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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.6%)
$120K - 18 (17.1%)
$130K - 17 (16.2%)
$140K - 9 (8.6%)
$150K - 17 (16.2%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (31.4%)
Total Voters: 105

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26806622 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
nutildah
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September 10, 2020, 04:15:34 AM

SHOCKING: Leaked video of Toxic preparing his charts for posting:

bitebits
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September 10, 2020, 05:21:25 AM


https://blockstream.info/address/1DGwqAM8mV4aJVPidoBp9Zfz8GKhAzLkma
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/ipcanh/damaged_secret_key/
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September 10, 2020, 05:45:34 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), nutildah (1)

nutildah
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September 10, 2020, 05:53:42 AM



You've been posting these for months now (I appreciate it because it confirms what I've suspected for about 2 years) and anyone who still doesn't see the correlation between BTC and the general stock market is out of their goddamn minds (cough... JJG).
BobLawblaw
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September 10, 2020, 06:06:36 AM

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMemeHub/status/1303937002677481480
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September 10, 2020, 06:07:56 AM
Last edit: September 10, 2020, 07:02:21 AM by JayJuanGee



You've been posting these for months now (I appreciate it because it confirms what I've suspected for about 2 years) and anyone who still doesn't see the correlation between BTC and the general stock market is out of their goddamn minds (cough... JJG).

cough\Zoom out a bit, nutildah, and your nonsensical desire for BTC correlation is likely to be a wee bit less convincing

No one, including yours truly, is not recognizing or appreciating the existence of short-term correlation between BTC and equities or even other assets, even a year or two, here and there is going to be correlation, of course.

By the way you notice that Phil_S's above chart only covers 3 months at best?  What you going to see with a three month snapshot, especially if it comes to any kind of meaningful discussion of possible correlation?  Many of us here attempt to understand our context of where we are in bitcoin in terms of where we have been on a longer scale, which also likely gives us some better ideas about where we might be going.. sure, nothing is guaranteed, but 3 months is NOT a long time in the life of king daddy in order to figure out where we are, what is happening currently or even where we might be going, as you should realize by now, nutildah.

Bitcoin also has four-year fractal theories, as you likely realize, that attempt to appreciate BTC's price dynamics and movements.  Four years is a bit longer than 3 months if you had not realized, in order to attempt to appreciate where we might be within a potentially more meaningful cycle... and if you might want to attempt to make broad claims about bitcoin compared to other assets... Again, NOT absolutely determinative, but seemingly better than a three month depiction.

Do you have some overlays that you would like to make with bitcoin and equities or other assets on a four-year or longer time horizon and still argue purported correlation, nutildah?  Let's see how those might end up playing out.

Here's one that is showing a 6-year timeline comparing gold and equities.. so it is a bit longer than 4 years, and longer should be even better, if making BIG claims, no?

Do you notice correlation between BTC, gold and stocks on a six year timeline?

From the linked chart, you see that during the past 6 years, BTC is currently up nearly 12x... gold is up 50% during that same period and equities are up only 33%.  Is that correlation, or what?

Do you believe that in the future, all of a sudden those assets are going to become correlated, merely because they have some appearance of correlation in the past three months?  You don't really believe that do you?  I thought that you were a bitcoiner, nutildah?  You have some other allegiances?  Do you have coins, or no?

Do you have some other asset that you would like to attempt to compare to bitcoin in order to argue purported correlation?   I am waiting.

I doubt anything that you might hypothetically be able to find to compare is going to be as broad of a market and a concept as bitcoin. Yeah, you might show some collectors art or some piece of property or a business here or there, but I doubt that there are any market classes that you could find that is as broad as bitcoin in terms of showing similar price performance/correlation to bitcoin.  I thought that there had already been a lot of smart analysis to show that one of the benefits of bitcoin is the lack of correlation (of course, longer term), but go ahead, nutildah, if you have some asset or some way of actually showing longer term BTC correlation with some other asset(s).

Sure, you can take those same DCABTC comparison charts that I linked above, and you can make the timeline shorter within that website interface.  The shorter the timeline the closer the correlation appears to exist between BTC and stocks and even gold, but again, no one here is arguing that short-term correlation does not exist, including yours truly... and we know that bitcoin has longer cycles (heard of the 4-year fractal?  of course there are some similar models too that are on longer time horizons and would not be locked into short-term appearances, including 1) Plan B's stock to flow model and 2) s-curve exponential adoption theories based on metcalfe and networking principles).

Furthermore, bitcoin also has had a quite a few number of explosive price periods that happen unexpectedly and on only a few days of each year, and you better have your ass (and your assets) in the BTC on those particular few up performance days, otherwise you will be whining like a no coiner or trying to argue for correlation that ONLY exists when you selectively choose your information and point at others as NOT seeing the light, like you happen to see.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

By the way, I appreciate the charts of Phil_S (I especially like those colors), but I surely doubt that those charts are saying very much about correlation or even long-term happenings in bitcoin when they are only covering a very short period of time.. three months in the above case.
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September 10, 2020, 06:29:37 AM
Merited by philipma1957 (2)

short-term correlation between BTC and equities or even other assets

It's not a "short-term correlation" so much as a new paradigm. Let me know when you understand the difference.
JayJuanGee
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September 10, 2020, 06:47:39 AM
Last edit: September 10, 2020, 06:58:17 AM by JayJuanGee

short-term correlation between BTC and equities or even other assets

It's not a "short-term correlation" so much as a new paradigm. Let me know when you understand the difference.

Hopefully, you can grow up a bit and become willing to explain rather making patronizing attempts at playing gotcha.  Has grandma not brought down your cookies and milk, yet?

