Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

You're not alone. I also feel these stories are manufactured. It is not what I experience with other people.
Sure, some of them are in doubt, but others are at the brink of buying their first bitcoin because of my enthusiastic talk about it.

can you explain me how to explain the long decline to them? -20% in the last 30 days are not very enthusiastic...

+5% shorts in 24 hours could be an opportunity and the much needed momentum upwards...

look at the history broader than 30 days .. also look at the history broader than the last 9 months.  Maybe also explain diversification and only investing your comfort level rather than investing either balls to the wall or expectations to get rich quickly?  Even though you may be a trader or others may want to attempt to get rich through trading, most people lose a lot of money through trading and a more sound dollar cost averaging system should be contemplated and employed.. in other words buying and holding.. and investing in small increments.

[JayJuanGee]

NICE!!!!!!!   

[Tzupy]

4h MACD suggests no drop soon (dissapointing ), but moving first towards 500$. After that, we'll see...

[Teppino]

Also, what is the point in wasting fees by transacting over wallets with the same owner? Unless you prove metcalfe's law wrong the only achievement of such waste is to keep the price (value) of bitcoin high, so i take it you mean it's a speculative manipulation.
Even so, with a true wallet-to-many scenario (OpenBazaar) the percentage you are proposing here are doomed to shift.

Two obvious reasons why someone would want to move bitcoins between wallets of his own are (1) tumbling and (2) hotwallet/coldwallet management.  Someone may also be (3) torture-testing wallet software.  (All the blockchain traffic could easily be created by a single person with a modest BTC capital.)

Last time I checked, very few transactions included fees.  Right now the mining network is financed by "printing" new bitcoins, to the tune of 10% of the existing bitcoins per year.  (That is, 10% yearly inflation, in the strict sense of the term...)  Since address creation and transactions are free, there is nothing to discourage fake blockchain traffic.

Fake traffic may include also (4) intentional attempt to inflate the transaction volume.  Right now, if the cost of the mining network were to be paid by fees rather than "inflation tax", the fee would have to be nearly 4% of the total transaction amount.  But if fees were charged then the "fake" volume would all but disappear.  If only 50% of the transactions are real e-payments, then the cost of processing one transaction would be 8% of its amount; if only 10% is real, the cost would be 40%.  Thus someone may be inflating the volume to hide this unpleasant fact.

Some blockchain traffic is also (5) people depositing and withdrawing BTC from exchanges and other services with individual accounts.  Although that traffic is not "fake" by my defintion, it is still sort of fake because the BTC on the exchange still belong to the client, logically. 

(Bitcoins changing accounts inside the exchanged do not generate blockchain traffic, but they are not real e-payments either, since there is no counterpart transfer of goods or services -- merely a swap of one currency for another.)

Metcalfe's law seems to hold when the quantities are plotted in logscale over the last 5 years.  However, the last year is compressed to a tiny area at the top right corner of that plot.  At that scale, a deviation of 90% would hardly be noticed, since it would span less than 20% of the vertical scale.  If the data is plotted only over the last year, the fit is not that good.  And, anyway, if the traffic had been 90% "fake" over the last 5 years, Metcalfe's law would hold just as well.

I disagree on so many points that the implications of debating every single one of them really discourages me. Sorry Jorge i feel that's not a good behaviour from me to pull back like that and i apologize for that

[empowering]

Tit

Russia 'to alter military strategy towards Nato'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29026623


Tat

Ukraine crisis: Nato chief Rasmussen announces new force

He warned that the alliance could not "afford to be naive" over Russia - a country which he said considers Nato "an adversary".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29015841

http://www.nato.int/docu/update/2005/04-april/e0421b.htm 2005


tête-à-tête

Ukraine crisis: Russia calls for immediate ceasefire


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29010655

[h3speros]

This what you have in mind? Or something more short-term?

No. The small bullish one on the right. I estimate we get a small bounce back to 490 - 500.

You came here straight from ryans thread to estimate this? =D And btw. that odas divergent is bullish.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[razorramon]

You're not alone. I also feel these stories are manufactured. It is not what I experience with other people.
Sure, some of them are in doubt, but others are at the brink of buying their first bitcoin because of my enthusiastic talk about it.

can you explain me how to explain the long decline to them? -20% in the last 30 days are not very enthusiastic...

