Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ted E. Bare]

If I'm correct, the last ones to close will lose approximately half of their balances. Yes it can get that ugly.

[TeeBone]

I see this as a large bounce off the 750 low, we should hit the 78% retracement at 1055. But, to zoom through the ATH from here, doesnt look proportional...it's happening too quick. If this is indeed the 'handle' part of the huge cup and handle from 2013-now, then another drop is likely.

[notme]

jfi there are still > 22k BTC shorts on bitfinex. that can escalate quickly. next week is critical  

Short positions on bitfinex haven't exceeded 16k since the hack.  The current figure is about 13k.  I'm not sure where you are getting 22k from.

https://bfxdata.com/positions/btcusd

[gembitz]

jfi there are still > 22k BTC shorts on bitfinex. that can escalate quickly. next week is critical  

How do they close all these shorts?  At what price does it start to get ugly?

^squeeeeeze the shorts(china)    weeeeeeeeee

[Pruden]

jfi there are still > 22k BTC shorts on bitfinex. that can escalate quickly. next week is critical  

Short positions on bitfinex haven't exceeded 16k since the hack.  The current figure is about 13k.  I'm not sure where you are getting 22k from.

https://bfxdata.com/positions/btcusd

From here: https://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/totals

I wonder what the difference means.

[JayJuanGee]

Doubling in price in half the time pattern essentially still holding for this exponential bull run ... late March 1600-1800, mid-May 3200-3600, early June insane vertical up to 6500-7200 and pop. For approximate repeat of 2013 halving bull adoption wave blow-off.

^bitcoiners can't do maths when the blocksize doubles to 2MB the price goes//^$2000?lol

 

(((n00bs!)))

Price and blocksize hardlimit are not correlated.

Bitcoin has a lot more going on than some mere simplistic (and even seemingly non-technical issue) such as blocksize hardlimit.  Yeah, sure granted there is some whining and politics around the blocksize hardlimit issue, but the correlation to price is quite tangential and sporadic and largely difficult to pinpoint in terms of directness... oh yeah, and even if there is some correlation, we have the other concept that even assuming correlation, that does not equal causation. 

[notme]

jfi there are still > 22k BTC shorts on bitfinex. that can escalate quickly. next week is critical  

Short positions on bitfinex haven't exceeded 16k since the hack.  The current figure is about 13k.  I'm not sure where you are getting 22k from.

https://bfxdata.com/positions/btcusd

From here: https://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/totals

I wonder what the difference means.

You can reserve swaps without utilizing them, which can get you a better rate.  So there are 22k btc reserved, and 13k already sold, leaving 9k btc sitting there ready to be sold for the right price without any additional swap cost to the trader.

(this is wrong, see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg17714512#msg17714512)

[Torque]

[gembitz]

Doubling in price in half the time pattern essentially still holding for this exponential bull run ... late March 1600-1800, mid-May 3200-3600, early June insane vertical up to 6500-7200 and pop. For approximate repeat of 2013 halving bull adoption wave blow-off.

^bitcoiners can't do maths when the blocksize doubles to 2MB the price goes//^$2000?lol

 

(((n00bs!)))

Price and blocksize hardlimit are not correlated.

Bitcoin has a lot more going on than some mere simplistic (and even seemingly non-technical issue) such as blocksize hardlimit.  Yeah, sure granted there is some whining and politics around the blocksize hardlimit issue, but the correlation to price is quite tangential and sporadic and largely difficult to pinpoint in terms of directness... oh yeah, and even if there is some correlation, we have the other concept that even assuming correlation, that does not equal causation. 

^simple fact bitcoiners can't do maths = 2MB is 1MB + 1MB so = $2000 price :-D

[JayJuanGee]

Thats it.

We have now transited permanently into the realm of 4-figure BTC, never to return.

We will never again see sub $1000 BTC. Double top on the 12-hour, concluded 3-year consolidation from last ATH. Games now going with serve and increments of $100

Are you being serious here? I mean, lots of people are expecting the fractal from June-July to repeat here with months of consolidation below 900 and then maybe a new rally after that. And these are only those who don't expect a new bear market to start from here again.

Who are these "lots of people" because that is sounding like pure pie in the sky fantasy bullshit?   or maybe coming off as a kind of royal "we."

We had a run up from $550 to $1140, and sure that was feeling a bit much and we got a pretty decent correction of over 34%.  What else do you want in terms of buying opportunities?

Sure it is possible that we can return to 3 digits, but I would not count on it, just as I would not count on not returning.

But, we all likely realize that Toknormal's statement was somewhat aspirational, but it certainly is quite possible to be completely true or at least true for long enough that you are missing various opportunities, if you have not already prepared for uppity rather than more down or flat.

[PoolMinor]

What if the last 3 weeks is a bull trap?

[keyboard warrior]

jfi there are still > 22k BTC shorts on bitfinex. that can escalate quickly. next week is critical  

Short positions on bitfinex haven't exceeded 16k since the hack.  The current figure is about 13k.  I'm not sure where you are getting 22k from.

https://bfxdata.com/positions/btcusd

From here: https://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/totals

I wonder what the difference means.

You can reserve swaps without utilizing them, which can get you a better rate.  So there are 22k btc reserved, and 16k already sold, leaving 6k btc sitting there ready to be sold for the right price without any additional swap cost to the trader.

Does this link show historical BTC swaps used together with the unused swaps, omitting the USD swaps?

https://www.bfxdata.com/swaphistory/btc

The bottom chart on that page shows this.

total sum of BTC margin funding: 22,414

unused sum of BTC margin funding: 199


The top chart on this page shows these values.

https://bfxdata.com/positions/btcusd

BTCUSD long positions: 34 425

BTCUSD short positions: -13 267

I assume the different totals are because USD is included and those figures are active values.

