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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25440352 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13+ users deleted.)
Last of the V8s
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August 01, 2020, 06:44:52 AM

Well done bulls. Now rest awhile, have some nice hay, cover some females. We attack again at dawn.
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August 01, 2020, 06:50:23 AM

I bitcoin you bitcoin we bitcoin ........... all is good
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August 01, 2020, 06:51:13 AM

Well done bulls. Now rest awhile, have some nice hay, cover some females. We attack again at dawn.

That’s how it’s been going ....
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August 01, 2020, 06:53:12 AM

Eid Mubarak / Happy Eid al-Adha... Peace to everyone.
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August 01, 2020, 06:53:27 AM

People care about euros? huh..

no one cares about €. but it’s a fact that it has been a strong point of rejection. I always wondered why.
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August 01, 2020, 07:08:46 AM

I personally think flibfilb does some of the best technical analysis of the corn.  He and @DavetheWave are the two that I feel have a great handle on the market, and have both technical skills from, I'd guess a lot of stonk and macro analysis.

Filbfilb has had keen insight on fairly short timeframes, and DavetheWave has called the basic shape of things from a broad overview with great precision.  I think the scenario filbfilb is putting forth here has a lot of merit.  And it fits with Dave's overall map.  We certainly have room in the bigass triangle to do one more wobble before the big breakout.

But, if I had to bet, I would bet filbfilb is wrong this time.  I don't think we can take any more pressure...  but we'll see.

Same. Aside from masterluc and maybe PlanB, those two are about the only T/A guys I follow. @davthewave's thesis is undoubtedly the most conservative of the bunch, as he doesn't forecast $100K until late 2023. His long-term forecast has been pretty accurate so far though, I'd say.
filb is not slouch either, having called the 2017 top far in advance, and also the eventual bottom.


Quote
@filbfilb 4 days ago
Bitcoin has only ever closed (the month) above $10770 once before.

3 days and that may change.
https://twitter.com/filbfilb/status/1287890476620808192

^ Puts things in perspective, should not get too obsessed with the flash in the pan ATH. And thanks for the suggestion, following.
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August 01, 2020, 07:16:23 AM

Let's hope we see $12K+ this weekend.
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August 01, 2020, 07:17:16 AM

Bit of a sad Eid for many here with a new round of restrictions in high Muslim population areas - probably coincidental.
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August 01, 2020, 07:18:27 AM
Merited by jojo69 (1)

Meanwhile I can't get this straight, small weddings are allowed but facials are still banned. What sort of wedding night do these monsters propose?
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August 01, 2020, 07:34:14 AM

Boring Eid for me and my GF as well. She's missing home and me homemade Biryani.
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August 01, 2020, 07:49:09 AM


But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion  that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.

The pump is harder.

4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth

I would argue  that shift can't happen in less than 10 years.   12-18 months is a no go.

I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000

Of course I am barring the collapse of the USA dollar as the world standard for wealth.

If that happens hell BTC could be worth 1,000,000 in ten years or less.


this is from another post.

the argument I gave is btc can capture only a certain % of the world wealth.

it got close to .5% in 2017

I simply do not see it going past 1%  or maybe 40-60k

But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point.  This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game.  As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value.

But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it.  It will rise Z when X value is put in.

Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion.  How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion?  I do not believe the answer is 800billion.  Similarly the sales would equal MUCH LESS than 200 billion if bitcoin was to fail and go to zero.

I think I might want to look at this thing the other way around...

I wonder once you take away Satoshi and Hal's family, what the distribution of the really big bitcoin whales looks like.  For example are there only a very few people with say 100,000 bitcoin?

If so bitcoin would have to be a half million USD for people with that much BTC to reach Koch brothers level.
 

I have no issue with the short term idea of 50k late 2020 or early 2021
I just don't see it going much past it.

Most of us are wannabes and  not sitting on 1000btc or more.

Think of a top end guy seeing me come at him with my 100 btc stash. (100 x 300000 = 30 million) While he may have 5 billion I can cause him grief with my 30million.
 

We are not really competing in the kinds of ways that you make out to be.  Bitcoin does not give any shits about these kinds of concerns that you seem to be outlining in terms of who has the BIGGER guns.

Value will gravitate into bitcoin over time because it is the most sound of money, and perhaps your attempt at focusing on which players might have more coins or value is going to all readjust itself in the coming 5-20 years, and the early signs have already shown itself with some considerable redistribution of wealth in the bitcoin direction...and surely, nothing BIG or even grand enough to write home about because we are still in very early bitcoin days with likely currently less than 1% of world-wide adoption, and even any kind of adoption that has gone into bitcoin is amongst certain kinds of techie folks - and maybe a few other variable outliers who had recognized the sound money angle early on.

Even had said all of that regarding bitcoin's immaturity, each bull run brings a new wave, new HODLers studying the space and contributing to its mindspace and a kind of contagiousness that spreads and spreads and spreads.



