Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

The Bitcoin price moves less than 1% and Bitmex shits the bed and loses everyone’s balance for an hour.  All balances showing as zero so no one could trade. 

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[jojo69]

I could swear I've heard this tune before

[slowlyslowly]

I know that it's McLaren 570S

Good

The BFX blog post does nothing to address concerns they are running a fractional reserve. Along with every other exchange out there.  

Well, if they are going to run a stablecoin that claims to be backed by fiat rather than a p2p community(like most cyptocurrencies), they need to be more transparent. Oh well, I am an American; so, I really can't use them ATM. (However, I do use other exchanges that use Tether, so could still be affected if something is wrong.)  My holdings with them are dust that I left when I made my exit after their 2016 hack.

examples like this come up every year or so and it is why the SEC is not going to approve an ETF for a very, very long time. Thegood  thing though is that this does not effect bitcoin one little bit other than make adoption slower by potential new people nervous about crypto. But the banks in Australia at least (and New Zealand since they are the big banks their too) are pretty good at screwing the people over. The interim report by the Royal Commission into the banks says about why the banking scandals happened that  “Too often, the answer seems to be greed – the pursuit of short term profit at the expense of basic standards of honesty.” That has to be one of the best statements ever about why bitcoin is needed - it gives people a choice and also control over what happens to them

[JayJuanGee]

I have considerable difficulties understanding any kind of investment strategy that buys while an asset is exploding 2x, 5x, 8x, 10x or greater, and then stops buying when that asset is lowering in price.

The strategy you describe sounds unwise indeed.

On the other hand, even if someone's bullish on a particular asset, it does make sense to wait for uptrend confirmation before buying a substantial chunk. In the case of bitcoin, which can explode 10x in short time spans, it's not unreasonable to wait for 2x before feeling confident it's a bull run, even for a medium-long term investor.

On the third hand (or is it one foot?), timing the market reliably is, as we know, impossible.

In my earlier post, I was referring to a situation in which someone has bought BTC near the top of the previous bubble, and then that same person get's stuck with an average cost per BTC that is way higher than the current BTC price (let's say average cost per BTC is in the $15k or greater arena and the person is about 50% in the red with his/her investment), and does not do anything (including does not buy more BTC), and seems to be contemplating selling the BTC that s/he already had bought rather than having some kind of plan that involved continuing to buy BTC in order to bring down his/her average cost per BTC.

It is a strange mentality because it seems to be investing based on very superficiality considerations (namely believing that the price is going to continue to go up and if the price does not go up, then either 1) there are opportunity costs to holding, 2) the price might go lower so can buy more BTC or 3) gotta get out now because scared.. blah blah blah.

Any sound investment should plan to budget in such a way that prepares for the down...

Hedging with shorts?  

You are likely razzing me, because you know that I don't really believe in playing around with margin.

I believe that anyone buying into BTC needs to learn the non-marginal (nonleverage) fundamentals first before advancing to playing around with margin - which likely drags folks into even more gambling mentality than they are already inclined towards.

in other words, playing around with margin/leveraging tends to be a much more complicated investment tool that requires even a greater set of skills than normal trading ---- such as mere buying on the way down and selling on the way up...  Even for very smart people, have troubles with the more basic strategies, so I would not recommend playing with margin/or leverage until after the person has developed a decently strong basic game, first.

And, even in bitcoin, the historical degree of volatility might justify that leveraging and/or margin trading is NOT necessary because the returns can be incredibly stupendous with a mere basic accumulation game that does not involve such additional skills and strategies that may just end up greatly increasing the odds for folks to end up losing in what seems to be an otherwise highly probable winning game.

[JayJuanGee]

The talk everybody is talking about, Blockstream Co-Founder Mark Friedenbach on how to increase BTC transaction volume 3584x with a soft fork:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8hJ0VTPE34&t=3723s

I watched the nearly 30 minute presentation that you pointed out, itod, and I am not sure whether I understand that significance - and how it is being talked about by everyone?  Seems to be some fairly radical proposals that could take 3-5 years to fold into bitcoin, even if there were consensus about the proposed direction(s) contained therein, right?

