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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25440363 times)
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machasm
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August 01, 2020, 03:03:46 PM

It looks like this next bull run has well and truly started.
I have been HODLing pretty much most of my corn over the last 6 years apart from a small sell off back in early 2018.
I am now thinking about my next steps to ensure my retirement and to increase my BTC stash to leave as a legacy for my children.
My plan is to cash a small amount out somewhere between 40 to 100K to retire on.
I was thinking that I would continue to HODL 25% of my corn and begin to sell about 75% into a stablecoin backed by gold or some other fairly stable asset (PAXG perhaps?)
Then spread the PAXG over several lending platforms and earn interest while the price of bitcoin takes its natural course back through the next bear cycle (late 2022??).
Once we bottom out and begin the next upward trend after the next halving the plan is to buy back in with PAXG or whatever stablecoin would work.
The reason for using a stablecoin is twofold
1) Receive high interest yield on lending platforms
2) Avoid paying large Capital Gains taxes.

I was interested in my WO bretheren's thoughts on this.
So what do you guys think?

First, I will assume you mean 40K to 100K yearly? Anyway, I am not sure it is a good idea to retire early (another assumption) just having secured expense for only one or two years (another assumption) and taking for granted that they will keep coming or even that BTC couldn't crash dramatically.

Second, stablecoins.. yeah, it is a possible diversification but I wouldn't put all (or most) my eggs onto that. Diversify is key here: FIAT, Stablecoins, real estate, gold, maybe even some stocks (lol).... a mix.

Third, lending platforms? eeeeeeccccckkk Again not where I would put a substantial amount at risk...

In the end it is you who know in detail your finances and what percentages to assign to each asset but, overall, I don't think your plan is solid (IMHO). Sorry about that.

P.S.: Also, you don't avoid paying CGT by going into stablecoins. It is just the same as if you went into FIAT. Again, sorry about that.

Ah wasn't aware that you still pay CGT when going in to stable coins. That definitely puts a spanner in the works.
I didn't explain myself very well regarding cashing out a small portion. I meant I will be selling enough to be able to retire early when the BTC price reaches the region between 40 and 100k. I wasn't specifying the amount I was going to cash out.
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BlackHatCoiner
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August 01, 2020, 03:08:40 PM

Wake me up only when

JSRAW
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August 01, 2020, 03:18:01 PM

Youtube :Bitcoin Documentary | Crypto Currencies | Bitcoins | Blockchain | Digital Currency | Money | Gold
Last of the V8s
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August 01, 2020, 03:46:07 PM
Last edit: August 01, 2020, 04:16:46 PM by Last of the V8s
Merited by 600watt (1)

oh yeah I nearly forgot

https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/1289512294037299200

Quote
happy #bitcoin independence day bitcoiners. #UASF never forget. onwards. upwards.

grab a discreet shirt to celebrate https://twitter.com/bitcoinshirtco/status/1289594028275560448



sorry to dox you JSRAW
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August 01, 2020, 04:17:48 PM

Meanwhile I can't get this straight, small weddings are allowed but facials are still banned. What sort of wedding night do these monsters propose?

Canada is promoting glory holes, so there are still workarounds for facials in some places.

Canadian Health Agency Suggests Glory Holes for Safe Sex Amid Pandemic
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August 01, 2020, 04:20:53 PM

 Roll Eyes


lol


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August 01, 2020, 04:23:40 PM

....snip ...WTF?

Good lord,
that must be some mighty fine ganja you are smoking there dude...
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August 01, 2020, 04:33:50 PM
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Pfiou didn't expect so much upside. I had an order at 10K€ on Kraken that was touched but not executed, many must have had an order there for years, mine is only a few months old. I still can see it gone today.

Nothing too exciting though, just another step on the ladder.

You should not be setting your ladder steps at round numbers, and without getting too caught up in the placement of the orders of other people, of course, you do want to attempt to front-run any order placement locations that might have a lot of resistance/support and therefore even having a decent cushion between your set order and the likely resistance and support points .. some of those resistance / support points are going to be more obvious than others, and other resistance / support points might only develop after you had already placed your orders.

By the way, usually, I personally, don't really monitor or second-guess my ladder orders once I place them.  Except the overall caveat above regarding round numbers and anticipated resistance/support points, I largely place my ladder orders in accordance with my own measurements and preferences rather than giving too many shits about what others might be doing or how they might be changing their orders at specific locations after I had already placed my orders... but hey, I am not saying that there might NOT be some learning involved in such monitoring of how orders are placed and being placed by others and maybe from time to time you might be able to increase the likelihood of your order(s) filling before the price reverses (which tends to be a goal of laddering).  Nonetheless, having said all of that, after you have kind of learned some various strategies, I tend to find it a bit of a waste of time to dicker around very much with my orders or even to monitor how close they are being filled by the behaviors of others, once I have placed my orders.. either they fill or they don't fill.. and once they fill, then I can place the order(s) of the opposite direction.


prolly typo for MtGox

Never put anything past the picnic bear.   Shocked Shocked Shocked

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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August 01, 2020, 04:34:32 PM

....snip ...WTF?

