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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25440344 times)
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July 31, 2020, 11:42:18 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (2)

We have 46.8 mil (give or take) $ millionaires in the world.
The article below states that there are only 25K people who own 89 (and above) btc, which is roughly $1 mil (currently).
https://medium.com/@BambouClub/are-you-in-the-bitcoin-1-a-new-model-of-the-distribution-of-bitcoin-wealth-6adb0d4a6a95

Therefore, bitcoiners contribute a minuscule number to $ millionaires (if you convert bitcoiners btc to $ value).
BTC has to go to about 70K for the number of btc $ millionaires to reach 250K, which is still would be just about 0.5% of all millionaires.
BTC has to go to 200K for the number of btc millionaires to reach 1mil, which would be just 2% of the total number.

Conclusion: movement of btc to 200K would not significantly increase the number of wealthy people in the world (2% is basically a margin of error).
Therefore it is entirely possible to happen as there are no visible constrains as far as a significant increase in total number of wealthy vs general population.


25K people with 89+ BTC? It sounds like a lot to me.... but what do I know.
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July 31, 2020, 11:44:27 PM
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But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion  that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.

The pump is harder.

4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth

I would argue  that shift can't happen in less than 10 years.   12-18 months is a no go.

I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000

Of course I am barring the collapse of the USA dollar as the world standard for wealth.

If that happens hell BTC could be worth 1,000,000 in ten years or less.


this is from another post.

the argument I gave is btc can capture only a certain % of the world wealth.

it got close to .5% in 2017

I simply do not see it going past 1%  or maybe 40-60k

But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point.  This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game.  As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value.

But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it.  It will rise Z when X value is put in.

Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion.  How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion?  I do not believe the answer is 800billion.  Similarly the sales would equal MUCH LESS than 200 billion if bitcoin was to fail and go to zero.

I think I might want to look at this thing the other way around...

I wonder once you take away Satoshi and Hal's family, what the distribution of the really big bitcoin whales looks like.  For example are there only a very few people with say 100,000 bitcoin?

If so bitcoin would have to be a half million USD for people with that much BTC to reach Koch brothers level.
 

I have no issue with the short term idea of 50k late 2020 or early 2021
I just don't see it going much past it.

Most of us are wannabes and  not sitting on 1000btc or more.

Think of a top end guy seeing me come at him with my 100 btc stash. (100 x 300000 = 30 million) While he may have 5 billion I can cause him grief with my 30million.

So I listed the top 10 guys  I think there are 2000 billionaires.

lets argue they own 16 million btc.

and we the little guy owes a total of 2 million btc.  I propose then have a vested interest in not letting us catch up.

2 million x 11,000 = 22,000,000,000  22 billion

they have 8x that or 176 billion

yeah they want more since the average billionaire lives with the "nothing counts but more" motto


they absolutely will control the rise

bump to 55,000

the lower group now has 110 billion

they have 880 billion.  I believe they would not crash it out at that point. They have most of the coin and they can take profit but they don't have to.

move to 330,000 a coin

the lower group now has 660 billion

they have 5280 billion

certainly they would be really happy with 5280 billion vs the current 176 billion

I do think we that lower 1/9 of the coins would look to be a threat at this point.  They would sell off and not let us grow this high.

Since we would leave the working class and be the "new rich"

I suggest they cap this run at 50 k to 100 k   vs  250k to 330k.  Just so we that lower section do not get too independent.

I still think the 2020/2021 upside is 50-60k but what the fuck do I really know.

A) I don't have direct contact with the top coin holders
B) I don't have knowledge of the cover virus
C) I don't know the results of the 2020 election.

Just because I  the ultra rich would cap this to 50-60k does not mean I am correct.

  Those 2000 billionaires could be very diverse in their btc/crypto holdings.  If only 10 to 100 hold the coins it means they are passing 1900 to 1990 the billionaires so those billionaires could want to buy coins to maintain they places in the billionaire club.  That would mean they would not look at the lower 1/9 gaining as much as they would if the coins are more widely dispersed among them.
  
That case could and would allow for a crazy jump in price. I better hodl till 2021 no matter what. Grin

at bitserve  see how many hold 1000.  if it is smaller by far maybe the crazy number happens.
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August 01, 2020, 12:36:18 AM

seems pretty bullish to me  #dyor

Monthly

#stronghands
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August 01, 2020, 01:28:15 AM

I personally think flibfilb does some of the best technical analysis of the corn.  He and @DavetheWave are the two that I feel have a great handle on the market, and have both technical skills from, I'd guess a lot of stonk and macro analysis.

