Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[goldkingcoiner]

I think it's kinda cool that while finex deflates,  stamp is holding steady.  I mean it would be even better if they kind of met in the middle. Wink  But I'll take the other.

We saw the highest spike in volume in 6 months.

That is not about tether IMHO.  There is some pretty good news coming in. And the fundamentals are starting to interrupt this bear a little...

The tether incident is like a very drunk friend that comes to a great party and makes everyone laugh for a moment before he vomits in the punch bowl.

I think in the end the party might just survive.

well, he probably won't be invited again. And while I personally like tether, I am also quite paranoid when it comes to it. But all that said, I am guessing it has around ~80% liquidity. I am sure they have not had 100% liquidity, at all times. Just observing their business practices, I also feel confident they are planning for a lawsuit, and to flee jurisdiction. And the fact that they keep dodging the audit situation and they fired their auditors, and hired a lawyer to issue an auditors report lookalike is a huge red flag to me.

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[kirreev070]

S for Stablecoin

[JayJuanGee]

According to Wekkel, Roach has a Lambo, supposedly.

I meant to refer to micgoossens, my bad. Mobile phones aren't all that.... 

Oh?   Seems that I misread regarding which one is currently sporting a lambo.

So, if it is Micpeep with the Lambo, I wouldn't have thought that micpeep would be in Lambo territory until about $75k plus.. .perhaps?     I am not saying that he could not afford one now, but I am assuming a kind of multi-millionaire status before a Lambo becomes part of an arguably reasonable fabric rather than a show-off piece that stretches the budget because the "owner" can barely afford it.

Maybe I missed some evidentiary posts in that direction?

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Seems like you missed that one .....

Hahahahahaha

I did not miss that subsequent post from you in which you denied owning a Lambo.  I made my above post, then I saw your Lambo denial - but that subsequent denial did not change my assessment of the situation (accordingly, I felt no need to amend or edit my earlier post)... 

By the way, since you seem interested in this topic about when or whether Micpeep is going to buy a Lambo, do you have a response to my earlier assessment that Lambo territory for you would be in the supra $75k BTC territory - that is if you are at all in the mood for Lambos?  What do you think?  Was I in the ball park? 

[toknormal]

The tether incident is like a very drunk friend that comes to a great party and makes everyone laugh for a moment before he vomits in the punch bowl.

They made a film about it.

[micgoossens]

According to Wekkel, Roach has a Lambo, supposedly.

I meant to refer to micgoossens, my bad. Mobile phones aren't all that.... 

Oh?   Seems that I misread regarding which one is currently sporting a lambo.

So, if it is Micpeep with the Lambo, I wouldn't have thought that micpeep would be in Lambo territory until about $75k plus.. .perhaps?     I am not saying that he could not afford one now, but I am assuming a kind of multi-millionaire status before a Lambo becomes part of an arguably reasonable fabric rather than a show-off piece that stretches the budget because the "owner" can barely afford it.

Maybe I missed some evidentiary posts in that direction?

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Seems like you missed that one .....

Hahahahahaha

I did not miss that subsequent post from you in which you denied owning a Lambo.  I made my above post, then I saw your Lambo denial - but that subsequent denial did not change my assessment of the situation (accordingly, I felt no need to amend or edit my earlier post)... 

By the way, since you seem interested in this topic about when or whether Micpeep is going to buy a Lambo, do you have a response to my earlier assessment that Lambo territory for you would be in the supra $75k BTC territory - that is if you are at all in the mood for Lambos?  What do you think?  Was I in the ball park? 

So you getting more intrested in our car choices these days ?? 

[JayJuanGee]

BTC’s price will be:  First column in 2-3 years    Second column in 6-7 years

Below $1k =             Less than 3%      Less than 1.5%

$1k to $3k =              8% to 12%              7% to 9%

$3k to $5k =             10% to 15%      8% to 12%

$5k to $10k =              10% to 15%      8% to 12%

$10k to $19k =              15% to 18%      12% to 15%

$19k to $30k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%

$30k to $50k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%

$50k to $100k =             12% to 15%      15% to 18%

$100k to $500k =              5% to 10%      10% to 15%

$500k to $1mill =              2% to 4%      10% to 15%

More than $1mill =             Less than 1%      Less than 5%


...we cannot rule out extremely bearish or extremely bullish scenarios, even though the probabilities seem to be on a kind of upwardly skewed bell curve.