[JayJuanGee]

I see this as a large bounce off the 750 low, we should hit the 78% retracement at 1055. But, to zoom through the ATH from here, doesnt look proportional...it's happening too quick. If this is indeed the 'handle' part of the huge cup and handle from 2013-now, then another drop is likely.

I have no problem with any of that analysis.. yet, it seems that we have decent chance to get to $1,050-ish or higher before experiencing another correction.. but yeah, when it comes to the future, we are dealing with probabilities rather than certainties, and sometimes less probable scenarios can end up playing out....  ... I think a correction in this $1,000 to $1,050 arena seems less likely than a correction above $1,050, but wat deee fuq doo me noes?

[yefi]

Does this link show historical BTC swaps used together with the unused swaps, omitting the USD swaps?

https://www.bfxdata.com/swaphistory/btc

The bottom chart on that page shows this.

total sum of BTC margin funding: 22,414

unused sum of BTC margin funding: 199


The top chart on this page shows these values.

https://bfxdata.com/positions/btcusd

BTCUSD long positions: 34 425

BTCUSD short positions: -13 267

I assume the different totals are because USD is included and those figures are active values.

I always thought the difference was because BTC margin was used for long positions in the other markets as well as for shorts in BTC.

[keyboard warrior]

Does this link show historical BTC swaps used together with the unused swaps, omitting the USD swaps?

https://www.bfxdata.com/swaphistory/btc

The bottom chart on that page shows this.

total sum of BTC margin funding: 22,414

unused sum of BTC margin funding: 199


The top chart on this page shows these values.

https://bfxdata.com/positions/btcusd

BTCUSD long positions: 34 425

BTCUSD short positions: -13 267

I assume the different totals are because USD is included and those figures are active values.

I always thought the difference was because BTC margin was used for long position in the other markets as well as for shorts in BTC.

I have never used swaps on bitfinex. Can USD margin be used for long position in the other markets as well as for shorts in BTC? I think I read you can borrow bitcoins and use them to go either long or short with, and I assume USD is similar.

[PoolMinor]

I see this as a large bounce off the 750 low, we should hit the 78% retracement at 1055. But, to zoom through the ATH from here, doesnt look proportional...it's happening too quick. If this is indeed the 'handle' part of the huge cup and handle from 2013-now, then another drop is likely.

This is also logical to me. The handle is not formed yet, should take a minimum of 5.2857 weeks up to 6 months. I see the price getting to $1000-$1050 followed by another correction of ~25%, so not as far of a drop percentage wise as before but nonetheless.
Again I am not a bear but a chartist (novice).
I do want the price to go CCMF and to the moon, etc. But wishing for it to happen does not make it happen, being prepared for the swings helps psychologically as well as financially.

Sidenote:
All these people claiming to be investors still spouting the same thing yet the sooner they realize that they are actually traders then they can worry about price drops. As an investor the current price should never matter since they are hodling long term and any price below their target sell price is a great price to buy. All this bullshit of "Gee I only buy the dips," is pure hogwash. If you are only seeing it as a good buy because it once was $1200 and now it is $1000, then all last year and the year before and the year before that were great buying opportunities. So please save us all the rhetoric and keep the mindless chatter to yourselves.

[yefi]

I have never used swaps on bitfinex. Can USD margin be used for long position in the other markets as well as for shorts in BTC? I think I read you can borrow bitcoins and use them to go either long or short with, and I assume USD is similar.

I don't use Finex personally, so I'm not sure. I'd have thought that would be the case though.

I can not seeing it go below $1000 at this point. It shot pass it without a flinch in rolling on forward.
Just need to wait until the next economic news comes and see how it withstands what China exchanges and Trump is doing to the states economic woes have in store for the next 48 hours. If it stays above the price it is at now then it can be bulletproof.

Steady now, we're not out of the woods yet. Once we break the ATH, then maybe we can contemplate an end to triple digits. Right now price is approaching a delicate position, and, like PoolMiner mentioned, it could still all turn out to be a bull trap.

[keyboard warrior]

I have never used swaps on bitfinex. Can USD margin be used for long position in the other markets as well as for shorts in BTC? I think I read you can borrow bitcoins and use them to go either long or short with, and I assume USD is similar.

I don't use Finex personally, so I'm not sure. I'd have thought that would be the case though.

I can not seeing it go below $1000 at this point. It shot pass it without a flinch in rolling on forward.
Just need to wait until the next economic news comes and see how it withstands what China exchanges and Trump is doing to the states economic woes have in store for the next 48 hours. If it stays above the price it is at now then it can be bulletproof.

Steady now, we're not out of the woods yet. Once we break the ATH, then maybe we can contemplate an end to triple digits. Right now price is approaching a delicate position, and, like PoolMiner mentioned, it could still all turn out to be a bull trap.

So the scenario below is not yet impossible?

this doesn't look good

[Ted E. Bare]

...
All this bullshit of "Gee I only buy the dips," is pure hogwash. If you are only seeing it as a good buy because it once was $1200 and now it is $1000, then all last year and the year before and the year before that were great buying opportunities. So please save us all the rhetoric and keep the mindless chatter to yourselves.

I agree with most of what you said, but if you don't always have the funds available it is not a bad idea to buy the dips every now and then. This is actually a good strategy in my opinion. Buy every steep correction and profit.

[Ted E. Bare]

OKCoin just blew through 7000 as if it was nothing.