+5% shorts in 24 hours could be an opportunity and the much needed momentum upwards...

look at the history broader than 30 days .. also look at the history broader than the last 9 months.  Maybe also explain diversification and only investing your comfort level rather than investing either balls to the wall or expectations to get rich quickly?  Even though you may be a trader or others may want to attempt to get rich through trading, most people lose a lot of money through trading and a more sound dollar cost averaging system should be contemplated and employed.. in other words buying and holding.. and investing in small increments.

that's more or less what i always said...don't get me wrong with my bearishness...maybe a few percent and i'm bullish again...but right now after all the dumps and failed 'rallies' i am really disappointed...

short term i am really bearish, mid term stagnating at best, long term the chances are 30:70 against a bitcoin rise...

with that personal pov, the next time i meet some people to talk about bitcoins i will have to say that i lost a lot of money and maybe now is not a good entry point because more losses are expected

there really has to be a rise soon or mass market adoption will fail, cause everyone will consider bitcoin as too dangerous or will forget about it

i will hodl what is left but i will not consider buying more and i will explicitly make aware of the danger of losing all investments...i prefer that they say "why didn't you force me to buy" than "because of you i lost a shitload of money"

[empowering]

You're not alone. I also feel these stories are manufactured. It is not what I experience with other people.
Sure, some of them are in doubt, but others are at the brink of buying their first bitcoin because of my enthusiastic talk about it.

can you explain me how to explain the long decline to them? -20% in the last 30 days are not very enthusiastic...

+5% shorts in 24 hours could be an opportunity and the much needed momentum upwards...

look at the history broader than 30 days .. also look at the history broader than the last 9 months.  Maybe also explain diversification and only investing your comfort level rather than investing either balls to the wall or expectations to get rich quickly?  Even though you may be a trader or others may want to attempt to get rich through trading, most people lose a lot of money through trading and a more sound dollar cost averaging system should be contemplated and employed.. in other words buying and holding.. and investing in small increments.

that's more or less what i always said...don't get me wrong with my bearishness...maybe a few percent and i'm bullish again...but right now after all the dumps and failed 'rallies' i am really disappointed...

short term i am really bearish, mid term stagnating at best, long term the chances are 30:70 against a bitcoin rise...

with that personal pov, the next time i meet some people to talk about bitcoins i will have to say that i lost a lot of money and maybe now is not a good entry point because more losses are expected

there really has to be a rise soon or mass market adoption will fail, cause everyone will consider bitcoin as too dangerous or will forget about it

i will hodl what is left but i will not consider buying more and i will explicitly make aware of the danger of losing all investments...i prefer that they say "why didn't you force me to buy" than "because of you i lost a shitload of money"

When did you buy in? and how did you lose money?  did you buy high and sell low? or get margin called? how exactly did you lose a lot of money?

[JorgeStolfi]

Good try, but I find that proof somewhat unconvincing.  Is that the best you can do?   

As for Huobi, if you find it hard to disprove that 90% of the blockchain traffic is "fake", maybe you can provide evidence that any of Huobi's volume is "fake", in the same sense (a trader selling to himself).

[JorgeStolfi]

I disagree on so many points that the implications of debating every single one of them really discourages me. Sorry Jorge i feel that's not a good behaviour from me to pull back like that and i apologize for that

Too bad, I would like to know what is wrong with them.  Do you disagree with the numbers?

The total transaction fees, for example, seem to have been stuck at 10--15 BTC/day (not kBTC!) since December, and are slowly decreasing in fact:
https://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0

[razorramon]

You're not alone. I also feel these stories are manufactured. It is not what I experience with other people.
Sure, some of them are in doubt, but others are at the brink of buying their first bitcoin because of my enthusiastic talk about it.

can you explain me how to explain the long decline to them? -20% in the last 30 days are not very enthusiastic...

