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Question: Probability that we've seen the bottom of this bear market:
0% - 4 (2.9%)
1-5% - 4 (2.9%)
6-10% - 1 (0.7%)
11-15% - 1 (0.7%)
16-20% - 2 (1.5%)
21-25% - 2 (1.5%)
26-30% - 2 (1.5%)
31-35% - 1 (0.7%)
36-40% - 5 (3.7%)
41-45% - 2 (1.5%)
46-50% - 7 (5.1%)
51-55% - 8 (5.9%)
56-60% - 2 (1.5%)
61-65% - 2 (1.5%)
66-70% - 9 (6.6%)
71-75% - 8 (5.9%)
76-80% - 10 (7.4%)
81-85% - 13 (9.6%)
86-90% - 10 (7.4%)
91-95% - 7 (5.1%)
96-99% - 9 (6.6%)
100% - 27 (19.9%)
Total Voters: 136

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21127016 times)
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Spaceman_Spiff_Original
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October 10, 2018, 09:15:07 PM

I would hodl (anyone who isn't an idiot would) and post dick pics all over the forum. Not even the small winners have come forward. Until I see the 310 btc solution I would say there was never 310 btc. The smaller amounts, sure. Maybe.
BS, he provided a signed message which everyone can check.  If it was fake, he would have been called out on it immediately.  The only thing you might think is that he sent it back to his own address, but I highly doubt that.
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bitserve
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In "capitulation" mode until further notice. HODL.


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October 10, 2018, 09:18:04 PM

I would hodl (anyone who isn't an idiot would) and post dick pics all over the forum. Not even the small winners have come forward. Until I see the 310 btc solution I would say there was never 310 btc. The smaller amounts, sure. Maybe.
BS, he provided a signed message which everyone can check.  If it was fake, he would have been called out on it immediately.  The only thing you might think is that he sent it back to his own address, but I highly doubt that.


There is a fair chance this is a way to check if he can launder some "dark" Bitcoins... That has nothing to do with the fact that he proved he does indeed control the Bitcoins.

We will probably never know for sure. Anyways, it was an entertaining challenge... one that *maybe* created a new millionaire.
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October 10, 2018, 09:20:00 PM

An interesting take on the NVT Signal: “How to Value Cryptoassets (Part I)” https://medium.com/whaleblocks/how-to-value-cryptoassets-part-i-49f244962c7d

But somehow it seems off for the current situation (see link in my comment beneath the article).

I’m not sure how they account for transaction batching in the NVT calculation, as the number of transactions is falling due to batching.


Thanks, makes sense. I found some useful info here but it dates from May 2018.

Key paragraph:
Quote
3.4 Has transaction count become an unreliable measure of Bitcoin’s usage because of batching?
Yes. We strongly encourage any analysts, investors, journalists, and developers to look past mere transaction count from now on. The default measure of Bitcoin’s performance should be “payments per day” rather than transaction count. This also makes Bitcoin more comparable with other UTXO chains. They generally have significantly variable payments-per-transaction ratios, so just using payments standardizes that. (Stay tuned: Coinmetrics will be rolling out tools to facilitate this very soon.)

More generally, we think that the economic value transmitted on the network is its most fundamental characteristic. Both the naive and the adjusted figures deserve to be considered. Adjusting raw output value is still more art than science, and best practices are still being developed. Again, Coinmetrics is actively developing open-source tools to make these adjustments available.

I lack the knowledge to see whether and if so, how this would impact the NVT Signal.

The questions are whether NVT Signal looks at transaction volume and whether batching would distort that metric (not necessarily but that depends on how NVT is calculated of course). Google is not giving me articles with conclusive direction. Willy Woo seem to confirm that batch transactions do not impact his NVT ratio: https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/973708939714965504

I am curious.

Just speaking for myself, I use less transactions now than before.  I did use bitcoin for fun little purchases once in a while, but I stopped doing that after the fees skyrocketed. Until LN is in a sufficient mature state, I don't plan to make purchases in bitcoin again, only using it as a store-of-value and speculative instrument.
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October 10, 2018, 09:22:02 PM

Yeah, crap, I just learned about it today, started working on it for a bit.  I found the line at 310, but that's about it.  Then saw in posts that people were way past that already.
Don't think my knowledge, skills and intelligence would have been sufficient to find it if I heard about it from the start, so probably a personal time-saver that it was found today  Grin .