That is a fair way of putting it, and yes, I would broadly agree with those 'guesstimates'.

'upwardly skewed bellcurve'   : I also like that term !   It can be termed bullish, even though there are very significant probabilities of loss in the next few years.

It does seem that frequently there are quite a few of us who may agree on the overall parameters, but then we also might get into some pretty BIG QUIBBLES regarding particulars... and especially we may get caught up on more loud arguing during higher periods of volatility when it can be quite difficult to get bearings on both what is going on and how any of us might think about what is going on while we are caught up in it.

Regarding your point about "significant probabilities of loss in the next few years,"  I largely agree with you that upside potential for bitcoin would likely remain significantly intact, even if from here on we suffer tremendously for two to three years.  It may be worse for getting back UP if either $2k or $1k support is broken for any significant period of time - which surely, I place the odds pretty low (at least at this time) for those kinds of levels of support to be broken (even though certainly not impossible). 

By the way, I am surprised that you largely agree with my numbers.... I would have thought that if you independently put your own numbers into those same slots, you are going to come out a bit different and even higher percentages for the possible downside?  Yes  or  no?  or does my guestimation range completely capture your current thinking on the topic?

[JayJuanGee]

According to Wekkel, Roach has a Lambo, supposedly.

I meant to refer to micgoossens, my bad. Mobile phones aren't all that.... 

Oh?   Seems that I misread regarding which one is currently sporting a lambo.

So, if it is Micpeep with the Lambo, I wouldn't have thought that micpeep would be in Lambo territory until about $75k plus.. .perhaps?     I am not saying that he could not afford one now, but I am assuming a kind of multi-millionaire status before a Lambo becomes part of an arguably reasonable fabric rather than a show-off piece that stretches the budget because the "owner" can barely afford it.

Maybe I missed some evidentiary posts in that direction?

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Seems like you missed that one .....

Hahahahahaha

I did not miss that subsequent post from you in which you denied owning a Lambo.  I made my above post, then I saw your Lambo denial - but that subsequent denial did not change my assessment of the situation (accordingly, I felt no need to amend or edit my earlier post)... 

By the way, since you seem interested in this topic about when or whether Micpeep is going to buy a Lambo, do you have a response to my earlier assessment that Lambo territory for you would be in the supra $75k BTC territory - that is if you are at all in the mood for Lambos?  What do you think?  Was I in the ball park? 

So you getting more intrested in our car choices these days ?? 

Lambo is not just a car, it is a lifestyle choice, and the purchase or aspirations regarding such can say quite a bit about a person.

I have posted my own views in the past about such topic, so I don't mind sharing some of my current thinking, either if anyone is interested - but I do frequently get accused of "oversharing" so sometimes I will attempt to self-regulate (believe it or not?)... hahahahaha

[JayJuanGee]

The little spike triggered my safety stop, so I gained 10% less than I could have if I'd closed at the local bottom. Not going to open another short for the moment.

Call me paranoid, but it was so quick and sharp that it looks just like stop hunting.

I am sure that you recognize that "stop hunting" can happen at any time, and it is part of the parameters of "playing around with margin." 

If you are going to use margin, you gotta be prepared for any manipulation that is quite hard to gauge, especially if you are not either the one doing the manipulating or have some kind of insider information about it.

Surely, it is better to fail to earn as much (such as 10%) like you mentioned, rather than getting caught with a losing position which is also part of the balancing of positions test that you seem to be considering when you first place your shorts and your seeming current reluctance to enter a short at this time.

[StartupAnalyst]

[micgoossens]

YEAH



NOW




  

[Hueristic]

10 pages today, I guess the price went up?

