Bitcoin Forum
July 13, 2025, 01:54:31 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 29.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.6%)
$120K - 18 (17.1%)
$130K - 17 (16.2%)
$140K - 9 (8.6%)
$150K - 17 (16.2%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (31.4%)
Total Voters: 105

Pages: « 1 ... 27008 27009 27010 27011 27012 27013 27014 27015 27016 27017 27018 27019 27020 27021 27022 27023 27024 27025 27026 27027 27028 27029 27030 27031 27032 27033 27034 27035 27036 27037 27038 27039 27040 27041 27042 27043 27044 27045 27046 27047 27048 27049 27050 27051 27052 27053 27054 27055 27056 27057 [27058] 27059 27060 27061 27062 27063 27064 27065 27066 27067 27068 27069 27070 27071 27072 27073 27074 27075 27076 27077 27078 27079 27080 27081 27082 27083 27084 27085 27086 27087 27088 27089 27090 27091 27092 27093 27094 27095 27096 27097 27098 27099 27100 27101 27102 27103 27104 27105 27106 27107 27108 ... 34714 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26806640 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
nullius
Copper Member
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 630
Merit: 2615


If you don’t do PGP, you don’t do crypto!


View Profile WWW
September 10, 2020, 01:39:52 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (2)

Math and science prove bitcoin cannot ever have an ATH again. I did the calculations and have been studying the best Chinese and Russian sources, just as I did so many years ago.


Seriously?  That is just way too pretty to fit my mental image of proudhon.
philipma1957
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 4550
Merit: 10120


'The right to privacy matters'


View Profile WWW
September 10, 2020, 01:45:11 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), sirazimuth (1)

[...]

so purchase price is far lower to earn eth which in my case I autovert to btc.

So my point is mining btc via eth is better then mining btc straight across.

These are indicators of a lopsided ratio that favors mining eth to convert to btc.

[...]

Farmers will create more demand for btc by doing what I do. Mine eth and auto vert to BTC.

Ah, so your thesis is that shitcoin miners will dump their profits into Bitcoin.  Makes sense.  The way I read your prior post (and I read it twice), it came off as implying that the Bitcoin price should rise to equalize profitability over the higher cost of mining Bitcoin, or something of that nature.  Thanks for explaining.

Now if I were Proudhon I would say eth will drop even more and it will level out.

I don’t think that’s a proudhonism.  Most shitcoins should and will go to zero.  Ether probably won’t go to zero anytime soon, but it is way overvalued; and in terms of fundamentals, the ETH2 vapour clusterfork will continue to provide merry entertainment whilst other projects with better technology rise to eat their lunch.  (I’m not even stating that from a Bitcoin-maximal perspective:  If you want a blockchain that does what Ethereum does, but does it without so much failure and frustration, then you should be looking elsewhere...)  So, long-term prospects there are indeed quite bad; and in the shorter term, why wouldn’t dumping by miners help push down the ETH price?  I have seen that happen with others.

Meanwhile, enjoy your ethereally “mined” bitcoins!

A) thanks for post back
B) I am enjoying my eth to btc mining a lot.
C) The internet does cause a lot of misunderstandings. You meaning me write something with a thought in mind. Read what you wrote and say cool.  Then some read it and interprets it in a completely different way then the composer intended it to be understood.
D) I am guilty of writing free flow James Joyce style so occasionally I look at whaT I wrote and say WTF DID I MEAN. Grin

Toxic2040
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1834
Merit: 4197



View Profile
September 10, 2020, 01:53:49 PM

SHOCKING: Leaked video of Toxic preparing his charts for posting:




ivomm
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1915
Merit: 3229


All good things to those who wait


View Profile
September 10, 2020, 02:06:18 PM

[...]

so purchase price is far lower to earn eth which in my case I autovert to btc.

So my point is mining btc via eth is better then mining btc straight across.

These are indicators of a lopsided ratio that favors mining eth to convert to btc.

[...]

Farmers will create more demand for btc by doing what I do. Mine eth and auto vert to BTC.

Ah, so your thesis is that shitcoin miners will dump their profits into Bitcoin.  Makes sense.  The way I read your prior post (and I read it twice), it came off as implying that the Bitcoin price should rise to equalize profitability over the higher cost of mining Bitcoin, or something of that nature.  Thanks for explaining.

Now if I were Proudhon I would say eth will drop even more and it will level out.

I don’t think that’s a proudhonism.  Most shitcoins should and will go to zero.  Ether probably won’t go to zero anytime soon, but it is way overvalued; and in terms of fundamentals, the ETH2 vapour clusterfork will continue to provide merry entertainment whilst other projects with better technology rise to eat their lunch.  (I’m not even stating that from a Bitcoin-maximal perspective:  If you want a blockchain that does what Ethereum does, but does it without so much failure and frustration, then you should be looking elsewhere...)  So, long-term prospects there are indeed quite bad; and in the shorter term, why wouldn’t dumping by miners help push down the ETH price?  I have seen that happen with others.