Good lord,
that must be some mighty fine ganja you are smoking there dude...
I blame it on Google Translate.
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August 01, 2020, 04:36:47 PM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1), RejectedBanana (1)

He seems to have lived his life on his own terms.  That alone deserves respect.

Too bad he gave up on reality and started drinking the Kool-Aid. Happens to a lot of successful people, they think that just because they are successful at one thing they are experts in everything.

 The reality is that many people successful or not don't like being told what to do regardless of the consequence.  I don't think there is any new Kool-Aid involved wrt the mask.  Sure, the science is out;

Do you really think that "we" already know about science related to the virus?  whether we are talking about masks or a variety of other aspects of the way that it affects people and the utility, effectiveness or cost benefits of various precautionary measures?  whether we are talking about masks or other possible protections?

 I was referring to the science of the mask itself; it prevents droplets of infected spittle from being expelled from the mouth into the surrounding space not only when coughing or sneezing but also when talking, singing, yelling, cheering etc.  In the early stages of the pandemic, the guidance from WHO was that healthy people need not to wear a mask.  That's logical and rational, right?  That's science.  In general, it's true because the mask is much much better at preventing an infected person from expelling droplets of infected spittle into the air many meters around them potentially infecting others.  Healthy people cannot transmit something they don't have.  That's the science... but wait there's more!  It turns out that many people that had Covid-19 were asymptomatic.  Oops.  Has science failed us?  No, but it turns out (surprise, surprise) that healthy is not an objective description with respect to Covid-19.  Well it's too late.  You've already said, "Healthy people need not wear masks" and the world was listening.  Some countries issued guidance based on that recommendation.  Fast forward a couple of months and now you have to backtrack because it turns out that "healthy" is actually quite subjective.
In my mind, distancing, decontamination and masks should have been used initially to combat the spread before we even toyed with the idea of locking down.  Once we have a proper and plentiful testing kits, then we should have moved to isolating infected people only.  Shutting down the world was a bad idea and we'll have hell to pay for that in the future.  Alas, I am not a Pharmacist.

the science is out on many things which we also ignore on a daily basis without any consideration.  

That's true, but does not mean that we know hardly shit about this particular virus, yet.

Sure, we could pick almost any topic, and there would be controversy about what "science" applies, even though there are some kinds of science that are less controversial than others and even harder to argue against.. such as whether 1+1 = 2 versus if there are some more complicated variables in the equation that needs to be measured.

 I agree on both counts.  One of the things we don't know and no country seems to care to find out is the absolute number of infections.  From early on, we were only testing front-line healthcare workers and people showing symptoms and then we were surprised by the possibility of asymptomatic transmission.
 We don't know what role children could play in the transmission of the virus since they have been isolated for most of this and yet, at least in my region, we are being told that children will be returning to school in September, wearing masks for 6 hours per day and somehow socially distancing for lunches and recesses.  I think we're relying too heavily on the mask in this case.

Speeding, smoking, drinking alcohol, using drugs, unprotected sex, going to the Moon/Mars and not wearing your seat belt...  Some people are more inclined to take risks than others.

Fair enough.. but with a virus, there is more than just a one way street - including potential exponential spreading.. whether you believe that it is contagious or spreadable or not... maybe it is NOT as spreadable as it is made out to be?  some of those aspects of the virus seem to NOT be well known yet, even though I bet that there are some scientist that know way the fuck more than others.  There are also some scientist that are likely full of shit, too.

 The other things I mentioned are not just a one-way street but I'm not going to itemize each one and describe how.   Even if you think they are a one-way street, the third most common cause of death in developed countries is alcohol and it accounts for over 3% of deaths world-wide annually.  Tobacco use causes more than 8 million deaths annually but 1.2 million of those are non-smokers.  I said wasn't going to do that.  Sorry.
 Many scientists are full of shit but at the same time, analyzing data is no easy task.  They likely have good intentions.

I'm not going to condemn the man based on that one thing - it was his choice.  Maybe his death will serve as the motivation for others who are on the fence about wearing a mask to put one on; especially those who are in the "more susceptible" categories.

I will agree with you that notable figures can sometimes serve as a better example (and perhaps resonate with others) better than  not really knowing of any examples or maybe getting bad information in regards to some of the examples that any one of us might hear about... including whether the examples are anecdotal or representative... which comes with study and perhaps with the passage of time and the witnessing of more data, too.

