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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25440312 times)
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gentlemand
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July 31, 2020, 05:14:10 PM

Yup. I can finally pay to become that pillow chested honey blonde I always wanted to be.
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July 31, 2020, 05:15:28 PM

Yup. I can finally pay to become that pillow chested honey blonde I always wanted to be.

The question is, which dude is JJG?

Cheesy
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July 31, 2020, 05:18:20 PM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

^^
None.
Robots can't go in water. Wink

Pointless post...
My day went great. A big purchase I was responsible for at work went perfect. All happy.
So I'm chilling, now listening to Khalid, Disclosure - Know Your Worth and lovin' it!
And Bitcoin is pumping, what more could one ask for?  Cool
How about some merit!
I'll join you in the listening session.
Cheers for sending em some for the rest of us who don't have any left.
It is just like popping tags, once you feeling good about the price then you start giving em out like they are going outta style! Cheesy

I found the song 'Eleven' from the same artist to be more appropriate for this week in BTC-0-land! Grin
-350!
https://youtu.be/YfOohn8_l90
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July 31, 2020, 05:19:03 PM

The reality is that many people successful or not don't like being told what to do regardless of the consequence.  I don't think there is any new Kool-Aid involved wrt the mask.  Sure, the science is out; the science is out on many things which we also ignore on a daily basis without any consideration.  Speeding, smoking, drinking alcohol, using drugs, unprotected sex, going to the Moon/Mars and not wearing your seat belt...  Some people are more inclined to take risks than others.
 
 I'm not going to condemn the man based on that one thing - it was his choice.  Maybe his death will serve as the motivation for others who are on the fence about wearing a mask to put one on; especially those who are in the "more susceptible" categories.

It's not simply a matter of taking a risk. It's about endangering others.

Though I agree with you at the base of it, I suppose my general feelings are more in line with the idea that each person is responsible for their own choices in regards to this... everything really.

This man paid the price for his own choices.  And I cannot care less about what his opinion is on masks insofar as it's effect on whether or not I wear one.  That is my choice and I own the consequences.  On the other hand there is some theories that masks protect other more than the wearer.  In this regard I believe locally based laws and regs are appropriate.  And if you are breaking the law by not wearing one I think that too should be something one is ready to face the consequences of.
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July 31, 2020, 05:20:10 PM
Merited by ivomm (1), machasm (1)




Is that mindrust in the Kia?
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July 31, 2020, 05:22:39 PM


Haha brilliant. Out of Merit but would have sent you x 10 for that, genuinely made me LOL.
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July 31, 2020, 05:25:32 PM


Haha brilliant. Out of Merit but would have sent you x 10 for that, genuinely made me LOL.

I really don't want to pick on the guy... but that one was just... right... there...
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July 31, 2020, 05:25:58 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)








Soooooo I have to grow some glasses??
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July 31, 2020, 05:28:52 PM

He seems to have lived his life on his own terms.  That alone deserves respect.

Too bad he gave up on reality and started drinking the Kool-Aid. Happens to a lot of successful people, they think that just because they are successful at one thing they are experts in everything.

 The reality is that many people successful or not don't like being told what to do regardless of the consequence.  I don't think there is any new Kool-Aid involved wrt the mask.  Sure, the science is out;

Do you really think that "we" already know about science related to the virus?  whether we are talking about masks or a variety of other aspects of the way that it affects people and the utility, effectiveness or cost benefits of various precautionary measures?  whether we are talking about masks or other possible protections?


the science is out on many things which we also ignore on a daily basis without any consideration.  

That's true, but does not mean that we know hardly shit about this particular virus, yet.

Sure, we could pick almost any topic, and there would be controversy about what "science" applies, even though there are some kinds of science that are less controversial than others and even harder to argue against.. such as whether 1+1 = 2 versus if there are some more complicated variables in the equation that needs to be measured.


Speeding, smoking, drinking alcohol, using drugs, unprotected sex, going to the Moon/Mars and not wearing your seat belt...  Some people are more inclined to take risks than others.

