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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26390013 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Gachapin
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January 21, 2023, 03:58:25 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1), ivomm (1)

If I have to describe in one sentence the price action in 2019 and 2020 it would be "The battle for 10K" "The Vegeta battle".

.. that shit really left a trauma in my psyche


I'm just curious which will be the new 10K for 2023 and 2024 - 30K, 40K or even 50K? My guess is 40K.

same
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January 21, 2023, 03:59:50 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (2), Torque (1), ivomm (1)

If I have to describe in one sentence the price action in 2019 and 2020 it would be "The battle for 10K". I'm just curious which will be the new 10K for 2023 and 2024 - 30K, 40K or even 50K? My guess is 40K.

It might be totally different this time, though.
I occasionally try to think about what we haven't seen (yet) and which one of those possible scenarios will be playing out.
Last bottom was $4k-ish, this one $16k-ish, so interpolating the $10k battle based on these numbers, $40k seems valid as rough estimate.
BUT we don't go up in a linear way, the 3rd bottom, seen in reverse timeline from now, was more or less ar $300.
x12, x4, x would translate roughly into about x1.5 for the next "multiplier", which projects a "battle for $25k" IF things continue as they turned in the past.
S-curve would be the no1 exception, bringing us to at least $250k next cylcle ATH areas, no or very short "battle for (roughly) $70k" (you know that number), followed by a yet unseen, consistent run up. And that would be only the beginning, since we would have just passed the flattest part of the S-curve in the last few years.

#NFA
#NFE
#iactuallysuckatmathstoo

The price was $2000 lower 24 hours ago...  Grin

Can’t believe we were at $16,xxx last month. I bought a handful in that range but sat on a pile of fiat waiting for lower. Feel like a bit of a moron now but it is what it is. I have enough bitcoin, was being greedy but greed is good sometimes Sad

IIRC, didn't you unload at about $65k and got it all in at $16-$20k again?
You can still buy little by little on the early up. You know the game  Grin
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January 21, 2023, 04:01:15 PM
Merited by jojo69 (1), ivomm (1)

If I have to describe in one sentence the price action in 2019 and 2020 it would be "The battle for 10K". I'm just curious which will be the new 10K for 2023 and 2024 - 30K, 40K or even 50K? My guess is 40K.

My guess is $29,900 will become the new $9,900.

It'll go sideways for what seems like forever, occasionally teasing > $30k only to get squashed down over again and again.  Roll Eyes

But it'll still be a good thing, because On Like Donkey Kong.
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January 21, 2023, 04:01:17 PM


Explanation
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January 21, 2023, 04:04:41 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Torque (1)

Are we Bulls again?
Short-term I'm not convinced this bounce will create a new high. Closing the day above $21.3K could change my mind though, as this would be above the previous highest close of November. Likewise closing the week above $20.9K would also achieve this same affect as this was previous highest weekly close. At least now after some consolidation there's room for the Daily RSI to return to 90 in the $22K-$23K range it seems.

For the immediate term I'm back to being neutral while price consolidates between $20.5K and $21.5K. I think that's the sensible/conservative approach for the moment. Still only looking for a(nother) short-term short position though while price remains overbought, but clearly not while price is moving back to the upside. Correction to around $19.5K before further upside would be healthiest scenario imo.

Your post did not age too well, so hopefully, you did not put too much on that short. Otherwise you will end up in the gutters with TrustedBitcoiner.. and will any of us HODLers remember who you were, once?

Well the move did take me by surprise, can't argue there. Was only eyeing up another short as I said but it didn't present itself, price just kept on moving upwards. The irony being that I did scalp a long trade from $20.8K but took profits too early. Not convinced I was too much off the mark though, I saw the possibility of price reaching $22K to $23K if there was to be no rejection back at the highs - and bingo.

Now it's time to scalp some long trades I think. If price comes back down to $21.5K that will be one hell of an entry for a swing trade imo though.

If I have to describe in one sentence the price action in 2019 and 2020 it would be "The battle for 10K". I'm just curious which will be the new 10K for 2023 and 2024 - 30K, 40K or even 50K? My guess is 40K.

Mine too re: $40K. My 2019 "$6K previous support turned resistance" price would be around $30K, for obvious reasons. A level that will now likely be broken with ease due to lack of volume traded there compared to lower levels, likewise with $25K. One thing I am liking is how little supply there is available on exchanges. Yesterdays 7% move was considerably less volume than the 5% daily moves previously.  We're back in relatively low volume territory again now it seems. Profit taking aside, there aren't many left who will be selling at a loss. With $19K to $21.5K accumulation zone cleared the hard part is already done.
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January 21, 2023, 04:05:36 PM
Merited by Torque (1)

If I have to describe in one sentence the price action in 2019 and 2020 it would be "The battle for 10K". I'm just curious which will be the new 10K for 2023 and 2024 - 30K, 40K or even 50K? My guess is 40K.