+5% shorts in 24 hours could be an opportunity and the much needed momentum upwards...

look at the history broader than 30 days .. also look at the history broader than the last 9 months.  Maybe also explain diversification and only investing your comfort level rather than investing either balls to the wall or expectations to get rich quickly?  Even though you may be a trader or others may want to attempt to get rich through trading, most people lose a lot of money through trading and a more sound dollar cost averaging system should be contemplated and employed.. in other words buying and holding.. and investing in small increments.

that's more or less what i always said...don't get me wrong with my bearishness...maybe a few percent and i'm bullish again...but right now after all the dumps and failed 'rallies' i am really disappointed...

short term i am really bearish, mid term stagnating at best, long term the chances are 30:70 against a bitcoin rise...

with that personal pov, the next time i meet some people to talk about bitcoins i will have to say that i lost a lot of money and maybe now is not a good entry point because more losses are expected

there really has to be a rise soon or mass market adoption will fail, cause everyone will consider bitcoin as too dangerous or will forget about it

i will hodl what is left but i will not consider buying more and i will explicitly make aware of the danger of losing all investments...i prefer that they say "why didn't you force me to buy" than "because of you i lost a shitload of money"

When did you buy in? and how did you lose money?  did you buy high and sell low? or get margin called? how exactly did you lose a lot of money?

i don't see a point in giving especially you more ammo to shoot at me

[empowering]

You're not alone. I also feel these stories are manufactured. It is not what I experience with other people.
Sure, some of them are in doubt, but others are at the brink of buying their first bitcoin because of my enthusiastic talk about it.

can you explain me how to explain the long decline to them? -20% in the last 30 days are not very enthusiastic...

+5% shorts in 24 hours could be an opportunity and the much needed momentum upwards...

look at the history broader than 30 days .. also look at the history broader than the last 9 months.  Maybe also explain diversification and only investing your comfort level rather than investing either balls to the wall or expectations to get rich quickly?  Even though you may be a trader or others may want to attempt to get rich through trading, most people lose a lot of money through trading and a more sound dollar cost averaging system should be contemplated and employed.. in other words buying and holding.. and investing in small increments.

that's more or less what i always said...don't get me wrong with my bearishness...maybe a few percent and i'm bullish again...but right now after all the dumps and failed 'rallies' i am really disappointed...

short term i am really bearish, mid term stagnating at best, long term the chances are 30:70 against a bitcoin rise...

with that personal pov, the next time i meet some people to talk about bitcoins i will have to say that i lost a lot of money and maybe now is not a good entry point because more losses are expected

there really has to be a rise soon or mass market adoption will fail, cause everyone will consider bitcoin as too dangerous or will forget about it

i will hodl what is left but i will not consider buying more and i will explicitly make aware of the danger of losing all investments...i prefer that they say "why didn't you force me to buy" than "because of you i lost a shitload of money"

When did you buy in? and how did you lose money?  did you buy high and sell low? or get margin called? how exactly did you lose a lot of money?

i don't see a point in giving especially you more ammo to shoot at me

?...... I am merely asking for you to clarify your statement that you have lost money?

I am not sure how that is "ammo" to ask you to explain your statement in a way that people can understand that makes sense? other than a vague "I lost a lot of money" because that does not say much about Bitcoin on its own at all...

I am asking how you managed to accomplish losing money ?   was it buy high and sell low? or margin calls or bad trading? or are you sitting on unrealised losses, or are you talking hypothetical losses? (due to missing perfect hypothetical trades)

It makes a LOT of difference, and your answer could give context and substance to your "I lost a lot of money because Bitcoin" statement....

[oda.krell]

Good try, but I find that proof somewhat unconvincing.  Is that the best you can do?   

As for Huobi, if you find it hard to disprove that 90% of the blockchain traffic is "fake", maybe you can provide evidence that any of Huobi's volume is "fake", in the same sense (a trader selling to himself).

Try and find a quote where I call Chinese volume "fake". Should be difficult (or very far into the past, maybe).

I've been on record several times that I believe there is a qualitative difference between costly / human volume and zero fee / bot volume, so for several types of analysis that look at volume, I believe the zero fee / bot volume has to be discounted.

