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Question: Which price is bitcoin going to reach first? (credits to Jay)
$25K - 56 (34.6%)
$50K - 106 (65.4%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25375814 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13 users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on bitcoin


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August 16, 2019, 07:49:28 PM

Everyone waiting 8k levels again. Previous btc dump, almost everyone waited for 8500 or 7200 levels to buy but it bounced before, at 9k. So the majority didn't fill their bags. At 3500 usd everyone waited 3k or lower, but it bounced before that at 3100/3200. Some are still waiting for 3k and 1.400 usd.

Hahahahaha...

You got that right.   


There were a shitload of folks waiting for sub-$500 coins in early 2017, and the best that they could have been able to get would have been in the upper $800s and that was a decently brief dip, including the last time to get sub 4 digit bitcoins, and many of those folks waited through a decent part of 2017 for such, while the BTC price went in the opposite direction, and it should have been more than clear by mid August 2017 when BTC prices went above $3k, they were not returning to sub-$500 or even easier scenarios of sub 4 digits.  Pobrecitos (not).
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August 16, 2019, 07:57:45 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

...

The point is, JJG, none of those have the potential to make a x10 jump in 2-3 years.

Fair enough point, but I still would be hesitant to put all my eggs in one basket, no matter what my age.  Of course, if you are real young and barely just living on your own (moving out of the parent house or even living with parents and in the early stages of building your wealth), then in those cases, you usually do start with just investing in one thing while you are building your portfolio, and then you might start to expand out with the passage of time.  If you only have one investment because you are just starting to invest, then probably in those kinds of circumstances, you might start out with bitcoin... perhaps?  Those are somewhat individually tailored decisions concerning how diversified any person needs to be in terms of cash flow and projected expenses, too.



Gold probably do but I don't think you'll be able to enjoy those profits when it does. Gold is a bit complicated.

When Gold becomes "the shit", you'll be trading your stash for clean water, bullets etc you got the picture.

You are definitely not dumping them for lambos. You'll be afraid to show your face in public in a time like that.

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, and yeah, I agree that we should not be making the bulk of our investment decisions and/or allocations based on such unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there, such as roach and like-thinking acolytes of similar dumbass mindsets)

Noobs do yourself a favour.  every post you see by this cunt ignore. 

Seems like I have slightly better credibility in these parts than you, no?  (that's a rhetorical question, which means that you do not need to answer it). 


He is has a very low IQ, he is always wrong on the price and he doesn't understand the difference between bitcoin and paypal (no joke). 

Oh my!!!!!  You should speak for yourself.  I don't tend to make predictions about bitcoin price, I largely tend to merely criticize dumbasses like you who seem to know so much about where the BTC price is going, but seem to not get it right (including your dumbass decision to sell all your coins at $6k, and your ongoing failure and refusal to recognize that you are the dumber one in the bitcoin price prediction realm and even acting on your dumb gambling inclinations).

He once thought an elliot wave was something Neil deGrasse Tyson spotted as proof of a black hole.   He thinks TA was a member of the A-Team, EMA is a flightless bird from Australia and thought bitcoin could never go below 10k again.

You are just making shit up.

He won't take a challenge!  offering 10 BTC bet (he won't take it)...   


What the fuck are you talking about?  At best, you probably never even had 10BTC when you sold your .5-ish BTC at $6k that are now only worth around .29BTC right now...   Anyhow, I don't need to take bets from stupid-ass troll shill jobs like yourself in order to retain credibility in terms of either my representations or my inquiries into the ongoing misinformation and deceptions of some posters, yourself included in that group of shill/trolls.
JayJuanGee
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August 16, 2019, 08:01:13 PM
Last edit: August 16, 2019, 08:12:51 PM by JayJuanGee

Sorry to interrupt, but can someone please let me know if I should be panicking at this point, because, TBH, I'm seriously, SERIOUSLY thinking of just tuning out anything Bitcoin related until after the halvening and just focus on IRL stuff for a while.

Think I'm finally finding a good IRL routine that is keeping me somewhat entertained and productive. Starting to really get the hang of this retirement thing.

Watching Bitcoin tank like it is, just makes me sad. I don't need it until 2021-ish anyway...

Bah. Someone hold me. No homo.


Tune the fuck out.  You don't seem to be able to handle it anyhow.  These are normal BTC price movements, including 20%, 30% and sometimes even 50% corrections during a bull market, and you keep wanting to panic from these kinds of normal BTC price movements.

People held from $20k to $3k but somehow shitting in their pants after a $1k a $2k dump..

We need to stay realistic the price went up with $10k, what we see now is a mini bear market beeing played out.