Of course, there are some people who are overly scared and overly precautious. I have some difficulties understanding much if any benefits in wearing a mask outdoor when no people are around, except that maybe there might be some easiness in not having to take it off and put it back on, perhaps... but anyhow, I doubt that there is any real benefit in some of the philosophies of the Corona parties.. when there is purposeful desires to catch the virus in order to help with the increasing of herd immunity, if such a thing exists with this particular virus.  Anyhow, good on you, if you want to purposefully catch Corona virus and somehow serve as an unpaid subject of a study that is still in the process of figuring out a lot of the variables and a lot of the scenarios.

 I think wearing a mask in heavily populated cities outside makes sense.  In other cities where you can actually swing a cat, wearing a mask only when entering enclosed public spaces makes sense.  Increased hand-washing and improved sanitization efforts makes sense everywhere.
 This is merely anecdotal but I've had to continue working throughout this pandemic.  Those who could work from home were told to do so which reduced the number of people physically coming to work to ~400.  If we have symptoms, we must call a special health line to see if we should come to work, we have our temperature checked before entering work through one main gate, they have placed hand sanitizer stations in high traffic areas, we are using distancing and they have employed people to regularly clean/sanitize key areas.  If I we have to work within 6 feet of one another, we must wear a mask otherwise, they are optional (and supplied).  We are not allowed to wear cloth masks at all.  So far, we have had no Covid-19 transmission.
 

The reality is that many people successful or not don't like being told what to do regardless of the consequence.  I don't think there is any new Kool-Aid involved wrt the mask.  Sure, the science is out; the science is out on many things which we also ignore on a daily basis without any consideration.  Speeding, smoking, drinking alcohol, using drugs, unprotected sex, going to the Moon/Mars and not wearing your seat belt...  Some people are more inclined to take risks than others.
 
 I'm not going to condemn the man based on that one thing - it was his choice.  Maybe his death will serve as the motivation for others who are on the fence about wearing a mask to put one on; especially those who are in the "more susceptible" categories.

It's not simply a matter of taking a risk. It's about endangering others.

Though I agree with you at the base of it, I suppose my general feelings are more in line with the idea that each person is responsible for their own choices in regards to this... everything really.

This man paid the price for his own choices.  And I cannot care less about what his opinion is on masks insofar as it's effect on whether or not I wear one.  That is my choice and I own the consequences.  On the other hand there is some theories that masks protect other more than the wearer.  In this regard I believe locally based laws and regs are appropriate.  And if you are breaking the law by not wearing one I think that too should be something one is ready to face the consequences of.

How about the death sentence if there is sufficient proof that your failure and refusal to wear a mask had caused the death of someone else?  Sound good?

 We already have laws to address such situations but my country is abolitionist so the death-penalty is a non-starter.  In saying that, we might have been the first country to execute a person for failing to wear a mask.
https://nationalpost.com/news/senior-haliburton-resident-who-refused-to-wear-mask-at-store-was-shot-dead-in-altercation-with-ontario-police

  Since the onset of this virus, the goal has been to "flatten the curve" not to prevent all deaths due to Covid-19; that's certainly improbable and likely impossible unless a vaccine can be developed.  As we have already seen, some areas have opened up only to have to reinstate lockdowns.  The mask is only on small part of the answer; it's not even necessary for absolutely everyone to wear a mask to accomplish the goal of reducing the curve.  To be honest, I'm more upset about the fact that our supermarkets have stopped having a dedicated employee cleaning the shopping carts as they are returned than seeing the odd person come to the store with his shirt pulled up over his mouth because the security guard at the front door says he needs to wear a mask.

 Sadly, mask rage is a thing.

 Pinpointing the super-spreaders and shutting them down (preferably using non-lethal methods) might be the best way to stop the spread of Covid-19.

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August 01, 2020, 04:37:41 PM
Merited by sirazimuth (1)

Soviet Anthem Misheard (Youtube)

I'm posting this for two reasons:
  • I laughed hard
  • There's a surprise Bitcoin image in there that has been viewed by millions of people
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August 01, 2020, 04:38:56 PM

Meanwhile I can't get this straight, small weddings are allowed but facials are still banned. What sort of wedding night do these monsters propose?

 Glory-holes?
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August 01, 2020, 04:47:22 PM
Last edit: August 01, 2020, 05:38:44 PM by Biodom

It looks like this next bull run has well and truly started.
I have been HODLing pretty much most of my corn over the last 6 years apart from a small sell off back in early 2018.
I am now thinking about my next steps to ensure my retirement and to increase my BTC stash to leave as a legacy for my children.
My plan is to cash a small amount out somewhere between 40 to 100K to retire on.
I was thinking that I would continue to HODL 25% of my corn and begin to sell about 75% into a stablecoin backed by gold or some other fairly stable asset (PAXG perhaps?)
Then spread the PAXG over several lending platforms and earn interest while the price of bitcoin takes its natural course back through the next bear cycle (late 2022??).
Once we bottom out and begin the next upward trend after the next halving the plan is to buy back in with PAXG or whatever stablecoin would work.
The reason for using a stablecoin is twofold
1) Receive high interest yield on lending platforms
2) Avoid paying large Capital Gains taxes.