Meanwhile, enjoy your ethereally “mined” bitcoins!
As a fellow gpu miner I confirm philipma1957's arguments. For example, this year I was able to buy 0.05 BTC per month with my salary savings. A month ago eth/btc price doubled and gas went to the roof. I turned on my home rigs (exactly 1Gh with the last gpu installed today) and with the whole salary used for electricity I got around 3 eth turned into ~0.1 BTC. The daily income for me varies between $15 and 95$, so it is hard to tell what will happen, but I expect this increase to hold in the following months. I guess most miners convert at least 30% into bitcoin. I am a bit too agressive and I converted 60% so far. I also don't have any trust in this eth 2.0 pos thingy, so I will convert all of it before it starts.

Edit. It is good while writing a post to see that the price has increased. Currently $10475. With this pace we will regain $11K in few days or even hours.
Toxic2040
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1834
Merit: 4197



View Profile
September 10, 2020, 02:57:39 PM

early morning card readings

Math and science prove bitcoin cannot ever have an ATH again. I did the calculations and have been studying the best Chinese and Russian sources, just as I did so many years ago.


Seriously?  That is just way too pretty to fit my mental image of proudhon.



#dyor


1h


4h

#stronghands
soullyG
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1011
Merit: 721


Decentralize everything


View Profile
September 10, 2020, 03:06:31 PM

short-term correlation between BTC and equities or even other assets

It's not a "short-term correlation" so much as a new paradigm. Let me know when you understand the difference.

It started in feb as both the market and btc crashed hard.

It is fairly true for 2020.

Far less true prior to 2020.

Most  likely will not be true in 2021 or 2022.

Part of the reason if was not true prior to 2020 was it was too novel and too small. But this year a lot of  market money has bounced into btc as markets are besides theirselves with fears of a big crash.

It is still too small a cap under 300 bill not to delink from the market.

The real question is not if they are linked at the moment but when does btc pass the market and leave it behind.

+10 WO Merits

early morning card readings

#dyor

...

#stronghands

+20 WO Merits (always enjoy your posts Toxic)
philipma1957
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 4550
Merit: 10120


'The right to privacy matters'


View Profile WWW
September 10, 2020, 03:07:24 PM
Merited by Torque (1)

It is not so much that charts are not good. They are incomplete.

It is not so much that my difficulty analysis along with gpu shit coin profit to asic btc profit is good or bad . It is in complete.

Using both are incomplete.  A major reason is any and all cryptocoins are still small market cap.

btc is 10400  x 18.5 mill in the grand scheme of wealth it is very small piece of wealth.

So price manipulation is easy to do.



I also suspect that like banks 🏦 most exchanges do not have all the wealth on hand.

Ie an exchange run 🏃‍♀️ on btc is just as easy to occur as a bank run on fiat.

This is a completely different issue but it is a real and true price drag on btc.

Still I am bullish for now and will be bullish both long and short term.
Biodom
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 4186
Merit: 5175



View Profile
September 10, 2020, 03:24:47 PM
Merited by Torque (1)

Ie an exchange run 🏃‍♀️ on btc is just as easy to occur as a bank run on fiat.

This is a completely different issue but it is a real and true price drag on btc.


bank run= people taking their money out of the bank, bank stops functioning because they run on fractional reserve and don't have money there for everyone to take money out

exchange=should not run on fractional reserve, but even if it does, exchange simply closes (aka MtGox), screwing the participants

I don't see how this is a current drag on price, except a psychological blow (in case of MtGox).

BTW, people keep taking btc off of exchanges, so, maybe, all exchanges are ultimately doomed, apart from DEXes.
One can say that exchanges always need an influx of new users, otherwise experienced users will empty them (apart from price spikes when people deposit back).
proudhon
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311



View Profile
September 10, 2020, 03:25:12 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1)

Adding to this analysis with confirmed math and science:

Toxic2040
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1834
Merit: 4197



View Profile
September 10, 2020, 03:44:21 PM


+20 WO Merits (always enjoy your posts Toxic)






---------



It is not so much that charts are not good. They are incomplete.

It is not so much that my difficulty analysis along with gpu shit coin profit to asic btc profit is good or bad . It is in complete.

Using both are incomplete.  A major reason is any and all cryptocoins are still small market cap.

btc is 10400  x 18.5 mill in the grand scheme of wealth it is very small piece of wealth.

So price manipulation is easy to do.



I also suspect that like banks 🏦 most exchanges do not have all the wealth on hand.

Ie an exchange run 🏃‍♀️ on btc is just as easy to occur as a bank run on fiat.

This is a completely different issue but it is a real and true price drag on btc.

