Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[toknormal]

Looks like the propellor correction to me. Everything toketh from the same hymn sheet.

I don't think you get such deep reversals in a genuine bear market. The correction's manifested immediately at all ranges, including weekly chart and they're starting to even out now. 12-hour momentum has gone positive. There will be some reversals down on the way back up higher lows I think.

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[ErikvanBreen]

I would not mind this happening in 2018: https://www.ccn.com/cryptocurrency-markets-hit-1-trillion-bitcoin-price-50000-year-experts-predict/

[Wekkel]

Look folks, just put all background noise about tether, India guv, Roubini FUD and other distractions out of your minds.

Here's what's going on. The correction is technical, pure and simple.

If you checkout this chart from 2015/2016/17, you can see that bitcoin grows in these 8-monthly bubbles which burst in the "propellor correction" fashion I described. The pattern's always the same:



That is:

 • market starts rising out of a bowl
 • gets to a point where it overheats
 • nosedives sharply all the way down to retest just below the previous "propellor spike"
 • retraces halfway up the initial correction and stabilises
 • drifts slowly down from there to settle from where it starts the next cycle

During 2017 these corrections got closer together as we've had both greater market depth AND unprecedented growth during the year. So instead of our 8-monthly crash and recovery we've had 3 of those consolidations (that manifest in the lowest resolution weekly chart) in the last 6 months instead of 1. The last one was in November, peaking at $7500. Together, those 3 consolidations amounted to an aggregate 77% retrace spanning 6-8 months. ($7500, November, $1825 end May).



What this means according to precedent is that we NEED to retest at least that 7500 (+or- 20%) region before progressing. It's just the bitcoin way. This is an uncapitalised asset class that's rapidly capitalising and there's so much clamour to get in that it can't do it smoothly.

The low of $8455 we saw on Bitstamp a couple of hours ago may or may not be the bottom of the wick. To complete the full depth of the needed correction we may have to revisit the $7500 level or even 6k at a pinch to really bake in the last runup but that could just as easily manifest as a momentary panic "fat finger" dump before retracing back up the decline to around the $13k level which is 50% of the consolidation we've had since the peak.


How Does this Compare to the 2013 bubble ?

In fact the 2013 rally and that nightmare 18 month recovery followed exactly the same pattern. The reason it took so long to recover is because it went straight from $126 all the way to the top in 7 straight weeks without any of these bubble-bursting corrections on the way (or even mini corrections). That meant that the last support level was the so called "Cyprus spike" way back in April 2013 when it spiked at $266. And sure enough - according to form - it went all the way back to retest that level and a bit more for good measure. Note this is very different to the situation we have now on 3 counts:

1. the rise from $1000 to $19k (16k realistically) is comparable in relative terms but has taken a whole year instead of just 7 weeks

2. we have 3 fairly hefty consolidations which more or less overlap each other and we've almost arrived at the last of those already

3. the correction is rapid and deep which is a good sign because it snaps the market quickly back into a more reasonable trend that can be sustained (see previous "propellor corrections how they've played out).

Note: the angle between the support level and the 3 retracement lines in the 2013 chart below. You can see from that that the closer the retracement occurs to the peak blow-off, the higher the bottom will be. 2014 went low because it retraced so slowly and didn't hit the fan-line for a whole year.

Conclusion is, this means the bottom will be in fairly quickly and it's likely to be in the region of the $7500 level +/- 20% in my opinion followed by a fairly rapid (21 day) retrace to the upside as shorts close and off-book demand goes back onto the order books. If not, there are still a furter two consolidation levels available below that but it'd be a brave shorter that would put a lot of money behind adverse trades at those levels given the precedents IMO.

Nailed it.

Quoting for posterity.

[Mythase]

Is it me or I have a feeling the alt season is finally coming to an end.
The alts didn't bounce as hard as I expected, or if they did, they didn't hold long.

Yesterday commission hearing was bullish for bitcoin, but bearish for alts in my opinion.

So, is the alt season f-f-f-finally ending? Or I'm just seeing shit....

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Is it me or I have a feeling the alt season is finally coming to an end.
The alts didn't bounce as hard as I expected, or if they did, they didn't hold long.

Yesterday commission hearing was bullish for bitcoin, but bearish for alts in my opinion.

So, is the alt season f-f-f-finally ending? Or I'm just seeing shit....

You're just seeing shit.

Bitcoin is still "down" from a short-term perspective and pretty much all altcoin valuations are denominated in BTC, not USD. Once Bitcoin starts tracing back up, altcoins will probably go down in terms of BTC while roughly tracing their "original" USD valuations. Then once Bitcoin starts moving sideways, alts will play their usual catchup game.

