Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

 An opinion piece arguing that tethers systemic risk to bitcoin is overstated.

https://medium.com/@sylvainartplayribes/tethers-hold-on-bitcoin-s-liquidity-a-risk-assessment-c677c9eb5c3c

[JayJuanGee]

For the record I am fine with the price going either direction,
[...]
 since my cost average is still zero (I have gained more dollars than my investment and still have coins left).

I am pretty sure that I understand what you are saying here, which is that you have already pretty much pulled out all of the amount of your principle (the amount that you invested); however, with such a great investment like bitcoin, to me, it does come off as a bit lazy for anyone who presumes to be knowledgeable about bitcoin to be just floating around in the space with assertions of "zero costs" when the BTC price has gone from $250 to $19,666 and back down to a bit below $5,800 (so far).  Accordingly, there seems to be a lot of potential (and activism potential) there that is being glossed over, if you are merely asserting "zero costs" without attempting to get into either more specific measures of your investment situation or creating a more active (and perhaps aggressive) BTC investment approach.

i take it exactly as it looks, once your initial investment pays out in the tangible assets (money, physical items of worth, knowledge, whatever) its all gravy. i would think (hope) most people in this thread are in this category, ie playing with "house money." at this point even if my stack goes to zero the minute i type this i still made out.

now, one can always argue about lost profit opportunity from this point on, buts thats another animal to me.

Probably we think differently about this matter.

From my own history, I had never considered myself to be greedy in the pursuit of money, and that had not been a motivation of mine when it came to my life/career goals.  However, once I reached adulthood, and I moved out on my own, I realized that I had to support myself and I had to have a cushion in my budget.  My own pride and desire for self-sufficiency caused me to not want to go back to my parents for any reason to get a loan or to ask them for money - even though I am pretty confident that they would have provided me such a thing.. Therefore, I always thought that I needed a cushion, and therefore, I always considered that I had to monitor my system and approach to investing, to live within my means and to keep a certain aspect of my investment portfolio profitable. 

Part of my point in my above response is to suggest that in my own view and opinion, it is NOT enough for me to merely assert that "I got my principle back and I am 'in profits' " and I continually want to know more about my performance than those kinds of mere simplicities.  I don't necessarily expect others to carry out the same as me, but I still will question if anyone who seems to be asserting that it is enough data for them to conclude that they are "in profits" and they don't want to engage in further self-improvement. 

I am NOT referring to standards that are imposed on anyone from the outside but merely about standards that are imposed on oneself in his/her own aspirations and monitoring of his/her own progress.  I actually tend to resent when standards are imposed on me from someone else or someone suggest that I need to do x, y or z, but it does not seem unreasonable in my thinking to attempt to impose standards upon yourself and to attempt to monitor whether I am reaching my standards.. and that is part of the purpose of continued analysis rather than merely throwing up ones hands and asserting "I am in profits because I got my principle back."

[JayJuanGee]

yup, working 7am to 6pm. acquire more FIAT which we can exchange to BTC. get rich and retired in 2022.

Does the fact that you bought bitcoin like 5 years ago make any difference on the life you live right now moneywise, do you take profits and buy stuff you otherwise couldn't afford with your job, or do you just reinvest more?

im not Gyrsur but i mined btc back in 2011 onward and also buy/bought here and there over the years.

my answers are huge yes, big yes, and yes.

May I ask what is the percentage between total incoming BTC over that time and currently hodl'ed BTC is? Or maximum BTC hodled vs currently....

hard to tell. back when i started and btc was so cheap i didnt really pay attention. i got in it for the experimental aspect more than any profit. all i know is, aside from the first few years, every year i have less btc, but the real world value of that lessor amount of coins is more. usually much more.

as a miner you can look at it as dollar cost averaging, more or less. like i "buy" coin every week, non stop as long as i mine. then sell as needed.

ive mainly used btc as a kind of a "level up" thing. as in i mainly used them to "upgrade" stuff like vacations, toys, gifts etc to a higher level than i would of without btc. occasionally i would lock a chunk of profit up and put it into efts or other non crypto assets that (hopefully) earn returns in a more conventional, less risky way but of course with much less potential profit.

