Not sure where we are going atm, but I do remember that most peeps in here where writing of NO 5-digits this soon .....
I'm going to quibble with you in regards to these various assertions, mcdocduderino.
I am not sure whether there have been changes in the ways that regular active WO members talk about BTC price predictions over the years, but it seems to me that when any member asserts BTC price direction with certainties (whether UP or down), they tend to get bashed by various members in this thread. Of course, many of us have a tendency to bash the Down predictors more frequently and with more force than we bash the UP predictors, even when the odds might be in a bit more in the favor of the down predictors at the moment of the speculative bashenings.
We corrected all the way down to $3,850 on March 12, so surely, there was a lot of uncertainties regarding how long it was going to take to get back to $10k, but it still does not seem to be a fair characterization to be describing so many of us as losing some short term hopes. The reality with any severe BTC price moves is that we can never be sure the extent that we might get stuck in an unfavorable range for much longer than we would wish, so then even if so many of us have longer term expectations that BTC's price moves are going to continue to be UP, we can be all over the place including short-term pessimistic without really losing any of our longer term resolve.
When most veteran
BTC'ers even don't know, that means something
How the fuck are we going to know where BTC prices are going in the short term? Seems unfair to be criticizing us for not knowing where BTC prices are going in the short term, as if we have to have some kind of attempts at sorcery status in order to be credible?
If the BTC price goes shooting up to $17k or $30k, many of us are likely to proclaim.. "holy fucking shit" even while we are prepared for such outrageous Upwards price moves and being blown out of the water at the same time that we are prepared for it. Doesn't really mean much of anything if the whole time that BTC prices shoots up to $17k or $30k (hypothetically) we are proclaiming that we expect a severe correction at any time. These things happen in bitcoin, and how the fuck are we going to know for sure... we expect a correction at any time, but such correction ends up not happening and we are laughing with joy all the way to the bank while we are surprised as fuck, at the same time.
We should be able to simultaneously hold contrary views in our head at the same time, too without suggesting that there is something wrong with our thinking. That is part of the process of not really knowing with any kind of certainty what is going to happen.
Ever since I got into bitcoin, in late 2013, I was hoping a lot that BTC was going to at least be able to average 6% per year returns, which was about the average that I had been receiving with the combination of my various traditional investments, but at the same time I was willing to ride my BTC investment down to zero, because that was the level of my commitment to how much I had chosen to invest into it and allowing my investment play out while continuing to have uncertainties about what such investment was going to do in the short, medium or long term.
So surely while I continued to invest into BTC in the coming years, my resolve was tested a decent amount in the early years of the investment with a decent amount of time that the investment had stayed below 50% of the value that I had put into the investment with several dips that were below 35% of the value of what I had put in, so it became way easier to maintain resolve as the investment got back into the black, that's for sure... but even through all of this, and even through having periods of really great BTC profits (on paper), I felt rich as fuck, but never really lost my hope and expectation that from wherever the BTC price is, if I am adding any to my BTC holdings (including using money that I had gotten from selling some BTC at higher prices) that I expected that any new BTC that I bought should perform in a kind of averaging of 6% per year.. so long as I continue to HODL those newly purchased BTC. Of course, I have been cheating a bit on a regular basis, since about mid-to-late 2016 because my BTC has gained a profit cushion, and surely since about early-to-mid 2017, the cushion has been hardly even coming lose to challenging my hopes for averaging at least 6% per year returns... with the simultaneous contrasting view that I am willing to ride it to zero, if needed (but we also do get a bit spoiled if we have been in profits for a decently long time, too).
In other words, BTC HODLers/accumulators are continuously getting shit circumstances thrown at them, including some of our current shit macro circumstances, and even accounting for the seemingly new and innovative shitcoin pumpening distractions... defi.. blah blah blah..
I continue to believe that there is nothing wrong with NOT taking for granted future BTC price performance, so for example, in most of April when we some of us may have feared that we could be getting stuck in a kind of $6k to $7k price range, there is nothing wrong with prepared both psychologically and financially for BTC prices to go in either direction or even projecting scenarios in which BTC prices might not return to supra 4 digits for a couple of years or longer. To me, that seems like sound and prudent planning rather than demonstrating any kind of lack of BTC commitment... of course, if we are preparing for possible down in the $6k to $7k price range in April 2020, then it would have been lacking in prudence and soundness to either to have been selling on the way down or to be selling too much, so some of the preparations in that timeframe (price range) may well have been to have kept an adequate amount of dry powder (fiat), just in case some of the worse scenarios were to play out, such as another test of $3k or some worser scenarios.. so for each person, the kind of preparation is going to be different.. and some may have already run out of dry powder in that BTC price range, so they may have been faced with either HODL or skimming a bit of BTC off (hopefully profitable ones) to feel adequately prepared for any of the price directions, down, sideways or up.
Of course, now that we have been above $10k for a couple of weeks, there might be some feelings of smugness and even thinking that we are on our way up or even considering that the HODLers who were preparing for the possibility of more down in the $6k to $7k range in April were overly cautious or overly pessimistic, blah blah blah..
Of course, some younger peeps might be able to take more chances in betting upon up (or almost all on up), and/or even some peeps that have a decent ongoing expectation of ongoing good cashflows can take chances in betting upon up (or almost all on up), too, yet my practice and recommendation has been to strive as much as you can to prepare for either price direction, even when extremes happen and even when you may well be preparing a lot more in one direction than the other, you are still taking some reasonable and prudent measures both psychologically and financially to prepare for any of the directions, all at the same time.
BTC is and will be a beast on its own, writing its own story with no one to interrupt.
Sure, we have strong BTC price prediction models, but we also have some potential for considerable variance from the various strong current BTC price prediction models, and we also have some possibilities that the seemingly strong current BTC price prediction models could break, too... in other words, BTC is not Turing complete (thankfully so), so it does continue to have some man-intervention vulnerabilities.. even if we downplay the likelihood of negative consequences from such man-intervention vulnerabilities.
Poll