My guess is $29,900 will become the new $9,900.

It'll go sideways for what seems like forever, teasing > $30k only to get squashed down over again and again.  Roll Eyes

But it'll still be a good thing, because On Like Donkey Kong.

Hmm, we're already at $23k. I'm really curious if, when and at which price-range "the battle" will play out, it might give a good hint ot two about where we will be heading in 2024/25.

...

The last "final capitulation" move was really obvious and easy to observe.
Several OG WO's did mark the bottom after that.
You can be fooled the most by your own eyes and mind. I won't name eXPHorizon as an extreme example for proof of this thesis  Cheesy

EDIT: Well, you also know King Daddy could make me look like a clown by sending us to $10k tomorrow...  Tongue
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January 21, 2023, 04:11:49 PM
Last edit: January 21, 2023, 04:25:15 PM by Torque
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

If I have to describe in one sentence the price action in 2019 and 2020 it would be "The battle for 10K". I'm just curious which will be the new 10K for 2023 and 2024 - 30K, 40K or even 50K? My guess is 40K.

My guess is $29,900 will become the new $9,900.

It'll go sideways for what seems like forever, teasing > $30k only to get squashed down over again and again.  Roll Eyes

But it'll still be a good thing, because On Like Donkey Kong.

Hmm, we're already at $23k. I'm really curious if, when and at which price-range "the battle" will play out, it might give a good hint ot two about where we will be heading in 2024/25.

Yeah we're at $23k already, but it's straight up. I feel like this is just whales coming back into a market they completely dropped out of in November, pumping major leverage back into the float and squeezing short positions. The volume is still quite low.

That is how it always starts anew, a big swing up, followed by a correction and then a ridiculous amount of sideways. Then they accumulate forever on sideways using leverage.

At least that's how Bitcoin bottom reversals always have been in the past. I'm doubting that it's "different this time."

But if it goes to ~$40k and settles there instead, I definitely won't be disappointed.  Cheesy
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January 21, 2023, 04:39:08 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

...

The last "final capitulation" move was really obvious and easy to observe.
Several OG WO's did mark the bottom after that.
You can be fooled the most by your own eyes and mind. I won't name eXPHorizon as an extreme example for proof of this thesis  Cheesy

Not that it has much relevance to current price above >$20K, but to be honest that "final capitulation" wasn't obvious to me what so ever. Once price had broken down to new lows I had very low confidence that the final low had been made until price got back above previous support around $19K. I'm not complaining I wasn't a buyer around $16K though, as buying +20% higher seems reasonable to me, especially now that price is up 20% from then and it still beats a DCA price from last June of $19.5K, or from May when price initially broke down from $30K which would be $20.9K, etc.

Obviously it's easy to look back and realise it was FTX-based panic selling style capitulation, but from a price-action perspective the chart looked bearish at the time and $10K to $14K looked increasingly likely once $17.5K had broken. For example if there wasn't that final capitulation, and price moved sideways between $19K and $21K until current break-out, I'm sure many would say that the low being in was obvious as well, because price had consolidated at the lows for 6+ months. My point is hindsight is great, but without hedge fund liquidations price could have even held $30K last year by the looks of it, as it had done so for 18 months already, and instead moved sideways for 6 months from there (to complete two years of consolidation) before returning to the upside.
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January 21, 2023, 04:44:18 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


But if it goes to ~$40k and settles there instead, I definitely won't be disappointed.  Cheesy
If this is the case, everyone will be happy and no one will be disappointed my mate  Grin, but I still have some doubts about the market cause It may also be a bull trap. But the greenish candles are giving also me great joy.
Another hope is that Bitcoin is now worth more than Bank of America and Morgan Stanley combined 🚀
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January 21, 2023, 04:47:24 PM
Merited by Torque (1)

If I have to describe in one sentence the price action in 2019 and 2020 it would be "The battle for 10K". I'm just curious which will be the new 10K for 2023 and 2024 - 30K, 40K or even 50K? My guess is 40K.

My guess is $29,900 will become the new $9,900.

It'll go sideways for what seems like forever, teasing > $30k only to get squashed down over again and again.  Roll Eyes

But it'll still be a good thing, because On Like Donkey Kong.

Hmm, we're already at $23k. I'm really curious if, when and at which price-range "the battle" will play out, it might give a good hint ot two about where we will be heading in 2024/25.

Yeah we're at $23k already, but it's straight up. I feel like this is just whales coming back into a market they completely dropped out of in November, pumping major leverage back into the float and squeezing short positions. The volume is still quite low.

Don't forget that any sellers between say $40K to $50K for example will be happy with anything between $20K to $25K. You're not going to be bothered about paying a premium for the week when you're doubling your Bitcoin stash. It's easy to think most already did this during the accumulation last year, but why buy then at current prices when price *could have* dropped even lower to quadruple your stash?

