Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[explorer]

Earlier, the head of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Agustin Carstens said bitcoin is “a combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster,” calling central banks to crack down on cryptocurrencies.

                                                                                    Agustin_Carstens

Lol, calling something an environmental disaster when he is that size.

There's the Real Bubble^TM  Pop that fucker!

[bitserve]

I think this time it's gonna break it.

[marcus_of_augustus]

freeloads piggybacking threat to financial stability a combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster

so funny ... central piggybanker economist freeloader controlling the biggeest fiat pwnzee scheme in history is blind to his own plight.

bears make money, bulls money, pigs get slaughtered, this is guy is definitely the new fall guy for the coming BIS banking failure ... what happens when BIS is bankrupt?

[mymenace]

freeloads piggybacking threat to financial stability a combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster

so funny ... central piggybanker economist freeloader controlling the biggeest fiat pwnzee scheme in history is blind to his own plight.

bears make money, bulls money, pigs get slaughtered, this is guy is definitely the new fall guy for the coming BIS banking failure ... what happens when BIS is bankrupt?

                                                                                    Agustin_Carstens



made me laugh "pigs get slaughtered", reminds me of the kodak story and their hidden digital tech never to be released


a complete change, replaced the old with the new

[HairyMaclairy]

The chart I posted shows almost 4x more people are borrowing to bet that BTC will go up compared to people borrowing to bet that the price will go down.

I use this as a measure of sentiment and view it as bullish. But it can also go badly wrong. If the bears can fight against the tide and force the price downwards, they could start a cascade which would force the bulls out of their positions at a loss and trigger a massive price spike downwards.   

Elwar brings up a good point, in that the exchange where this data is drawn from (BfX) is forcing corporate accounts to close. Corporate accounts tend to be short bitcoin.  So this could just mean the underlying mix of players is changing with no change in sentiment. Hard to evaluate without further information.

[Torque]

Elwar brings up a good point, in that the exchange where this data is drawn from (BfX) is forcing corporate accounts to close.

Wha? They can do that?

[HairyMaclairy]

It’s their exchange. They can do whatever they like. 

That said I did a quick google and am seeing conflicting reports about corporate accounts on BFX.  Maybe Elwar can clarify.

[mymenace]

freeloads piggybacking threat to financial stability a combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster

so funny ... central piggybanker economist freeloader controlling the biggeest fiat pwnzee scheme in history is blind to his own plight.

bears make money, bulls money, pigs get slaughtered, this is guy is definitely the new fall guy for the coming BIS banking failure ... what happens when BIS is bankrupt?

made me laugh "pigs get slaughtered", reminds me of the kodak story and their hidden digital tech never to be released


a complete change, replaced the old with the new

Could anyone clarify if debt would be wiped if your bank is bankrupt?

only rationale I have for booming stock market, low liquidity, record tax cuts, trillion dollar debt and trillion dollar budget

spend it all now before you bankrupt

[marcus_of_augustus]

Could anyone clarify if debt would be wiped if your bank is bankrupt

debts like that never really die, they get zombified into 'non-performing loans' and sold on for cents on the dollar to the liquidating entity of the bust enterprise. Really big enterprises it gets rolled into govt. debt and shuffled around onto central bank balance sheets where it withers and shrivels up over decades as inflation erodes the principal value away as they "print money" to cover the problems.

Some South Sea debt from early 1700's is still on the books of the government of UK (or is it the BoE?) ... also WW1 debts and depression era, WWII bonds, etc is still floating around getting traded at cents on the dollar or pennies on the pound as the case maybe.

tl;dr ... if your bank goes bust you'll probably still owe 'someone' something depending who buys the bank's loan book, what currency the loan is denominated in, and if it is worth their while chasing you down for repayment(s)

[European Central Bank]

It’s their exchange. They can do whatever they like. 

That said I did a quick google and am seeing conflicting reports about corporate accounts on BFX.  Maybe Elwar can clarify.

american accounts only as far as i can tell.

[d_eddie]

I might be mistaken about bisq position in the BCH affair. Here's what I wrote.

https://markets.bisq.network/

bisq does fiat and is what they're calling a 'decentralized exchange'

Bisq does p2p matching much like localbitcoins. They use their app to match people and one or two guys act as arbitrators in case of dispute.

The idea is that there will be many arbitrators but when you look closer, it's basically the two guys that created the software. That's how they make money on it. Certainly a step in the right direction.

Bisq jumped on the BCH bandwagon during the fork trouble. Let's not forget that.

I was sure I read something - on their front page, on their mailing list or somewhere else - to the effect that they were supporting BCH. It might have been a list of NY Agreement signatories?
However, I received a PM by one of our active members who did some research and couldn't find anything about that.

So I'm doubtful now. Any additional info could be useful to set this straight.

[Nosk]

There's the Real Bubble^TM  Pop that fucker!