Still I am bullish for now and will be bullish both long and short term.


cAPSLOCK
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 4074
Merit: 6238



View Profile
September 10, 2020, 03:57:35 PM

Adding to this analysis with confirmed math and science:



Since we are entering the "Epoch of Unscience" I can confirm that this analysis of Analysis is moot.
jojo69
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3584
Merit: 5167


diamond-handed zealot


View Profile
September 10, 2020, 03:57:47 PM

soullyG
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1011
Merit: 721


Decentralize everything


View Profile
September 10, 2020, 03:58:51 PM

ivomm
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1915
Merit: 3229


All good things to those who wait


View Profile
September 10, 2020, 04:02:23 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (1)

Adding to this analysis with confirmed math and science:



d_eddie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2926
Merit: 4499



View Profile
September 10, 2020, 04:03:58 PM



Contaminating your vital fluids, are they?
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 4144
Merit: 12518


Self-Custody is a right. Say no to "non-custodial"


View Profile
September 10, 2020, 04:47:36 PM

Maybe it's just newly printed brrrr money in HNWI pockets.

They mostly buy stocks with it, but maybe 1% gets converted into bitcoin.

"HNWIs are cautiously interested in holding cryptocurrencies: globally, only 29% of them show a high level of interest, while 26.9% say they are quite interested. The potential of cryptocurrencies, in terms of both investment returns and store of value, is acting as a driver of interest for HNWIs, especially among the youngest. In fact, 71.1% of those under the age of 40 attach great importance to receiving information on cryptocurrencies from the major asset management companies, compared to 13% of HNWIs over the age of 60. But when it comes to providing information on these types of instruments to HNWI clients, wealth management firms have been ambivalent, with only 34.6% of HNWIs globally claiming to have received such information from their wealth managers."

Are you a HNWI interested in Bitcoin? Ask your dedicated Wealth Manager! He will steal you juicy fees for letting you become a HODLer.
 Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Data from https://www.capgemini.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Capgemini-World-Wealth-Report.pdf

NOT only is that report from mid-2018, so more than two years old and a lot of matters have been changing in the bitcoin/crypto space in two years, but also there may be a lot of gobbledy-gook contained therein, not only in terms of what kind of information some wealth manager might be willing to provide but also financial vehicles that they consider to be practical, and direct investing in bitcoin would probably not be one of the ways that they would recommend HNWI to be investing, even if it is a relatively small allocation such as 1% and would they even be going so bold as to even considering some kind of investment into bitcoin that would be so high as 10%, even though that could be a reasonable and prudent approach for some HNWI.

Another aspect is the cryptocurrency language that is used in the article, which causes me to wonder even if they understand the difference between bitcoin and shitcoins - which is largely a necessary angle of understanding in order to even be attempting to engage in long term investing rather than throwing darts kind of gambling.

On the other hand, there is probably some kind of point to the fact that more and more attention is getting paid to bitcoin and it is leaking to the HNWI - even though many of them are still likely receiving so much misinformation that the information that they are receiving is skewing their thoughts in such a way that they HNWI may at some point realize that they better engage in a bit of their own research rather than being limited and channeled by the supposed expertise of wealth managers, in which likely only a fraction of the wealth managers are providing realistic information, when it comes to what bitcoin actually is, how bitcoin is differentiated from shitcoins and also what place bitcoin and/or shitcoins might play in terms of the broader market, whether referring to the relation to gold and other PMs or stocks and bonds.

I hate to overly generalize, but it seems that likely the more reliant that HNWI are upon money/wealth managers, the more likely that regular peeps are going to be able to front run them in terms of getting into bitcoin before them.  Many of us who are active in this thread have already engaged in a decent amount of front running of such HNWI - and surely, little by little they are going to figure out that some combination of direct investing in BTC might be prudent, even though maybe a lot of them who might be connected to businesses or other traditional investment vehicle limitations might handicap themselves if they are totally reliant on having to go through those traditional investment vehicles that are still developing in the bitcoin space.... oh and some of them will end up getting distracted in some kind of hybrid combination of bitcoin and various shitcoins, which likely is not going to work out as well as buying bitcoin directly, so we surely are going to continue to see a learning process regarding the entrance of HNWI into this space that may frequently be through various investment vehicles that are touted by their wealth/money managers.
philipma1957
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 4550
Merit: 10120


'The right to privacy matters'


View Profile WWW
September 10, 2020, 04:50:17 PM
Last edit: September 10, 2020, 05:24:45 PM by philipma1957

Ie an exchange run 🏃‍♀️ on btc is just as easy to occur as a bank run on fiat.

This is a completely different issue but it is a real and true price drag on btc.


bank run= people taking their money out of the bank, bank stops functioning because they run on fractional reserve and don't have money there for everyone to take money out

exchange=should not run on fractional reserve, but even if it does, exchange simply closes (aka MtGox), screwing the participants

I don't see how this is a current drag on price, except a psychological blow (in case of MtGox).