And nobody has come forward. No bragging no nothing. Seems fishy.

"A guy called "Lustre" told me he managed to decode it. Good job!

- Oct 9 2018: First successful registration

- Oct 9 2018: The 0.2 BTC wallet was emptied. Someone called "aaron" sent an email with proof he solved this one.

- Oct 10 2018: The 310 BTC funds were taken. Whoever won the first prize, please get in touch with me!

- Oct 10 2018: The 0.31 BTC wallet is yet to be solved."



I would surely not come forward if I had win. Would be too busy deciding between a bit less than 1 million after taxes or more than 2 million of "out of the system" money. Probably would have chosen first option in the end, but who knows.

I would hodl (anyone who isn't an idiot would) and post dick pics all over the forum. Not even the small winners have come forward. Until I see the 310 btc solution I would say there was never a 310 btc reward and the guy still has his own bitcoin in a different wallet... The smaller amounts, sure. Maybe. For shits and giggles.

It isn't a matter of hodling or not hodling. The moment you receive such a big prize you owe taxes for its actual value. If you don't sell enough to pay taxes and the price drops to $3000.... you owe more than you still have. Funny, uh?

P.S.: That reminds me to when Andreas received that big donation.... I hope he didn't hodl this time. Deep shit otherwise.
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October 10, 2018, 09:22:53 PM

Bitfinex at 100$ BTC premium Huh What is going on?

Tether is trading at $0.98 USD.  It’s a risk premium of dealing with Bitfinex.

Thanks, crazy times ahead maybe?

Actually this premium is quite reasonable. Bitfinex dollars are more valuable than Fed dollars! Bitfinex dollars can be instantly converted into bitcoins in contrast to Fed dollars that must overcome many bank-related obstacles till they're credited to your exchange account.


So much crazy information about Rippel and their involvement in BTC price manipulations. Problems with audits and not clear story with backed funds make this cryptocurrency a mystery. I am using it from start and I will say that Rippel opens the doors for many people to easily buy and trade BTC and other cryptos. I know for sure that they had a lot of impact on last year bubble.

Lately, with so many pegged coins, I try to split my holdings between few of them to minimalize the risk involved with "all eggs in one basket".
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October 10, 2018, 09:35:39 PM

Yeah, crap, I just learned about it today, started working on it for a bit.  I found the line at 310, but that's about it.  Then saw in posts that people were way past that already.
Don't think my knowledge, skills and intelligence would have been sufficient to find it if I heard about it from the start, so probably a personal time-saver that it was found today  Grin .

And nobody has come forward. No bragging no nothing. Seems fishy.

"A guy called "Lustre" told me he managed to decode it. Good job!

- Oct 9 2018: First successful registration

- Oct 9 2018: The 0.2 BTC wallet was emptied. Someone called "aaron" sent an email with proof he solved this one.

- Oct 10 2018: The 310 BTC funds were taken. Whoever won the first prize, please get in touch with me!

- Oct 10 2018: The 0.31 BTC wallet is yet to be solved."



I would surely not come forward if I had win. Would be too busy deciding between a bit less than 1 million after taxes or more than 2 million of "out of the system" money. Probably would have chosen first option in the end, but who knows.

I would hodl (anyone who isn't an idiot would) and post dick pics all over the forum. Not even the small winners have come forward. Until I see the 310 btc solution I would say there was never a 310 btc reward and the guy still has his own bitcoin in a different wallet... The smaller amounts, sure. Maybe. For shits and giggles.

It isn't a matter of hodling or not hodling. The moment you receive such a big prize you owe taxes for its actual value. If you don't sell enough to pay taxes and the price drops to $3000.... you owe more than you still have. Funny, uh?

P.S.: That reminds me to when Andreas received that big donation.... I hope he didn't hodl this time. Deep shit otherwise.

