#msg2456837
What do you think ? Critics welcome.

Please keep this thread on topic. There are other threads to discuss difficulty predictions!

[cheech300]

payout   13464.36166 btc until end of 2014 for ONE jupiter at an average 15% difficulty increase every 11 days ?

Payout   1671.2433 btc until end of 2014 for ONE jupiter at an average 25% difficulty increase every 11 days ?

and the bitcoin value will...

let´s say 10-fold by that date...





edit: just noticed that this calulation assumed to have the jupiter start mining june 5th 2013

+1

[sickpig]

edit: just noticed that this calulation assumed to have the jupiter start mining june 5th 2013

those 13464.36166 are the USD you'd get mining from November the 17th 2013 to July 17th 2014 in case of a 15% constant difficulty growth rate and exchange ratio of 1 BTC for 120 USD.

[organofcorti]

Yep I do realize it and don't worry you didn't mislead me :-)

I just borrow your summary as a starting point in such a way that all interested people could contribute to achieve a more accurate estimates of total hashrate and hence getting a more precise difficulty estimate. just simple as that.

Regarding your offer, as you could understand, I'm more interested in a service that provide hashrate estimates. If you plan to offer such a product lets talk about it

I understand. I simply don't have time to keep track of all the sources of new hashes at the moment. I like your idea of a centralised 'up-to-date list of "future" Thps'. If everyone contributed what they knew, a reasonably accurate consensus might emerge.

as a side note I really do like the bitcoin mining pool and network analysis you share in your blog. extremely useful.

Thanks! Glad you like it.

[klee]

This is funny. There are many scams, but so far there is nothing to suggest KNC is a scam, infact, quite to the contrary.
...

Then you didn't read the complete bullshit in their very first post:

...
We will in the upcoming weeks opening our order book to allow the purchase of our first set of ASIC miners. They are in the early stages of development now and will be ready in the summer of 2013 (yes in just a few months)
...

Hey fat ass - you shame martial artists.
Hide your katana and go to learn some real fighting techniques like Tobimina Balintawak.
Asshole...

[organofcorti]

This is funny. There are many scams, but so far there is nothing to suggest KNC is a scam, infact, quite to the contrary.
...

Then you didn't read the complete bullshit in their very first post:

...
We will in the upcoming weeks opening our order book to allow the purchase of our first set of ASIC miners. They are in the early stages of development now and will be ready in the summer of 2013 (yes in just a few months)
...

Hey fat ass - you shame martial artists.
Hide your katana and go to learn some real fighting techniques like Tobimina Balintawak.
Asshole...

Well argued, that man!

Edit for clarity:

[sickpig]

Yep I do realize it and don't worry you didn't mislead me :-)

I just borrow your summary as a starting point in such a way that all interested people could contribute to achieve a more accurate estimates of total hashrate and hence getting a more precise difficulty estimate. just simple as that.

Regarding your offer, as you could understand, I'm more interested in a service that provide hashrate estimates. If you plan to offer such a product lets talk about it

I understand. I simply don't have time to keep track of all the sources of new hashes at the moment. I like your idea of a centralised 'up-to-date list of "future" Thps'. If everyone contributed what they knew, a reasonably accurate consensus might emerge.

glad that you like it.

I hope to find some time to implement this idea. In the meantime if you want to do it.. please be my guest