Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[toknormal]

There seems to be another cup and handle forming though, on the 1W chart. Starting in June, till about now

Could be - i.e. you're saying that every handle is also a potential "cup" a la fractal formation ?

I just think traders are sick of selling now and realise the writing's on the wall for the bear market. Bitcoin is doing everything gold's supposed to be doing. The world is a very big place. Bitcoin is a very small market. People are going to start noticing it "didn't die".

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[toknormal]

It seems pretty unreliable to rely upon trade volume involving Chinese exchanges.

Seems pretty reliable to me. I prefer to rely on charts than bitcointalk urban myths about "faked volume".

[calme]

According to BullBear Analytics (i.e. the subscription-based BTC forecasting service), we'll likely need to correct deeper than we have in order to truly get through the 620-640 resistance range.  

[JayJuanGee]

It seems pretty unreliable to rely upon trade volume involving Chinese exchanges.

Seems pretty reliable to me. I prefer to rely on charts than bitcointalk urban myths about "faked volume".

I am not suggesting to not consider trade volume.  I am just asserting that the chinese trade volume is not reliable.  You can analyse price and make predictions by discounting aspects of the chinese trade volume because it is problematic, both in terms of its fakeness (as well as no fees and bots, too)

[JayJuanGee]

According to BullBear Analytics (i.e. the subscription-based BTC forecasting service), we'll likely need to correct deeper than we have in order to truly get through the 620-640 resistance range.  

I understand that you are referring to $720 to $740 resistance, but it is still bullshit.

There is no meaningful technical analysis that is going to justify that a correction "needs to be bigger than average", merely because they say... .. but at the same time corrections are part of the market process, but there is no real need that they have to be at any particular level, especially if you consider bitcoin in its current context.

[Elwar]

I just think traders are sick of selling now and realise the writing's on the wall for the bear market. Bitcoin is doing everything gold's supposed to be doing. The world is a very big place. Bitcoin is a very small market. People are going to start noticing it "didn't die".

True, the price kept going down because that was the trend. People were not investing in a currency that had been losing value over the past year.

Now that they see the price going up they will want to get in on a currency who's value has gone up over the past year.

Even my ultra-liberal (bitcoin is stupid) friend saw the price and said "Maybe I should stick $10k in bitcoin" today. Meanwhile I convinced my investor buddy who has over $1 million in stocks to buy his first bitcoin at $635, he just set up a weekly $400 buy.

It is feeling very much like 2013 again.

[toknormal]

...chinese trade volume because it is problematic, both in terms of its fakeness (as well as no fees and bots, too)

Ok, but you'd have to go a long way to convince me that the fake element is in any way dominant. All markets contain a degree of synthesised volume for one reason or another. The question is, can one player with limited budget dominate the character of the market over the other 100,000 ?

Thats why I don't hold much store by these kind of rumours. They're just a myth that grows legs on places like bitcointalk and for which nobody ever bothers to try to quantify.

You can see a distinct trend on very long range chart. The problem with faking the volume on any significant scale is that you also need to fake the price since one is a product of the other and these are genuine trades (unless the actual statistics are fakes which of course would be a different matter).

Ok, we are back over 5000 CNY. The 5180 SRB ignition level is in sight.

[Karartma1]

I'm getting messages and e-mails from people who heard bitcoin from me 3 years ago: those days are behind us but those were the days in which I was sponsoring and advocating bitcoin the most.
Do you know what I do today with those communications? I DELETE THEM! I said what I needed to say to them long ago.  

[JayJuanGee]

...chinese trade volume because it is problematic, both in terms of its fakeness (as well as no fees and bots, too)

Ok, but you'd have to go a long way to convince me that the fake element is in any way dominant. All markets contain a degree of synthesised volume for one reason or another. The question is, can one player with limited budget dominate the character of the market over the other 100,000 ?

Thats why I don't hold much store by these kind of rumours. They're just a myth that grows legs on places like bitcointalk and for which nobody ever bothers to try to quantify.

You can see a distinct trend on very long range chart. The problem with faking the volume on any significant scale is that you also need to fake the price since one is a product of the other and these are genuine trades (unless the actual statistics are fakes which of course would be a different matter).

Ok, we are back over 5000 CNY. The 5180 SRB ignition level is in sight.

We kind of already had this debate, and fine, you put more weight in the chinese volume than I do.  I am not saying to completely discard such volume, even though there has been some admissions that some of it is fake and we also know that there are a lot of bots in place, as well, based on no fee trading.  Furthermore, when there is that much volume and admissions of fakeness, we also have to consider that there may be some fractional reserves going on there, too. 

Sure, some of it may be true and some of it may lead, but there are likely better ways to analyze without putting so much weight and emphasis on the chinese.

I have no xenophobia or even fears of chinese, it is just that we need to consider the matter for what it is rather than putting too much reliance upon some things that could be not based in reality and real dynamics.


Also, this is a BTC/USD thread for a reason because the emphasis and reference point should be BTC/USD - yet I do understand that other currency pairs will also have effects on the BTC/USD pairs.. so I definitely acknowledge and recognize that cross currency influences do exist.

[toknormal]

I am not saying to completely discard such volume, even though there has been some admissions that some of it is fake and we also know that there are a lot of bots in place, as well, based on no fee trading.  Furthermore, when there is that much volume and admissions of fakeness, we also have to consider that there may be some fractional reserves going on there, too.

Ok, I'll take the health warning on the volume trends.