But you know this. And I know you don't buy this. And I'm okay with this

[adamstgBit]

Hey Adam...

http://cointelegraph.com/news/112419/canadian-employees-increasingly-preferring-bitcoins-over-dollars


http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/salaries-paid-in-bitcoin-a-growing-trend-in-canada-1.2752441

No hard numbers, of course.  (But who cares for numbers if there is a large colorful pic.)

that cool!

i wonder if the employers that offer your pay in BTC, buy the BTC ?  or   have a shit tone of BTC?  or both?

i'll have to read this one later thanks.

[razorramon]

more or less

25% buying high/hypothetical losses
25% bad trading

since it isn't just about the money the main problem is the loss of faith in the bitcoin market...

i even unignored fallling (and ignored again)

but i am only bearish since sunday...so with a lot of new shorts and a bit of stagnation some people will maybe get nervous and give the much needed momentum to the upside

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

You're not alone. I also feel these stories are manufactured. It is not what I experience with other people.
Sure, some of them are in doubt, but others are at the brink of buying their first bitcoin because of my enthusiastic talk about it.

can you explain me how to explain the long decline to them? -20% in the last 30 days are not very enthusiastic...

+5% shorts in 24 hours could be an opportunity and the much needed momentum upwards...

look at the history broader than 30 days .. also look at the history broader than the last 9 months.  Maybe also explain diversification and only investing your comfort level rather than investing either balls to the wall or expectations to get rich quickly?  Even though you may be a trader or others may want to attempt to get rich through trading, most people lose a lot of money through trading and a more sound dollar cost averaging system should be contemplated and employed.. in other words buying and holding.. and investing in small increments.

that's more or less what i always said...don't get me wrong with my bearishness...maybe a few percent and i'm bullish again...but right now after all the dumps and failed 'rallies' i am really disappointed...

You mostly seem to be full of shit and talking your book, but since you gave some borderline non-trollish responses, I will respond in turn.

If you are disappointed, likely you set up your own false expectations or over invested or failed to have a strategy. 

Probably, you are just saying that you are disappointed b/c you seem to be trolling us, yet disappointed seems to be an awkward choice of words.. mostly you can be disappointed about yourself, which would make the most sense for a decent context for the use of the word.

short term i am really bearish, mid term stagnating at best, long term the chances are 30:70 against a bitcoin rise...

your odds are stated weirdly... are you saying only 30% chance that bitcoin will rise from it's present price?   Actually, the odds seem pretty decent that BTC prices will rise from its present price in the very near future.. less than a month is very likely.. but I am NOT really very certain about these kinds of predictions.. if we are talking about a year or even 5 years, then the odds are pretty fricken high that BTC will rise from its current price.. and there is a matter of quantity and a matter of stability and a matter of considering whether cashing out at any point is appropriate as or after such rise has occurred and people will come to varying conclusions regarding that.

with that personal pov, the next time i meet some people to talk about bitcoins i will have to say that i lost a lot of money and maybe now is not a good entry point because more losses are expected

If you lost money, likely it is due to your trading.  You do NOT lose money until you cash out, and if you picked unrealistic time lines then maybe you just had a bad strategy or a bad plan.

If you want to tell people that you are a stupid-ass fuck up, then that is your choice.  Sometimes it would be better to frame the topic a little more objectively and a little bit beyond your own narrow experiences (especially if you made some stupid ass mistakes b/c you were greedy or if you just merely had some bad luck).  In other words, bitcoin is far from over,and if you believe that there are going to be further losses, you and your friends may well miss the train or being running after it.

there really has to be a rise soon or mass market adoption will fail, cause everyone will consider bitcoin as too dangerous or will forget about it

Bitcoin does NOT appear to be in such a perilous stage as you seem to be describing it to be.  Yes, there may be additional decreases in price and price may possibly (though seemingly unlikely) sink into the $300s again, but even that would NOT be a death knell to bitcoin absent some further negative developments above and beyond downward price manipulation.

i will hodl what is left but i will not consider buying more and i will explicitly make aware of the danger of losing all investments...i prefer that they say "why didn't you force me to buy" than "because of you i lost a shitload of money"

I would NOT force or attempt to persuade anyone.. If you want to be helpful to people, you merely need to provide them some information and allow them to come to their own conclusion(s) regarding how and whether to proceed.

