Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ErisDiscordia]

This is the great bete noir of our time.

We have known for a long time that the way Bitcoin REALLY gains value is at the cost of social stability.  And we are seeing it play out in real time today.

And it is like a race.  We are becoming paper millionaires, and even higher, but at the same time the unit of account we use today is melting down.

$10,000,000 BTC is a bad thing if a loaf of bread is $100k.

I think there are SOME people whose plan (or hope) is the financial system melts down completely so we can bring forth (pick your story here) socialism, and CDBCs, or freedom and BTC.

And of course WE are all rooting for the latter.  But we will also be affected by the absolutely and dire misery that this road leads to.

But a slow orderly march to a sound monetary system???  Chances of that?  Seeming to get smaller by the day to me.

The longer the Bitcoin network is able to grow while the legacy financial system is still working (such as it is), the smoother the transition may be. It is essential for the alternative to be more or less ready when the old system collapses, otherwise the ensuing chaos will scare us into appointing strongmen promising to rebuild what was before.

Atheism doesn't arise after you burn down all the churches. In the same way, monetary freedom doesn't arise after the legacy financial system is destroyed. In both cases, we first have to change peoples' minds by showing them that alternatives not only exist, but are far more preferable to what is now. For that, the alternatives have to cross a threshold of accessibility and in Bitcoin's case also scalability.

Sometimes I think back to times before Bitcoin and how difficult it was to be in a position of criticising the status quo. Inevitably the question would come, delivered by a smug normie driven to use their last best fool-proof "gotcha": "if you are so smart then what is your proposed system? What is your solution?" *cricket noises*

Today I can point them to the white paper and depending on how charitable I'm feeling that day, either help them get on their way to understanding, or simply wish them the best of luck within the old system & HFSP.

EDIT: This made me think...how does everyone feel about explaining crypto to newcomers nowadays? Or participating in crypto discussions in general?

I am quite burned out on this. Back when I got into BTC I gave literal lectures to audiences about it. I would talk with anyone interested, sometimes for hours. But today? I feel like I've heard it all before one too many times. Replying to the media-driven FUD du jour. Hearing the same tired objections for the 1000x. Seeing the gargantuan chasm in understanding that even well-educated and smart people have to cross to get from normie-brain to Bitcoin understanding. I rarely engage with any of this anymore. Thinking there are enough resources to help you understand. In the end, everyone buys BTC at the price they deserve to.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[machasm]

This is the great bete noir of our time.

We have known for a long time that the way Bitcoin REALLY gains value is at the cost of social stability.  And we are seeing it play out in real time today.

And it is like a race.  We are becoming paper millionaires, and even higher, but at the same time the unit of account we use today is melting down.

$10,000,000 BTC is a bad thing if a loaf of bread is $100k.

I think there are SOME people whose plan (or hope) is the financial system melts down completely so we can bring forth (pick your story here) socialism, and CDBCs, or freedom and BTC.

And of course WE are all rooting for the latter.  But we will also be affected by the absolutely and dire misery that this road leads to.

But a slow orderly march to a sound monetary system???  Chances of that?  Seeming to get smaller by the day to me.

The longer the Bitcoin network is able to grow while the legacy financial system is still working (such as it is), the smoother the transition may be. It is essential for the alternative to be more or less ready when the old system collapses, otherwise the ensuing chaos will scare us into appointing strongmen promising to rebuild what was before.

Atheism doesn't arise after you burn down all the churches. In the same way, monetary freedom doesn't arise after the legacy financial system is destroyed. In both cases, we first have to change peoples' minds by showing them that alternatives not only exist, but are far more preferable to what is now. For that, the alternatives have to cross a threshold of accessibility and in Bitcoin's case also scalability.

Sometimes I think back to times before Bitcoin and how difficult it was to be in a position of criticising the status quo. Inevitably the question would come, delivered by a smug normie driven to use their last best fool-proof "gotcha": "if you are so smart then what is your proposed system? What is your solution?" *cricket noises*

Today I can point them to the white paper and depending on how charitable I'm feeling that day, either help them get on their way to understanding, or simply wish them the best of luck within the old system & HFSP.

EDIT: This made me think...how does everyone feel about explaining crypto to newcomers nowadays? Or participating in crypto discussions in general?

I am quite burned out on this. Back when I got into BTC I gave literal lectures to audiences about it. I would talk with anyone interested, sometimes for hours. But today? I feel like I've heard it all before one too many times. Replying to the media-driven FUD du jour. Hearing the same tired objections for the 1000x. Seeing the gargantuan chasm in understanding that even well-educated and smart people have to cross to get from normie-brain to Bitcoin understanding. I rarely engage with any of this anymore. Thinking there are enough resources to help you understand. In the end, everyone buys BTC at the price they deserve to.

I know how you feel about explaining to noobs.
For me I still have a go. If they seem genuinely interested then I give them a quick overview and then point them to some YouTube sources explaining the basics.
I also refer them to “the Bitcoin standard” by A. saifdean.
I also tell them that it will take quite a while to get to grips with even the basics and will engage with them further once they have done some basic homework.
As for parting with my precious as an incentive? Never!

[BobLawblaw]

Kinda reminds me of this...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I need 125k x 30 = 3,750,000

I would be 94 and who cares at that point.

I have a lot of that in the form of fed government pensions.

But I would like the 3.75mil and the pensions so that the pension can not be held over my head or my wife head.

You are describing a situation in which you anticipate withdrawing both principle and interest.  So you likely need way less than $3.75 million if you were to want to withdraw $125k per year.. .but sure does not hurt to have a cushion in terms of having more principle that you might not need to withdraw.