I was interested in my WO bretheren's thoughts on this.
So what do you guys think?

In US you have to pay taxes on btc to PAXG conversion, however, even with this I am also considering exactly this since I wouldn't want to hold fiat when I presumably sell btc.
Some entities have more interest on PAXG, some less, so you have to be choosy.
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August 01, 2020, 04:58:06 PM

homer going full JJG   Roll Eyes

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Vitalik’s Secret Fashion Show Wink #nohomo
https://twitter.com/DefiWith/status/1289555690747437056
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August 01, 2020, 05:18:09 PM

Yeah, 11,700 was nice to see today. Wonder what will happen next....

Looks like another leg up to $13,000 is within the realm of possibility by the first week of August:


Does your highlighting that area of expected BTC price movement as "blue" cause $13,000 to be more within the realm of price movement possibility or might there be some other factor(s) at play?

Momentum doesn't seem to be slowing down at all. Most momentum indicators remain bullish at least in the short term. This party is far from over boys.

O.k.  Maybe this answers my question.  It's about momentum, and that seems to make some sense.... at least to me.
 
The crypto fear and greed index is still holding strong at 75 (Just inches away from its highest value this year).



I thought that fear/greed index was a reverse indicator?
 
Several other high-quality assets including Litecoin (LTC), Zcash (ZEC), and Ethereum (ETH) are also experiencing some off-side momentum.

Fuck them.  The tail does not wag the dog... at least in my understanding of how the world works.   Tongue Tongue

 
I expect we'll see a reshuffling of the top 10 as undervalued altcoins make their plays.

Could be, but how many shits do we give about those other nine, really, in the whole scheme of things?

 
Of course, nothing will even approach Bitcoin, which I expect will continue to lead the market in terms of growth.

Sing on baby!!!! I cannot disagree with this last sentence of yours.

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August 01, 2020, 05:26:51 PM

Soviet Anthem Misheard (Youtube)

I'm posting this for two reasons:
  • I laughed hard
  • There's a surprise Bitcoin image in there that has been viewed by millions of people

that was hilarious. Thanx.

Reminds me of when I 1st heard Deep Purple's  "Smoke on the Water" and thought the refrain was "Slooooow running Hoooooorses!....."
yeah I know, I'm still deaf to this day....
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August 01, 2020, 05:27:07 PM

homer going full JJG   Roll Eyes

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https://twitter.com/DefiWith/status/1289555690747437056


Thanks.


This is me now.
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August 01, 2020, 05:28:31 PM

I personally think flibfilb does some of the best technical analysis of the corn.  He and @DavetheWave are the two that I feel have a great handle on the market, and have both technical skills from, I'd guess a lot of stonk and macro analysis.

Filbfilb has had keen insight on fairly short timeframes, and DavetheWave has called the basic shape of things from a broad overview with great precision.  I think the scenario filbfilb is putting forth here has a lot of merit.  And it fits with Dave's overall map.  We certainly have room in the bigass triangle to do one more wobble before the big breakout.

But, if I had to bet, I would bet filbfilb is wrong this time.  I don't think we can take any more pressure...  but we'll see.

Same. Aside from masterluc and maybe PlanB, those two are about the only T/A guys I follow. @davthewave's thesis is undoubtedly the most conservative of the bunch, as he doesn't forecast $100K until late 2023. His long-term forecast has been pretty accurate so far though, I'd say.
filb is not slouch either, having called the 2017 top far in advance, and also the eventual bottom.




--------

meanwhile..work continues     #dyor



1h


4h

#stronghands    Grin


"Truly I tell you," he continued, "no prophet is accepted in his hometown."

I come to this thread in no small part to enjoy your analysis and certainly did not mean to imply the exclusion of you in my reverence for a couple twitter accounts.

Merit dumped upon your head. Smiley
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August 01, 2020, 05:30:50 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

homer going full JJG   Roll Eyes

---------
Vitalik’s Secret Fashion Show Wink #nohomo
https://twitter.com/DefiWith/status/1289555690747437056




 
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August 01, 2020, 05:44:18 PM

Soviet Anthem Misheard (Youtube)

I'm posting this for two reasons:
  • I laughed hard
  • There's a surprise Bitcoin image in there that has been viewed by millions of people

Oi. You totally trashed a really good anthem for me forever. :-)

(I used to think as a kid that USSR=Unites States & South Russia. My parents were amused)
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