I would not characterize this as a "mini bear market."  It's just a normal correction and consolidation that has bounced to the 30% to 35% levels from the top of $13,880.   If we start getting 50% correction territory, then maybe at that point we might want to consider "mini-bear" language.
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August 16, 2019, 08:03:03 PM

that is Huh
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August 16, 2019, 08:05:28 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Seeing the article on CoinDesk about Bakkt reminded me of my magnr.com, where I use to speculate on margin about half a decade ago. Anyway, I went to the site and they seem to gone except some splash page and a broken link for previous customers.

Anyway, I tried googling them for more information about their demise(?), but cant find anything informative. Figured the best place to ask is here amongst my fellow speculators. Does anyone know what happened to them? Do they have a new site?  Huh

The article was updated here:
https://www.coindesk.com/bakkt-says-its-cleared-to-launch-bitcoin-futures-next-month
See also their official announcement:
https://medium.com/bakkt-blog/cleared-to-launch-8dfc3e6f9ed0
Searing
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August 16, 2019, 08:11:57 PM

Where is your sidekick ibian? He is not around for a while is he? I don't remember seeing him lately.

He always disappears during "sailing season".

That bastard. Without us.



Ill get one too when I become rich.

I'm pretty sure the two hot women at the end of the boat picture, would cost a lot more to maintain than buying/upkeep on the boat!

Just saying. Smiley

Oh, re-read, you meant the boat, silly me.

My own fantasies got in the way of your boat purchase fantasy.

My bad. Smiley

Brad



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August 16, 2019, 08:13:17 PM

Sorry to interrupt, but can someone please let me know if I should be panicking at this point, because, TBH, I'm seriously, SERIOUSLY thinking of just tuning out anything Bitcoin related until after the halvening and just focus on IRL stuff for a while.

Think I'm finally finding a good IRL routine that is keeping me somewhat entertained and productive. Starting to really get the hang of this retirement thing.

Watching Bitcoin tank like it is, just makes me sad. I don't need it until 2021-ish anyway...

Bah. Someone hold me. No homo.


Tune the fuck out.  You don't seem to be able to handle it anyhow.  These are normal BTC price movements, including 20%, 30% and sometimes even 50% corrections during a bull market, and you keep wanting to panic from these kinds of normal BTC price movements.

Yeah, Bob chill out man. You’ve been through a couple of bitcoin cycles now so you know what to expect. I’m the same, I panic sometimes but look at the bigger picture. You’re already independently wealthy, I can promise you that you’ll be a lot richer at the end of 2021. Everything before then is just noise. The halvening will do what it always does - Limit the supply & with increased demand comes higher prices.

Moon by the end of 2021!

Smile!
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August 16, 2019, 08:18:00 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

Sorry to interrupt, but can someone please let me know if I should be panicking at this point, because, TBH, I'm seriously, SERIOUSLY thinking of just tuning out anything Bitcoin related until after the halvening and just focus on IRL stuff for a while.

Think I'm finally finding a good IRL routine that is keeping me somewhat entertained and productive. Starting to really get the hang of this retirement thing.

Watching Bitcoin tank like it is, just makes me sad. I don't need it until 2021-ish anyway...

Bah. Someone hold me. No homo.


Tune the fuck out.  You don't seem to be able to handle it anyhow.  These are normal BTC price movements, including 20%, 30% and sometimes even 50% corrections during a bull market, and you keep wanting to panic from these kinds of normal BTC price movements.

Yeah, Bob chill out man. You’ve been through a couple of bitcoin cycles now so you know what to expect. I’m the same, I panic sometimes but look at the bigger picture. You’re already independently wealthy, I can promise you that you’ll be a lot richer at the end of 2021. Everything before then is just noise. The halvening will do what it always does - Limit the supply & with increased demand comes higher prices.

Moon by the end of 2021!

Smile!

My mental 'safety net' price on Bitcoin is $11,111.12 (do the math, you can figure it out) Smiley

All it has to do is stay above that price, and I'm golden.

Sorry, all this crypto is MY beanie baby/fantasy coin, thus the above shall be at that price. I have so sworn!



(Sorry, occasionally, I snap and Bitcoin is all about 'me') Smiley

Brad


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August 16, 2019, 08:20:11 PM

Guys, I've decided to give my alter ego, r0ach, a vacation. I'll be posting with this account for a while.

As long as you don't make a move to merge the two personas, I'm good.
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August 16, 2019, 08:21:02 PM

Its strangely quiet around here.  JJG took a day off  Shocked, Roach not enlightening us with rare never before seen knowledge about metals, centralization designs, and pyramids.  



I did stop with quoting the troll Roll Eyes

But indeed with a small drop no r0ach ....... that is strange

He is secretly in love w your woman. If you dont quote him it bothers him lol Cheesy
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August 16, 2019, 08:21:58 PM
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You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, ... unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there)

Q: Given an unending supply of inflationary medium, how long can a balloon keep expanding?