Fair enough.. but with a virus, there is more than just a one way street - including potential exponential spreading.. whether you believe that it is contagious or spreadable or not... maybe it is NOT as spreadable as it is made out to be?  some of those aspects of the virus seem to NOT be well known yet, even though I bet that there are some scientist that know way the fuck more than others.  There are also some scientist that are likely full of shit, too.

I'm not going to condemn the man based on that one thing - it was his choice.  Maybe his death will serve as the motivation for others who are on the fence about wearing a mask to put one on; especially those who are in the "more susceptible" categories.

I will agree with you that notable figures can sometimes serve as a better example (and perhaps resonate with others) better than  not really knowing of any examples or maybe getting bad information in regards to some of the examples that any one of us might hear about... including whether the examples are anecdotal or representative... which comes with study and perhaps with the passage of time and the witnessing of more data, too.

Of course, there are some people who are overly scared and overly precautious. I have some difficulties understanding much if any benefits in wearing a mask outdoor when no people are around, except that maybe there might be some easiness in not having to take it off and put it back on, perhaps... but anyhow, I doubt that there is any real benefit in some of the philosophies of the Corona parties.. when there is purposeful desires to catch the virus in order to help with the increasing of herd immunity, if such a thing exists with this particular virus.  Anyhow, good on you, if you want to purposefully catch Corona virus and somehow serve as an unpaid subject of a study that is still in the process of figuring out a lot of the variables and a lot of the scenarios.

The reality is that many people successful or not don't like being told what to do regardless of the consequence.  I don't think there is any new Kool-Aid involved wrt the mask.  Sure, the science is out; the science is out on many things which we also ignore on a daily basis without any consideration.  Speeding, smoking, drinking alcohol, using drugs, unprotected sex, going to the Moon/Mars and not wearing your seat belt...  Some people are more inclined to take risks than others.
 
 I'm not going to condemn the man based on that one thing - it was his choice.  Maybe his death will serve as the motivation for others who are on the fence about wearing a mask to put one on; especially those who are in the "more susceptible" categories.

It's not simply a matter of taking a risk. It's about endangering others.

Though I agree with you at the base of it, I suppose my general feelings are more in line with the idea that each person is responsible for their own choices in regards to this... everything really.

This man paid the price for his own choices.  And I cannot care less about what his opinion is on masks insofar as it's effect on whether or not I wear one.  That is my choice and I own the consequences.  On the other hand there is some theories that masks protect other more than the wearer.  In this regard I believe locally based laws and regs are appropriate.  And if you are breaking the law by not wearing one I think that too should be something one is ready to face the consequences of.

How about the death sentence if there is sufficient proof that your failure and refusal to wear a mask had caused the death of someone else?  Sound good?
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July 31, 2020, 05:45:05 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), gentlemand (1), Toxic2040 (1)

I cannot care less about what his opinion is on masks insofar as it's effect on whether or not I wear one.  That is my choice and I own the consequences.  On the other hand there is some theories solid proof that masks protect other more than the wearer.  In this regard I believe locally based laws and regs are appropriate.  And if you are breaking the law by not wearing one I think that too should be something one is ready to face the consequences of.

Masks are mostly about stopping the spread, not about protecting the wearer.

It's too bad "laws and regs" are required to prevent reckless endangerment of others.

Asymptomatic carriers who've been brainwashed by covid-denial/anti-mask propaganda don't suffer any consequences for the harm they're doing.
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July 31, 2020, 05:54:28 PM

new short fibs and random commentary

impact and upwards parabolic inflection from arbitrary S-curve trend line
4h


#dyor
D

#stronghands
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July 31, 2020, 06:02:30 PM

If you thought holding was hard over the past few years, just wait until the #Bitcoin  price is ascending relentlessly, instigating you to sell down your stack.

*Develop a strategy now and do not deviate*

Strong-handedness is more critical in bull markets than bear markets.

https://twitter.com/breedlove22/status/1288682370090950657?s=21
Wisdom.

During bear markets we tend to accumulate as much as we possibly can but, as you said, during bull markets we could capitulate due to too much excitement. Having a strategy allows us to be more confident all the way up.

Again, Dude, this is wisdom!