So I listed the top 10 guys  I think there are 2000 billionaires.

lets argue they own 16 million btc.

and we the little guy owes a total of 2 million btc.  I propose then have a vested interest in not letting us catch up.

2 million x 11,000 = 22,000,000,000  22 billion

they have 8x that or 176 billion

yeah they want more since the average billionaire lives with the "nothing counts but more" motto
 

I think that you have a bit of perverted ideas about both how bitcoin's wealth is distributed or even the various multiplicity of incentives that bitcoin contributes to its own space along with a likelihood that even bitcoin causes traditional monetary systems to become more honest because there is a pretty damned strong sound money system out there in bitcoin, even if bitcoin is relatively quite small compared to various other traditional value systems, but value is going to continue to flow into bitcoin, and little by little by little bitcoin is going to take over more and more of the value space, even though it currently appears as a kind of blip on the radar... maybe slightly BIGGER than a blip, but seemingly tiny and unimportant at the current time.

- like a virus with exponential growth.. yeah it does not seem BIG ,... no it is doubling on a regular basis, but still seems small as fuck, but it is still doubling until all of a sudden, it starts to seem BIG AS FUCK.


they absolutely will control the rise
 

No they won't.

Sure, they will try.

As bitcoin grows, it becomes harder and harder to manipulate.  Yeah, sure, there is always going to be some level of manipulation success, and we have historically seen that where various bearwhales hold bitcoin's price down for as low and for as long as they can, and then all of a sudden the fucking price explodes outside of their control.

Has happened before, and it is very likely to happen again.

Sure, you believe that they are going to be able to stop it at $50-$60k-ish, and maybe this time they will get lucky and they will be able to stop it at those price levels, but I doubt it.  I personally doubt it, but what the fuck do I know?  I am just saying that the models show that this kind of thing has happened over and over and over in bitcoinlandia, and sure maybe this time, they will be able to hold kingdaddy back, but I surely have my doubts and we are going to have to see what actually happens.  Hopefully, you do not sell too much too soon based on such theory of yours, phillip.



bump to 55,000

the lower group now has 110 billion

they have 880 billion.  I believe they would not crash it out at that point. They have most of the coin and they can take profit but they don't have to.

move to 330,000 a coin

the lower group now has 660 billion

they have 5280 billion

certainly they would be really happy with 5280 billion vs the current 176 billion

I do think we that lower 1/9 of the coins would look to be a threat at this point.  They would sell off and not let us grow this high.

Since we would leave the working class and be the "new rich"
 

Your example is coming off as almost looney, phillp.

Maybe I am going to regret saying that you are nicer than me, but still.

You seem to be making up some kind of pie in the sky looney scenario about made up groups purportedly competing with each other, and none of these kinds of fantasy dynamics are happening in bitcoin, except in your head.

No matter if you already have a lot of bitcoin, such as the 10,000 plus club, the 1,000 plus club, the 500 plus club, the 100 plus club, the 50 plus club, the 10 plus club or some smaller variation of smaller potato BTC HODLers, you have all kinds of variations of wealth in the fiat world too, and some of the very wealthy in the fiat world, do not need to have any bitcoin at all and they are capable of joining any of those clubs - after starting from zero BTC.  Sure, they might not go from zero BTC to all of a sudden joining one of the higher club levels, but before bitcoin pumps, they are more than free to enter bitcoin, and bitcoin is liquid enough that they could do it,, if they were to want to.

This is not a game of just those who have coins, but also various levels of wealth are held by individuals, institutions and governments, and sure it is not very likely that some of the current no coiners are going to jump straight into bitcoin, but a lot of current no coiners happen to be pre-coiners, but they might not currently know it, whether we are referring to individuals, institutions, governments or some combination of those future entrants into bitcoin.


I suggest they cap this run at 50 k to 100 k   vs  250k to 330k.  Just so we that lower section do not get too independent.
 

I doubt that there is any "they" that really has much if any choice about this.  The bitcoin cat is already out of the bitcoin bag, and sure some bitcoin holders are going to try to play with bitcoin, but as bitcoin grows it will become more and more difficult to manipulate - even now there are limits to manipulation, in spite of the seemingly pie in the sky scenario that you present, phillip.

I still think the 2020/2021 upside is 50-60k but what the fuck do I really know.
 

You do not seem to know much, phillip, but you are surely entitled to having your theory and investing in accordance with such theory.  Hopefully, you do not sell too much of your BTC too soon based on such a seemingly "out there" theory.

A) I don't have direct contact with the top coin holders
B) I don't have knowledge of the cover virus
C) I don't know the results of the 2020 election.
 

These are all factors, but bitcoin is not controlled only by those three factors.   Much more goes into the extent to which bitcoin continues to serve as a value gravity pull than those three factors.


Just because I  the ultra rich would cap this to 50-60k does not mean I am correct.
 

You are likely NOT correct, but we will see, phillip.  Your theory is possible, but seemingly unlikely to play out how you expect, from my own limited perspective.

