Last of the V8s
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Activity: 1652
Merit: 4392
Be a bank
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May 03, 2020, 08:21:32 AM |
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Good of you to come out of your shell, Monsieur de la Hairy. You even seem to be making some sense. Congrats
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Wekkel
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Activity: 3108
Merit: 1531
yes
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May 03, 2020, 08:24:50 AM |
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This ‘break even’ chart looks lovely. Where can we find the source?
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AlcoHoDL
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Activity: 2534
Merit: 4699
Addicted to HoDLing!
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May 03, 2020, 08:26:47 AM |
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In order to assess bitcoin’s price for investment purposes we need a long term perspective. Now we identify a monotonic trend, which I'll call the attractor, and determine a method to compare current price to that trend. How long it takes to break even at the price attractor serves as a useful criterion to judge the loftiness of the current price. For example, on July 1 2014 bitcoin cost $638.25. It took 879 days (yellow line) for the attractor (red curve) to reach that price. In other words, it would take 879 days for coins bought on July 1 2014 to break even at the attractor. Bitcoin's price history maps on this "break-even days" function. Break-even days tells us how favorable the current exchange rate is for investing. Low break-even days indicates a good buy. An excessively high break-even time (perhaps 1000 days) means sell. At intermediate values, you could gradually increase and decrease your bitcoin holdings in inverse proportion to the break-even days indicator. Of course the critical question is whether the underlying trend continues to hold. For about ten years, the attractor served as a reliable indicator of support that bitcoin always tended toward, when not in periods of mania, and didn't break below. When the legacy markets crashed in March 2020, bitcoin's price broke through this long-established trend dramatically. Bitcoin's subsequent behaviour, in my opinion, vindicates the robustness of the attractor. Price immediately rose after the crash without signs of weakness, met the attractor, and proceeded promptly into postive territory. The crypto absorbed severe exogenous shock and shook it off like nothing. As the saying goes, honey badger don't care. Very useful, thanks. The graphs clearly show that the times around the Halving events (2012, 2016, 2020) are some of the best times to buy Bitcoin. Rather obvious to many of us, but it's very nice to see it pictured graphically so clearly.
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JayJuanGee
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Activity: 3878
Merit: 11087
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
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May 03, 2020, 08:40:25 AM |
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In order to assess bitcoin’s price for investment purposes we need a long term perspective. Now we identify a monotonic trend, which I'll call the attractor, and determine a method to compare current price to that trend. How long it takes to break even at the price attractor serves as a useful criterion to judge the loftiness of the current price. For example, on July 1 2014 bitcoin cost $638.25. It took 879 days (yellow line) for the attractor (red curve) to reach that price. In other words, it would take 879 days for coins bought on July 1 2014 to break even at the attractor. Bitcoin's price history maps on this "break-even days" function. Break-even days tells us how favorable the current exchange rate is for investing. Low break-even days indicates a good buy. An excessively high break-even time (perhaps 1000 days) means sell. At intermediate values, you could gradually increase and decrease your bitcoin holdings in inverse proportion to the break-even days indicator. Of course the critical question is whether the underlying trend continues to hold. For about ten years, the attractor served as a reliable indicator of support that bitcoin always tended toward, when not in periods of mania, and didn't break below. When the legacy markets crashed in March 2020, bitcoin's price broke through this long-established trend dramatically. Bitcoin's subsequent behaviour, in my opinion, vindicates the robustness of the attractor. Price immediately rose after the crash without signs of weakness, met the attractor, and proceeded promptly into postive territory. The crypto absorbed severe exogenous shock and shook it off like nothing. As the saying goes, honey badger don't care. You made those graphs yourself, kellrobinson - or did you get them from somewhere?
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HairyMaclairy
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Activity: 1414
Merit: 2174
Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist
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May 03, 2020, 08:40:52 AM |
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Good of you to come out of your shell, Monsieur de la Hairy. You even seem to be making some sense. Congrats Let’s not rush to judgment now Good to see you hale and hearty
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becoin
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Activity: 3431
Merit: 1233
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Vegeta is back guys
... shall we play a game? To play a game you must have some bitcoins and you have not for you've already sold yours in anticipation of lower price.
