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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26390028 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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January 23, 2023, 08:36:35 PM

For the time I have been involved in Bitcoin 5 conversions are actually not that many, but as I wrote before I'm not doing it actively...

And of course, in case sirazimuth doesn't talk about being in BTC to anyone irl, I could certainly understand that his count is 0.
But otherwise being in this space for 8 years without infecting anyone with the BTC-virus is a bit difficult to understand for me  ...especially since BTC is such a grand innovation...
Maybe my contrast was largely intended to suggest that getting someone into bitcoin might still cause questions regarding how committed they happen to be../.and yeah maybe we are quibbling.. and I know that I touched some folks in regards to my bitcoin discussions with them, and in some of those cases, we are not in very good touch, so I wonder how committed that they might be in regards to if they ever bought bitcoin or if they held onto bitcoin that they said that they bought.
I understand. For sure many newcoiners might not have the battle tested diamond hands that many WOers have.

When it comes to my surrounding I make it very clear that BTC is not a get-rich-quick vehicle.  So most of my "conversions" have a time horizon of many years, some even 10-15 years.  And I guess I couldn't expect more than that from a newbie.

Of course, I know that these kinds of people exist - but I find people to NOT want to commit to such long time horizons, even if they say that they are ready, willing and able to do it. 

When I got into bitcoin (in late 2013) I was thinking 1-2 years minimum... and so I was not even so strict upon my lil selfie as to really lock myself in, and frequently, since about 2017/2018, I tell people that the investment thesis is so much stronger now than it was in 2013, that any of us should be able to attempt to conceptually lock ourselves into a 4-10 year or longer investment time horizon right from the start of getting into bitcoin.  I am telling people that because I think that my own conviction has adjusted but also I think that the actual investment justifies the ability to get into it with a 4-10 year or longer investment time horizon. 

When I talk with people about this 4-10 year or longer investment timeline, they say the right words like "yes, that sounds right" but I really don't get the sense that anyone really wants to commit to anything that long.. and even 2 years is feeling like a long time for them.... of course, there can be circles in which people have more confidence and are able to show more enthusiasm.. but normies seem to have a lot of reluctancies to really buckle into a long term investment plan that includes bitcoin as one of the components.. whether that is a low allocation such as 1% of their total quasi-liquid investment portfolio or something more aggressive up to 25%.

Maybe my recent interactions are skewing my judgement a bit, because I know that between late 2015 and early 2019, I had quite a few more interactions with people who were more apparently inwardly motivated towards establishing and maintaining a longer term investment thesis in bitcoin, and some of those people were already somewhat predispositioned towards bitcoin by the time that I had spoken with them as compared with folks who seem to be getting a vast majority of information from me or from the contrasting misinformation that they seem to be getting off of mainstream media sources.
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January 23, 2023, 09:01:37 PM


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philipma1957
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January 23, 2023, 09:26:01 PM

Democrats push to eliminate the debt ceiling, allow unlimited government borrowing.

Quote
Dozens of House Democrats have proposed legislation that would eliminate the debt ceiling, which would allow the government to borrow without any limit set by Congress.

The federal government hit the $31.381 trillion debt ceiling last week, and House Republicans are pushing for commitments to cut back on the record growth in federal spending before agreeing to allow more borrowing. But Democrats accuse Republicans of setting up the possibility of prohibiting a debt ceiling hike, which would make the government unable to fund all of its current obligations.

Democrats say a better idea is to eliminate all limits on federal borrowing and allow the government to borrow whatever it needs.

they are correct.

 and it should be great for BTC
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January 23, 2023, 10:01:17 PM
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January 23, 2023, 10:16:41 PM
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When I got into bitcoin (in late 2013) I was thinking 1-2 years minimum... and so I was not even so strict upon my lil selfie as to really lock myself in, and frequently, since about 2017/2018, I tell people that the investment thesis is so much stronger now than it was in 2013, that any of us should be able to attempt to conceptually lock ourselves into a 4-10 year or longer investment time horizon right from the start of getting into bitcoin.  I am telling people that because I think that my own conviction has adjusted but also I think that the actual investment justifies the ability to get into it with a 4-10 year or longer investment time horizon. 

When I talk with people about this 4-10 year or longer investment timeline, they say the right words like "yes, that sounds right" but I really don't get the sense that anyone really wants to commit to anything that long.. and even 2 years is feeling like a long time for them.... of course, there can be circles in which people have more confidence and are able to show more enthusiasm.. but normies seem to have a lot of reluctancies to really buckle into a long term investment plan that includes bitcoin as one of the components.. whether that is a low allocation such as 1% of their total quasi-liquid investment portfolio or something more aggressive up to 25%.

Maybe my recent interactions are skewing my judgement a bit, because I know that between late 2015 and early 2019, I had quite a few more interactions with people who were more apparently inwardly motivated towards establishing and maintaining a longer term investment thesis in bitcoin, and some of those people were already somewhat predispositioned towards bitcoin by the time that I had spoken with them as compared with folks who seem to be getting a vast majority of information from me or from the contrasting misinformation that they seem to be getting off of mainstream media sources.