Thats kind of a shit system, bro. So sell enough for taxes and hodl the rest? Sounds good. In Germany you could later cash out at 100x the value a year later and not be liable for taxes on the profits. I wonder if the initial 310 btc would be taxed as a monetary gift?

Also me:

https://siliconangle.com/2015/10/29/mark-karpeles-spent-missing-bitcoin-from-mt-gox-on-prostitutes/
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October 10, 2018, 09:43:46 PM

There is a fair chance this is a way to check if he can launder some "dark" Bitcoins... That has nothing to do with the fact that he proved he does indeed control the Bitcoins.
I had not even considered this.  Similar to maffia guys buying up winning lottery tickets, you just say: I won this in a puzzle competition. An interesting concept to consider.

EDIT: Then again, the puzzle was out there, the private key was free to be extracted by all for over a week.  Would you really risk that chance if you are just trying to launder money? 
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October 10, 2018, 09:53:58 PM
Last edit: October 10, 2018, 10:11:08 PM by kirreev070
Merited by afbitcoins (1)

Bad day for crypto? Ohh... Wait

https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec_all
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October 10, 2018, 10:00:28 PM
Last edit: October 10, 2018, 10:32:36 PM by bitserve

There is a fair chance this is a way to check if he can launder some "dark" Bitcoins... That has nothing to do with the fact that he proved he does indeed control the Bitcoins.
I had not even considered this.  Similar to maffia guys buying up winning lottery tickets, you just say: I won this in a puzzle competition. An interesting concept to consider.

EDIT: Then again, the puzzle was out there, the private key was free to be extracted by all for over a week.  Would you really risk that chance if you are just trying to launder money?  

Yes, I would. Laundering is assuming losses (mainly coming from taxes and business overhead) in exchange of clean money. Reasonable risk if you ask me.

Not only that, the first few prizes (he says he plan to do more in the future) could even go to real third parties just to see if everything goes smooth.

That said, I have absolutely no reason to think this is the case, just suggested the "possibility.
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October 10, 2018, 10:21:02 PM


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October 10, 2018, 10:27:07 PM
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The point is market manipulation on a large scale exists behind the scenes that is never covered by the news / brought to light. Not all institutional investors were/are involved in the manipulation and therefore got burned by the crash earlier this year, while naturally, some HODL-ers are on the richlist (it's easier to have lots of Bitcoin if you acquired/mined it when it was cheap), and some retail traders have gotten lucky and hit it big. The point is the average Joe who is trying to get into Bitcoin is essentially robbed of his money by market manipulation he has no idea even exists.

But then again, market manipulation exists in other markets as well... stock, commodity... they just have more regulation, so it's easier to get caught.

Market manipulation does not exist on any large scale. Prove it. If retailers hold they win. Simple as that. If you are trying to day trade the chop, then you’re probably just a bad trader.

Well, you convinced me. I'm so glad I can now believe that people are naturally good and would never try to take advantage of any system for their own gain. I thought that there was, you know, pump and dump groups that used large sums of money to manipulate the market for their own profit, but I'm so glad you pointed out that error. It must just have been natural market forces resulting in unusual spikes in the price.

And of course I'm so glad I'm wrong that there are no rich people or rich groups that are manipulating the cryptocurrency market on a large scale for their own profit. I mean, geez, I even thought Jamie Dimon was a straight-up liar, but I must just really be misunderstanding everything he said while J.P. Morgan & Chase was doing the opposite.

Thank you for straightening me out.
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October 10, 2018, 10:41:00 PM
Last edit: October 10, 2018, 10:51:07 PM by Torque
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OT : Every wonder why people like Warren Buffett are so calm during major stock market dips like the one today?

It's because he and the other Billionaires know a secret. The secret is that the entire U.S. stock market is now being managed. Heavily, centrally managed.

You see, when the Fed pumps out hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars over nearly a decade, gives it to Central Banks, who loan it to corps with virtually no interest, and it has no where to go (e.g. not going to CapEx, infrastructure, wars, or wage increases, etc.) then it goes into stocks (and specifically stock buybacks). But, they can't just pump it in all at once, so it's a constant steady buying over years. Decades even. A melt up.