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jojo69
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Activity: 3332
Merit: 4614
diamond-handed zealot
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May 03, 2020, 08:48:57 AM |
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Hairy! welcome back! now get the fuck back in your house
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Cryptotourist
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May 03, 2020, 08:55:02 AM |
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Vegeta is back guys
... shall we play a game? To play a game you must have some bitcoins and you have not for you've already sold yours in anticipation of lower price. He has gold. Gold and silver.
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El duderino_
Legendary
Online
Activity: 2674
Merit: 13164
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
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May 03, 2020, 08:55:04 AM |
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Welcome back sire HM, so you did hear my call
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VB1001
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Activity: 938
Merit: 2540
<<CypherPunkCat>>
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May 03, 2020, 08:59:41 AM |
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It is good to see that the majority returned, where to be better than here.
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becoin
Legendary
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Activity: 3431
Merit: 1233
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May 03, 2020, 09:01:46 AM |
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Vegeta is back guys
... shall we play a game? To play a game you must have some bitcoins and you have not for you've already sold yours in anticipation of lower price. He has gold. Gold and silver. There is nothing wrong in having gold and silver. But you must also have bitcoins! The perfect hedge of having bitcoins is to also have gold and silver. And the perfect hedge of having gold and silver is to also have bitcoins.
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kellrobinson
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May 03, 2020, 09:11:26 AM Merited by JayJuanGee (1) |
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This ‘break even’ chart looks lovely. Where can we find the source?
Hey, all who asked about the graphs. I did them myself. attractor is 10^(0.093928*D^0.5-1.699) where D is days since Sept 8, 2010 If you're good with spreadsheets, you can work from there.
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HairyMaclairy
Legendary
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Activity: 1414
Merit: 2174
Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist
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Hairy!
welcome back!
now get the fuck back in your house
Yeah. So I started a vegetable garden. And the fucking possums are eating (ate) all my hot chili peppers. Everything else is fine tho. Welcome back sire HM, so you did hear my call Thanks Dude. I did hear a little ding-a-ling. It is good to see that the majority returned, where to be better than here.
I came back for halvening party. Someone remind me what block height we are waiting for?
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Cryptotourist
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May 03, 2020, 09:16:17 AM |
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There is nothing wrong in having gold and silver. But you must also have bitcoins! The perfect hedge of having bitcoins is to also have gold and silver. And the perfect hedge of having gold and silver is to also have bitcoins.
Agreed. Missed the side story, but agreed. Hairy Maclairy, on time for the wildest ride, so pleased to see you.#haiku
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Last of the V8s
Legendary
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Activity: 1652
Merit: 4392
Be a bank
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May 03, 2020, 09:17:44 AM |
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I came back for halvening party. Someone remind me what block height we are waiting for?
630,000. current is 628,710 but nothing will happen. except drunkenness edit: so, under 9 days
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becoin
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Activity: 3431
Merit: 1233
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May 03, 2020, 09:19:13 AM Merited by JayJuanGee (1) |
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Hairy!
welcome back!
now get the fuck back in your house
Yeah. So I started a vegetable garden. And the fucking possums are eating (ate) all my hot chili peppers. Everything else is fine tho. Welcome back sire HM, so you did hear my call Thanks Dude. I did hear a little ding-a-ling. It is good to see that the majority returned, where to be better than here.
I came back for halvening party. Someone remind me what block height we are waiting for? 630 000. Oh well, the real party will be at 666 666.
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HairyMaclairy
Legendary
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Activity: 1414
Merit: 2174
Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist
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May 03, 2020, 09:39:10 AM |
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I came back for halvening party. Someone remind me what block height we are waiting for?
630,000. current is 628,710 but nothing will happen. except drunkenness edit: so, under 9 days You have just inspired me to dive into the very back of the liquor cabinet. I think this is from the late 1980s. Should I drink it?
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Globb0
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Activity: 2702
Merit: 2053
Free spirit
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May 03, 2020, 09:39:35 AM |
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Nonsense! There's no boot like a Carolina Boot.Certified for moon walking (going to need it soon, better stock up)... Can they fit on 1 or 2 more flags? Im not sure what country they are from
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Globb0
Legendary
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Activity: 2702
Merit: 2053
Free spirit
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May 03, 2020, 09:47:28 AM |
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Price of sanitizer I bet they are googling how to wash hands with vodka
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