[micgoossens]

THEY SHOULD MAKE ONE FOR coiners and nocoiners as well......

or BTC'ers and Bcashers etc

 

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

THEY SHOULD MAKE ONE FOR coiners and nocoiners as well......

or BTC'ers and Bcashers etc

 

Apple just announced emojis for BCashers.

[micgoossens]

10 pages today, I guess the price went up?

200$

[micgoossens]

THEY SHOULD MAKE ONE FOR coiners and nocoiners as well......

or BTC'ers and Bcashers etc

 

Apple just announced emojis for BCashers.

the little shit image got a B on top of it ??

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

THEY SHOULD MAKE ONE FOR coiners and nocoiners as well......

or BTC'ers and Bcashers etc

 

Apple just announced emojis for BCashers.

the little shit image got a B on top of it ??

They're for disaBled people.

[micgoossens]

Preview of Q4 board meetings at major financial institutions. HUGE move from ⁦@Fidelity⁩

[StartupAnalyst]

THEY SHOULD MAKE ONE FOR coiners and nocoiners as well......

or BTC'ers and Bcashers etc

 

I agree

[JayJuanGee]

I appreciate your outlining of scenarios that you believe to be probable and most probable, but really it seems to me that you are not really accounting for the vast array of BTC price scenarios – even if you are attempting to stay in the middle of the road – and you are not putting your scenarios into a kind of probability range – which certainly each of us are going to frame these probabilities a bit differently.  Furthermore, it seems that even your optimistic scenario ends up with John McAfee eating his dick on TV.

I am going to attempt to elaborate on your scenarios by adding more scenarios and assigning probabilities to them.  By the way, I do agree with any premise that BTC’s performance in 6-7 years will partly depend upon how it performs in the next 2-3 years.

BTC’s price will be:  First column in 2-3 years    Second column in 6-7 years

Below $1k =             Less than 3%      Less than 1.5%

$1k to $3k =              8% to 12%              7% to 9%

$3k to $5k =             10% to 15%      8% to 12%

$5k to $10k =              10% to 15%      8% to 12%

$10k to $19k =              15% to 18%      12% to 15%

$19k to $30k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%

$30k to $50k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%

$50k to $100k =             12% to 15%      15% to 18%

$100k to $500k =              5% to 10%      10% to 15%

$500k to $1mill =              2% to 4%      10% to 15%

More than $1mill =             Less than 1%      Less than 5%


I’m kind of pulling the above estimates out of my ass (straight); however, my point still remains that each set of circumstances has probabilities, even though in the end, we are going to arrive at ONLY one spot once we get there.  Nonetheless, from our current perspective, we cannot rule out extremely bearish or extremely bullish scenarios, even though the probabilities seem to be on a kind of upwardly skewed bell curve.

In other words you believe the price will stay below 3K with probability 15% and below 5K with 30% probability for the next 3 years? I wouldn't give that much - 1-2% tops.

I was trying my best to use your initial framework, and then to elaborate on the same framework.

So, in the 2-3 years time frame that you had mentioned, I assigned less than 3% chance that BTC would be below $1k, 8%-12% chances that BTC prices would be $1k to $3k and 10%-15% chance that BTC prices would be between $3k and $5k.... I am not really attempting to predict what BTC prices would do before that 2-3year time window, but just attempting to approximate where it would be during that time frame (which actually is a broad time frame in BTClandia, but I was just attempting to work with what you gave me to my best guestimation).  of course if you pick a specific date, such as 2.5years - rather than a range, then that would create its own dynamics... So I don't really have a problem with selecting a range of dates and kind of ballparking a fair approximation of the price for that period.  By the way, if we tried to assess what the BTC price would be in 2017, the range would end up being quite broad, so we might even disagree about what the BTC price ended up being, unless we pick a specific date - but for the purpose of making ball park estimates, I find no problem using a range as long as we know what we are talking about (which is probabilities iof trends in a broader sense rather than getting caught in the weeds of whether we were "technically correct"). 