Traditional withdrawal systems presume that you can earn on average at least a 4% return per year on your principle, so that you should be able to withdraw up to 4% per year so long as you are exceeding that rate in your return on average, without depleting your principle, so if you are able to get such 4% per year on that $3.75 million should be able to get you about $150k per year in withdrawal (without necessarily drawing into the principle so long as your returns are exceeding the withdrawal rate).   I personally believe that bitcoin can do at least 4%, and likely can do quite a bit better than 4% so long as you figure out ways to conservatively calculate the value of your principle.

Of course, we cannot be sure about inflation to be able to continue to live off of $125k per year.. so that is a bit of a problem with projecting out a budget of $125k per year because it should presume some amount of inflation, too...especially these days.

There are a variety of ways to value your BTC holdings beyond merely going by spot price, and part of the reason, that I prefer to use the 208-week average as my value indicator for my BTC portfolio is because it is so much of a lagging indicator that you would be able to see if you are not able to withdraw as much (or at as high of a rate as you had been anticipating) and it allows for more cushion in terms of conservation of the principle.  

[edited out]

A nice read.

Summary: 21 BTC.

Ok  21 BTC is enough.

Are you saying right now that 21 BTC is enough or that 21 BTC is enough in a kind of maintenance level way?

I have some kind of a projection systems that I use that show the number of BTC that I currently have and then I project out the quantity of BTC that I expect to have in the future as the BTC price goes up, and so hypothetically, if I were to start out with 21BTC now, based on my current way of projecting out, I would anticipate if BTC prices were to shoot up to $1.2 million, then I might only have around 18.4BTC... so sure that is a possible ratio that still works...

However, I suppose that if you were to want to end up with 21 BTC by the time the BTC price reaches $1.2 million, then you would need something like 24BTC currently.  

Those are just approximate withdrawal ratios that I currently have in my BTC price projections and BTC portfolio expectations in the event such a BTC price rise up to $1.2 million were to happen.

[ edited out]

 So, JJG if you see this, that should give you the info you need to know whether I am crazy or not.

Just because another forum member agrees with you, including your nonsense discussion of a shitcoin in these here parts, that does not mean anything about whether you are not crazy.. #justsaying.

[savetherainforest]

[...]


Ok  21 BTC is enough.


[...]

JJG ... you will grow old poor.

[JayJuanGee]

[...]


Ok  21 BTC is enough.


[...]

JJG ... you will grow old poor.

You think so?

There are a quite a few people without even close to having a BTC portfolio quantity of 21BTC, and I am ONLY admitting the vast majority of my stash to be above 0.63 BTC currently... so I was talking hypothetically when referring to whether starting out now with 21 BTC or having 21 BTC when BTC reaches $1.2 million per BTC, for example.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

Seeing some short-term resistance from the bearish sloping 200 MA on 4hr chart. Doesn't look that problematic, but is currently rejecting $51K+ levels for now at least:



$49K is starting to look like a confluence of strong support if $50K doesn't hold in the short-term and price get's rejected at current levels. The 50 MA is rising bullish and moving above the VPVR point of control, also lines up with the 0.5 fib retracement level. There's still fear in the market so remains a good dip buying opportunity, but since the move above $50K people seem to have lost their patience, instead wanting to buy into a break-out, as opposed to waiting to buy dips. Despite having nearly 3 weeks to buy sub $50K levels, many were waiting for lower lows and now buying $50K+ levels it seems.

Needless to say the weekly close confirmed the bullish macro-trend remains in tact with a bullish engulfing candle, and was never affected by short-term price action anyway. No doubt why many did bother to buy sub $50K prices. While a re-test of $48.25K, where the 50 Week MA lies remains more than possible, or the 200 Day MA @ $47.6K, given the strong close last week both possibilities are starting to look less likely. Like many others have pointed out, it's starting to look like the July/September lows. All that is left is for some volume for bullish follow through, now the bearish weakness has confirmed itself.

With last weeks candle I'm starting to consider $53K as being weaker resistance than previously expected. The short-term resistance trend-line is starting to look irrelevant, and chances of a break-out to the $54.8K-58.2K distribution zone is looking more probable, depending on how much volume arrives. Breaking above the 50 Day MA around $54.5K without so much of a re-test in the near term is relatively common in marco bull markets when the short to mid-term changes from bearish to bullish. There is additionally a notable volume gap between $51K-$54.8K, that like $40K-45K, it doesn't appear to need filling.

Something tells me January is going to be a good month, and most of 2022 even better, until then price might stagnate a bit. Likewise if the year closes below $48K support, price might be in trouble.

[shahzadafzal]

beautiful <3

https://twitter.com/naiiveclub/status/1475404164276445188?s=20

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Syke]

Not really, of course, right now, but in 1981, the interest rate was 15.8%, imagine that.

Savings accounts died in 1971. Numerous investment opportunities exist for those who do their own research.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shahzadafzal]

The pain is real…!!!

[Wexlike]

cup and handle in the making in the 1w chart.


/off to my cave at the beach for a few months

[savetherainforest]

The pain is real…!!!

Nice catch! +1 ...


The moment they start advertising for their friends to be able to buy more cheap and the price to keep going semi-sideways for them to have time to grab some more without pushing-pumping the price too much, it's the moment they lost, officially. ... I guess We will see them do the biggest FOMO ever seen in BTCiTcoin history.              

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Observing $51,057 & hopeful of a continuation of the bull run. I know I sold 25% (after so many years hodling) but nothing would make me happier than seeing us break out to the upside & see new ath’s in 2022. I feel like we’re at a bit of a crossroads at the moment. As JJG says, this feels like no mans land. We’re either going to pump massively or the bull run is over & we go below $30,000.

I’m well prepared for either direction but much prefer up. I just don’t think we’re going to consolidate in this current price range for long. It’ll be a volatile move in either direction soon.