[nanobtc]

Also I would never trust my money to a bot. I mean cmon.

If you want to diss/whine on the concept of a bot, perhaps you should not use one. I trusted my millionth/billionth of a Dollar to code. Why would not you?

I mean, Get A Grip (Aerosmith Joke Here).

EDIT: If you cannot/do not grok the concept of Computer Things handling your USD$$?  Then perhaps you should not use a bot.\

PS: if you are worried about your millions and billions on a computer, you may best be served by not using Windows.  IMHO.

[JayJuanGee]

Very interesting metric from http://coinmarketbook.cc

So coins like XRP (77), BCH (69) and XLM (79) have very little liquidity (less than 0.3% of market cap). Whereas something like ETH (2) has 20%. BTC is overwhelmingly the most liquid with 1380% of market cap ready to buy.

https://twitter.com/jimmysong/status/1048954035951345666

Nice catch, micpeep.

Having more than 13x dollars set for BTC buy orders accros various BTC exchanges means that 13 times more dollars are on order to buy bitcoin than the number of bitcoins that are actually in existence  - but concededly the BTC market buy orders are for  BTC prices that are lower than the current BTC price, so that does not indicate that those dollars are willing to buy BTC at current prices, go figure?  

On the other hand, using that the metric of that same website (coinmarketbook.cc) there is no other coin that even comes close to approaching BTC in terms of the level of dollars asserting a willingness to buy... ETH comes in second place with buy orders that are a bit more than 21% of ETH's current market cap.

Edit:  Tentatively, I don't have any reason to believe that the information on that website is cooked, as bitserve suggests...   but I am definitely wiling to consider evidence to show that the information is "cooked"

Kind of shows how much shit (and misinformation pump some of the other coins are).  The pumpers of various other coins try to present information as if there is more demand behind their shit coin projects than actually exists, and frequently those various shit coins are merely pumping their product based on relatively low liquidity rather than a much more demand-based and fundamentally solid market (such as in bitcoin).

[Hueristic]

A bot was about to die from boredom, decided to take som action . lmao 
https://www.trustnodes.com/2018/10/07/bot-goes-wild-sends-bitcoin-to-nearly-8000-eth-at-300-ltc-down-to-1-on-bitstamp

[Paashaas]

Sidechains are bringing ICOs to Bitcoin. In this case RSK brings ETH to Bitcoin.

https://www.coindesk.com/sidechains-are-bringing-icos-to-bitcoin-and-that-might-change-crypto-funding/

[JayJuanGee]

So I've been so bored that I have been 100xing leverage on the bitmex testnet. I actually have made 600 theoretical dollars. :/ this does not make me feel better. So bored.

Why not practice with real money rather than "testing"?

Playing around with 100x seems likely to be a long term losing proposition, even if you might come out profitable in the short term.  That's probably why you are playing on test, rather than real.

[JayJuanGee]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

The ones that says : breakout anytime soon.... ,that are mostly the ones i watch 

Maybe i’m too big of a BULL from time to time

Well, we are in bitcoin for a reason, and that reason is to prepare for it to go up.  So finding sources with similar perspectives seems to be a good thing.

Of course, we should not want to get caught up in fantasy, and we need to be prepared for down.. yet we already know that there are a lot of party poop peeps out there who are projecting down, and they seem to have less justification for their position than the UP proponents - especially if we attempt to consider longer term time lines the probabilities seem to lean further and further into the bullish direction.. short term can sometimes be another story... .. even though "break out anytime soon," can even take place when the BTC price seems to be going down..  Has happened before, will happen again.

