Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

So price wise, is this going deeper or are we out of the dark? I personally think that we will go and test prices around 3xxx, where it should bounce back up. Again, no real TA behind it, just my own prediction based on different articles and stuff.

Would like to hear what TA specialists have to say about this. And maybe throw us some graphs.

You read a bunch of articles saying that bitcoin is going down, therefore the weight of the evidence causes you to feel that there are pretty decent chances that bitcoin is going down.

That makes a lot of sense.    

You are wrong, try not to assume so much.

How could I be wrong or assuming, when I am merely attempting to make a parity out of your earlier post by summing it up?

Are you now qualifying what you said,  or are you asserting that I mischaracterized what you said?

In December most articles were about how it's going to the moon and extreme levels,

So what?  We get articles that go with the momentum all the time, and when the trend reverses, those articles end up being wrong.  You are not saying much by merely describing what a bunch of articles are saying, especially if they are just talking about the trend... and having higher (or lower) expectations depending on the then BTC price direction.

though I was pretty sure around 12-13k it will crash soon and hard, ppl were still buying pretty actively then.

Well, yes many of us had sentiments regarding the topping of the BTC that just kept going up, and up, and up, and I had similar sentiments.

It remains amazing how those bullish sentiments work, and the bearish sentiments work in similar ways, too.

At some point, any of us become wrong.

I can read 10 positive articles and have a negative view after that, or vice versa.

Ok.  That is good, but that is not what you seemed to be saying in your previous post.

In any event, if you are not tweaking your previous prediction, then it seems that you are continuing to anticipate the BTC price to bottom out in the $3k-ish price territory...    What kind of action are you taking to prepare for your anticipation of the price movements?  Did you sell some or all, or are you planning to do it at certain price points?  Are you holding?  Are you planning to buy?  If you are planning to buy, at what price points would you do it?  Do you play with margin or not? 

[Cassius]

price manipulation at its finest

Got to say that was a good one. Wait for MA cross. Wait for inverse H&S to near completion. Wait for sentiment across TA commentators to pick up.
Then dump.

[vroom]

this is the last dump before the next leg up will bring us to over $7000. you heard it here first!

[JayJuanGee]

I will admit that Roger ...

There is a bit of a strange overlap with his supposed concept of wanting decentralization, but wanting to have veto power, too...

OK, I'll bite. What is this 'veto power' of which you speak?

It is a concept that Roger Ver does not want to participate unless he gets his way.  

So to you, withdrawing from participation is 'veto power'.

Whoaza, jbreher dee bcash supporting bear.   Your blind support for Roger Ver seems to be causing you to distort and twist what I said about that emotional self-absorbed nutjob, also known as Roger Ver.

No. The convo is clear to all who will read it. You are the one who defined 'veto power' as "a concept that [someone] does not want to participate unless he gets his way".

Maybe our sense of "clear" is unclear?

I thought that I made myself clear enough, especially for those who understood that I was criticizing Roger's personality and his seemingly ongoing temper tantrum motivations, and now we seem to be getting repetitive... And, you want to get into some kind of other distracting point about what is the greater and deeper meaning of "veto power," when I thought that I made myself clear enough for all intents and purposes.. except not for the intent of satisfying someone like you who feels some kind of compelling drive to defend fellow BIG blocker nutjobs like Roger who, like I said, is motivated by wanting to have his way.. Are we repeating to such an extent that such points are getting lost?  Perhaps, but it seems to me that you want to distract and to divert such topics in such a way to make the point(s) about me or some abstract concepts of "veto power" rather than the overall point that I was attempting to make?

What more do we need to say to beat this topic to death?

I think ABC Bitcoin announcing hard forks on short notice and telling everyone to get in line or be left behind on the minority chain counts as veto power

That seems to be a slightly different point, and we can attempt to describe what they were doing as a form of a desperate temper tantrum that the NY agreement had kind of blown up and was not going their way.... so they made a last gasp at attempting to muddy the waters and to NOT to get segwit.  Maybe initially bcash was not meant to be an attack vector for bitcoin, but it has grown in that direction?  I think that my main point is that the motivations and the movers behind bcash kind of changed with time, and like you suggested, it is not like they waited around to see what people thought, they just did it because they felt that it served their narrow interest... perhaps the bcash fork itself was more of a Jihan Wu move, but the subsequent marketing and using bcash as a bitcoin attack vector became more of Roger's and Craig's baby.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

[Gyrsur]

BMW M is not so bad.  