Talking of strategies to sell some, what are strategies being planned by others here?
  • DCA over a couple weeks with start of first sell triggered by target price, technical indicator in combination with date
  • BTC backed loans to carry you to the next bull peak. Pay back when BTC rate improves.
  • Selling put options. Hedge to not miss the top, but can be costly when the bull gets going.
  • Do you sell to USDT or some other fiat linked coin?
  • Where do you invest/save your new stack of fiat in the current economy?

I will not sell most of my reserves under any circumstances.  The only thing I see myself diversifying into if it is appropriate is real estate.

I am hoping the lightning network and other layer 2 solutions begin to flourish over the next years, and my strategy will be how to move sats into channels via which I can pay for the needs of daily life.  I am a simple man with absolutely no need for "Lambos",cannot afford the years taken off my life due to any drug habits, and don't want hookers.

I would like a home in the mountains, and possibly a place by the sea... perhaps I will try to combine those two things and move to the up country in Maui.  Then I just need enough to pay the bills.

I suppose that sounds boring.

That doesn't sound boring at all. It sounds idyllic and I couldn't agree more. When it happens, I'll invite you to one of my homes in the mountains in exchange for a visit to one of yours!
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July 31, 2020, 06:11:33 PM

That doesn't sound boring at all. It sounds idyllic and I couldn't agree more. When it happens, I'll invite you to one of my homes in the mountains in exchange for a visit to one of yours!

It's a deal. Seriously. It would be really fun to make this happen sometime in the next few years...

OK. So.  We really just need the next stage of this bull flag to be confirmed.  I do not hate a pullback here, but I LOVE continuation!

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July 31, 2020, 06:24:39 PM

That doesn't sound boring at all. It sounds idyllic and I couldn't agree more. When it happens, I'll invite you to one of my homes in the mountains in exchange for a visit to one of yours!

It's a deal. Seriously. It would be really fun to make this happen sometime in the next few years...

OK. So.  We really just need the next stage of this bull flag to be confirmed.  I do not hate a pullback here, but I LOVE continuation!



You are describing some level of fuck you status.. even if you do not exactly specify what that is exactly.

So if you are saying a couple of years, then we are talking about this upcoming bullrun, that may well take less than 2 years to play out.

And, sure we could get $100k to $300k out of it, but since you have been sufficiently pessimistic, cAPSLOCK, I am suspecting that you are thinking that the $100k to $300k might not happen this time around.. .and surely, I am more than willing to go along with an overly conservative way of planning... accordingly, if the run has not happened yet, then my plans are really only going to pencil in a BTC price appreciation of about 6% per year... just to be conservative.

In other words, likely our thinking is similar in that regards, cAPSLOCK, even though we tend to outline our thinking in different ways... so I am speculating that you are thinking that $100k to $300k would be enough to obtain your fuck you status goal?

If you need another bull run for that, then "a few years" seems like the wrong time frame, and you likely would need to add another four years onto the 2 years that is  currently "scheduled" for our next bull run... yes, I am being a bit tongue in cheek regarding "scheduled" as a word choice because all of us longer term HODLers realize that these BTC price appreciation matters are far from guaranteed.
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July 31, 2020, 06:29:02 PM

How about the death sentence if there is sufficient proof that your failure and refusal to wear a mask had caused the death of someone else?  Sound good?

A little extreme, perhaps.

This isn't cold-blooded premeditated murder in the first degree. It's more a case of manslaughter or even as low as criminal negligence causing death.

It is the result of stupidity, not malice.

Ten or twenty years should suffice.
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July 31, 2020, 06:36:13 PM

How about the death sentence if there is sufficient proof that your failure and refusal to wear a mask had caused the death of someone else?  Sound good?

A little extreme, perhaps.

This isn't cold-blooded premeditated murder in the first degree. It's more a case of manslaughter or even as low as criminal negligence causing death.

It is the result of stupidity, not malice.

Ten or twenty years would suffice.

