Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[lyth0s]

Explanation

Looks like the sell order depth is increasing? Or am I reading the chart wrong? I liked this graph much more:

Explanation

[oda.krell]

Yours is arbitrary because it uses all candle wicks but one for the trendline. Either you do it by closes, or you do it by high/lows, not both.

Actually, not sure if that's a 'hard rule' of trendlines.

Anyway, the triangle looks fine to me. Broke out upwards. Don't know what porcupine's problem is with it... I think he just doubts that TA could ever dominate fundamentals, news, sentiment, etc.

[seleme]

I can't make shit in this market, rather losing money in most of trades  

I want bull run, no need to think, it just goes up, up, up  

I miss making lot of money in single trades  , last few weeks were shit. Boring, haven't traded most of time but lost money pretty much each time I did.

[N12]

Yours is arbitrary because it uses all candle wicks but one for the trendline. Either you do it by closes, or you do it by high/lows, not both.

Actually, not sure if that's a 'hard rule' of trendlines.

Anyway, the triangle looks fine to me. Broke out upwards. Don't know what porcupine's problem is with it... I think he just doubts that TA could ever dominate fundamentals, news, sentiment, etc.

If there is an actual glitch in the exchange data or it is due to some form of illiquidity (then again, you don't chart illiquid exchanges), then that's ok, but it's a bad idea to assume you can say which is valid and invalid, which is to be included and which ignored. It's the same thing with news, you don't have a framework of judging that, so might as well draw some dinosaurs.

[porcupine87]

Maybe the graph above just looks arbitrarily. This graph is better. And what tells you that? That Bransen and other investors just sit there and drawing lines?
Here, this one works:

Yours is arbitrary because it uses all candle wicks but one for the trendline. Either you do it by closes, or you do it by high/lows, not both.

Hm I thought I used only the highs but now it seems, the january high doesn't fit. I mean I can put the lines to every nearly every place to get every triangle I want. Hm, but can you tell be which rules the graph follows which I criticized?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg6837593#msg6837593

[aminorex]

Almost. Dark coin is attempting to copy ring signature that is used by monero (my new favourite alt). Will be interesting if they can do it as it's not a copy paste integration.

It will require a hard fork.  Whether Evan can handle the politics remains to be seen.  It will take a while in any case.  Meanwhile MRO progresses rapidly.  However, less while tacotime is offline.  Therefore I think I shall write some code for this understaffed piece of social hacking serendipity.

[Adrian-x]

I was beginning to think that the one thing that could kill bitcoin would be boredom.

Good to see the patient still has a pulse

+1.  

You people need to look at the past and realize that congestions are always followed by large moves once the scale is tipped.

Not that hard, is it? Yet it always happens the same, because in humans, emotion drives reason and seldomly the other way around.

And of course, there are the "why did the price surge? any news? what happened? what about china?" cries. Because it couldn't be that price has a will of its own, as a manifestation of the consciousness of people around the world, and that there are some triggers that will incite movement. Nah, must be some NEWS.

Just wait. News will be found to fit the movement.

You may have missed it China and Russia sign an agreement to usurp the USD.
crypto is as a result more valuable as a medium of exchange.  

Well provided they settle in the Russian Ruble not Renminbi, as the RMB is linked to the USD anyway.

[N12]

Hm I thought I used only the highs but now it seems, the january high doesn't fit. I mean I can put the lines to every nearly every place to get every triangle I want. Hm, but can you tell be which rules the graph follows which I criticized?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg6837593#msg6837593

I can't say anything about a chart which has a trendline with only 1 contact point (it only goes back a month). I'm guessing it's a downtrend with points from earlier, but I'm not about to check.

[aminorex]

monero is bytecoin fork.

You say that like it's a bad thing, but bytecoin is a scam from beginning to end.  A scam wrapped around a nice algorithm.  Monero did the right thing, forked it to eliminate the scamminess, while preserving the nice algorithm.  Since then it has been seeing a lot of development in a very short time.  In fact, bytecoin has been taking more code from monero than monero has taken from bytecoin, since the fork.

[ChetnotAtkins]

Monero receives some intense pumping in here 

[porcupine87]

Yours is arbitrary because it uses all candle wicks but one for the trendline. Either you do it by closes, or you do it by high/lows, not both.

Actually, not sure if that's a 'hard rule' of trendlines.

Anyway, the triangle looks fine to me. Broke out upwards. Don't know what porcupine's problem is with it... I think he just doubts that TA could ever dominate fundamentals, news, sentiment, etc.

I have no problem. You can have fun with the TA. I admit that it is very tempting because it is much easier than FA. But I just don't see a causal realtionship between this chart analysis and the will of people to buy or sell.

I wanted to draw the same line and it seems, that I fucked up the last one. Here is the "real" triangle. Let's see, what happens.

[bitcoinsrus]

Monero receives some intense pumping in here 

and we all know what happens after a major pump

[Richy_T]

Explanation

Looks like the sell order depth is increasing? Or am I reading the chart wrong? I liked this graph much more:

Explanation

That one wall is the main difference. Whether it will stand or not is another question.

[oda.krell]

Yours is arbitrary because it uses all candle wicks but one for the trendline. Either you do it by closes, or you do it by high/lows, not both.

Actually, not sure if that's a 'hard rule' of trendlines.

Anyway, the triangle looks fine to me. Broke out upwards. Don't know what porcupine's problem is with it... I think he just doubts that TA could ever dominate fundamentals, news, sentiment, etc.