[empowering]

You're not alone. I also feel these stories are manufactured. It is not what I experience with other people.
Sure, some of them are in doubt, but others are at the brink of buying their first bitcoin because of my enthusiastic talk about it.

can you explain me how to explain the long decline to them? -20% in the last 30 days are not very enthusiastic...

+5% shorts in 24 hours could be an opportunity and the much needed momentum upwards...

look at the history broader than 30 days .. also look at the history broader than the last 9 months.  Maybe also explain diversification and only investing your comfort level rather than investing either balls to the wall or expectations to get rich quickly?  Even though you may be a trader or others may want to attempt to get rich through trading, most people lose a lot of money through trading and a more sound dollar cost averaging system should be contemplated and employed.. in other words buying and holding.. and investing in small increments.

that's more or less what i always said...don't get me wrong with my bearishness...maybe a few percent and i'm bullish again...but right now after all the dumps and failed 'rallies' i am really disappointed...

short term i am really bearish, mid term stagnating at best, long term the chances are 30:70 against a bitcoin rise...

with that personal pov, the next time i meet some people to talk about bitcoins i will have to say that i lost a lot of money and maybe now is not a good entry point because more losses are expected

there really has to be a rise soon or mass market adoption will fail, cause everyone will consider bitcoin as too dangerous or will forget about it

i will hodl what is left but i will not consider buying more and i will explicitly make aware of the danger of losing all investments...i prefer that they say "why didn't you force me to buy" than "because of you i lost a shitload of money"

When did you buy in? and how did you lose money?  did you buy high and sell low? or get margin called? how exactly did you lose a lot of money?

i don't see a point in giving especially you more ammo to shoot at me

?...... I am merely asking for you to clarify your statement that you have lost money?

I am not sure how that is "ammo" to ask you to explain your statement in a way that people can understand that makes sense? other than a vague "I lost a lot of money" because that does not say much about Bitcoin on its own at all...

I am asking how you managed to accomplish losing money ?   was it buy high and sell low? or margin calls or bad trading? or are you sitting on unrealised losses, or are you talking hypothetical losses? (due to missing perfect hypothetical trades)

It makes a LOT of difference, and your answer could give context and substance to your "I lost a lot of money because Bitcoin" statement....

more or less

25% buying high/hypothetical losses
25% bad trading

since it isn't just about the money the main problem is the loss of faith in the bitcoin market...

i even unignored fallling (and ignored again)

but i am only bearish since sunday...so with a lot of new shorts and a bit of stagnation some people will maybe get nervous and give the much needed momentum to the upside

thanks...

but

I am still unclear

Does this mean that of the funds you have "lost"


25% buying high/hypothetical losses = So this means you have not actually lost anything with this 25% then ? ....yet and you say that part of the 25% was hypothetical i.e trades you could have made if you had perfect prevision?or were trading with hindsight?  (which means that you did not actually lose anything there either?
 
25% bad trading - does this mean that you consistently nipped away at your net worth through bad trades? (did you keep buying high and selling low?) or did you make leveraged losses (or both?)

Also of the money you have lost that only cover 50% how did you lose the other 50%?

Also it does make all of the difference... it is the difference between saying "Bitcoin, will lose you money" and "I made some bad decisions/had bad luck trading Bitcoin" with the latter statement you could replace Bitcoin with "gold, silver, forex, stocks, etc etc i,e any trading instrument"  and with the former, you are making a statement regarding Bitcoin itself.

You make the statement about loss of confidence in the Bitcoin market, is this a personal statement?

Having bought BTC a fair time ago... and held all the way through several previous rallies, and during ath and  continuing to hold today, I would say that my confidence in the Bitcoin market is stronger than ever before... for many obvious reasons...  I for one am experiencing no such loss of confidence...

May I ask have you experience in trading pre Bitcoin? short term trading or mid term trading?

[JayJuanGee]

In other news: "Court grants man divorce over wife's demand for excessive sex" http://news.oneindia.in/mumbai/court-grants-man-divorce-over-wife-s-demand-for-excessive-sex-1512784.html

The husband alleged that she used to force him into having unnatural sex and whenever he tried to resist it, she would abuse him following which he had to succumb to her pressure and persistent demands. He told the court that he worked in three shifts leaving him very tired, and even then he was compelled to satisfy her 'lust'.

Poor guy.