A: Exactly until the internal inflationary forces overcome structural integrity, causing balloon to burst.

- jbreher, proud monetary armageddonist nutjob since long before the turn of the millennia


Noted:  Jbreher admits to being one of the armagaeddon nutjobs.  Hopefully, you, jbreher, are not staking too much of actual value (more  than 10% - or even up to 20% in really seemingly stupid-ass crazy dedication)  on such an unlikely scenario.

I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.
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August 16, 2019, 08:25:47 PM
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Where is your sidekick ibian? He is not around for a while is he? I don't remember seeing him lately.

He always disappears during "sailing season".

That bastard. Without us.



Ill get one too when I become rich.

I'm pretty sure the two hot women at the end of the boat picture, would cost a lot more to maintain than buying/upkeep on the boat!

Just saying. Smiley

Oh, re-read, you meant the boat, silly me.

My own fantasies got in the way of your boat purchase fantasy.

My bad. Smiley

Brad




It depends on which country those hot girls are, better pick the girls from your local and if you want to cut the maintenance cost for girls then marry them. Cheesy

I suppose. I'm in the Midwest, so to save space I could get a local girl that would take up the same room as both girls on the boat together. Nah!

Two or None! Is my new motto!

(I should make a flag)

Brad
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August 16, 2019, 08:28:21 PM

Once you get to the filthy rich level, girls will come as a side gift for free.

I can't imagine myself paying for girls especially after getting rich.  Cool

Girls will do anything just to take those instagram photos.
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August 16, 2019, 08:29:20 PM

I start to think that 2020 halving is going to be really important for Bitcoin.
If the SF model is right predicting the price then we will see  a spectacular adoption and price acceleration (more people upfronting the following 8x 2024 halving price improvement).
Otherwise, well, last cryptowinter will be remembered like a small selloff.



https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1162430634872233986
Quote
#bitcoin price is above AND below stock to flow model value every single year. 2020-2021 will be the ultimate test for the S2F hypothesis 🚀




Of course , Fillippone knows which of the two scenario will be realised....
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August 16, 2019, 08:29:45 PM

Guys, I've decided to give my alter ego, r0ach, a vacation. I'll be posting with this account for a while.

Just glad to see you post again Cheesy

Oh shit mic, I just remembered your BAKKT game. They are confirmed as commencing trading 23rd September. Your BAKKT thread will finally have a winner soon Cheesy

I thought you were safe there & would never have to pay anybody out as I didn’t think they’d ever get the approvals/license.

Edit - I found the thread. You said the 17th day AFTER they open -

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5083242.0

I never was safe Smiley there is always a closing date/moment and with BAKKT was end 2019 always payday Roll Eyes
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August 16, 2019, 08:33:43 PM

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, ... unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there)

Q: Given an unending supply of inflationary medium, how long can a balloon keep expanding?

A: Exactly until the internal inflationary forces overcome structural integrity, causing balloon to burst.

- jbreher, proud monetary armageddonist nutjob since long before the turn of the millennia


Noted:  Jbreher admits to being one of the armagaeddon nutjobs.  Hopefully, you, jbreher, are not staking too much of actual value (more  than 10% - or even up to 20% in really seemingly stupid-ass crazy dedication)  on such an unlikely scenario.
I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.
I might subscribe to this, but the question is what form it would take.
Imagine for a moment that ALL bonds in developed countries (or at least up to 30 year) are with negative yield (like in Germany right now).
What would it mean?
To me, it would almost certainly mean that you would be charged for deposits. In a big picture this would look like system malfunction.
El-Erian recently said that fin system is not set up to operate with negative yields. Think of insurance and pension funds, for example.
In this situation, who would have deposits larger than a month or two of expenses?
As far as reset itself is concerned, the question is how it might happen and would it affect those pernicious negative rates?

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August 16, 2019, 08:43:37 PM

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, ... unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there)

Q: Given an unending supply of inflationary medium, how long can a balloon keep expanding?

A: Exactly until the internal inflationary forces overcome structural integrity, causing balloon to burst.

- jbreher, proud monetary armageddonist nutjob since long before the turn of the millennia


Noted:  Jbreher admits to being one of the armagaeddon nutjobs.  Hopefully, you, jbreher, are not staking too much of actual value (more  than 10% - or even up to 20% in really seemingly stupid-ass crazy dedication)  on such an unlikely scenario.
I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.
I might subscribe to this, but the question is what form it would take.
Imagine for a moment that ALL bonds in developed countries (or at least up to 30 year) are with negative yield (like in Germany right now).
What would it mean?
To me, it would almost certainly mean that you would be charged for deposits. In a big picture this would look like system malfunction.
El-Erian recently said that fin system is not set up to operate with negative yields. Think of insurance and pension funds, for example.
In this situation, who would have deposits larger than a month or two of expenses?
As far as reset itself is concerned, the question is how it might happen and would it affect those pernicious negative rates?