In the meantime, whichever alts have strong changes in fundamentals will go up regardless of the current market situation.

But in short, there's certainly no reason to assume that altcoins are "ending". They are primed to be the equity of the future, especially if regulators actually start embracing cryptos. Of course, that does not include complete and utter shitcoins with no value proposition.

[Bitcoinaire]

The bitfinexed dude is gonna go crazy, he was tweeting every 20 minutes how tether is a scam and bitcoin will crash and burn. He sold early, around $1500, and received $40,000 from donations for his lawsuit against bitfinex.

[European Central Bank]

Is it not possible the bitfinexed guy exit scammed with his legal funds?

Whatever happened he's put up a valiant fight but bitfinex have the funds to out troll everyone.

[julian071]

Was out of the office a couple of days. Today I heard a couple of collegues actually sold at the bottom! Shaking out the weak hands really works.....  =(

[Paashaas]

I'm still kind of coming to grips with the fact that a man just put his version of a lambo IN ORBIT...with a final destination of MARS...

I Like what Mr. Musk did with that car 

(This pic is real)

I somehow missed the car in that. Had to go back to double check, damn that guy is all the good kinds of crazy.

Starman will be in oure solar system for many many years to come. Repeating the same track from 'David Bowie' -Space Oddity- You can even watch ''The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy'' 

And that ''Don't Panic'' on that touchscreen. 

You can follow Starman's live stream here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?_sp=080f132e-9ded-4bab-b36a-b5c49d26b832.1518016157691&time_continue=6&v=aBr2kKAHN6M

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Was out of the office a couple of days. Today I heard a couple of collegues actually sold at the bottom! Shaking out the weak hands really works.....  =(

There's a reason why Buffet called the stock markets a device for transfering money from the impatient to the patient.

Starman will be in oure solar system for many many years to come. Repeating the same track from 'David Bowie' -Space Oddity- You can even watch ''The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy'' 

And that ''Don't Panic'' on that touchscreen. 

You can follow Starman's live stream here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?_sp=080f132e-9ded-4bab-b36a-b5c49d26b832.1518016157691&time_continue=6&v=aBr2kKAHN6M

Isn't it going to run out of energy eventually? Did they say how long it'd last?

[Elwar]

Isn't it going to run out of energy eventually? Did they say how long it'd last?

Next thing going up: charging stations

[El duderino_]

Was out of the office a couple of days. Today I heard a couple of collegues actually sold at the bottom! Shaking out the weak hands really works.....  =(

Same here very few but Some friends also panic sold but only like very few of them

[Ivor Biggun]

J. Christopher Giancarlo describes HODL in the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking  ... HODL On For Dear Life - ɃItcoin .... His niece is a HODLer!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSPywOS9DWU

More and more praises for Bitcoin:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rWcVgffsjQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G16g9neqUFQ

This guy made my day!  

I thought HODL was just a typo error meaning HOLD from this forum a few years ago.  Not sure where he got Hold On For Dear Life from?

The origin : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=375643.2620
 

This is the drunken post where GameKyuubi first made the famous I AM HODLING typo for that thread's title. GameKyuubi has been sent 162 merit points for it already.

I type d that tyitle twice because I knew it was wrong the first time.  Still wrong.  w/e.  GF's out at a lesbian bar, BTC crashing WHY AM I HOLDING? I'LL TELL YOU WHY.  It's because I'm a bad trader and I KNOW I'M A BAD TRADER.  Yeah you good traders can spot the highs and the lows pit pat piffy wing wong wang just like that and make a millino bucks sure no problem bro.  Likewise the weak hands are like OH NO IT'S GOING DOWN I'M GONNA SELL he he he and then they're like OH GOD MY ASSHOLE when the SMART traders who KNOW WHAT THE FUCK THEY'RE DOING buy back in but you know what?  I'm not part of that group.  When the traders buy back in I'm already part of the market capital so GUESS WHO YOU'RE CHEATING day traders NOT ME~!  Those taunt threads saying "OHH YOU SHOULD HAVE SOLD" YEAH NO SHIT.  NO SHIT I SHOULD HAVE SOLD.  I SHOULD HAVE SOLD MOMENTS BEFORE EVERY SELL AND BOUGHT MOMENTS BEFORE EVERY BUY BUT YOU KNOW WHAT NOT EVERYBODY IS AS COOL AS YOU.  You only sell in a bear market if you are a good day trader or an illusioned noob.  The people inbetween hold.  In a zero-sum game such as this, traders can only take your money if you sell.

so i've had some whiskey
actually on the bottle it's spelled whisky
w/e
sue me
(but only if it's payable in BTC)

[bitebits]

Was out of the office a couple of days. Today I heard a couple of collegues actually sold at the bottom! Shaking out the weak hands really works.....  =(

Never owned more bitcoin than I do today. I am a lousy trader, which fortunately I know, so I haven’t had so little fiat for quite a while.