Agreed in a more general way, the concept of along term investment is that long term definition has turned into a couple of years where I would go further and say it’s at minimum 10yrs to 30yrs. It almost lines up to a mortgage term and that’s how I see long term in any investment. In relation to btc and the first ones in is there any on chain data would could get a gauge on how much stuck to at least 10yrs holding.
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January 23, 2023, 10:48:48 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1), OutOfMemory (1), Gachapin (1)

10 merit for ivomm

But should also DE-merit for bear prices in the good content….
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January 23, 2023, 11:01:17 PM


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philipma1957
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January 23, 2023, 11:11:28 PM



When I got into bitcoin (in late 2013) I was thinking 1-2 years minimum... and so I was not even so strict upon my lil selfie as to really lock myself in, and frequently, since about 2017/2018, I tell people that the investment thesis is so much stronger now than it was in 2013, that any of us should be able to attempt to conceptually lock ourselves into a 4-10 year or longer investment time horizon right from the start of getting into bitcoin.  I am telling people that because I think that my own conviction has adjusted but also I think that the actual investment justifies the ability to get into it with a 4-10 year or longer investment time horizon. 

When I talk with people about this 4-10 year or longer investment timeline, they say the right words like "yes, that sounds right" but I really don't get the sense that anyone really wants to commit to anything that long.. and even 2 years is feeling like a long time for them.... of course, there can be circles in which people have more confidence and are able to show more enthusiasm.. but normies seem to have a lot of reluctancies to really buckle into a long term investment plan that includes bitcoin as one of the components.. whether that is a low allocation such as 1% of their total quasi-liquid investment portfolio or something more aggressive up to 25%.

Maybe my recent interactions are skewing my judgement a bit, because I know that between late 2015 and early 2019, I had quite a few more interactions with people who were more apparently inwardly motivated towards establishing and maintaining a longer term investment thesis in bitcoin, and some of those people were already somewhat predispositioned towards bitcoin by the time that I had spoken with them as compared with folks who seem to be getting a vast majority of information from me or from the contrasting misinformation that they seem to be getting off of mainstream media sources.

Agreed in a more general way, the concept of along term investment is that long term definition has turned into a couple of years where I would go further and say it’s at minimum 10yrs to 30yrs. It almost lines up to a mortgage term and that’s how I see long term in any investment. In relation to btc and the first ones in is there any on chain data would could get a gauge on how much stuck to at least 10yrs holding.

yeah 10 to 20 is likely proper thought pattern here.
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January 23, 2023, 11:44:58 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Your choice of course, and surely it is likely that some guys and gal will likely get worried about receiving a mindrust treatment when they share too much that is contrary to what many of us consider to be best practices.  As you likely realize, I prefer to speak in terms of hypotheticals, yet of course, some of my assertions describe how great life is going and blah blah blah, so maybe a little more complaining might be in order? even for yours truly?


No mindrusting here
But the powder was too damp
I made no killing



#haiku

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January 24, 2023, 12:01:21 AM


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January 24, 2023, 01:01:17 AM


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JayJuanGee
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January 24, 2023, 01:35:38 AM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), d_eddie (1)

There was one other guy who was always interested and would ask me about it every time I saw him but I don't think he bought.  It was always too expensive.  I just ran into him a week ago and we chatted for a bit - I told him the bottom was likely in and this was a good time to start if he hadn't already - he smiled and gave me the thumbs up so maybe he's already started and just being tight-lipped about it?  Okay, I'm just being hopeful... they're all still nocoiners Sad 

Don't we all have friends IRL in the real world like this?  It seems that I have pretty good lines to suggest that any of their hesitations about bitcoin have to do with position size and not about whether... so if they are so damned skeptical about bitcoin, then just limit their position size to 1% rather than a more aggressive size, such as 25%.. but hey.. there are so many folks like this who are just planning to stay on the sidelines and they are ready to tell us later that they tried to warn us.. but part of the problem for them is that the day for "I told you so" never comes because even when the BTC price dips extremely, the longer that any of us HODLers have been in, the further and further the crash price is away from our average cost per BTC.... which causes a lot of these folks skepticism regarding if the BTC price has gone up so much, then how could it continue to go up? 

Some of them will get in below $100k, but some are going to have to buy higher.. while kicking and screaming the whole time, I guess.  We can ONLY do so much in terms of spreading the word, planting the seed, and just allowing them to figure out when to get in.. and maybe something really catastrophic has to happen... Maybe if it were easier, and maybe if there were bitcoin meet-ups several times a week amongst their social circles?  I am not sure what it takes, exactly?  There are some folks who end up getting in during price rise periods, and it seems that more people get in while the BTC price is going up rather than when it is coming down or when it is in dip locations like it is in currently, and then some of those people who end up getting in on the way up will develop conviction.. Each cycle we have a bunch of these people, but it seems to be difficult to claim credit for the getting in of any of them in real life.. .