But they can't just buy in a straight line, because that would be too suspect and certain hedge funds couldn't make profit, nor traders, etc. So they "engineer" these little bull runs and corrections. But it's all just for show.

We're all in the Truman Show melt up. Doubtful we'll ever see a U.S. stock market crash again, because the Fed PPT is there to continuously save the day. The Billionaires know this. And it'll continue to work.... until it doesn't anymore. Queue the hyperinflation.

BUY BITCOIN.
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October 10, 2018, 10:51:00 PM

Not Russian, Dagestani Muslim*


Which is legally a part of Russian Federation, hence making Khabib a Russian. If you come from California you are not called a Californian, but an US American.


Got my lambo after bitcoin reaches 6,600$ yesterday  Cool


Ridiculous.   Roll Eyes   Is that you Joulian?   Buying a Ducati with your bitcoin at $450?


There is a concept. Delayed gratification.    Reminds me of some of the dumbasses such as roach, and some others talking about cashing their 2x or 3x bitcoin profits or pumping diversification into precious metals right before the May 2016 bitcoin uptrend.... and could have done much better with some will power. Or bitcoin hodl power.     

Buying a lambo is like buying a shitcoin that you can show off. They both lose value at about the same rate.


There is a thing called fun, doesn't that have any value? For me it has more value than money, life is for living, not always thinking what outcome is the best financially. And money is fairly easy to make anywhere in the world.

There is always a possibility that something might happen and/or someone might have personal reasons (an illness or smth) to do so, everyone can't wait for 5 years, maybe he still has a big chunk of BTC left Smiley

No one is saying not to have fun or not to take profits at appropriate times. 

You seem to fail to recognize that someone coming in and acting like moving up to $6,600 is a BIG price rise that allowed for a lambo seems to be trolling more than anything.  Furthermore it seems to be a kind of selling in a dip or a flat period or selling in a relatively ambiguous period that seems more and more like the end of 2015 and early 2016 rather than mid-to-late 2014. 

Furthermore, it made a lot more sense that guys (and gal) may have been selling some bitcoin on the way up, to $19k including locking in some profits and just removing some of the profits completely from the table...  and even could have made some sense if the price goes up a decent percentage and all of a sudden.. but we have not had that recently, so seems to be a trolling and shit stirring post that came from Daboy_Lyle. .
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October 10, 2018, 10:54:02 PM
Merited by yefi (1)

I agree, retail interest in Bitcoin is very low right now, which gives the sharks plenty of room to swim without interference. But once we see some news that spikes enough people's interest, the domino effect will take place like in 2017:

  • Institutional investors quietly buying Bitcoin...
  • Some announcement drives decent interest in buying Bitcoin
  • Bitcoin price goes ^
  • "Bitcoin Bull Run Again?" in news cycle
  • People start FOMO and buy BTC
  • Bitcoin price goes ^^
  • More news cycles about Bitcoin "Bitcoin Goes on a Real Tear This Time, Will We See $1,000,000? Jamie Dimon Says Yes"
  • More people FOMO buy
  • Bitcoin price ^^^
  • News cycles go wild, your grandma sees it and calls you to ask you to help her buy Bitcoin
  • Institutional investors taking profit $$
  • Bitcoin price ---
  • People tell themselves this is consolidation before more ^^^
  • Institutional investors finish taking profit $$$, start shorting
  • Bitcoin price \/
  • People say, "just people taking a little profit before hitting the REAL bull run"
  • Bitcoin price \/\/
  • People start getting a little worried about a repeat, not buying any more
  • Institutional investors get busy shorting
  • Bitcoin price \/\/\/
  • People start reverse FOMO, selling all their holdings
  • Bitcoin price \/\/\/\/\/
  • Institional investors cashing in shorts... $$$$$$$
  • Retail investors lose their shorts
  • Bitcoin bottoms and cycle starts all over again

I am not sure why this narrrative - that institutional investors always make the right calls and own the markets while retail investors always get killed- is so prevalent in crypto psyche. Most of bitcoin richlist are retail investors. Meanwhile funds drove the ICO craze and got killed. But whatever excuse you want to make as to why you’re not wealthier, go right ahead if it makes you feel better.