Those 2000 billionaires could be very diverse in their btc/crypto holdings.  If only 10 to 100 hold the coins it means they are passing 1900 to 1990 the billionaires so those billionaires could want to buy coins to maintain they places in the billionaire club.  That would mean they would not look at the lower 1/9 gaining as much as they would if the coins are more widely dispersed among them.
 

Of course, currently, there are likely not too many billionnaires that are invested into bitcoin, and even the billionnaires that might be in bitcoin likely only hold a portion of their wealth in bitcoin.

I am not going to deny that redistribution of wealth might NOT end up turning out something like, you are describing, but still at any point in time, any of those fucktwat billionnaires can reconsider his/her investment allocations and they can decide to take a minimal or a large allocation in bitcoin.  So, of course, while BTC prices are lower, billionaires have all kinds of options.

No need to feel sorry for no coiner billionnaires, they will even have options to join bitcoin later, after we have a few more exponential runs.

Sure, they might have lost some opportunities to make more money, but so fucking what?  That is what redistribution of wealth looks like, and those who see where the puck is going are going to do much better than those who are skating where the puck has been.  This is not an all or nothing scenario, and so there are going to be all kinds of variations in how many billionnaires end up getting into bitcoin, and at what point of time that they get in, and they are not gong to be excluded from getting into bitcoin, even if it might cost them more to get in at a later date.  

That case could and would allow for a crazy jump in price. I better hodl till 2021 no matter what. Grin
 

There are a lot of scenarios in which there could be a crazy jump in BTC price, so good thing that you are HODLing rather than acting upon your seemingly weak assessment of how wealth redistribution is likely to play out in the coming years.

at bitserve  see how many hold 1000.  if it is smaller by far maybe the crazy number happens.

In the past, there have been various threads on the topic of coin/wealth distribution, and I did a quick perusal through my BTCTalk thread watchlist, and I found the below ones that might be kind of on such topic.  

The below-linked threads have not been updated recently, so there might be some better or more recent ones, too.

1) Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner

2) I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen.

3)  Who are the richest Bitcoin users and how much do they own?

4) Do you think Institutions secretly HODL Bitcoin?

[edited out]

This is so fun I read it 3 times.  I have NO IDEA what you are talking about though.

Hahahahahaha

Maybe that was what I was trying to say?  but you said it more tersely, cAPSLOCK.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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August 01, 2020, 07:55:17 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), bitserve (1)

it appears that - once again - if we could close at this level the weekly candle on Sunday, only 6 weekly candles ever closed higher. all of those were in late 2017. almost three years.

if it plays out and we get another ath in 2020 or 2021 it would have been in pace the 4 year cycle. it has been said that no bear cycle is like another and this seems true.

2013 - 2016 was more depressive in the way it was an ultra long grind down with no hope.
2017 - 2020 was more volatile and those ups and downs also took their toll.

6 out of more than 500 weekly candles.   Smiley

cheers & enjoy the day.
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August 01, 2020, 08:16:28 AM

This is fine



Something seems too good to be true about how closely those fractals overlap.  They are scaled properly, I hope?

Lol the year 1788. 

We had to lock up all the convicts then and we have had to lock up all the Victorians again this week. 

Is that where you have been Hairy butt?

locked up?
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August 01, 2020, 08:23:42 AM

Big volume on GDAX, 

Never heard of it.

Do they trade bitcoin there?
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August 01, 2020, 08:49:17 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

prolly typo for MtGox
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August 01, 2020, 09:27:57 AM

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August 01, 2020, 09:33:14 AM

@podyx: there is a measly 150 btc sell wall on € stamp at €10k

was eaten to 139 and now back to 150.

it does not seem a big barrier this time around. let's see.  Smiley

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August 01, 2020, 09:43:07 AM

This is fine



Yes HM, good to see you. Looks like we’re perfectly on track, happy days.
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August 01, 2020, 09:49:46 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Pfiou didn't expect so much upside. I had an order at 10K€ on Kraken that was touched but not executed, many must have had an order there for years, mine is only a few months old. I still can see it gone today.

Nothing too exciting though, just another step on the ladder.
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August 01, 2020, 10:09:13 AM
Merited by suchmoon (7), vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1), 600watt (1), Dunkelheit667 (1)

Hello, what you recommend use for a Bitcoin Node?  AWS or ANKR?

Actually a raspberry pi 4 works pretty good.  Those other two are gonna cost you 3 digits a month.

But I guess if you are wanting a fast pipe and the best uptime?
TX i try PI 4

This is a pretty good little package but might be more s/w than you want.  Quite well put together in my opinion... but do your own due dillgence:

https://github.com/rootzoll/raspiblitz

I run that on the 4Gig pi 4.

Here's my RPi 4 8gb running full node, lnd, ntp server with GPS, environmental monitor + case and ssd temp probes, and samurai whirlpool, which actually I don't use. Might throw electrum server on there too.


Edit: Why image no work? https://i.imgur.com/0GPFRv6.jpg

Also, yes, i put the GPS module is a battery case... all I had!
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