If there is an actual glitch in the exchange data or it is due to some form of illiquidity (then again, you don't chart illiquid exchanges), then that's ok, but it's a bad idea to assume you can say which is valid and invalid, which is to be included and which ignored. It's the same thing with news, you don't have a framework of judging that, so might as well draw some dinosaurs.

I really don't think I know this as a 'hard rule'. Can you find me a quote on it?

The way I understand it, there are two ways to go about trendlines, in the most general sense: 1) not allowing any violation (in which case, only candle extrema are possible points of contact), 2) minimizing the no. of violations and only allowing candles that /closed/ above the trendline.

In the latter case, you can mix up extrema and closing points of candles. But like I said, I can be corrected on this.

EDIT: to be clear, you don't declare entire candles as "outliers". you just accept a small number of violations through wicks, and no violations through close.

[oda.krell]

Yours is arbitrary because it uses all candle wicks but one for the trendline. Either you do it by closes, or you do it by high/lows, not both.

Actually, not sure if that's a 'hard rule' of trendlines.

Anyway, the triangle looks fine to me. Broke out upwards. Don't know what porcupine's problem is with it... I think he just doubts that TA could ever dominate fundamentals, news, sentiment, etc.

I have no problem. You can have fun with the TA. I admit that it is very tempting because it is much easier than FA. But I just don't see a causal realtionship between this chart analysis and the will of people to buy or sell.

I wanted to draw the same line and it seems, that I fucked up the last one. Here is the "real" triangle. Let's see, what happens.

Sure, your triangle looks good to me. You seem to work under the assumption that trendlines are like mythical immortal Scottish swordsmen (there can be only one!).

First, the other triangle was validated by a high volume move. Nothing to argue about. The triangle you drew has only two points of contact for the upper trendline, which makes it somewhat less likely to be motivated by something other than chance compared to the trendline with more points of contact.

EDIT possibly 3 points of contact. I think I remember drawing the line of resistance myself, but neglecting it after a while because price action didn't even get /near/ it for months.

The lower trendline is one that I do myself keep an eye on. I'm not sure yet if we won't revisit it.

[fonzie]

Bye bye Bitstamp & friends

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/05/20/more-bad-news-for-bitcoin/

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304422704579570132275301414?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304422704579570132275301414.html

It’s not yet clear which exchanges are being investigated in the new push, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday evening, but many exchanges including the Tokyo-based Mt. Gox have already received subpoenas.

“One of the people familiar with the matter said the investigation was at an early stage,” the Journal reported, “and conclusions hadn’t been reached as to whether the exchanges were connected with Silk Road.”


I´m pretty sure Bitstamp was one of them!
Cash out as long as you can! Don´t get stamped!
I´m pretty sure they will find a way to reach BTC-E too.
Funds will get frozen... years will go by. Dreams of crypto richness will be gone.
Amen

[N12]

The more contact points a trendline has, the more meaningful it is. There's no reason to go for a version that follows the price less closely over the same period.

Yours is arbitrary because it uses all candle wicks but one for the trendline. Either you do it by closes, or you do it by high/lows, not both.

Actually, not sure if that's a 'hard rule' of trendlines.

Anyway, the triangle looks fine to me. Broke out upwards. Don't know what porcupine's problem is with it... I think he just doubts that TA could ever dominate fundamentals, news, sentiment, etc.

If there is an actual glitch in the exchange data or it is due to some form of illiquidity (then again, you don't chart illiquid exchanges), then that's ok, but it's a bad idea to assume you can say which is valid and invalid, which is to be included and which ignored. It's the same thing with news, you don't have a framework of judging that, so might as well draw some dinosaurs.

I really don't think I know this as a 'hard rule'. Can you find me a quote on it?

The way I understand it, there are two ways to go about trendlines, in the most general sense: 1) not allowing any violation (in which case, only candle extrema are possible points of contact), 2) minimizing the no. of violations and only allowing candles that /closed/ above the trendline.

In the latter case, you can mix up extrema and closing points of candles. But like I said, I can be corrected on this.

http://www.babypips.com/school/elementary/support-and-resistance-levels/trend-lines.html

And most importantly, DO NOT EVER draw trend lines by forcing them to fit the market. If they do not fit right, then that trend line isn’t a valid one!

I suppose that can be interpreted such. I never read it anywhere, but it's my experience and it's the same way I approach all other things in technical analysis. If you start cherry picking, the only thing that will happen is for your bias to dominate the analysis. If you already know what is meaningful and what is meaningless, then you probably have no need for trendlines in the first place. The point is that once you judge the validity of data itself, then you have (except in special circumstances) departed from the realm of analysis and entered the realm of wishful thinking. You should take the data as is. But if it worked for you in the past, who am I to judge you?

The other things I'd say about trendlines aside from contact points and consistency is, like many other things, disregard all that is short term, because almost all of it is noise.

Bye bye Bitstamp & friends

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/05/20/more-bad-news-for-bitcoin/

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304422704579570132275301414?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304422704579570132275301414.html

It’s not yet clear which exchanges are being investigated in the new push, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday evening, but many exchanges including the Tokyo-based Mt. Gox have already received subpoenas.

“One of the people familiar with the matter said the investigation was at an early stage,” the Journal reported, “and conclusions hadn’t been reached as to whether the exchanges were connected with Silk Road.”


I´m pretty sure Bitstamp was one of them!
Cash out as long as you can! Don´t get stamped!
I´m pretty sure they will find a way to reach BTC-E too.

Holy shit. Time to buy and get your BTC off exchange.

[Bronstad]

.... don't quote the troll

[N12]

Would someone post the WSJ text please? Thanks.