Hahaahaha I lost my shit

[Trilogy-AI]

The chart I posted shows almost 4x more people are borrowing to bet that BTC will go up compared to people borrowing to bet that the price will go down.

I use this as a measure of sentiment and view it as bullish. But it can also go badly wrong. If the bears can fight against the tide and force the price downwards, they could start a cascade which would force the bulls out of their positions at a loss and trigger a massive price spike downwards.   

Elwar brings up a good point, in that the exchange where this data is drawn from (BfX) is forcing corporate accounts to close. Corporate accounts tend to be short bitcoin.  So this could just mean the underlying mix of players is changing with no change in sentiment. Hard to evaluate without further information.

That may be true, but compare that to a typical stock. The number of short investors is actually never *greater* than 25%. So by that measure, 25% betting that the price of BTC will go down is actually extremely bearish.

[mymenace]

Could anyone clarify if debt would be wiped if your bank is bankrupt

debts like that never really die, they get zombified into 'non-performing loans' and sold on for cents on the dollar to the liquidating entity of the bust enterprise. Really big enterprises it gets rolled into govt. debt and shuffled around onto central bank balance sheets where it withers and shrivels up over decades as inflation erodes the principal value away as they "print money" to cover the problems.

Some South Sea debt from early 1700's is still on the books of the government of UK (or is it the BoE?) ... also WW1 debts and depression era, WWII bonds, etc is still floating around getting traded at cents on the dollar or pennies on the pound as the case maybe.

tl;dr ... if your bank goes bust you'll probably still owe 'someone' something depending who buys the bank's loan book, what currency the loan is denominated in, and if it is worth their while chasing you down for repayment(s)

that's understandable

interesting though to see if it would really apply to government debt in the case of BIS going bankrupt

nations agreeably removing nation debt and exchanging currency freely.

[d_eddie]

The chart I posted shows almost 4x more people are borrowing to bet that BTC will go up compared to people borrowing to bet that the price will go down.

I use this as a measure of sentiment and view it as bullish. But it can also go badly wrong. If the bears can fight against the tide and force the price downwards, they could start a cascade which would force the bulls out of their positions at a loss and trigger a massive price spike downwards.   

Elwar brings up a good point, in that the exchange where this data is drawn from (BfX) is forcing corporate accounts to close. Corporate accounts tend to be short bitcoin.  So this could just mean the underlying mix of players is changing with no change in sentiment. Hard to evaluate without further information.

That may be true, but compare that to a typical stock. The number of short investors is actually never *greater* than 25%. So by that measure, 25% betting that the price of BTC will go down is actually extremely bearish.

But this is crypto. Analogies with the stock market are often misleading and always risky.

[HairyMaclairy]

The chart I posted shows almost 4x more people are borrowing to bet that BTC will go up compared to people borrowing to bet that the price will go down.

I use this as a measure of sentiment and view it as bullish. But it can also go badly wrong. If the bears can fight against the tide and force the price downwards, they could start a cascade which would force the bulls out of their positions at a loss and trigger a massive price spike downwards.   

Elwar brings up a good point, in that the exchange where this data is drawn from (BfX) is forcing corporate accounts to close. Corporate accounts tend to be short bitcoin.  So this could just mean the underlying mix of players is changing with no change in sentiment. Hard to evaluate without further information.

That may be true, but compare that to a typical stock. The number of short investors is actually never *greater* than 25%. So by that measure, 25% betting that the price of BTC will go down is actually extremely bearish.

But this is crypto. Analogies with the stock market are often misleading and always risky.

The chart indicates a more “normal” ratio is about 1.5:1 for BTC.  But it only goes back about 6 months

[marcus_of_augustus]

snip ... more people are borrowing to bet BTC ... snip ... people borrowing to bet BTC ....

... I think I may have found the fundamental problem in the risk analysis logic here?

Borrowing to bet on a limited-issuance, near instantly redeemable, bearer instrument is extreme risk-taking by any measures.

Discussing how fast the bamboo and rice paper building will burn when doused in gasoline is fun but kind of misses the point that there are children playing with matches in the crawl space.

[Elwar]

It’s their exchange. They can do whatever they like. 

That said I did a quick google and am seeing conflicting reports about corporate accounts on BFX.  Maybe Elwar can clarify.

american accounts only as far as i can tell.

This is what I read here.

[HairyMaclairy]

snip ... more people are borrowing to bet BTC ... snip ... people borrowing to bet BTC ....

... I think I may have found the fundamental problem in the risk analysis logic here?

Borrowing to bet on a limited-issuance, near instantly redeemable, bearer instrument is extreme risk-taking by any measures.

Discussing how fast the bamboo and rice paper building will burn when doused in gasoline is fun but kind of misses the point that there are children playing with matches in the crawl space.

None of this is your grandma’s pension fund.  2X is very different from 100X (instant suicide).   And don’t think the big boys don’t play with exotic instruments.  That’s why we had the GFC. 

[moneyForjam]

this is how I see it