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

I could afford a personal automobile once. Briefly

[Globb0]

The slam 

well played

Big house

[starmman]

Haha, nice post =)

It would be great to see a little more momentum

[somac.]

this is the last dump before the next leg up will bring us to over $7000. you heard it here first!

I'm thinking that a bottom may be close myself. Bitcoin's strongest selling point is escape from banks and fuck wit governments. With the US now actively attempting to destroy the status quo post Bretton Woods environment, various governments, and banks, are going to start adding more restrictions to global flows, and start coming down harder on their populace, as their people will no doubt get more restless with the credit bubble tapping out.

I think China will be a driver of the btc price again, despite what people are saying I think they are close disaster. I read a comment recently from a man who has a lot of business in China and has a lot of connections with high up party members and business leaders. Things don't sound good.

[Gyrsur]

this is the last dump before the next leg up will bring us to over $7000. you heard it here first!

I'm thinking that a bottom may be close myself. Bitcoin's strongest selling point is escape from banks and fuck wit governments. With the US now actively attempting to destroy the status quo post Bretton Woods environment, various governments, and banks, are going to start adding more restrictions to global flows, and start coming down harder on their populace, as their people will no doubt get more restless with the credit bubble tapping out.

I think China will be a driver of the btc price again, despite what people are saying I think they are close disaster. I read a comment recently from a man who has a lot of business in China and has a lot of connections with high up party members and business leaders. Things don't sound good.

maybe South_America will also be a driver of the Bitcoin price in the next time.

[somac.]

this is the last dump before the next leg up will bring us to over $7000. you heard it here first!

I'm thinking that a bottom may be close myself. Bitcoin's strongest selling point is escape from banks and fuck wit governments. With the US now actively attempting to destroy the status quo post Bretton Woods environment, various governments, and banks, are going to start adding more restrictions to global flows, and start coming down harder on their populace, as their people will no doubt get more restless with the credit bubble tapping out.

I think China will be a driver of the btc price again, despite what people are saying I think they are close disaster. I read a comment recently from a man who has a lot of business in China and has a lot of connections with high up party members and business leaders. Things don't sound good.

maybe South_America will also be a driver of the Bitcoin price in the next time.

Honestly, I hope everywhere is the driver of the price. People need to realize that they are getting screwed over big time financially and that bitcoin is one of, if not the only, thing that can protect them and they can use to fight back with.

[bakasabo]

What is so special about starbucks ? Most of the people can afford that, despite rolex and lambo

BMW M is not so bad. 

Let me do a little investigation. According to dashboard this is a regular E46, not E46 m3 (which is far more expensive lol).
Since the wheel has perforated leather, this is probably a wheel from m3. Going futher - if the owner of a car has got a nicely packed E46, he would have to change its original wheel to m3 one.

I would say, that this is just a regular E46, probably 330i and without "m-package".

[Kylapoiss]

How could I be wrong or assuming, when I am merely attempting to make a parity out of your earlier post by summing it up?

Are you now qualifying what you said,  or are you asserting that I mischaracterized what you said?

I meant mischaracterisation. And I just woke up when I wrote that, I'm grumpy in the mornings

So what?  We get articles that go with the momentum all the time, and when the trend reverses, those articles end up being wrong.  You are not saying much by merely describing what a bunch of articles are saying, especially if they are just talking about the trend... and having higher (or lower) expectations depending on the then BTC price direction.

Was just trying to explain why I said what I said. I know I'm not saying much, as I feel that my knowledge on the subject is much much lower than of the average user in this thread.

Well, yes many of us had sentiments regarding the topping of the BTC that just kept going up, and up, and up, and I had similar sentiments.

It remains amazing how those bullish sentiments work, and the bearish sentiments work in similar ways, too.

At some point, any of us become wrong.

I'm still learning, or maybe I should say I'm trying to see some patterns in my own way, really hard to explain it and I lack english skills to do so aswell. So far I have been mostly right, though I don't want anyone else to follow my predictions, as I don't have any real TA to back it up.

Ok.  That is good, but that is not what you seemed to be saying in your previous post.

