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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25459672 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13+ users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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March 08, 2019, 05:33:36 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

I could perfectly live with all 3 of those.... but never underestimate the suddenly big movements of BTC, i love those..... the ones when nobody expect them and everybody needs to adjust there TA’s Cheesy
But for normal moves those 3 are good and in line with HM’s 6K december price range

I am not trying to describe a preferred course, because I would prefer that the price just goes shooting up.

Instead, I am just thinking about what kind of scenarios (of course I may change my mind) would cause me to start to assert that we are no longer in a bear market.. and we have converted from bear to bull market.  Because ever since we dropped below $6k without bouncing up in a reasonably quick time, I converted my labelling of the market from bull to bear.   These are merely variations of conditions that I could think of that would cause me to convert back. 

I suppose there could be another kind of 4th circumstances that if the price breaks below $3,320, then what would it take for me to consider the conversion from bear to bull?, but since we have not yet broken below $3,320 to satisfy another possible scenario, I consider that kind of 4th condition to be too far removed from current speculation and NOT worthy of consideration until such 4th condition were to actually happen, if it does.
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March 08, 2019, 05:38:34 AM

I don't think it's been mentioned before but Coinbase is gonna add staking to its services :

https://bitcoinerx.com/exchanges/coinbase-aiming-to-beef-up-services-with-staking-after-new-hire/




Great. Nothing like trusting coins to a third party hot wallet...
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March 08, 2019, 06:27:57 AM

w00t, 4k broken on bitfinex

edit: bitfinex is much more pleasant then bitstamp, the prices are hodler friendlier their.  Grin
Searing
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March 08, 2019, 06:35:02 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

The fact of making predictions like that is 'scary' to me.....with last years track record....well....just reading any of the above spooks me these days Sad

(i used to be such a BTC crypto hero..er..now..meh...need to get my head on straight and just buy now I guess)

brad
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March 08, 2019, 06:35:42 AM

w00t, 4k broken on bitfinex

edit: bitfinex is much more pleasant then bitstamp, the prices are hodler friendlier their.  Grin

We don't use bitfinex here.

I see that you have heard of bitstamp... right?   Tongue Tongue
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March 08, 2019, 06:39:57 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

The fact of making predictions like that is 'scary' to me.....with last years track record....well....just reading any of the above spooks me these days Sad

(i used to be such a BTC crypto hero..er..now..meh...need to get my head on straight and just buy now I guess)

brad

They are not predictions.

Based on today's BTC market dynamics, they are conditions in which I would begin to assert that we have converted from a bear market to a bull market.

So I agree with you that currently times are a bit depressing, because we are in a bear market.  However, if any of the three conditions play out, then I am willing to convert my assertion about what market I believe that we are in.  In other words, I am attempting to be descriptive rather than predictive and giving three different scenarios to change the market label from bear to bull.


Edit:  By the way, decent battle going on for dominance at $3,900 right now, and some peeps would call this healthy organic growth.  Perhaps...it is. perhaps.

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March 08, 2019, 06:45:45 AM

w00t, 4k broken on bitfinex

edit: bitfinex is much more pleasant then bitstamp, the prices are hodler friendlier their.  Grin

We don't use bitfinex here.

I see that you have heard of bitstamp... right?   Tongue Tongue

I still don't understand what keeps Bitfinex steadily above the other exchanges by about $100... I know they are the biggest Tether exchanger, but it seems like people should have been able to find non-USDT ways to arbitrage their price down to an equilibrium after all these months.

Current prices

Bitfinex: $4003
Bitstamp: $3893
Kraken: $3895
GDAX: $3897

Huh something doesn't add up here
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March 08, 2019, 06:50:38 AM

Mmmm like this Philippine timezone

To live the pump——-> sleep the dump

Nice weather Nice green-ish btc prices
And my GF on my side
Life can be sunny and good from time to time (and away of them damn burgers... Roll Eyes )
JayJuanGee
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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


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March 08, 2019, 06:52:12 AM
Merited by nutildah (1)

w00t, 4k broken on bitfinex

edit: bitfinex is much more pleasant then bitstamp, the prices are hodler friendlier their.  Grin

We don't use bitfinex here.