The most important question is when the effect of mass adoption (including Wall Street companies) is about to happen? I don't think we are near that event. Not even close. So the price will continue to follow its previous pattern.

Financialization of bitcoin is going to continue to be an evolving thing rather than "all of a sudden" thing, so even though I agree with you that BTC is in early stages of financialization, we cannot realistically act as if it is not currently happening behind the scenes (and sometimes in front of the scenes).  Think about 4 years ago, and the level of financialization then as compared with now, even if you might be disappointed that financialization of bitcoin has not evolved further, it has evolved quite a bit and perhaps beyond the wildest expectations of a lot of 2014 folks.

For the last 4 years we had 100 fold increase between the lowest point and the ATH in 2017. It is logical that the same increase will happen in a similar time frame unless the mass adoption is near completition.

Hey, you are not going to get disagreement from me regarding either the bullish potential of bitcoin or the fact that we are not even close to BTC mass adoption (likely way less than 1% of the world's population has any kind of stake in bitcoin or really knows what it is for that matter).  I am largely criticizing you for your seeming failure/refusal to assign seemingly realistic probabilities to BTC downside scenarios (which could include ongoing downward price manipulation beyond reason or expectations), and I think that downside has to be considered and assigned some probability in the thinking of anyone who really is attempting to honestly prepare himself (or herself) for a variety of possible scenarios - even if ultimately the bullish scenarios continue to have great ongoing likelihood of playing out.

But let's say that it goes much slower, say 1/4 of the speed of the previous pattern. In other words 6K->600k/4=150k is achievable price within 4 years. But let's say it is not highly probable. Then again, I think that 40K is absolutely normal price in the next 4 years.

Even though I don't disagree with your whole assessment about BTC bullish scenarios and even asserting that your viewpoint is conservative, I don't think that it is fair to get caught up in "pattern thinking" and presume that bitcoin has to follow some kind of pattern. 

In the end, whatever pattern evolves is going to show itself as it is evolving, but we, as individuals, are caught up in the pattern, and we should not be assuming with 100% that a pattern is going to happen - and likely assigning anything above 60% is also dangerous... even though if the pattern ends up happening, the pattern does become 100%, but that is an unhealthy way of thinking (both psychologically and financially imprudent) to be assigning high probabilities to events that have not yet happened - even when your being into bitcoin already seems to show that you are advantaged of knowing information that the mass public (99%-ish) seem to either not understand or continue NOT to act upon to accumulate BTC.   

[JayJuanGee]

BTC’s price will be:  First column in 2-3 years    Second column in 6-7 years

Below $1k =             Less than 3%      Less than 1.5%

$1k to $3k =              8% to 12%              7% to 9%

$3k to $5k =             10% to 15%      8% to 12%

$5k to $10k =              10% to 15%      8% to 12%

$10k to $19k =              15% to 18%      12% to 15%

$19k to $30k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%

$30k to $50k =             15% to 18%      15% to 18%

$50k to $100k =             12% to 15%      15% to 18%

$100k to $500k =              5% to 10%      10% to 15%

$500k to $1mill =              2% to 4%      10% to 15%

More than $1mill =             Less than 1%      Less than 5%


...we cannot rule out extremely bearish or extremely bullish scenarios, even though the probabilities seem to be on a kind of upwardly skewed bell curve.

wow this is amazing. So the price is going to be between 1000$ and 1 Million $. Nice guess....

Actually, TReano, you did not even summarize the predictions accurately, because I assigned probabilities to prices below $1k and above $1million, but I did not believe it would be necessary, at this time, to specify in more detail in the outside of the range.

Anyhow, that's how predicting the future works.  If you are attempting to be honest with yourself, then you assign probabilities to the future that are between 0% and 100% rather than asserting absolutism that merely simplifies without really providing guidance - beyond gambling.

Maybe I should not ask a troll/shill a question, but I will bite just to press my luck that you might provide a meaningful answer (low probability bet, but what the heck)... Here we go:   What is your system of predicting the future BTC price, TReano?    time frame of 2-3 years and 6-7 years?