Go on. Ball is in your court to explain your supposed correlation theory that you were suggesting as to being some kind of contrast to what I believe.  You used the word "correlation" and you also used Phil_S's 3 month chart to make your claims about "correlation" that supposedly contrasted with my beliefs about bitcoin and impliedly others like me - if there are any? / cough.

I already understand the concept of a paradigm shifting technology, and surely bitcoin is likely one of those, but i might be understanding the concept of "paradigm shifting" differently from how you understand "new paradigm," especially since you are proclaiming there to be some kind of mystery "new paradigm" that causes you so much purported contrasting enlightenment about your correlation proclamation, so perhaps you need to explain what you mean by your own terms and desires to differentiate your purportedly more enlightened status.  I am all ears.
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September 10, 2020, 07:02:22 AM
Merited by nutildah (3), Torque (1)

Maybe it's just newly printed brrrr money in HNWI pockets.

They mostly buy stocks with it, but maybe 1% gets converted into bitcoin.
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Free spirit


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September 10, 2020, 07:16:18 AM
Merited by nutildah (2)



You've been posting these for months now (I appreciate it because it confirms what I've suspected for about 2 years) and anyone who still doesn't see the correlation between BTC and the general stock market is out of their goddamn minds (cough... JJG).

Or at least they are acted upon by similar forces
Cryptotourist
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September 10, 2020, 07:35:48 AM

Last but not least - some peoples sex life - is acted upon similar forces. Tongue

Either way, badger does not care.
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September 10, 2020, 07:52:39 AM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

Maybe it's just newly printed brrrr money in HNWI pockets.

They mostly buy stocks with it, but maybe 1% gets converted into bitcoin.

"HNWIs are cautiously interested in holding cryptocurrencies: globally, only 29% of them show a high level of interest, while 26.9% say they are quite interested. The potential of cryptocurrencies, in terms of both investment returns and store of value, is acting as a driver of interest for HNWIs, especially among the youngest. In fact, 71.1% of those under the age of 40 attach great importance to receiving information on cryptocurrencies from the major asset management companies, compared to 13% of HNWIs over the age of 60. But when it comes to providing information on these types of instruments to HNWI clients, wealth management firms have been ambivalent, with only 34.6% of HNWIs globally claiming to have received such information from their wealth managers."

Are you a HNWI interested in Bitcoin? Ask your dedicated Wealth Manager! He will steal you juicy fees for letting you become a HODLer.
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Data from https://www.capgemini.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Capgemini-World-Wealth-Report.pdf
LFC_Bitcoin
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September 10, 2020, 08:04:02 AM


I don’t use paper wallets but to only have one copy & not have it laminated?

School boy errors!
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September 10, 2020, 09:51:32 AM
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https://youtu.be/Idlf_LLyi1o

^
Gogogo

Road to ATH..... continuing
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September 10, 2020, 09:59:26 AM

^
Bullish
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September 10, 2020, 10:51:01 AM

Tether wall at Sep 17th?

https://mobile.twitter.com/CasPiancey/status/1303492532815290369
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September 10, 2020, 12:58:00 PM
Last edit: September 10, 2020, 01:46:52 PM by philipma1957

short-term correlation between BTC and equities or even other assets

It's not a "short-term correlation" so much as a new paradigm. Let me know when you understand the difference.

It started in feb as both the market and btc crashed hard.

It is fairly true for 2020.

Far less true prior to 2020.

Most  likely will not be true in 2021 or 2022.

Part of the reason if was not true prior to 2020 was it was too novel and too small. But this year a lot of  market money has bounced into btc as markets are besides theirselves with fears of a big crash.

It is still too small a cap under 300 bill not to delink from the market.

The real question is not if they are linked at the moment but when does btc pass the market and leave it behind.
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September 10, 2020, 01:05:45 PM
Merited by jbreher (1), ivomm (1)


Math and science prove bitcoin cannot ever have an ATH again. I did the calculations and have been studying the best Chinese and Russian sources, just as I did so many years ago.
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September 10, 2020, 01:20:28 PM



You've been posting these for months now (I appreciate it because it confirms what I've suspected for about 2 years) and anyone who still doesn't see the correlation between BTC and the general stock market is out of their goddamn minds (cough... JJG).

Decorrelation
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not these days at least




#haiku
nullius
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September 10, 2020, 01:36:03 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (2), ivomm (1)

[...]

so purchase price is far lower to earn eth which in my case I autovert to btc.

So my point is mining btc via eth is better then mining btc straight across.

These are indicators of a lopsided ratio that favors mining eth to convert to btc.

[...]

Farmers will create more demand for btc by doing what I do. Mine eth and auto vert to BTC.

Ah, so your thesis is that shitcoin miners will dump their profits into Bitcoin.  Makes sense.  The way I read your prior post (and I read it twice), it came off as implying that the Bitcoin price should rise to equalize profitability over the higher cost of mining Bitcoin, or something of that nature.  Thanks for explaining.

Now if I were Proudhon I would say eth will drop even more and it will level out.

I don’t think that’s a proudhonism.  Most shitcoins should and will go to zero.  Ether probably won’t go to zero anytime soon, but it is way overvalued; and in terms of fundamentals, the ETH2 vapour clusterfork will continue to provide merry entertainment whilst other projects with better technology rise to eat their lunch.  (I’m not even stating that from a Bitcoin-maximal perspective:  If you want a blockchain that does what Ethereum does, but does it without so much failure and frustration, then you should be looking elsewhere...)  So, long-term prospects there are indeed quite bad; and in the shorter term, why wouldn’t dumping by miners help push down the ETH price?  I have seen that happen with others.

Meanwhile, enjoy your ethereally “mined” bitcoins!
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