Sure, I was not trying to get into some of the technicals, but I was trying to make the point about taking responsibility for your actions that cAPSLOCK seemed to be arguing that he would be willing to take responsibility for his actions, while he seemed to be limiting his liability to some kind of monetary fine or whatever the "not wearing a mask" violations are currently requiring for punishments.  I would imagine that a lot of places, if we get into legal enforcement, they are likely warning people first before attempting stricter punishments.  

Otherwise, I would agree with you in regard to the level of intent that would likely need to be assessed for anyone to receive the death penalty, including sometimes the level of maliciousness.. even though death penalty varies from country to country, and some places are even opposed to the death penalty too... so sure, to attempt to make a point about actually really taking responsibility for the consequences of your actions, I was exaggerating a bit with my hypothetical.
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July 31, 2020, 06:51:04 PM

That doesn't sound boring at all. It sounds idyllic and I couldn't agree more. When it happens, I'll invite you to one of my homes in the mountains in exchange for a visit to one of yours!

It's a deal. Seriously. It would be really fun to make this happen sometime in the next few years...

OK. So.  We really just need the next stage of this bull flag to be confirmed.  I do not hate a pullback here, but I LOVE continuation!



You are describing some level of fuck you status.. even if you do not exactly specify what that is exactly.

So if you are saying a couple of years, then we are talking about this upcoming bullrun, that may well take less than 2 years to play out.

And, sure we could get $100k to $300k out of it, but since you have been sufficiently pessimistic, cAPSLOCK, I am suspecting that you are thinking that the $100k to $300k might not happen this time around.. .and surely, I am more than willing to go along with an overly conservative way of planning... accordingly, if the run has not happened yet, then my plans are really only going to pencil in a BTC price appreciation of about 6% per year... just to be conservative.

In other words, likely our thinking is similar in that regards, cAPSLOCK, even though we tend to outline our thinking in different ways... so I am speculating that you are thinking that $100k to $300k would be enough to obtain your fuck you status goal?

If you need another bull run for that, then "a few years" seems like the wrong time frame, and you likely would need to add another four years onto the 2 years that is  currently "scheduled" for our next bull run... yes, I am being a bit tongue in cheek regarding "scheduled" as a word choice because all of us longer term HODLers realize that these BTC price appreciation matters are far from guaranteed.

Hmm.. I think my ADD may have thrown you off.  There is no direct relationship between the first and second sentences.  The first is regarding a long term goal where someday I invite Strawbs to sit on my porch with my wife and myself and enjoy a couple beers from Maui Brewing while we watch the sun set behind Haleakala.

The second sentence is regarding the chart I posted which is the current hourly which depicts, in my opinion a bull flag that has already poked it's upward fronds in the direction I am hoping it heads this weekend.  Short term horizon.  And about that I mention that I am OK if we see a correction here and that was a fakeout, but I would prefer us to keep steaming up the hill since it's just more fun when number go up.

And again your strange interpretation of pessimism on my part is something I still don't understand.  I mean i am not exactly the bull MicG is, but I am likely only a few steps down from his point of view. Wink

As to F.U status...  Ehh... I dunno.  The numbers you lay out would be very nice.  I expect we will see those number eventually.
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July 31, 2020, 06:58:14 PM

My 2c on timing:

At first, i was thinking that we will go through a regular cycle ending in late 2021.
However, I now think that this cycle would happen faster (at least initially). Maybe there will be a double-hump, but I will talk first about the initial phase.
facts:
1. We already "printed" 3.2-3.4 tril in US, maybe another 1-3 tril will be coming shortly.
2. Stock market was goosed and high beta stocks are outperforming
3. Gold is on a tear and $ declined a bit
4. many political factors are coming into play as well: fear of the 'other" side in US before the election.

To me all this indicates that we are right now not in 2016 equivalent (as we should be in relation to halving), but in the summer 2017-equivalent cycle-wise.
Therefore, it is entirely possible that we tear up to $70-100K with a local peak at anywhere between Nov 2020-Jan 2021.
This scenario would suggest a sharp correction to, say, $30-40K during spring-early summer of 2021, then another climb to potentially ultimate peak in late 2021 at $150-300K.

Something like this (please forgive my low skills in trading view):
or this

Post of the year.