In any event, if you are not tweaking your previous prediction, then it seems that you are continuing to anticipate the BTC price to bottom out in the $3k-ish price territory...    What kind of action are you taking to prepare for your anticipation of the price movements?  Did you sell some or all, or are you planning to do it at certain price points?  Are you holding?  Are you planning to buy?  If you are planning to buy, at what price points would you do it?  Do you play with margin or not? 

It's hard to explain myself sometimes, as english is my third language and most of my writing comes from straight translations, can get messy like that.

Yeah, I'm still thinking it will dip down to 3xxx levels, probably on the higher end, again this is just an insight and no real info to back it up.

You know I have a gambler spirit, so my predictions and buying strategy should taken as such. I know it's risky, but I don't like too balanced way of thinking, it's boring I can win big and I can lose big, nevertheless I'm not putting in money I can't afford to lose (like I did in the past and had to sell everything in 2015, in the worst market possible)

I have X amount of FIAT ready to buy, of what I'm holding about 50% to try and buy the dip (3xxx), 25% of it is to buy when it touches 48xx and the rest will wait for 55xx. If it starts to shoot up, I will spend 50% of it on 75xx and will keep the rest for the time being, maybe play around with alts if the market shoots up and convert winnings from there to BTC later.

I like to keep things interesting and my heart pounding, being it from pumps or dumps, doesn't matter, as long as I can get some action.

[Torque]

I think China will be a driver of the btc price again, despite what people are saying I think they are close to disaster. I read a comment recently from a man who has a lot of business in China and has a lot of connections with high up party members and business leaders. Things don't sound good.

I agree. Other than ingraining a misguided sense of nationalism in the younger generations, China has done nothing over the past 10-15 years to become a more consumer driven economy. They have pumped billions of ponzi fiat money into their economy, which has done nothing except create rampant and irrational over speculation, especially in their tech stock market and in real estate.

The West is still the "consumer arm" of the entire world, and unfortunately the U.S. and other western nations can no longer hide the fact that consumer spending dropped off a fkn cliff about 5 years ago. The lack of consumer demand abroad is finally hitting China's shores, and they can no longer keep their own economy propped up with more fake borrowing and debt issuance.

It's all going to come crashing down. Soon^TM.

[Phil_S]

I'm taking a ride
With my best friend
I hope he never lets me down again

[Phil_S]

I'm taking a ride
With my best friend
I hope he never lets me down again

I hurt myself today
To see if I still feel
I focus on the pain
The only thing that's real.

Promises me I'm as safe as houses
As long as I remember who's wearing the trousers

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Jimbo should be along shortly to remind you he's still rich. Nothing to worry about.

[JayJuanGee]

How could I be wrong or assuming, when I am merely attempting to make a parity out of your earlier post by summing it up?

Are you now qualifying what you said,  or are you asserting that I mischaracterized what you said?

I meant mischaracterisation. And I just woke up when I wrote that, I'm grumpy in the mornings

So what?  We get articles that go with the momentum all the time, and when the trend reverses, those articles end up being wrong.  You are not saying much by merely describing what a bunch of articles are saying, especially if they are just talking about the trend... and having higher (or lower) expectations depending on the then BTC price direction.

Was just trying to explain why I said what I said. I know I'm not saying much, as I feel that my knowledge on the subject is much much lower than of the average user in this thread.

Well, yes many of us had sentiments regarding the topping of the BTC that just kept going up, and up, and up, and I had similar sentiments.

It remains amazing how those bullish sentiments work, and the bearish sentiments work in similar ways, too.

At some point, any of us become wrong.

I'm still learning, or maybe I should say I'm trying to see some patterns in my own way, really hard to explain it and I lack english skills to do so aswell. So far I have been mostly right, though I don't want anyone else to follow my predictions, as I don't have any real TA to back it up.

Ok.  That is good, but that is not what you seemed to be saying in your previous post.

In any event, if you are not tweaking your previous prediction, then it seems that you are continuing to anticipate the BTC price to bottom out in the $3k-ish price territory...    What kind of action are you taking to prepare for your anticipation of the price movements?  Did you sell some or all, or are you planning to do it at certain price points?  Are you holding?  Are you planning to buy?  If you are planning to buy, at what price points would you do it?  Do you play with margin or not? 