Filbfilb has had keen insight on fairly short timeframes, and DavetheWave has called the basic shape of things from a broad overview with great precision.  I think the scenario filbfilb is putting forth here has a lot of merit.  And it fits with Dave's overall map.  We certainly have room in the bigass triangle to do one more wobble before the big breakout.

But, if I had to bet, I would bet filbfilb is wrong this time.  I don't think we can take any more pressure...  but we'll see.

Same. Aside from masterluc and maybe PlanB, those two are about the only T/A guys I follow. @davthewave's thesis is undoubtedly the most conservative of the bunch, as he doesn't forecast $100K until late 2023. His long-term forecast has been pretty accurate so far though, I'd say.
filb is not slouch either, having called the 2017 top far in advance, and also the eventual bottom.
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August 01, 2020, 01:56:56 AM

But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point.  This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game.  As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value.

But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it.  It will rise Z when X value is put in.

Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion.  How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion?  I do not believe the answer is 800billion.

Price goes up when buyers buy more than sellers sell. It has *nothing* to do with "incoming" money. Market cap is meaningless.
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August 01, 2020, 02:13:23 AM

But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point.  This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game.  As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value.

But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it.  It will rise Z when X value is put in.

Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion.  How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion?  I do not believe the answer is 800billion.

Price goes up when buyers buy more than sellers sell. It has *nothing* to do with "incoming" money. Market cap is meaningless.

Exactly what I was attempting to say. Wink
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August 01, 2020, 02:14:07 AM


But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion  that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.

The pump is harder.

4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth

I would argue  that shift can't happen in less than 10 years.   12-18 months is a no go.

I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000

Of course I am barring the collapse of the USA dollar as the world standard for wealth.

If that happens hell BTC could be worth 1,000,000 in ten years or less.


this is from another post.

the argument I gave is btc can capture only a certain % of the world wealth.

it got close to .5% in 2017

I simply do not see it going past 1%  or maybe 40-60k

But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point.  This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game.  As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value.

But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it.  It will rise Z when X value is put in.

Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion.  How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion?  I do not believe the answer is 800billion.  Similarly the sales would equal MUCH LESS than 200 billion if bitcoin was to fail and go to zero.

I think I might want to look at this thing the other way around...

I wonder once you take away Satoshi and Hal's family, what the distribution of the really big bitcoin whales looks like.  For example are there only a very few people with say 100,000 bitcoin?

If so bitcoin would have to be a half million USD for people with that much BTC to reach Koch brothers level.
 

I have no issue with the short term idea of 50k late 2020 or early 2021
I just don't see it going much past it.

Most of us are wannabes and  not sitting on 1000btc or more.

Think of a top end guy seeing me come at him with my 100 btc stash. (100 x 300000 = 30 million) While he may have 5 billion I can cause him grief with my 30million.

So I listed the top 10 guys  I think there are 2000 billionaires.

lets argue they own 16 million btc.

and we the little guy owes a total of 2 million btc.  I propose then have a vested interest in not letting us catch up.

2 million x 11,000 = 22,000,000,000  22 billion

they have 8x that or 176 billion

yeah they want more since the average billionaire lives with the "nothing counts but more" motto


they absolutely will control the rise

bump to 55,000

the lower group now has 110 billion

they have 880 billion.  I believe they would not crash it out at that point. They have most of the coin and they can take profit but they don't have to.

move to 330,000 a coin

the lower group now has 660 billion

they have 5280 billion

certainly they would be really happy with 5280 billion vs the current 176 billion

I do think we that lower 1/9 of the coins would look to be a threat at this point.  They would sell off and not let us grow this high.

Since we would leave the working class and be the "new rich"

I suggest they cap this run at 50 k to 100 k   vs  250k to 330k.  Just so we that lower section do not get too independent.

I still think the 2020/2021 upside is 50-60k but what the fuck do I really know.

A) I don't have direct contact with the top coin holders
B) I don't have knowledge of the cover virus
C) I don't know the results of the 2020 election.

Just because I  the ultra rich would cap this to 50-60k does not mean I am correct.

  Those 2000 billionaires could be very diverse in their btc/crypto holdings.  If only 10 to 100 hold the coins it means they are passing 1900 to 1990 the billionaires so those billionaires could want to buy coins to maintain they places in the billionaire club.  That would mean they would not look at the lower 1/9 gaining as much as they would if the coins are more widely dispersed among them.
  