Thank you for your support homer.

I am quite confident that your daily coffee and McMuffin (with real egg) is surely helping the cause of the normie Mickey Dee worker who is struggling to actually make it..and to transition into dee cornz.

Japan PM says country on the brink over falling birth rate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-64373950
Happy to be of assistance to about 100,000 21-25 year old Japanese females.

Just don't expect any child support.  Cheesy

Wow.. that's going to keep you busy BB.

Maybe what?  5-10 per day?

That is 10,000 to 20,000 days.. which would be 27 to 54 years of full time (everyday work) to get through the first round (not counting any second dips).

You might not have time for anything else.  Hopefully you don't need to work and you will be able to support yourself on passive income during that time?  Are you going to need financial donations?  I feel bad for you to be volunteering for such a project... I guess it's the nice guy deep within you?  You might even have to give up your lame arm-chair politics, too?  but that should improve your moods.  hahahahaha
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January 24, 2023, 02:01:17 AM


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bitcoin retard


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January 24, 2023, 02:27:10 AM
Last edit: January 24, 2023, 02:49:31 AM by Gachapin
Merited by vapourminer (1), d_eddie (1)

Japan PM says country on the brink over falling birth rate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-64373950

Happy to be of assistance to about 100,000 21-25 year old Japanese females.

Just don't expect any child support.  Cheesy


This will be the fate of many countries with a financial system based on growth. Unlimited growth is not possible in a limited world. Populations will shrink and the rental systems (yeah, some countries have such things) will collapse. Some countries try to delay this system collapse with immigration, but this creates other problems.

I suspect the climate change restrictions we will face are just an excuse for this population growth problem.

I could be wrong, and these are not my ideas... but afaik the growth of a financial system is based on the value and number of products that are produced.
And theoretically it seems actually possible to have an (almost) unlimited growth in products as many products aren't physical (software, "ideas", strategies and so on).
Many of the top companies in the world are selling non-physical products.
We can already see how software products are taking a bigger part in the economy every day. And in the near future some of them won't be even developed by humans but by AI
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January 24, 2023, 02:30:21 AM
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All there is to life
Hundred thousand cute bunnies
Japan hamster wheel



#haiku
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January 24, 2023, 02:31:03 AM
Merited by philipma1957 (1)

Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022:

1. 7 MA crossing 25 MA.
2. Bitcoin broke the resistance trendline.
3. End of Bear Market, bottom is in.


pls don't jinx it  Cheesy
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January 24, 2023, 02:33:37 AM

Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022:

1. 7 MA crossing 25 MA.
2. Bitcoin broke the resistance trendline.
3. End of Bear Market, bottom is in.


pls don't jinx it  Cheesy

oh really?? More time to buy at cheap if I jinxed it. 😂
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January 24, 2023, 02:40:29 AM
Last edit: January 24, 2023, 03:52:33 AM by Gachapin
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

#Bitcoin is the best performing asset in the world this year, according to latest data by Goldman Sachs

https://twitter.com/home?utm_source=homescreen&utm_medium=shortcut

I guess the serious investors won't ignore this obvious fact. If an asset during his bear cycle is outperforming the other assets by a lot, it is a no-brainer where they should put some money. So, even with the lack of good news and with a low volume BTC could stabilize around 30K this year and 40K next year.

Yes, BTC is the best performing asset to hold (that's why I'm 95% in), but isn't this comparison is a bit cherry picked ?  We are only 3 weeks into the year and just had a mini bullrun out of the lows in this time frame...


edit:
the link isn't working
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January 24, 2023, 02:55:33 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

#Bitcoin is the best performing asset in the world this year, according to latest data by Goldman Sachs

https://twitter.com/home?utm_source=homescreen&utm_medium=shortcut

I guess the serious investors won't ignore this obvious fact. If an asset during his bear cycle is outperforming the other assets by a lot, it is a no-brainer where they should put some money. So, even with the lack of good news and with a low volume BTC could stabilize around 30K this year and 40K next year.

Yes, BTC is the best performing asset to hold (that's why I'm 98% in), but isn't this comparison is a bit cherry picked ?  We are only 3 weeks into the year and just had a mini bullrun out of the lows in this time frame...


Look this could simply be a July 2019 move. Which means lots of down time for a while.

Or maybe it is simply going back to a nice level for mining.

A big farm with 5 cent power and 25 watt gear.  And debt along with overhead of building workers maintenance  was in serious trouble a while back.


100 th made 6 usd  a day. burns   80kwatts or 4 usd at five cent power.  nets 2 dollar a unit but then add in building cost, loans ,salaries ,gear maintenance they were under water.

they kind of needed 4 cent power or no loans.


same 5 cent power setup today makes 7.87 a day burns 4 dollars  nets 3.87 per unit  before all other costs.


10000 units is 38,700 a day vs 20,000 a day.

10000 units could have cost 60 million or maybe as low as 15million

38,700 a day = 14,125,500 a year. vs 7,300,000 a year.

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January 24, 2023, 03:01:20 AM


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