It's hard to explain myself sometimes, as english is my third language and most of my writing comes from straight translations, can get messy like that.

Yeah, I'm still thinking it will dip down to 3xxx levels, probably on the higher end, again this is just an insight and no real info to back it up.

You know I have a gambler spirit, so my predictions and buying strategy should taken as such. I know it's risky, but I don't like too balanced way of thinking, it's boring I can win big and I can lose big, nevertheless I'm not putting in money I can't afford to lose (like I did in the past and had to sell everything in 2015, in the worst market possible)

I have X amount of FIAT ready to buy, of what I'm holding about 50% to try and buy the dip (3xxx), 25% of it is to buy when it touches 48xx and the rest will wait for 55xx. If it starts to shoot up, I will spend 50% of it on 75xx and will keep the rest for the time being, maybe play around with alts if the market shoots up and convert winnings from there to BTC later.

I like to keep things interesting and my heart pounding, being it from pumps or dumps, doesn't matter, as long as I can get some action.

It may seem that I am attempting to "bust your balls" but it is merely an interaction with the substance, and your english (even if you are using translation software) seems to be decently good enough to get across your intentions.

I think that your tentative buying plan sounds good, and at least you are attempting to hedge a bit with buying and planning for incrementals.

You admit that your strategy is a bit of a gambling approach, and so at least you realize what you are doing in that regard.

Surely, my strategy has quite a lot less of a gambling approach, and currently, I am buying in about $300 increments on the way down, without really trying to predict exactly how far the price will go down.  For example if the price goes down to $3k, I will still have about 50% of my current fiat stash to buy further.  I don't expect the price to go down that far, but surely, even a 30% chance could end up playing out to become a 100% chance, once it happens.

I don't really see any utility with your plan to buy on the way up, if the price were to go up to $7,500.  That kind of strategy just does not make sense to me, even though I understand that a lot of folks play like that, and to each his own.. you have to accept and live with your own strategy, and something that works for you financially and/or psychologically, might not work for me (or at least might not feel good for me).

[somac.]

I think China will be a driver of the btc price again, despite what people are saying I think they are close to disaster. I read a comment recently from a man who has a lot of business in China and has a lot of connections with high up party members and business leaders. Things don't sound good.

I agree. Other than ingraining a misguided sense of nationalism in the younger generations, China has done nothing over the past 10-15 years to become a more consumer driven economy. They have pumped billions of ponzi fiat money into their economy, which has done nothing except create rampant and irrational over speculation, especially in their tech stock market and in real estate.

The West is still the "consumer arm" of the entire world, and unfortunately the U.S. and other western nations can no longer hide the fact that consumer spending dropped off a fkn cliff about 5 years ago. The lack of consumer demand abroad is finally hitting China's shores, and they can no longer keep their own economy propped up with more fake borrowing and debt issuance.

It's all going to come crashing down. Soon^TM.

FYI the comment from the person I mentioned

Bring China to its knees - um - you know what? China has just realised that this is a possibility. China is realising that its switch to a consumer lead economy vs "factory to the world" will take a lot longer than anticipated and the powers that are know that food security is still a major problem. It is clear from our sources that there was a massive misread on the part of the Chinese who thought that Trump would back down. There is a lot happening in China right now pointing directly to trouble brewing - from protests by retired military personnel to paint and faeces being thrown on XJP pictures and court buildings (some thoughts that this is being stirred up from foreign sources so expect another "westerner" crackdown). So all up, this is a very dangerous time in China, XJP can not appear weak to the populace, thus the massive propaganda campaign underway (from WeChat to subway advertising, singing people in subways and the usual rules for media outlets). The soybean tariffs will be paid by the government if the beans are added to the strategic reserve - this alone shows what is really happening.  And as for the slowdown, well it is real, from Evergrande chairman to gov officials, it has been acknowledged as happening, but GDP will still print 6.7/6.8%.
Trumps timing was sublime - he actually caught the Chinese in full Moutai celebrations over the Xi for Life event and in so doing, made sure that Xi has to respond. Xi's real problem is that any response he makes from Yuan deval (we are hearing 10=15% being accepted) to imposing tariffs to limiting imports hurts China more than anything else. Your comment about China suddenly not needing 20% of its IO supplies from Oz is interesting. I had the same comment made to me when I was in Beijing last month.