That case could and would allow for a crazy jump in price. I better hodl till 2021 no matter what. Grin

at bitserve  see how many hold 1000.  if it is smaller by far maybe the crazy number happens.

This is so fun I read it 3 times.  I have NO IDEA what you are talking about though.
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August 01, 2020, 02:36:13 AM

Hello, what you recommend use for a Bitcoin Node?  AWS or ANKR?
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August 01, 2020, 02:39:57 AM


But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion  that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.

The pump is harder.

4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth

I would argue  that shift can't happen in less than 10 years.   12-18 months is a no go.

I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000

But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point.  This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game.  As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value.

But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it.  It will rise Z when X value is put in.

Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion.  How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion?  I do not believe the answer is 800billion.  Similarly the sales would equal MUCH LESS than 200 billion if bitcoin was to fail and go to zero.
While it's true that smaller sums of money can have big impacts on market caps, in the long run it is most suitable to look at market cap as 'real value', especially in a liquid system with many participants such as bitcoin.


By the way Philiphma, your estimate of total global wealth is 50 to 100 trillion usd.  A quick google search tells me it is more in the 300 to 400 trillion range.
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August 01, 2020, 02:42:11 AM
Last edit: August 01, 2020, 02:53:04 AM by philipma1957


But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion  that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.

The pump is harder.

4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth

I would argue  that shift can't happen in less than 10 years.   12-18 months is a no go.

I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000

Of course I am barring the collapse of the USA dollar as the world standard for wealth.

If that happens hell BTC could be worth 1,000,000 in ten years or less.


this is from another post.

the argument I gave is btc can capture only a certain % of the world wealth.

it got close to .5% in 2017

I simply do not see it going past 1%  or maybe 40-60k

But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point.  This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game.  As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value.

But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it.  It will rise Z when X value is put in.

Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion.  How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion?  I do not believe the answer is 800billion.  Similarly the sales would equal MUCH LESS than 200 billion if bitcoin was to fail and go to zero.

I think I might want to look at this thing the other way around...

I wonder once you take away Satoshi and Hal's family, what the distribution of the really big bitcoin whales looks like.  For example are there only a very few people with say 100,000 bitcoin?

If so bitcoin would have to be a half million USD for people with that much BTC to reach Koch brothers level.
 

I have no issue with the short term idea of 50k late 2020 or early 2021
I just don't see it going much past it.

Most of us are wannabes and  not sitting on 1000btc or more.

Think of a top end guy seeing me come at him with my 100 btc stash. (100 x 300000 = 30 million) While he may have 5 billion I can cause him grief with my 30 million.

So I listed the top 10 guys  I think there are 2000 billionaires.
lets argue they own 16 million btc and we the little guy own a total of 2 million btc.  I propose they have a vested interest in not letting us catch up.

2 million x 11,000 = 22,000,000,000  22 billion
They have 8x that or 176 billion

Yeah they want more since the average billionaire lives with the "nothing counts but more" motto

They absolutely will control the rise so a
bump to 55,000 is allowed to happen

The lower group now has 110 billion
The top level now has 880 billion.  
I believe they the top owners would not crash it out at that point. They have most of the coin and they can take profit but they don't have to.

  If we move to 330,000 a coin the lower group now has 660 billion
They the top group have 5280 billion  Almost certainly they would be really happy with 5280 billion vs the current 176 billion.

The problem is I do think we that lower 1/9 of the coins would look to be a threat at this point.  They would sell off and not let us grow this high.

     Since we would leave the working class and be the "new rich"
  I suggest they cap this run at 50 k to 100 k   vs  250k to 330k.  Just so we that lower section do not get too independent and or too rich.

I still think the 2020/2021 upside is 50-60k but what the fuck do I really know.

A) I don't have direct contact with the top coin holders
B) I don't have knowledge of the cover virus
C) I don't know the results of the 2020 election.

Just because I  think the ultra rich would cap this to 50-60k does not mean I am correct.

 
   Those 2000 billionaires could be very diverse in their btc/crypto holdings.  If only 10 to 100 hold the coins it means they are passing the other  1900 to 1990 the billionaires so those billionaires could want to buy coins to maintain their places in the billionaire club.  That would mean they would not look at the lower 1/9 gaining as much as they would if the coins are more widely dispersed among them.
  