I just think that people need to be more rigorous about backing up such statements. You yourself have asserted you don't like "binary statements" (possibly you referred to them as "absolutes"). Well think about how much trading would be required to actually dominate the volume trends - you'd have to effectively render the entire market as insignificant. You'd be dominating the price as well as volume and the costs (losses) would be enormous.

The only way to reasonably do it would be to fake the whole market IMO - in other words a fractional reserve basis as you say.

All the same, there isn't the same volume pattern on Western exchanges so that does add weight to your view.

I'll keep an open mind on it  

[rjclarke2000]

I'm getting messages and e-mails from people who heard bitcoin from me 3 years ago: those days are behind us but those were the days in which I was sponsoring and advocating bitcoin the most.
Do you know what I do today with those communications? I DELETE THEM! I said what I needed to say to them long ago.  

Exactly what I do. I even shrug my shoulders when people come up to me asking questions now. I tried and was laughed at.

No more to say.

[toknormal]

What we don't want is a double top here - bouncing off the resistance again. That would mean going back to the day job and abandoning the more interesting activity of wall observing for another while.

We need bitcoin to break out of that U-bend with buoyancy. It has bounced once and come around for another shot with the battering ram. It's made a nice job of painting that shape I must say.

[Scofield]

In other words, the next 24h are critical? 

[toknormal]

In other words, the next 24h are critical?  

I think it could afford another couple of small retraces, but check this...as far as trading momentum goes, things could not be better placed. We've just made bullish exits from corrections in both the 4 hour and 6 hour chart.

The ingredients are all there. I could not have wished for more favourable winds if I had painted the charts myself. It would be a brave trader that started shorting this side of that breakout level IMHO.

[JayJuanGee]

I am not saying to completely discard such volume, even though there has been some admissions that some of it is fake and we also know that there are a lot of bots in place, as well, based on no fee trading.  Furthermore, when there is that much volume and admissions of fakeness, we also have to consider that there may be some fractional reserves going on there, too.

Ok, I'll take the health warning on the volume trends.

I just think that people need to be more rigorous about backing up such statements. You yourself have asserted you don't like "binary statements" (possibly you referred to them as "absolutes"). Well think about how much trading would be required to actually dominate the volume trends - you'd have to effectively render the entire market as insignificant. You'd be dominating the price as well as volume and the costs (losses) would be enormous.

The only way to reasonably do it would be to fake the whole market IMO - in other words a fractional reserve basis as you say.

All the same, there isn't the same volume pattern on Western exchanges so that does add weight to your view.

I'll keep an open mind on it  

Fair enough.  I think that you have pretty decent analysis, and sure each of us are taking into account a variety of factors within our attempts to understand various factors (and even to account for misinformation). 

I think that as long as you are considering a variety of factors, and attempting to back up what you say, then  that is certainly a lot more than many posters attempt to accomplish.. so definitely have to applaud you for making those various efforts to attempt to back up how you arrived at your various conclusions (even if I may not agree with all of it).

Another thing is that it can be quite bold (and even ballsy) to make some predictions when the price begins to move a lot.  I think that it becomes more and more difficult to come up with a decent theory regarding where the price is going. 

I remain somewhat of the opinion that the price battle has not really begun yet, because I am more or less of the conclusion that the trade volume remains mediocre (looking at the trade volume on the western exchanges).  You recall (of course you can look back at it) that there was an ongoing fairly intense trade volume from about August 2015 all the way until almost the end of 2015.  Western exchanges certainly are capable of increased BTC trade volume, which I expect to take place at some point when the price battle begins.  I personally expect such battle before reaching $850, but certainly it is possible (as you seem to be suggesting) that such a battle may not occur until prices shoot well beyond $850 (and I would assert that price battle would then take place in the higher than $1,500s, and probably in the $3k to $5k range, but in the end, I really have my doubts and I am thinking that the chances are fairly decent that we will witness a price battle before the mid-$800s... even though I would be pleasantly surprised - and likely financially prosper considerably -  if such a price battle does not begin until after $850).

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Momentum is building, I hope we don't have too harsh of a correction after this. Maybe if we push hard up to $800 there will be lots of people taking profits but this kind of steady rise is sustainable I'd say.

[rjclarke2000]

Momentum is building, I hope we don't have too harsh of a correction after this. Maybe if we push hard up to $800 there will be lots of people taking profits but this kind of steady rise is sustainable I'd say.

Exciting times. I never want to get too excited though as I have had my dreams crushed many many times in Bitcoin land. I'm sure there will be plenty more times.

But for now enjoy the moment.

[julian071]

Momentum is building, I hope we don't have too harsh of a correction after this. Maybe if we push hard up to $800 there will be lots of people taking profits but this kind of steady rise is sustainable I'd say.

Exciting times. I never want to get too excited though as I have had my dreams crushed many many times in Bitcoin land. I'm sure there will be plenty more times.

But for now enjoy the moment.

Haha well put, my sentiments exactly.

Love watching this battle around 5000 yuan.

[Scofield]

In other words, the next 24h are critical?  

I think it could afford another couple of small retraces, but check this...as far as trading momentum goes, things could not be better placed. We've just made bullish exits from corrections in both the 4 hour and 6 hour chart.

The ingredients are all there. I could not have wished for more favourable winds if I had painted the charts myself. It would be a brave trader that started shorting this side of that breakout level IMHO.

Very interesting indeed.. Certainly looks bullish. Need to get my eyes off the charts now, but i'll set some alerts on my iPhone for this 'magical' 5180 level.

Don't disappoint me BTC  

[soullyG]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqwborlxOwo