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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25440310 times)
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marcus_of_augustus
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August 01, 2020, 03:30:31 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

... well you guys certainly have a penchant for regurgitating the well-studied obvious, and missing some key points.

... but you are only considering (capital) stock to incoming flow (demand), you need to do stock-to-flow properly (including for mining supply).

(hint: bitcoin price in USD on mid-longer term time scales is basically bound by fiat-incoming versus fiat-value of coins being produced)

... ummm, just go and read PlanB's stock-to-flow work, and then start to talk like you know something.



But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion  that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.

The pump is harder.

4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth

I would argue  that shift can't happen in less than 10 years.   12-18 months is a no go.

I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000

Of course I am barring the collapse of the USA dollar as the world standard for wealth.

If that happens hell BTC could be worth 1,000,000 in ten years or less.


this is from another post.

the argument I gave is btc can capture only a certain % of the world wealth.

it got close to .5% in 2017

I simply do not see it going past 1%  or maybe 40-60k

But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point.  This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game.  As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value.

But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it.  It will rise Z when X value is put in.

Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion.  How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion?  I do not believe the answer is 800billion.  Similarly the sales would equal MUCH LESS than 200 billion if bitcoin was to fail and go to zero.

I think I might want to look at this thing the other way around...

I wonder once you take away Satoshi and Hal's family, what the distribution of the really big bitcoin whales looks like.  For example are there only a very few people with say 100,000 bitcoin?

If so bitcoin would have to be a half million USD for people with that much BTC to reach Koch brothers level.
 

I have no issue with the short term idea of 50k late 2020 or early 2021
I just don't see it going much past it.

Most of us are wannabes and  not sitting on 1000btc or more.

Think of a top end guy seeing me come at him with my 100 btc stash. (100 x 300000 = 30 million) While he may have 5 billion I can cause him grief with my 30 million.

So I listed the top 10 guys  I think there are 2000 billionaires.
lets argue they own 16 million btc and we the little guy own a total of 2 million btc.  I propose they have a vested interest in not letting us catch up.

2 million x 11,000 = 22,000,000,000  22 billion
They have 8x that or 176 billion

Yeah they want more since the average billionaire lives with the "nothing counts but more" motto

They absolutely will control the rise so a
bump to 55,000 is allowed to happen

The lower group now has 110 billion
The top level now has 880 billion.  
I believe they the top owners would not crash it out at that point. They have most of the coin and they can take profit but they don't have to.

  If we move to 330,000 a coin the lower group now has 660 billion
They the top group have 5280 billion  Almost certainly they would be really happy with 5280 billion vs the current 176 billion.

The problem is I do think we that lower 1/9 of the coins would look to be a threat at this point.  They would sell off and not let us grow this high.

     Since we would leave the working class and be the "new rich"
  I suggest they cap this run at 50 k to 100 k   vs  250k to 330k.  Just so we that lower section do not get too independent and or too rich.

I still think the 2020/2021 upside is 50-60k but what the fuck do I really know.

A) I don't have direct contact with the top coin holders
B) I don't have knowledge of the cover virus
C) I don't know the results of the 2020 election.

Just because I  think the ultra rich would cap this to 50-60k does not mean I am correct.

 
   Those 2000 billionaires could be very diverse in their btc/crypto holdings.  If only 10 to 100 hold the coins it means they are passing the other  1900 to 1990 the billionaires so those billionaires could want to buy coins to maintain their places in the billionaire club.  That would mean they would not look at the lower 1/9 gaining as much as they would if the coins are more widely dispersed among them.
  
That case could and would allow for a crazy jump in price. I better hodl till 2021 no matter what. Grin



at bitserve  see how many hold 1000 coins or more if it is smaller by far maybe the crazy number of 250,000 to 500,000 happens.

This is so fun I read it 3 times.  I have NO IDEA what you are talking about though.


   I write James Joyce stream of consciousness style. It often needs corrections.
I corrected it in the quote above.
I like technical analysis , but I often go completely outside that box as it lacks the parameters that I mention above.  

I am merely have a bit of fun here as I still am hoping my 50-60k guess is too low.


Looks like 215 to 325 trillion dollars  not 50 trillion

so  .5%-1% is   1.62 -  3.25 trillion which means to guess 75000 to 150000 is not that crazy.

would be nice.

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August 01, 2020, 03:31:28 AM

Hello, what you recommend use for a Bitcoin Node?  AWS or ANKR?

Actually a raspberry pi 4 works pretty good.  Those other two are gonna cost you 3 digits a month.

But I guess if you are wanting a fast pipe and the best uptime?
TX i try PI 4

This is a pretty good little package but might be more s/w than you want.  Quite well put together in my opinion... but do your own due dillgence:

https://github.com/rootzoll/raspiblitz

I run that on the 4Gig pi 4.
Ok i look. You node setting up easy on this?
Super easy... hardest part is waiting for the blockchain to download.  That is also why you need the Pi 4, and the extra ram helps.
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August 01, 2020, 03:42:38 AM
Last edit: August 01, 2020, 04:00:35 AM by jbreher

What I've heard, and it made sense, is that wearing a mask helps 80% to keep the virus in (not infecting other people), but only like 20% to keep it out (not infecting oneself).

That may be true. A mask can restrict how far you might be spewing.

But a respirator is not the same thing as a mask.

Due to my assiduous rotation plan, I have enough N95 respirators to hold for the foreseeable future. I'll happily wear one in public.

Still think the governor is overstepping his authority to demand all must be masked.
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August 01, 2020, 03:57:38 AM

But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it.  It will rise Z when X value is put in.

Price goes up when buyers buy more than sellers sell. It has *nothing* to do with "incoming" money. Market cap is meaningless.

 Huh At the risk of uttering a tautology, exactly as much bitcoin is bought as the amount that is sold.
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August 01, 2020, 04:21:33 AM

But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it.  It will rise Z when X value is put in.

Price goes up when buyers buy more than sellers sell. It has *nothing* to do with "incoming" money. Market cap is meaningless.

 Huh At the risk of uttering a tautology, exactly as much bitcoin is bought as the amount that is sold.

But we are talking about the chaotic dynamic relationship of price, first of the digital asset in the legacy system, and then transforming into the legacy system emulated over the digital asset.  This is where all the opportunities come from...

But yeah, also 1btc=1btc.
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August 01, 2020, 04:23:14 AM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (10), infofront (1)

I personally think flibfilb does some of the best technical analysis of the corn.  He and @DavetheWave are the two that I feel have a great handle on the market, and have both technical skills from, I'd guess a lot of stonk and macro analysis.

Filbfilb has had keen insight on fairly short timeframes, and DavetheWave has called the basic shape of things from a broad overview with great precision.  I think the scenario filbfilb is putting forth here has a lot of merit.  And it fits with Dave's overall map.  We certainly have room in the bigass triangle to do one more wobble before the big breakout.

But, if I had to bet, I would bet filbfilb is wrong this time.  I don't think we can take any more pressure...  but we'll see.

Same. Aside from masterluc and maybe PlanB, those two are about the only T/A guys I follow. @davthewave's thesis is undoubtedly the most conservative of the bunch, as he doesn't forecast $100K until late 2023. His long-term forecast has been pretty accurate so far though, I'd say.
filb is not slouch either, having called the 2017 top far in advance, and also the eventual bottom.




--------

meanwhile..work continues     #dyor



1h


4h

#stronghands    Grin
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August 01, 2020, 04:54:05 AM

I personally think flibfilb does some of the best technical analysis of the corn.  He and @DavetheWave are the two that I feel have a great handle on the market, and have both technical skills from, I'd guess a lot of stonk and macro analysis.

Filbfilb has had keen insight on fairly short timeframes, and DavetheWave has called the basic shape of things from a broad overview with great precision.  I think the scenario filbfilb is putting forth here has a lot of merit.  And it fits with Dave's overall map.  We certainly have room in the bigass triangle to do one more wobble before the big breakout.

But, if I had to bet, I would bet filbfilb is wrong this time.  I don't think we can take any more pressure...  but we'll see.

Same. Aside from masterluc and maybe PlanB, those two are about the only T/A guys I follow. @davthewave's thesis is undoubtedly the most conservative of the bunch, as he doesn't forecast $100K until late 2023. His long-term forecast has been pretty accurate so far though, I'd say.
filb is not slouch either, having called the 2017 top far in advance, and also the eventual bottom.




--------

meanwhile..work continues     #dyor


Sorry. I was thinking of the public figures outside of this thread. I love your work too!
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August 01, 2020, 04:58:19 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), 600watt (1), Toxic2040 (1)

Bitcoin has only been higher for 2.3% of its life. This really puts things into perspective:

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August 01, 2020, 05:03:33 AM


Sorry. I was thinking of the public figures outside of this thread. I love your work too!

naaa...im just teasing you m8...as usual

luc, flib, dave and B are giants...would feel embarrassed to be compared to them, its fairly easy for me here as I have a captive audience..  Wink


now back to work peasant! no rest for the wicked 
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August 01, 2020, 05:14:14 AM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), JayJuanGee (1), LFC_Bitcoin (1), 600watt (1), Dunkelheit667 (1)

This is fine

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1/21000000 , the only math you need to know


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August 01, 2020, 05:14:30 AM

Last of the V8s
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August 01, 2020, 05:15:52 AM

look what the cat dragged in

hallo McHairy
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August 01, 2020, 05:16:27 AM

just as we flirt with the top
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August 01, 2020, 05:17:54 AM

I like the flirty bits
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August 01, 2020, 05:17:57 AM

how's the view from down south?
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August 01, 2020, 05:19:36 AM

It’s a bit like 1788 really
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August 01, 2020, 05:22:57 AM

well it went 11x from there in 6-7 months so notbad I guess

no shrug for you today
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August 01, 2020, 05:25:00 AM

Lol the year 1788. 

We had to lock up all the convicts then and we have had to lock up all the Victorians again this week. 
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August 01, 2020, 05:30:12 AM

Engage 1 minute candles
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August 01, 2020, 05:31:01 AM

and now you get your shrug

we did the same with Manchester

the criminal classes are sick and tired of all this poncey distancing

how can you pick some toff's pocket without getting in close?
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