That case could and would allow for a crazy jump in price. I better hodl till 2021 no matter what. Grin



at bitserve  see how many hold 1000 coins or more if it is smaller by far maybe the crazy number of 250,000 to 500,000 happens.

This is so fun I read it 3 times.  I have NO IDEA what you are talking about though.


   I write James Joyce stream of consciousness style. It often needs corrections.
I corrected it in the quote above.
I like technical analysis , but I often go completely outside that box as it lacks the parameters that I mention above.  

I am merely have a bit of fun here as I still am hoping my 50-60k guess is too low.


Looks like 215 to 325 trillion dollars  not 50 trillion

so  .5%-1% is   1.62 -  3.25 trillion which means to guess 75000 to 150000 is not that crazy.

would be nice.
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August 01, 2020, 02:48:15 AM
Merited by jbreher (1)




By the way Philiphma, your estimate of total global wealth is 50 to 100 trillion usd.  A quick google search tells me it is more in the 300 to 400 trillion range.


Well to be fair with all the Brrrrr going on he was probably correct when he started typing that post. Cheesy
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August 01, 2020, 02:49:16 AM

Hello, what you recommend use for a Bitcoin Node?  AWS or ANKR?

Actually a raspberry pi 4 works pretty good.  Those other two are gonna cost you 3 digits a month.

But I guess if you are wanting a fast pipe and the best uptime?
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August 01, 2020, 02:59:48 AM

Hello, what you recommend use for a Bitcoin Node?  AWS or ANKR?

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August 01, 2020, 03:00:05 AM

It is going to be difficult to HODL if the price hits $100,000 or close to that range during the bull phase this time. How many of you will sell nothing & be happy to sit through another long crypto winter? Surely everybody is going to take life changing money out this time?

End of 17 I saw as a blowoff top. I'd felt them pop since $32. Pretty much knew what was in store. So I sold, in order to buy My Personal Lambo[tm].





...


...
... A single-digit percentage.

$100K will not faze me.
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August 01, 2020, 03:01:42 AM


Slippery slope there. If you are going to use as your principle 'things trying to be money', there is an argument to factor in USD, Euro, etc.
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August 01, 2020, 03:04:02 AM

Got my new hat for the occasion of crossing $11,000 and staying up there in the past 48 hours. Which is always a nice sight upon it's self. Wink
Thanks goes to xhomerx10 on it and it took him no time at all since were still holding stronger above $11k.


Hi rdbase,
 How about now?

avatar-sized

Now just waiting to say ShAzAm! while wearing this snazzy hat so we can cross the ATH soon. Grin

Nice work.
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August 01, 2020, 03:16:07 AM

Hello, what you recommend use for a Bitcoin Node?  AWS or ANKR?

Actually a raspberry pi 4 works pretty good.  Those other two are gonna cost you 3 digits a month.

But I guess if you are wanting a fast pipe and the best uptime?
TX i try PI 4
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August 01, 2020, 03:25:29 AM

Hello, what you recommend use for a Bitcoin Node?  AWS or ANKR?

Actually a raspberry pi 4 works pretty good.  Those other two are gonna cost you 3 digits a month.

But I guess if you are wanting a fast pipe and the best uptime?
TX i try PI 4

This is a pretty good little package but might be more s/w than you want.  Quite well put together in my opinion... but do your own due dillgence:

https://github.com/rootzoll/raspiblitz

I run that on the 4Gig pi 4.
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August 01, 2020, 03:28:41 AM

Hello, what you recommend use for a Bitcoin Node?  AWS or ANKR?

Actually a raspberry pi 4 works pretty good.  Those other two are gonna cost you 3 digits a month.

But I guess if you are wanting a fast pipe and the best uptime?
TX i try PI 4

This is a pretty good little package but might be more s/w than you want.  Quite well put together in my opinion... but do your own due dillgence:

https://github.com/rootzoll/raspiblitz

I run that on the 4Gig pi 4.
Ok i look. You node setting up easy on this?
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August 01, 2020, 03:30:11 AM

Hello, what you recommend use for a Bitcoin Node?  AWS or ANKR?

Actually a raspberry pi 4 works pretty good.  Those other two are gonna cost you 3 digits a month.

But I guess if you are wanting a fast pipe and the best uptime?
TX i try PI 4

Well and I want to point out.. you can run one on a desktop, or a laptop.  Hell I still have one running in a docker instance on a QNAP NAS.  I ought shut that silly thing down...
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