My point is while bear traders on leverage will be returning to a newly bullish volitile market to long it, there is also no doubt many who waited on the sidelines for well over a year to re-enter now doing so. I think this is really apparent from last weeks close, as investors weren't looking to wait for a correction after a 20% pump, they had been waiting for that kind of break-out to immediately enter. That's my opinion anyway.
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January 21, 2023, 04:59:04 PM
Merited by OutOfMemory (1)

IIRC, didn't you unload at about $65k and got it all in at $16-$20k again?
You can still buy little by little on the early up. You know the game  Grin

Sold between 58.3k & 65k. I started buying back at 31.8k all the way down to 16k. I just wanted to get back to a nice round number of bitcoin (my OCD wilding Cheesy). It would have been a lot easier under 16k haha.

I’m happy to pump hard this year, no problems.
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January 21, 2023, 05:01:17 PM


Explanation
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January 21, 2023, 05:23:38 PM

Good morning Bitcoinland. Another day another AYH.

Life is good. Thank you Bitcoin.


Bitcoin is on fire. Its at 23.2k right now and cruising towards 24k. My guess is Bitcoin first stop will be at 30k.
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January 21, 2023, 05:25:04 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

If I have to describe in one sentence the price action in 2019 and 2020 it would be "The battle for 10K". I'm just curious which will be the new 10K for 2023 and 2024 - 30K, 40K or even 50K? My guess is 40K.

Cycle low last time was around 3.2k, so 3x that was around 10k. Using 15k cycle low this time a 3x would be 45k. So I think it'll be the battle for 50k. Will be a nice set up for the next cycle post halving. 100k will fall ez
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January 21, 2023, 05:42:20 PM
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kA5Wc1_Zghk
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January 21, 2023, 05:49:06 PM


All this needs now is a Kiffness remix with the head-banging cat overlayed, and we'll have the new Bitcoin bull run theme song.  Grin
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January 21, 2023, 06:00:29 PM


Wow. 2.4 Million views in 14 years. 
The music brings nostalgic feelings of 90s, when apple and black berry were just fruits.
Thanks for sharing.
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January 21, 2023, 06:01:16 PM


Explanation
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January 21, 2023, 06:11:46 PM

ChatGPT struggling to predict BTC next ATH.

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January 21, 2023, 06:30:32 PM
Last edit: January 21, 2023, 06:44:16 PM by OutOfMemory

...

The last "final capitulation" move was really obvious and easy to observe.
Several OG WO's did mark the bottom after that.
You can be fooled the most by your own eyes and mind. I won't name eXPHorizon as an extreme example for proof of this thesis  Cheesy

Not that it has much relevance to current price above >$20K, but to be honest that "final capitulation" wasn't obvious to me what so ever. Once price had broken down to new lows I had very low confidence that the final low had been made until price got back above previous support around $19K. I'm not complaining I wasn't a buyer around $16K though, as buying +20% higher seems reasonable to me, especially now that price is up 20% from then and it still beats a DCA price from last June of $19.5K, or from May when price initially broke down from $30K which would be $20.9K, etc.

Obviously it's easy to look back and realise it was FTX-based panic selling style capitulation, but from a price-action perspective the chart looked bearish at the time and $10K to $14K looked increasingly likely once $17.5K had broken. For example if there wasn't that final capitulation, and price moved sideways between $19K and $21K until current break-out, I'm sure many would say that the low being in was obvious as well, because price had consolidated at the lows for 6+ months. My point is hindsight is great, but without hedge fund liquidations price could have even held $30K last year by the looks of it, as it had done so for 18 months already, and instead moved sideways for 6 months from there (to complete two years of consolidation) before returning to the upside.


Maybe i was looking too simple at things, but i don't do well in processing a lot of information.
Nevertheless, in a 4-year cycle manner, last ATH(s) were too early, last capitulation was in the mid of may 2018, so it felt about time that any major capitulation move, followed by strong "bitcoin is dead" sentiments, Saylor and Bukele no more buying... All of this (and more) fit together in my point of view. Thus, "unbreakable" support over $15k seemed reasonable enough for me to mark the bottom. I don't want to sound overly critical, regarding your way of looking at the market, but $10k, for example would have been way too big of a retrace then the globally expected 80% down, which also supported my feelings about bottom regards.

As you said, buying at $20k wasn't too bad either. I was out of free money for a while, which set back my buying plans a little, but i'm still satisfied.
At next ATH we will have forgotten our debate about this, anyway  Cheesy


ChatGPT struggling to predict BTC next ATH.

Yesterday, i read that ChatGPT is from Microsoft, so i don't wonder too much that it can't predict this. Wink
It can, however, gather, connect and combine a lot of information and also express it quite well. Kudos for that.

EDIT: Just checked back on OpenAI history, and in fact it's not "from Microsoft" at all, besides that $1bn investment back in 2019.
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