The point is market manipulation on a large scale exists behind the scenes that is never covered by the news / brought to light. Not all institutional investors were/are involved in the manipulation and therefore got burned by the crash earlier this year, while naturally, some HODL-ers are on the richlist (it's easier to have lots of Bitcoin if you acquired/mined it when it was cheap), and some retail traders have gotten lucky and hit it big. The point is the average Joe who is trying to get into Bitcoin is essentially robbed of his money by market manipulation he has no idea even exists.

But then again, market manipulation exists in other markets as well... stock, commodity... they just have more regulation, so it's easier to get caught.

This concept of being robbed by manipulation seems to be going a bit too far.  Markets have dynamics, and you gotta prepare for those dynamics if you are either investing or trading...
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October 10, 2018, 10:55:50 PM

FOOD FOR THOUGHT?
(From a late to the party crypto nobody)

Who here is buying burgers, cokes and smokes with BTC or any other crypto for that matter..?
Except for cheap, fast international transfers, quickly cashed out "before the price drops!" all crypto is used for nothing more than speculation on dodgey exchanges.
That being the case; I speculate that its going nowhere fast!

What is required is the education of our youth.
(Most of us are happy to pay MS for office despite the fact that there are many superior, free alternatives, because us humans are lazy to learn after around the point when our balls drop)

Ask kids to define money.
Once they realize that it's nothing more than a universally accepted token of value that's not easily counterfeited, they will realise that crypto is simply better money.
Then it will be accepted and used for whatTF it's supposed to be used for!
Ask lots of kids!  Then the sky's the limit!  Not before.

In short;  what all crypto needs is  to educate kids in crypto.
Set aside 10% of all crypto for crypto education if you want it to be the new paradigm?
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October 10, 2018, 11:01:15 PM


Wow, I didn't think it would be that soon - even trying did my head in!
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October 10, 2018, 11:03:12 PM

Sideways is the NEW standard when we get bored of it ..... we Will see ATH’s again, when we get bored of them we Will see dump/crash/corrections again when we get bored again.... we Will go sideways again

Only it seems i’m getting bored faster @ the moment as many others, going to sleep too get bored tomorrow again  Roll Eyes
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October 10, 2018, 11:04:10 PM

FOOD FOR THOUGHT?
(From a late to the party crypto nobody)

Who here is buying burgers, cokes and smokes with BTC or any other crypto for that matter..?
Except for cheap, fast international transfers, quickly cashed out "before the price drops!" all crypto is used for nothing more than speculation on dodgey exchanges.
That being the case; I speculate that its going nowhere fast!

What is required is the education of our youth.
(Most of us are happy to pay MS for office despite the fact that there are many superior, free alternatives, because us humans are lazy to learn after around the point when their balls drop)

Ask kids to define money.
Once they realize that it's nothing more than a universally accepted token of value that's not easily counterfeited, they will realise that crypto is simply better money.
Then it will be accepted and used for whatTF it's supposed to be used for!
Ask lots of kids!  Then the sky's the limit!  Not before.

In short;  what all crypto needs is  to educate kids in crypto.
Set aside 10% of all crypto for crypto education if you want it to be the new paradigm?

Oh man I had the perfect meme for this. Anyone have that comic strip of two stone age guys arguing about how silver is the true currency and gold is just a shiny rock when they see a guy who is selling stone age merchandise for gold in his little market stall?
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October 10, 2018, 11:08:08 PM

Bad day for crypto? Ohh... Wait

https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec_all

At least today, Bitcoin held up admirably as an non-correlated asset. A unicorn amidst the carnage. A virgin in the whorehouse.

Maybe tomorrow, investors will notice.
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Be safe, Elwar and Nadia !!


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October 10, 2018, 11:22:58 PM

^
Whatever happens in BTC true hodlers / coiners Will not be distracted by anything , when all crypto turns RED we just HODL

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