Many are in for gaining dollars, euros or whatever fiat currency (not judging, perfectly normal). Few want to take the risk of accumulating a fixed stake in a truly decentralized ledger with mostly still unknown potential.

I feel fortunate being able to spend most of my pay so frivolously.

[josephpogi]

Crypto Experts Predict 2018 Bull Run: Bitcoin To $50k, Overall Market Cap To $1 Trln
https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-experts-predict-2018-bull-run-bitcoin-to-50k-overall-market-cap-to-1-trln

I NEED MORE MONEY TO INVEST MORE IF BITCOIN GOES DIP AGAIN 
 I CHOOSE MY HOUSE I WILL SELL IT . 

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Crypto Experts Predict 2018 Bull Run: Bitcoin To $50k, Overall Market Cap To $1 Trln
https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-experts-predict-2018-bull-run-bitcoin-to-50k-overall-market-cap-to-1-trln

I NEED MORE MONEY TO INVEST MORE IF BITCOIN GOES DIP AGAIN  
 I CHOOSE MY HOUSE I WILL SELL IT .  

Make sure to trade your house at the peak and then sell at the dip in full on panic mode.

[El duderino_]

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST       

27/12/2017 bikerleszno
29/12/2018 cAPSLOCK 
30/12/2017 digithusiast
31/12/2017 Raja_MBZ
01/01/2018 elg
02/01/2018 wachtwoord
03/01/2018 JimboToronto
04/01/2018 d_eddie 
05/01/2018 BTCMILLIONAIRE
06/01/2018 HanvanBitcoin
07/01/2018 ghandi
08/01/2018 savetherainforrest
09/01/2018 explorer
10/01/2018 bicoinpsycho
11/01/2018 Bitcoinaire
12/01/2018 speedwheel
13/01/2018 undeadbitcoiner
14/01/2018 northypole
15/01/2018 ivomm
16/01/2018 maca068
17/01/2018 bitcoinvest
18/01/2018 last of the v8s
19/01/2018 mfort312
20/01/2018 1982dre
21/01/2018 flamast2
22/01/2018 RealMachasm
23/01/2018 willope
24/01/2018 kartala
25/01/2018 orpington
26/01/2018 rolling
27/01/2018 LFC_bitcoin
28/01/2018 jojo69
29/01/2018 CristiTCM
30/01/2018 rayX12
31/01/2018 realsteelboy
01/02/2018 twocorn
02/02/2018 mancroofer
03/02/2018 True Myth
04/02/2018 poolminor
05/02/2018 itod
06/02/2018 scheptan
07/02/2018 vapourminer
08/02/2018 alexeft
09/02/2018 siera
10/02/2018 AlcoHoDL
11/02/2018 Dunkelheit667
12/02/2018 yonton
13/02/2018 Wekkel
14/02/2018 Thekool1s
15/02/2018 starmman
16/02/2018 Globb0
17/02/2018 leveldkrypto
18/02/2018 olesh
19/02/2018 BitCoinBurger
20/02/2018 Paashaas
21/02/2018 flynn
22/02/2018 icygreen
23/02/2018 erisdiscordia
24/02/2018 phil_s
25/02/2018 sirazimuth
26/02/2018 Arriemoller
27/02/2018 yonton
28/02/2018 Muttley
01/03/2018 bones261
02/03/2018 heater
03/03/2018 soullyG
04/03/2018 InvoKing
05/03/2018 Notme
06/03/2018 sa_94
07/03/2018 NUFCrichard
08/03/2018 Imbatman
09/03/2018 Roombot
10/03/2018 STT
11/03/2018 badream
13/03/2018 erre
14/03/2018 julian071
15/03/2018 podyx
17/03/2018 fragout
18/03/2018 fabiorem
21/03/2018 dakustaking76
23/03/2018 nikauforest
31/03/2018 vroom
01/04/2018 somac.
02/04/2018 kurious
04/04/2018 fluidjax
05/04/2018 bitcoinbunny
08/04/2018 tyler1890
10/04/2018 ludwigvon
11/04/2018 hairymaclairy
16/04/2018 practicaldreamer
18/04/2018 free-bit.co.in
27/04/2018 drbrockoin
01/05/2018 sprinkles
02/06/2018 oblox
07/07/2018 IntroVert
03/08/2018 toxic2040
28/08/2018 bitserve
15/10/2018 Yefi
05/11/2018 mikenz
31/12/2018 melman2002
01/01/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
12/02/2019 FractalUniverse
21/04/2019 gentlemand
20/02/2020 romneymoney
18/12/2021 luckygenough56

UPDATE     AND GOOD LUCK.