I see that you have heard of bitstamp... right?   Tongue Tongue

I still don't understand what keeps Bitfinex steadily above the other exchanges by about $100... I know they are the biggest Tether exchanger, but it seems like people should have been able to find non-USDT ways to arbitrage their price down to an equilibrium after all these months.

Current prices

Bitfinex: $4003
Bitstamp: $3893
Kraken: $3895
GDAX: $3897

Huh something doesn't add up here

I think that it is margin trading too... but I think more importantly a bit of a lack of confidence in the various banking relations of Bitfinex and the fact that they are forced to use tether.  I don't think that it is a BIG deal because there have always been exchanges that are out of alignment.  Sometimes the out of alignment lasts for short periods and resolves and other times it lasts a lot longer, as this Bitfinex gap seems to be persisting. 

I also believe that when peeps try to read too much into the gap, they are getting caught upon largely distracting irrelevancies.... even if every once in a while some kind of interesting analysis may come of out such price gap focuses.
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March 08, 2019, 06:53:24 AM


Probably not. I really haven't had cause to look into Binance Coin. But I'm guessing it is probably not publicly mineable. Probably not even mined? If such, it is arguably not even a cryptocurrency, in the proper definition of the word.
nutildah
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March 08, 2019, 06:54:24 AM

Mmmm like this Philippine timezone

To live the pump——-> sleep the dump

Nice weather Nice green-ish btc prices
And my GF on my side
Life can be sunny and good from time to time (and away of them damn burgers... Roll Eyes )

Have you tried Jollibee yet? I can power down 3 cheesy yum burgers, no problem.

Chowking is also pretty dope. If you get the chance, try to have somebody make you some pork adobo somewhere. That's like their signature dish (of the nation).

I notice the biggest BTC price shifts tend to happen between 8 pm and 10 pm on Mondays (Philippines time zone), that's when the markets are just waking up for the week on the east coast (of the U.S.).
El duderino_
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March 08, 2019, 07:01:04 AM

Mmmm like this Philippine timezone

To live the pump——-> sleep the dump

Nice weather Nice green-ish btc prices
And my GF on my side
Life can be sunny and good from time to time (and away of them damn burgers... Roll Eyes )

Have you tried Jollibee yet? I can power down 3 cheesy yum burgers, no problem.

Chowking is also pretty dope. If you get the chance, try to have somebody make you some pork adobo somewhere. That's like their signature dish (of the nation).

I notice the biggest BTC price shifts tend to happen between 8 pm and 10 pm on Mondays (Philippines time zone), that's when the markets are just waking up for the week on the east coast (of the U.S.).

Haha we aren’t eating meat anymore for over 3 months or so..... my GF quitted and i followed Roll Eyes
nutildah
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March 08, 2019, 07:03:08 AM

Haha we aren’t eating meat anymore for over 3 months or so..... my GF quitted and i followed Roll Eyes

Oh man. Well don't forget to take some sort of vitamins and/or iron supplements! Lest you get weak and soft, make you want to dump your BTC as a side effect of vegetarianism...
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March 08, 2019, 07:05:20 AM

LastoftheV8TrilemmaShills is now filing FALSE REPORTS against me.  ...

I’m not gonna search for things..... but i just know V8 isn’t really someone thats a liar.....

Yeah, I was as surprised as anyone might be to learn that V8 is a whiny bitch in the shadows. And that's all I'm gonna need to say about that.
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March 08, 2019, 07:12:51 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), nutildah (1), d_eddie (1)

w00t, 4k broken on bitfinex

edit: bitfinex is much more pleasant then bitstamp, the prices are hodler friendlier their.  Grin

We don't use bitfinex here.

I see that you have heard of bitstamp... right?   Tongue Tongue

I still don't understand what keeps Bitfinex steadily above the other exchanges by about $100... I know they are the biggest Tether exchanger, but it seems like people should have been able to find non-USDT ways to arbitrage their price down to an equilibrium after all these months.