So it seems to appear that you are regularly taking profits in fiat and consumable goods, and you are not stacking aside bitcoin in a kind of fundamental view that bitcoin could potentially have more value some day. 

I understand that you have been in bitcoin longer than me, but largely I have considered bitcoin as something to attempt to stack up, so if I spend BTC, then I attempt to replace the ones that I spent.  I have been looser with myself regarding this in recent times, because I have established some ways to monitory my fiat versus BTC level, and created my own reasoned considerations regarding how many BTC that I want to maintain at certain price points, and if I have at least enough BTC to continue to reach that stacking BTC goal, then I don't mind shaving off a bit extra fiat for consumable goods.

[infofront]

Totally spitballing here, but this sort of resembles September 2015, right before we doubled by November.

Just spit-balling here....
What do people here think drives the price of BTC (either direction) the most?

Human psychology

[realr0ach]

Jew servant/grade-Z actor Obama gave a speech lying for an entire hour straight then proceeded to complain about "Nazis" and the fact nobody trusts the Jewish media.  The vampiric Yids are a paper tiger that's powerless without media monopolies and debt based monetary scams to prop them up.  Remove those tools and the light causes vampires discomfort:

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1038149214176464897?s=21

    

[goldkingcoiner]

Jew servant/grade-Z actor Obama gave a speech lying for an entire hour straight then proceeded to complain about "Nazis" and the fact nobody trusts the Jewish media.  The vampiric Yids are a paper tiger that's powerless without media monopolies and debt based monetary scams to prop them up.  Remove those tools and the light causes vampires discomfort:

But what if bitcoin itself is a jewish scheme to sieze control of the worlds money? What if satoshi nakamoto is actually satoshi goldberg? What happens then? What if jews are aliens? What if aliens steal our bitcoins? What if bitcoins are jewish alien technology?

[Aqualung89]

This year will almost end, and so far there is no positive air surge in the markets. This is how many people will know how many people will say something, but there is nothing definite.

[d_eddie]

Totally spitballing here, but this sort of resembles September 2015, right before we doubled by November.

Just spit-balling here....
What do people here think drives the price of BTC (either direction) the most?

1. Adoption
2. Use methods
3. Scarcity
4. Technology
5. News
6. Rumors
7. This thread
8. Whales

And which are the most predictable events or follow a pattern? And if we could conclude one of these is the actuality, does the above statement ring true?

Scarcity (long term)
News (short term)
Whales (short-medium term)

and Human psychology (always) as infofront said, since all 8 sources except scarcity can be traced back to it, ultimately.

[bitcoinPsycho]

[HairyMaclairy]

Weiss are idiots but it makes for a fun read

https://weisscryptocurrencyratings.com/news/4-bitcoin-bull-markets-big-lessons-learn-1308

In other news

[bitserve]

^^^LOL ^^^

[BonBuason]

Unpleasant reality)

[bitcoinPsycho]

Unpleasant reality)

maybe your reality . certainly not mine

[d_eddie]

Unpleasant reality)

Just a picture. How funny! Really original and subtle.
And the discussion! The supporting arguments!
What an invaluable contribution to this thread.
We have so few posts, we really needed that.
Thank you!












NOT!


You ain't gonna make many friends here, man.


(Strongly inspired by JJG for the "NOT" pattern. Credit where it's due.)

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/Cryptanzee/status/1038069103611797504

LMAO what they come up with 

[El duderino_]

not living @ a top 10 country 

[El duderino_]

price still the same looks like NOBODY was hearing my BULLhornblow.......



so just gonna try again .

serve me a weekendpump ...... mmmm saturday GF on the flight and a friend ask me to join for dinner ,there are worst things to do on a saturday
hopefully the liver can take another round

good its with a fellow coiner  (don't worry no pics this evening) however last evening i saw a tweet of a post .... friday,PROOF OF STEAK and a picture of the most delicious steak ever thought it was a funny one

hearing so many telling us that we go down and shit .... that its really looking like the reversal is coming when all expert en TA  says down it could probably go UP ......