Things are looking better again - specialy for newcomers/investers and so on
Little bit of green and news is getting bullish again
So fingers crossed for going into a very bright 2018/ future
My sails are wide open too take much wind and too go in full ocean or Just on the CCMF train

So within short time somebody’s gonna collect them .25 big ones or eather mid-longterm .....?

[STT]

Good charts but its going to need more points on a trend to confirm that action as a valid point of any support of resistance I think.    Its possible for it to be too arbitrary, just drawn in to fit the data at present so it wouldnt give a good indication for the future exactly.

A trend is ok for a quick summary but a better show is a channel which is a set of parallel lines with some opposing show of regular decline in highest prices and lowest prices over time.



 
This is my very rough view and I go back to the ATH for reference of lower highers.  A proper rise requires us to break this decline at the highest point also

[RealMachasm]

I retired before I was 40 thanks to crypto.  Fear not, you won't regret it. Best. Decision. Ever.

What do you do instead?
Some work is healthy for you, keeps you on your toes; it doesn't have to be a 9-5 type job.

I went back to school to study based on personal interests instead of studying something solely in order to get a job at the end.  And I'm learning music, writing, travelling and generally keeping myself busy, instead of being kept busy by an employer.

To me this sounds more like a hiatus/recharging batteries/changing life direction than a real long term retirement.
Prediction: you'll be back..sometime. Nothing wrong to work for yourself either as in owning a business.

Yeah, I agree that's what I thought it might have been too - an opportunity to recharge.  However, having now been retired for several years, I can confirm that I'll definitely not be returning to work.  I considered starting a business (again) but could find little attractive about that option.  Folk often say that they'd have to carry on working if they won the lotto, just to give themselves something to do.  To me, that seems to be the sign of a small mind - there are so many interesting things to do out there, places to visit, things to learn, people to meet, discussions to be had - all of which are so much more enjoyable when they don't have to be done in order to earn a wage.

For so many, the need to work gets in the way of being able to do or try all of those things. Work uses up so much of our time that it gets in the way of life.

Thankfully I'm in very good health and enjoy an outdoor lifestyle, which I can now pursue without having to squeeze in x hours per day at a place I don't want to be and, often, with people I don't want to be with.  Sure, early retirement isn't for everyone, I guess it depends on your personality type.

I'm also enjoying being able to help out friends and family financially and watch them pursue their own goals, which wouldn't have been possible for them without a helping hand. That makes me really happy.

Out of merits for Me I’m afraid. Great outlook on life. Remember those of us that work should work to live and not live to work.

[El duderino_]

I retired before I was 40 thanks to crypto.  Fear not, you won't regret it. Best. Decision. Ever.

What do you do instead?
Some work is healthy for you, keeps you on your toes; it doesn't have to be a 9-5 type job.

I went back to school to study based on personal interests instead of studying something solely in order to get a job at the end.  And I'm learning music, writing, travelling and generally keeping myself busy, instead of being kept busy by an employer.

To me this sounds more like a hiatus/recharging batteries/changing life direction than a real long term retirement.
Prediction: you'll be back..sometime. Nothing wrong to work for yourself either as in owning a business.

Yeah, I agree that's what I thought it might have been too - an opportunity to recharge.  However, having now been retired for several years, I can confirm that I'll definitely not be returning to work.  I considered starting a business (again) but could find little attractive about that option.  Folk often say that they'd have to carry on working if they won the lotto, just to give themselves something to do.  To me, that seems to be the sign of a small mind - there are so many interesting things to do out there, places to visit, things to learn, people to meet, discussions to be had - all of which are so much more enjoyable when they don't have to be done in order to earn a wage.

For so many, the need to work gets in the way of being able to do or try all of those things. Work uses up so much of our time that it gets in the way of life.

Thankfully I'm in very good health and enjoy an outdoor lifestyle, which I can now pursue without having to squeeze in x hours per day at a place I don't want to be and, often, with people I don't want to be with.  Sure, early retirement isn't for everyone, I guess it depends on your personality type.

I'm also enjoying being able to help out friends and family financially and watch them pursue their own goals, which wouldn't have been possible for them without a helping hand. That makes me really happy.

Out of merits for Me I’m afraid. Great outlook on life. Remember those of us that work should work to live and not live to work.

No stress i’m also short on merit’s...... but as long we have btc’s....Where still here and we still matter