BTW, people keep taking btc off of exchanges, so, maybe, all exchanges are ultimately doomed, apart from DEXes.
One can say that exchanges always need an influx of new users, otherwise experienced users will empty them (apart from price spikes when people deposit back).

It is a tough call I certainly could be wrong.  But here goes nothing.

If I say my exchange has 100,000 btc on hand in real deposits it can allow for a shit ton of trading.

If a shit ton of trading is done with non existent  coins  the supply is falsely boosted.  If supply is 50,000 not 100,000.  Trading is easily 2x what it should be doing.  Since it is easy to do it creates the illusion that demand is easy to meet.

If all of the above is 'true' and exchanges are far short of what they say they have. The traders of the world are buy-ing easy coins due to falsely reported supply.

Since I have zero idea how true all of the above is in terms of true supply really on hand I am merely guessing that it is falsely reported at 2x or 3x the true circulating number of 6.5 mill.  Based on earlier post I did showing that 11 million coins have stayed in place over 1 year in a row.
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 4144
Merit: 12518


Self-Custody is a right. Say no to "non-custodial"


View Profile
September 10, 2020, 05:00:19 PM

short-term correlation between BTC and equities or even other assets

It's not a "short-term correlation" so much as a new paradigm. Let me know when you understand the difference.

It started in feb as both the market and btc crashed hard.

It is fairly true for 2020.

Far less true prior to 2020.

Most  likely will not be true in 2021 or 2022.

Part of the reason if was not true prior to 2020 was it was too novel and too small. But this year a lot of  market money has bounced into btc as markets are besides theirselves with fears of a big crash.

It is still too small a cap under 300 bill not to delink from the market.

The real question is not if they are linked at the moment but when does btc pass the market and leave it behind.

BTC already has left the market behind.

The mere fact that you can draw short-term correlation between February 2020-ish to present, hardly means shit.

It's like cavemen looking at shadows in a cave trying to proclaim that they know what is going on outside the cave, when it would be much more informative to look outside the cave and determine directly what is going on rather than relying upon shadow interpretation (aka limited information).
philipma1957
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 4550
Merit: 10120


'The right to privacy matters'


View Profile WWW
September 10, 2020, 05:28:10 PM


+20 WO Merits (always enjoy your posts Toxic)






---------



It is not so much that charts are not good. They are incomplete.

It is not so much that my difficulty analysis along with gpu shit coin profit to asic btc profit is good or bad . It is in complete.

Using both are incomplete.  A major reason is any and all cryptocoins are still small market cap.

btc is 10400  x 18.5 mill in the grand scheme of wealth it is very small piece of wealth.

So price manipulation is easy to do.



I also suspect that like banks 🏦 most exchanges do not have all the wealth on hand.

Ie an exchange run 🏃‍♀️ on btc is just as easy to occur as a bank run on fiat.

This is a completely different issue but it is a real and true price drag on btc.

Still I am bullish for now and will be bullish both long and short term.




Charts will always be an incomplete predictive method for btc. As is my diff prediction and eth to btc mining ratios are incomplete.

combining both is helpful but are still incomplete predictive methods even when used together.
nullius
Copper Member
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 630
Merit: 2615


If you don’t do PGP, you don’t do crypto!


View Profile WWW
September 10, 2020, 05:38:50 PM
Merited by strawbs (1)

Charts will always be an incomplete predictive method for btc. As is my diff prediction and eth to btc mining ratios are incomplete.

combining both is helpful but are still incomplete predictive methods even when used together.

If there existed such a thing as a complete predictive method for financial markets (a.k.a. a “crystal ball”), and if you possessed it, then you would be using it to gain unbounded wealth—and you would not be posting about it on an Internet forum.

That sounds obvious.  But it bears noting, whereas too many people forget it—especially on the Internet...

(Other stuff to reply to, but no time.  Cheers & thanks for the reply.)
Pages: « 1 ... 27008 27009 27010 27011 27012 27013 27014 27015 27016 27017 27018 27019 27020 27021 27022 27023 27024 27025 27026 27027 27028 27029 27030 27031 27032 27033 27034 27035 27036 27037 27038 27039 27040 27041 27042 27043 27044 27045 27046 27047 27048 27049 27050 27051 27052 27053 27054 27055 27056 27057 [27058] 27059 27060 27061 27062 27063 27064 27065 27066 27067 27068 27069 27070 27071 27072 27073 27074 27075 27076 27077 27078 27079 27080 27081 27082 27083 27084 27085 27086 27087 27088 27089 27090 27091 27092 27093 27094 27095 27096 27097 27098 27099 27100 27101 27102 27103 27104 27105 27106 27107 27108 ... 34714 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!