Current prices

Bitfinex: $4003
Bitstamp: $3893
Kraken: $3895
GDAX: $3897

Huh something doesn't add up here

The arbitrage with Bitcoin to fiat is very risky. First, Bitfinex is nothing like the US exchanges (which are under the supervision of SEC) and is known with their "hacks" and "bank problems". This means your money can be stolen and you can't do anything about it. Second: if you buy at Bitstamp and transfer the Bitcoins to Bitfinex, you have to wait several hours during which time the price may dip. And finally, you are allowed to withdraw fiat only once per month a sum less than 1 mil$. Otherwise, you have to pay 3% fee. And since USDT is traded 2% higher than the USD, you are not able to withdraw on a profit USDT. Speaking of arbitrage, it is better to use ETH or other alt, because they are faster. But the premium is smaller, I think 1.5%. Anyway, it is not worth the risk IMO.

Edit. This does not mean that there are no people who take advantage of this arbitrage possibility. I am sure most  of the miners prefer to sell in Bitfinex to have a bit bigger profit. And since the volume is very low recently like 1.8K for a time last Sunday and 6-7K like today, this may have a significant negative impact on the price. If the price is the same, not many miners will risk to use Bitfinex. So for me, the sooner this gap is closed, the better.
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March 08, 2019, 07:13:25 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)


And my GF on my side

Hey mic (and others), don't forget what today is :



And roach, get some flowers for... your sister.
HairyMaclairy
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March 08, 2019, 07:13:53 AM
Last edit: March 08, 2019, 07:25:25 AM by HairyMaclairy

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

1) February 2020

2) February 2020

3) February 2020 December 2019
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March 08, 2019, 07:28:55 AM

w00t, 4k broken on bitfinex

edit: bitfinex is much more pleasant then bitstamp, the prices are hodler friendlier their.  Grin

We don't use bitfinex here.

I see that you have heard of bitstamp... right?   Tongue Tongue

I still don't understand what keeps Bitfinex steadily above the other exchanges by about $100... I know they are the biggest Tether exchanger, but it seems like people should have been able to find non-USDT ways to arbitrage their price down to an equilibrium after all these months.

Current prices

Bitfinex: $4003
Bitstamp: $3893
Kraken: $3895
GDAX: $3897

Huh something doesn't add up here

The arbitrage with Bitcoin to fiat is very risky. First, Bitfinex is nothing like the US exchanges (which are under the supervision of SEC) and is known with their "hacks" and "bank problems". This means your money can be stolen and you can't do anything about it. Second: if you buy at Bitstamp and transfer the Bitcoins to Bitfinex, you have to wait several hours during which time the price may dip. And finally, you are allowed to withdraw fiat only once per month a sum less than 1 mil$. Otherwise, you have to pay 3% fee. And since USDT is traded 2% higher than the USD, you are not able to withdraw on a profit USDT. Speaking of arbitrage, it is better to use ETH or other alt, because they are faster. But the premium is smaller, I think 1.5%. Anyway, it is not worth the risk IMO.

A lot of people still trust them, it would appear, with a $24.5 million BTC/USD daily volume. But you're likely right -- it exists for a reason, such things always do. There's no such thing as a free lunch.

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March 08, 2019, 07:36:26 AM

I'm currently thinking three scenarios that would get us out of my own personal consideration of this current bear market and into a conceptual bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Anyone going to label my tentative "getting out of a bear market and into a bull market" conditions ridiculous?

Okay with 1 and 2 and not for #3.
These scenarios can possibly happen, this market is never easy to predict as it's full of surprises.
But my prediction is at least $6k this year because from that price, we dropped to the current price.
JayJuanGee
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March 08, 2019, 07:46:27 AM

Mmmm like this Philippine timezone

To live the pump——-> sleep the dump

Nice weather Nice green-ish btc prices
And my GF on my side
Life can be sunny and good from time to time (and away of them damn burgers... Roll Eyes )

Have you tried Jollibee yet? I can power down 3 cheesy yum burgers, no problem.

Chowking is also pretty dope. If you get the chance, try to have somebody make you some pork adobo somewhere. That's like their signature dish (of the nation).

I notice the biggest BTC price shifts tend to happen between 8 pm and 10 pm on Mondays (Philippines time zone), that's when the markets are just waking up for the week on the east coast (of the U.S.).

I thought that Philippines was becoming a bit more BTC friendly, and I recall one of the Philippines banks was going to be providing Bitcoin teller machines  (BTMs). 

Not that I am encouraging spending BTC, but sometimes it can be nice to have possible easy access to emergency funds through BTC, especially when traveling, right?  Do you see any BTC teller machines? around manila or other cities?
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