[vapourminer]

i take it exactly as it looks, once your initial investment pays out in the tangible assets (money, physical items of worth, knowledge, whatever) its all gravy. i would think (hope) most people in this thread are in this category, ie playing with "house money." at this point even if my stack goes to zero the minute i type this i still made out.

now, one can always argue about lost profit opportunity from this point on, buts thats another animal to me.

Probably we think differently about this matter.
[...]
Therefore, I always thought that I needed a cushion, and therefore, I always considered that I had to monitor my system and approach to investing, to live within my means and to keep a certain aspect of my investment portfolio profitable. 

Part of my point in my above response is to suggest that in my own view and opinion, it is NOT enough for me to merely assert that "I got my principle back and I am 'in profits' " and I continually want to know more about my performance than those kinds of mere simplicities.  I don't necessarily expect others to carry out the same as me, but I still will question if anyone who seems to be asserting that it is enough data for them to conclude that they are "in profits" and they don't want to engage in further self-improvement. 

I am NOT referring to standards that are imposed on anyone from the outside but merely about standards that are imposed on oneself in his/her own aspirations and monitoring of his/her own progress.  I actually tend to resent when standards are imposed on me from someone else or someone suggest that I need to do x, y or z, but it does not seem unreasonable in my thinking to attempt to impose standards upon yourself and to attempt to monitor whether I am reaching my standards.. and that is part of the purpose of continued analysis rather than merely throwing up ones hands and asserting "I am in profits because I got my principle back."

im probably misunderstanding, but i read that more or less as "how is btc profit compared to my other investment goals that have the same amount of effort/capitol as far as my personal goals are concerned."

i do agree that if you have only broke even well thats better than losing but if the same amount invested in something else you knew of at the time would of done better then its less profitable than you could of done. so basically, a fail. but we can only be so knowledgeable about such things. we learn as we go.

so my investment in btc has fared unbelievably well compared to any other investments i have done. im so far past "made my initial money back" its stupid. now, i could of done better in the past (like buying early apple, microsoft, google etc stock) but the past is the past and hindsight can only serve as a lesson to learn. of my current investments, btc is king. even if it goes to zero today, as i have locked in so much profit.

so basically at this point im diversifying even at the cost of lower (but safer) returns but i am ok with that, im a belt and suspenders kind of guy. so i suppose one could say im leaving potential gains on the table but i realize that. when you are long term contingency planning, and take worse case scenarios into account, you know you have to throw money/time into things that may not have much, if any, returns. even to the point that that money/time is purely wasted if whats its guarding against never happens. but thats just like paying an insurance premium to me. i sure would feel stupid with all my eggs in one basket if that basket breaks.

so, at this point im more into making sure my wife and i have a secure future even if things go to crap than more profit. once i hit a certain level, my priorities shift. i am goal oriented, and once that goal is attained i turn to the next one. one can always go back and fortify any particular goal or position as needed later.

[savetherainforest]

Jew servant/grade-Z actor Obama gave a speech lying for an entire hour straight then proceeded to complain about "Nazis" and the fact nobody trusts the Jewish media.  The vampiric Yids are a paper tiger that's powerless without media monopolies and debt based monetary scams to prop them up.  Remove those tools and the light causes vampires discomfort:

R0ach... ... both ideologies are wrong! Even if I understand the hive mind that one person can drive to the system is much more efficient. But a hive mind society is mostly always doomed to fail and some kind of counter measures need to be made even if it wasn't a "hive mind society". As for now, when thinking of concepts, for us, for the future... the best outcome would be if we have equal chances for mostly everything (except single handed ruling the whole species) if a machine / computer program would manage everything on Earth.  ... or some kind of Syfy feudalism with walls, gates and bridges.