[elrippos friend]

Nice Lambo in Sydney



I know that it's McLaren 570S

Nice Lambo from the britts 

[Phil_S]

BFX blog post re recent market rumors

http://blog.bitfinex.com/announcements/response-to-online-rumours/

I'm not thrilled with the fact that they are holding over 150K BTC in one multisign address, even though it is a cold wallet. Hopefully it is more than a 2 of 3 multisign; otherwise, all one needs to do is compromise 2 of 3 keys to steal that amount of BTC. Bitfinex already had multisign addresses compromised in the past. Also, it would have been nice if they gave us some kind of supporting document listing their fiat holdings.

Edit: Just looked. It's a 3 of 6 multisign. I guess that is a little better.   I certainly hope they have the 6 keys stored in separate locations and have a way to airgap the signing process.

I bet it's something like this:

[bitserve]

Edit:  Tentatively, I don't have any reason to believe that the information on that website is cooked, as bitserve suggests...   but I am definitely wiling to consider evidence to show that the information is "cooked"

If you really believe there are 1.6 *TRILLION* USD already parked on the exchanges waiting to buy BTC (at whatever price, no matter how low) then it is ok. I, on the contrary, would need to be shown evidence of that outrageous claim to even consider it a remote possibility.

Other than that I guess it's just a matter of faith.

[crypmike]

Nice Lambo in Sydney



I know that it's McLaren 570S

Nice Lambo from the britts 

I would prefer this McLaren:

[Kylapoiss]

Nice Lambo in Sydney



I know that it's McLaren 570S

Nice Lambo from the britts 

I would prefer this McLaren:

I'd take this, when they used to be fast:

[kirreev070]

[Last of the V8s]

In Communist China, Bitcoin hodls you
@cnLedger https://twitter.com/cnLedger/status/1049201252628815873
Chinese guy sentenced to 3.5 yrs in prison and pay ~$14.5K in fines for stealing ~$15K worth of electricity to mine 3.2 $BTC. Report says the criminal was mining w/ his 50 miners (5 went broken later) 24x7 for months and profited only ~$1.5K

In ex-Soviet Russia, you just trade Bitcoin like a normal person

(Bitcoin; telephone number; we buy, we sell!)

And in Socialist America, bank robs you.

[JayJuanGee]

Edit:  Tentatively, I don't have any reason to believe that the information on that website is cooked, as bitserve suggests...   but I am definitely wiling to consider evidence to show that the information is "cooked"

If you really believe there are 1.6 *TRILLION* USD already parked on the exchanges waiting to buy BTC (at whatever price, no matter how low) then it is ok. I, on the contrary, would need to be shown evidence of that outrageous claim to even consider it a remote possibility.

Other than that I guess it's just a matter of faith.

Well, even though I am willing to accept the bitcoin buy order claim of the https://coinmarketbook.cc/ website as tentatively valid (rather than "extra-ordinary" as you seem to suggest), I can understand your point that $1.6 trillion is a lot of mulla.

I remain a bit unclear from where the website (https://coinmarketbook.cc/) is getting their BTC buy support data, exactly. The header of the page says that buy support is derived from the top 10 markets, but then the bitcoin section of the page currently says (and in Micpeep's post) based on 19 markets (without specifying which and without allowing to click a link for more information).  

I don't know whether those BTC related market numbers come from all trading BTC pairs within each of the markets (if markets are exchanges), but I can understand that the BTC buy orders could add up to a lot of bitcoins on order, if they are including all the places where bitcoin is traded or if they include all of the pairs including some of the hedging (which hedging might be a bit more difficult to determine in terms of the form in which the money would actually be there on the exchange - or if that could be fractional reserve rather than real money that is sitting on the exchange(s)).

Maybe someone could point out why the BTC buy order numbers are or are not true (such as from where the "markets" are derived), and personally, I don't have any good reason to doubt the BTC buy order number or that it strikes me as exactly "extraordinary" as you seem to imply - even though admittedly the BTC buy order number does seem to be on the high side.

Seems that you are quite a bit more of the skeptical one than me in this case.

(I was looking for a place to use this gif..... hahahaha)

[alevlaslo]

we can safely store so! http://docs.electrum.org/en/latest/coldstorage.html