Leverage is short again (
51/49) which is promising for an eventual short squeeze even if price is to go lower. I'd be worried if this correction was leading to the market being over-leveraged long. Personally I'd prefer a bear trap towards the $21K area where price saw initial consolidation. Golden cross (circled) due to confirm tomorrow which should generate some "blind buying" in near future. Daily RSI has cooled off now and currently testing bullish level at 60. Definitely some bearish divergence on higher time-frames but the bearish correction could have already played out it seems.
Not convinced we'll be testing the 200 Day MA around $19.7K anymore. Many who have been around since 2019 know that a re-test of this moving average in order to turn it into support (post bear market bottom) isn't as necessary as many would like to believe. The irony being that in 2019 the 200 DMA was trending downwards still (bearish) so arguably was more likely for a re-test compared to this time around as it's flat (neutral).
I otherwise genuinely believe we are approximately where the green arrow is (time-wise) or at least entering this area, towards the end of consolidation similar to April 2019. ie currently breaking the 20 Day MA (orange line) for a bear trap. Back then the consolidation lasted approximately 4 weeks, and since the pump to $21K we are entering the 4th week of consolidation. Quite possibly, the final week.
I also realise many people are speculating already that this is the case, but it seems most are still bearish that price will inevitably re-test $20K levels before moving higher, or we'll make new lows. Everyone is otherwise forgetting that Bitcoin has
so far performed much better in the current bear market (% decline wise) within the inflationary macro environment, than previous bear markets of 2018 or 2014.
They still say inflation is bad for Bitcoin, but nobody cares to explain why 14-15 months after ATH, Bitcoin's price has dropped considerably less (-77%) than previous bear markets (-83%). I'm otherwise ignoring the short-term noise, as price remains firmly within the accumulation/distribution level around $23K. I'ts already starting to look like another bull flag breakdown without bearish continuation.
Poll