Nothing a world war wouldn't solve.

Kill a few hundred millions of people and watch how high interest rates will go.

This looks like sarcasm to you probably but it isn't. This ends only one way. War.
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August 16, 2019, 08:45:12 PM

You seem to be describing Armageddon-like scenarios in which gold might prosper in such a way that is appreciating 10x or more from current value, ... unlikely scenarios, but we might chose to make 1% to 10% of our investment choices based on such scenarios, especially if we assign them a high probability (such as 10%, which seems a bit high to me, but might seem reasonable to some of the Armageddon nutjobs out there)

Q: Given an unending supply of inflationary medium, how long can a balloon keep expanding?

A: Exactly until the internal inflationary forces overcome structural integrity, causing balloon to burst.

- jbreher, proud monetary armageddonist nutjob since long before the turn of the millennia


Noted:  Jbreher admits to being one of the armagaeddon nutjobs.  Hopefully, you, jbreher, are not staking too much of actual value (more  than 10% - or even up to 20% in really seemingly stupid-ass crazy dedication)  on such an unlikely scenario.
I don't know when, but I'm 99% certain there will be a grand worldwide monetary reset within my lifetime. Perhaps as early as next week.
I might subscribe to this, but the question is what form it would take.
Imagine for a moment that ALL bonds in developed countries (or at least up to 30 year) are with negative yield (like in Germany right now).
What would it mean?
To me, it would almost certainly mean that you would be charged for deposits. In a big picture this would look like system malfunction.
El-Erian recently said that fin system is not set up to operate with negative yields. Think of insurance and pension funds, for example.
In this situation, who would have deposits larger than a month or two of expenses?
Reset where and how would reset affect those negative rates?

I don't think that the CBs/IMF/etal have WarRoomed the possibilities sufficiently in order to be ready when the offal hits the oscillator. Accordingly, they will likely react in panic. Which would indicate the reset could go in any direction.

That said...

r0ach certainly spews a lot of shit. However, I can agree with him on one point. I think the most likely reset (should it occur within the near or mid term) would be a return to gold as the ultimate basis of world monetary system. I suppose there might be an interim step of 'backed by SDR', but I don't expect that particular sleight of hand to last more than a decade itself.

I do see scenarios where Bitcoin (be it BTC, BSV, or BCH) becomes the reserve currency, but given current state and rate of current trends, less likely. At least in the short term.

As far as interest rates? Repudiated debt does not carry interest.
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August 16, 2019, 08:46:16 PM

Bad news.

After yesterday's green everything is awesome candle, we got the red candle again, at least for now. Looks like it is going to test that 9.2-9.3k.


I'll buy some serious amounts if this goes below $8k. and I don't mean small potatoes like $100.

Any post starting with "bad news" smells like FUD to me. Recently both mindrust and lambie are posting their predictions based on nothing (I recall a better expression, but I don't want to be rude because I really liked these guys at first). It looks like they are trying to influence the others with their repetetive 4900 resp. 7000-8000 claims. Guys, you are very new to the Bitcoin world. The market punished you for 6 months, now you are hoping to catch back what was missed. It is better to be honest and not lie to us. Learn your lessons, invest regularly and don't try to cheat the market, it will bite you. Leave the trade and FUD trolling to the pro's.  Don't go to the dark side!  Grin

By the end of 2014 I had sold all other investments and after setting aside a large chunk for cap gains taxes I was 100 percent in Bitcoin.


Cool story and time-wise very similar to mine, albeit I did not liquidate all fiat: left retirement portfolio intact (mainly due to penalties), but decreased my regular brokerage accounts 80% (at the time) since I did not want to borrow money.
You have to sell fiat to buy corn, right?
I don't think poorly of short term (or even long term) bears as long as their opinion is rational, like yours.
Hopefully, long term is up, but fluctuations are to be expected.
Stock market, on the other hand, is behaving in bipolar fashion.
I am mostly out into short term bonds (before the rate cut as I was expecting a plunge) since I can handle just one asset class with super high volatility, not two or three.

Nice to hear your story as well. I wonder if you had the same feeling I had in 14. I would sit back sometimes in surreal awe at how magic internet money had caused me to make such extreme financial moves and dominate many of my waking and sleeping thoughts.
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August 16, 2019, 09:00:22 PM

19 degrees and at my GF parents house.... jumping in their swimming pond, NUTS freezing as we speak Roll Eyes

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