#Biodomdamus



I was trained (some label that as "programmed" - deny... ) to deny first, and ask questions later.


Something like that - I am afraid to say.



Just wow, Jay-Juan.

Quote
Is one of the shared design principles that the robot must be adorable?

Gee: Yes, in design, you need to consider how to bring about acceptance, awareness, and trust. You don’t want customers to feel threatened or anxious as they share their space with an autonomous device. A face and a name make it easier. Without a face, the robot might be perceived as scary or unknown. People relate better and engage more with a robot they find appealing.
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July 31, 2020, 06:58:41 PM

That doesn't sound boring at all. It sounds idyllic and I couldn't agree more. When it happens, I'll invite you to one of my homes in the mountains in exchange for a visit to one of yours!

It's a deal. Seriously. It would be really fun to make this happen sometime in the next few years...

OK. So.  We really just need the next stage of this bull flag to be confirmed.  I do not hate a pullback here, but I LOVE continuation!



You are describing some level of fuck you status.. even if you do not exactly specify what that is exactly.

So if you are saying a couple of years, then we are talking about this upcoming bullrun, that may well take less than 2 years to play out.

And, sure we could get $100k to $300k out of it, but since you have been sufficiently pessimistic, cAPSLOCK, I am suspecting that you are thinking that the $100k to $300k might not happen this time around.. .and surely, I am more than willing to go along with an overly conservative way of planning... accordingly, if the run has not happened yet, then my plans are really only going to pencil in a BTC price appreciation of about 6% per year... just to be conservative.

In other words, likely our thinking is similar in that regards, cAPSLOCK, even though we tend to outline our thinking in different ways... so I am speculating that you are thinking that $100k to $300k would be enough to obtain your fuck you status goal?

If you need another bull run for that, then "a few years" seems like the wrong time frame, and you likely would need to add another four years onto the 2 years that is  currently "scheduled" for our next bull run... yes, I am being a bit tongue in cheek regarding "scheduled" as a word choice because all of us longer term HODLers realize that these BTC price appreciation matters are far from guaranteed.

Hmm.. I think my ADD may have thrown you off.  There is no direct relationship between the first and second sentences.  The first is regarding a long term goal where someday I invite Strawbs to sit on my porch with my wife and myself and enjoy a couple beers from Maui Brewing while we watch the sun set behind Haleakala.

The second sentence is regarding the chart I posted which is the current hourly which depicts, in my opinion a bull flag that has already poked it's upward fronds in the direction I am hoping it heads this weekend.  Short term horizon.  And about that I mention that I am OK if we see a correction here and that was a fakeout, but I would prefer us to keep steaming up the hill since it's just more fun when number go up.

And again your strange interpretation of pessimism on my part is something I still don't understand.  I mean i am not exactly the bull MicG is, but I am likely only a few steps down from his point of view. Wink

As to F.U status...  Ehh... I dunno.  The numbers you lay out would be very nice.  I expect we will see those number eventually.

By the way.. one of the scenarios I think is an edge case for THIS bull is we see the REAL upward slope of the "S curve" where the demand for bitcoin drives it to 7 digits.  Like I say... edge case, but I think a real possibility... in the next couple years.

Pessimistic?
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July 31, 2020, 07:22:56 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), ivomm (1)

If Bitcoin breaks through $14,000 (its highest peak since ATH), then there's a very good chance that we'll shoot up to $20,000 over the next weeks (if not days).

The sell walls between $14,000 and $20,000 are extremely weak, and another strong bullish run could easily see them smashed.

As we can see by the recent influx of newly minted stablecoins (ala Tether, USD Coin, TrueUSD etc), there's definitely a bunch of new money moving into the market.

It's not just money being sucked from the shitcoinsaltcoins into Bitcoin, it's also a bunch of new retail investors getting into the market. This is what we need, and this is a large part of the reason why Bitcoin went stratospheric in 2017.

Hopefully it happens sooner rather than later—it would be incredible to see Bitcoin hit a new all-time high this year. I think $100,000 is a bit optimistic (even under the best case scenario), but $20k-$40k is definitely within the realms of possibility.

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